A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[notin]

Giants sign Austin Jackson ($6M).

 

I doubt they are in the hunt for JD.

 

Who is left?

 

BOS

 

AZ

 

TOR

 

I don't think they signed Jackson to start. He's the type of fourth outfielder the Sox should be looking for.

 

(Although if I'm Austin Jackson, I sign with SF long before I think about Boston. Much easier outfield to get a starting job in.)

[Larry Cook]

Giants sign Austin Jackson ($6M).

 

I doubt they are in the hunt for JD.

 

Who is left?

 

BOS

 

AZ

 

TOR

 

The talking heads on mlb now said they think Toronto is out.

[cp176]

It's been about Boston and Arizona in reality all the time. Boston and Arizona repeat - I really wish that dd would go in a different direction. Let Martinez take less to stay and play where he wants to. Screw him - He is not worth the $ he seeks but none of them in reality are.

[Bellhorn04]

If we could get a solid starter and Morrison instead, I'm all in.

 

Which 'solid starter' though? All there seems to be is Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb. Darvish is looking for a big deal. Arrieta is another Boras client looking for about the same AAV as JDM. That leaves Cobb. I think Cobb might be an OK choice but everyone seems to think he's a huge health risk.

 

[moonslav59]

I don't think they signed Jackson to start. He's the type of fourth outfielder the Sox should be looking for.

 

(Although if I'm Austin Jackson, I sign with SF long before I think about Boston. Much easier outfield to get a starting job in.)

 

Word is, SF is looking to stay under the luxury limit, and their about $2M under right now, so unless they cut salary somehow, I don't see them in on JD.

[moonslav59]

It's been about Boston and Arizona in reality all the time. Boston and Arizona repeat - I really wish that dd would go in a different direction. Let Martinez take less to stay and play where he wants to. Screw him - He is not worth the $ he seeks but none of them in reality are.

 

While I don't disagree, JD won't get the money he wants, so if we can get him for what think he's worth, I'm not for giving up on signing him, at this point.

[notin]

Which 'solid starter' though? All there seems to be is Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb. Darvish is looking for a big deal. Arrieta is another Boras client looking for about the same AAV as JDM. That leaves Cobb. I think Cobb might be an OK choice but everyone seems to think he's a huge health risk.

 

 

Only because he gets hurt all the time...

[moonslav59]

Which 'solid starter' though? All there seems to be is Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb. Darvish is looking for a big deal. Arrieta is another Boras client looking for about the same AAV as JDM. That leaves Cobb. I think Cobb might be an OK choice but everyone seems to think he's a huge health risk.

 

 

It's not like Cobb is Buch or something.

 

Yes, 6 starts from 2015 to 2016 looks horrible, but the years surrounding those were not too bad.

 

GS'd

23 in 2012

22 in 2013

27 in 2014

29 in 2017

 

(FYI, Buch had over 21 ML starts three time in 11 years.)

[notin]

Word is, SF is looking to stay under the luxury limit, and their about $2M under right now, so unless they cut salary somehow, I don't see them in on JD.

 

Me neither. Although if I'm Peter Bourjos' agent, I'm calling right now.

 

More likely they will try to move one of their contract players for another outfielder under contract. A trade of Mark Melancon (4 years $62mill) for Juan Lagares (4 years $23mill) would improve their OF and buy them some wiggle room, and actually make sense for both teams. They might also try to move Joe Panik someplace for a cheaper OF who is better than Jackson. (Panik to Mil for Keon Broxton?)

 

But unless they can move Cueto or Samardzija, I don't see them in on Martinez...

Edited January 24, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

But unless they can move Cueto or Samardzija, I don't see them in on Martinez...

 

HRam and Porcello for both of them?

 

(LOL)

[a700hitter]

But unless they can move Cueto or Samardzija, I don't see them in on Martinez...

 

HRam and Porcello for both of them?

 

(LOL)

I'd do it.

[notin]

I'd do it.

 

SF likely wouldn't.

 

No need for HanRam and it only saves them about $2.3mill per year AAV.

 

And makes them a worse team...

[moonslav59]

SF likely wouldn't.

 

No need for HanRam and it only saves them about $2.3mill per year AAV.

 

And makes them a worse team...

 

It was meant as a joke, but I'd give them $5M for 2018 and then again in 2019 plus give them Johnson and a couple non top prospects.

[harmony]

It was meant as a joke, but I'd give them $5M for 2018 and then again in 2019 plus give them Johnson and a couple non top prospects.

If we're joking today, would the Red Sox trade 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson to Seattle for the minor league contract of 31-year-old second baseman Gordon Beckham, a former first-round draft pick who in 2009 peaked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list?

 

Johnson, who shut out the Mariners last May, would be reunited with catcher Mike Zunino, his college battery-mate at the University of Florida.

 

I guess Beckham would need to consent to the trade because he signed a second minor league contract with Seattle on December 12.

Edited January 24, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

If we're joking today, would the Red Sox trade 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson to Seattle for the minor league contract of 31-year-old second baseman Gordon Beckham, a former first-round draft pick who in 2009 peaked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list?

 

Johnson, who shut out the Mariners last May, would be reunited with catcher Mike Zunino, his college battery-mate at the University of Florida.

 

I guess Beckham would need to consent to the trade because he signed a second minor league contract with Seattle on December 12.

 

That may not be too far out of line with the offers the Sox are receiving, which is why they still have Johnson...

[Kimmi]

Upgrade the pitcher, but Morrison is not enough of an upgrade.

 

Morrison plus the offensive upgrade that will be coming from within. Plus the upgrade in pitching. It would be enough.

[Kimmi]

Which 'solid starter' though? All there seems to be is Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb. Darvish is looking for a big deal. Arrieta is another Boras client looking for about the same AAV as JDM. That leaves Cobb. I think Cobb might be an OK choice but everyone seems to think he's a huge health risk.

 

 

That's a good question Bell. I don't really have a good answer.

[notin]

That's a good question Bell. I don't really have a good answer.

 

The most underrated of the bunch is probably Francisco Liriano, who has been worth 5.0 fWAR over the past 3 seasons (which is more Lance Lynn and more than double Alex Cobb in the same timeframe).

 

However, Liriano is 34 years old and not likely improving much. Although his limited action last year (97 IP) might have helped some wear and tear on the arm. He also has a long history of control issues, and the Sox might not be too keen on another LHSP.

 

Andrew Cashner (4.5 fWAR) and Jeremy Hellickson (4.4 fWAR) are RHSP options. Cashner is the only one of the three whose fWAR total isn't largely carried by one season...

[Bellhorn04]

The most underrated of the bunch is probably Francisco Liriano, who has been worth 5.0 fWAR over the past 3 seasons (which is more Lance Lynn and more than double Alex Cobb in the same timeframe).

 

However, Liriano is 34 years old and not likely improving much. Although his limited action last year (97 IP) might have helped some wear and tear on the arm. He also has a long history of control issues, and the Sox might not be too keen on another LHSP.

 

Andrew Cashner (4.5 fWAR) and Jeremy Hellickson (4.4 fWAR) are RHSP options. Cashner is the only one of the three whose fWAR total isn't largely carried by one season...

 

I'm not sure any of those 3 are what Kimmi had in mind for a 'solid' starter.

[notin]

I'm not sure any of those 3 are what Kimmi had in mind for a 'solid' starter.

 

Actually Cashner might not be a bad 5th starter.

 

He's done a reasonable job maintaining his velocity over the past 4 years, although its nowhere near where it used to be. He's been maintaining ground ball rates and his HR/9 plummeted last year, which, if it isn't an aberration, is certainly a good sign. That his infield fly percentage shot up might be a good indication he has learned how to pitch up in the zone like Lester used to.

 

He is, however, an unexciting addition. But the exciting ones are very expensive and probably not going to be worth it...

[mvp 78]

If we're joking today, would the Red Sox trade 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson to Seattle for the minor league contract of 31-year-old second baseman Gordon Beckham, a former first-round draft pick who in 2009 peaked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list?

 

Johnson, who shut out the Mariners last May, would be reunited with catcher Mike Zunino, his college battery-mate at the University of Florida.

 

I guess Beckham would need to consent to the trade because he signed a second minor league contract with Seattle on December 12.

He’s not enough of an upgrade from the backup 2bs they already have.

[moonslav59]

He’s not enough of an upgrade from the backup 2bs they already have.

 

He's not even an upgrade. He's one more added to the pile.

[a700hitter]

He's not even an upgrade. He's one more added to the pile.

If the pile is garbage.

[Natick to NC]

What's clay up to ? I wonder if we could catch lightning in a bottle now that he's healthy ? 2 year 6 mill

[Bellhorn04]

What's clay up to ? I wonder if we could catch lightning in a bottle now that he's healthy ? 2 year 6 mill

 

Yeah I was thinking about him too.

[notin]

I'd have no problem if they brought Clay back, but 1 year is preferable to two. ..

[mvp 78]

What's clay up to ? I wonder if we could catch lightning in a bottle now that he's healthy ? 2 year 6 mill

 

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[mvp 78]

Yeah I was thinking about him too.

 

Don't you start that.

[mvp 78]

I'd have no problem if they brought Clay back, but 1 year is preferable to two. ..

 

0 years. I wouldn't even want him back for a 1 day contract to retire as a Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

If the pile is garbage.

 

It's a pile of decent back-ups. None can be projected as plus starters. They are place holders for Pedey.

 

Marco Hernandez: He seems like he has the "inside edge" on the opening day starter's job, but certainly is not a lock. He only has 84 innings at 2B at the ML level. He's played less than 10% of his innings at 2B in the minors. One would think a capable SS would be fine, defensively, at 2B, but his defensive metrics in those 84 innings are horrible (-28.7 UZR/150 and -2 DRS). His bat appears to project better than any of the competition. .284 BA/ .328 OBP in 116 ML PAs and .292/.324 in 427 PAs at AAA.

 

Brock Holt: I've always felt 2B was the only position Brock was a plus on defense, and the metrics back that position up: +7.1 UZR/150 and + 5 DRS in 746 innings at 2B. For a long time Brock kept his OPS over .700 (just barely) vs LHPs and RHPs. That's very good...for a sub. The concussion messed him up badly, but there is hope he can return to 2014-2016 form of .274 BA/.335 OBP/.381 SLG/.716. OPS. If he can give us +7 UZR and a .715 OPS, he'd be near a plus compared to the rest of the league's 2Bmen. The league 2B OPS has been between .700 and .750 since 2014. The +7 UZR/150 would make Holt a clear average (at worst) 2Bman. That's the optimist view. We all know how bad he can look as well.

 

Deven Marrero: He's out of options, so he may make the 25 man roster, if only to keep depth in the system. He's pretty much all glove and no bat, but he's really be quite decent vs LHPs, fueled by a .430 SLG%. His OPS vs LHPs is .710, but it is .487 vs RHPs. Some sort of platoon might work out for Deven. His UZR/150 at 2B (9.0) is almost as good as Pedey's (10.9).

 

Tzu-Wei Lin: He is largely an unknown who put up a .709 OPS in just 66 PAs last year. In 44 innings at 2B, last year, he pout up an amazing +30.7 UZR/150 (+1 DRS). His .602 OPS at AAA (154 PAs) and .580 OPS at AA (411 PAs) makes one wonder about his chances at winning the 2B jon, let alone a 25 man roster spot, especially with so many out-of-options bubble players.

 

Esteban Quiroz: Another largely unknown talent. He put up very good numbers in the Mexican League by never having a BA below .293 or an OPS below .845. He's the wild card in the group. Many consider the Mexican League to be similar to AAA, so maybe this kid has a real shot. In 2016, he hit .335/.449/.522/.971!

 

Blake Swihart & Michael Chavis: I don't see them as options at 2B.

 

Maybe someone from this group can rise and shine, but picking which one to give the first shot might not be easy. ST'ing will probably decide who starts and who makes the 25 man roster, but others might get a chance, if the first choice stumbles out of the gate. Hoiw long Pedey is out, and the threat of him never returning, is a dark cloud over our team. Having one of these guys come through would go a long way towards improving our odds at winning the division.

 

I'm hopeful but not really optimistic.