A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Gee715]

I think the Sox bullpen could end up being one of their strengths. I don't necessarily agree with all of this:

https://soxsphere.com/2018/01/19/arms-race-red-sox-bullpen-ready-to-go/

 

But just one of Smith/Thornburg/Kelly needs to fill in the 8th inning role and everyone else will fall in behind them

[moonslav59]

For those years, sign me up.

 

Id prefer that over a $25mill 36yo JD Martinez. (Imagine if he ages like Hanley, who isn't 36 for 22 more months)...

 

If he "aged like HRam", he'd have already been showing signs of decline.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox bullpen could end up being one of their strengths. I don't necessarily agree with all of this:

https://soxsphere.com/2018/01/19/arms-race-red-sox-bullpen-ready-to-go/

 

But just one of Smith/Thornburg/Kelly needs to fill in the 8th inning role and everyone else will fall in behind them

 

Assuming normal health, I think our pen is a strength. We are strong and deep.

 

Closer: Kimbrel

2. Smith

3. Thornburg

4. Kelly

5. Barnes

6. Scott

7. Hembree (out of options)

8. Wright (when ERod returns to the rotation)

9. Workman (AAA)

10. Maddox (AAA)

11. Taylor (AAA)

12. Martin/Buttrey/Poyner/Jerez/Cuevas (AAA)

Converted starters? Johnson, Velazquez, Elias, Beeks, Shepherd, Shawaryn & Haley

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2014-2017 Power Leaders (1500+ PAs)

 

ISO

4. JD Martinez .274

13. L. Duda .242

24. J Abreu .224

26. Frazier .221

30. Machado .213

40. B. Belt .206

46. Moustakas .201

53. L. Morrison .196

 

SLG

2. JD Martinez .574

13. J. Abreu .524

27. Machado .492

33. L Duda .480

41. B Belt .471

51. Frazier .464

57. Moustakas .459

87. Morrison .438

 

I'm still thinking, if we go for a pitcher, instead of JD, Lucas Duda might be an inexpensive power addition to our roster.

 

2017 only (450+ PAs)

 

ISO

1. JD .387

10. Duda .279

15. Morrison .270

28. Morrison .249

29. J Abreu .248

 

SLG

1. JD .690

15. Abreu .552

33. Moose .521

36. Morrison .516

50. L Duda .496

 

 

Edited January 21, 2018 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Jd’s bat speed is already showing signs of slowing down.

 

We need more pitching, just pass on bad hitter contracts.

[notin]

If he "aged like HRam", he'd have already been showing signs of decline.

 

Hanley had an OPS+ of 189 when he was JD's age last year...

[moonslav59]

Jd’s bat speed is already showing signs of slowing down.

 

 

It is?

 

I wish the rest of the Sox could "slow" their bats down like JD's.

[moonslav59]

Hanley had an OPS+ of 189 when he was JD's age last year...

 

You mean his half season in 2013?

 

The trend comps are night and day.

 

OPS+ (* 105 or less games played)

Age HRam JD

26 126 154

27 95* 139

28 105 142

29 189* 166

30 132 ?

31 89* ?

32 126 ?

33 95 ?

 

JD has been consistently between 139 and 166 for 4 straight years.

 

HRam has been a yo-yo.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Jd’s bat speed is already showing signs of slowing down.

 

He just had the best season of his career. He had 29 homers in 62 games with Arizona. How are we supposed to even take you seriously with statements like this?

[mvp 78]

He just had the best season of his career. He had 29 homers in 62 games with Arizona. How are we supposed to even take you seriously with statements like this?

 

People take him seriously?

[moonslav59]

He just had the best season of his career. He had 29 homers in 62 games with Arizona. How are we supposed to even take you seriously with statements like this?

 

Plus, he's had an OPS+ of over 139 for 4 straight seasons!

[moonslav59]

Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.

[notin]

Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.

 

While I'm not wild about it, until he signs elsewhere, you really can't take Hosmer off the Plan B list. ..

[notin]

Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.

 

While I'm not wild about it, until he signs elsewhere, you really can't take Hosmer off the Plan B list. ..

[oldtimer]

Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.

 

I noticed that. I would expect our options will narrow significantly if we wait for JD and then are unsuccessful.

[moonslav59]

While I'm not wild about it, until he signs elsewhere, you really can't take Hosmer off the Plan B list. ..

 

Not on my list.

 

I'd add Moustakas, Nunez, Duda and maybe more before I make Hosmer my option B.

[moonslav59]

I noticed that. I would expect our options will narrow significantly if we wait for JD and then are unsuccessful.

 

I'm hopeful DD has 2-3 other options in mind, and when those start to sign or are close to signing, he'll give Boras/JD a timed ultimatum.

[harmony]

I'm hopeful DD has 2-3 other options in mind, and when those start to sign or are close to signing, he'll give Boras/JD a timed ultimatum.

If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."

[moonslav59]

If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."

 

Yes, that could happen, too.

 

Hopefully, we don't get caught without an good option B, if we miss out on JD, but I can't see DD letting that happen.

 

Something will happen soon.

[moonslav59]

Giants sign Austin Jackson ($6M).

 

I doubt they are in the hunt for JD.

 

Who is left?

 

BOS

 

AZ

 

TOR

[Bellhorn04]

Giants sign Austin Jackson ($6M).

 

I doubt they are in the hunt for JD.

 

Who is left?

 

BOS

 

AZ

 

TOR

 

Hard to see the Jays in on him when they're going to be paying $23 million to Donaldson - who also says he's open to an extension with them.

[moonslav59]

Hard to see the Jays in on him when they're going to be paying $23 million to Donaldson - who also says he's open to an extension with them.

 

I can't see AZ topping $100M/5, so how can they come close to $125M?

 

I'm thinking we are by ourselves. I hope DD doesn't bid against himself. We seemed 6to plan our luxury tax reset just right, and this is the opportunity to capitalize on the fact that NY and LA are not in the heavy bidding wars.

 

We will likely not be able to sign big next winter, so this is it.

[cp176]

Boston and Arizona - it is all a load of crap at this point. Hey - maybe JD is prepared to sit the season out if he isn't offered what he thinks that he is worth. Just kidding there.

[moonslav59]

I'll be mildly shocked, if we don't sign JD.

 

I doubt he gets more than $125M/5 or $135M/6

[Kimmi]

If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."

 

If JD has a better offer from another team, I wish Boras would give the Red Sox a timed ultimatum. Dombrowski should already know whether he wants to beat the other offer or not, so what would he be waiting for? Of course, I do not believe there is a better offer.

[cp176]

If JD has a better offer from another team, I wish Boras would give the Red Sox a timed ultimatum. Dombrowski should already know whether he wants to beat the other offer or not, so what would he be waiting for? Of course, I do not believe there is a better offer.

 

I agree with you. I do not think that they have any other offer of substance and at some point it just looks to be a little too much like just good old fashioned greed to me. I would be very tempted if I were the organization to move away from him.

[Kimmi]

I agree with you. I do not think that they have any other offer of substance and at some point it just looks to be a little too much like just good old fashioned greed to me. I would be very tempted if I were the organization to move away from him.

 

If we could get a solid starter and Morrison instead, I'm all in.

[a700hitter]

If we could get a solid starter and Morrison instead, I'm all in.

Upgrade the pitcher, but Morrison is not enough of an upgrade.

[moonslav59]

Upgrade the pitcher, but Morrison is not enough of an upgrade.

 

Big if, but if LoMo could hit 38 HRs again in 2018, it would be an inexpensive but significant upgrade.

[notin]

If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."

 

Because Boras has clearly been in a hurry so far this off-season...