A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Then again he may hit the s*** out of the ball.

 

You do not know. No one does.

 

To be sure, he can't be any worse than Chris Young 2017 version. If they can stick with Young, even though he was toast, they can give Brentz an opportunity.

[mvp 78]

To be sure, he can't be any worse than Chris Young 2017 version. If they can stick with Young, even though he was toast, they can give Brentz an opportunity.

 

Can always trade for a 4th OF during the season.

[moonslav59]

OK, let's say that that one player the Red Sox are focused on is JD Martinez. Let's say the Red Sox sign him (for around J.Upton money) and L.Morrison. (1) The Red Sox wouldn't give up any draft picks. (2) The Red Sox would have the extra depth to block H.Ramirez's option. (3) The organization can handle one big contract (JD Martinez), maintaining enough flexibility for the Machado & Harper sweepstakes in next year's free agency. (4) As far as the lineup goes, I like the idea of giving Bradley a chance at leadoff with the hope that the spot will augment Bradley's OBP skills (increase his walk totals).

 

1b: Morrison/Ramirez

2b: Hernandez

SS: Bogaerts

3b: Devers

LF: Benintendi

CF: Bradley

RF: Betts

DH: Martinez

C: Vazquez

 

Lineup:

Bradley

Betts

Benintendi

Martinez

Morrison/Ramirez

Devers

Bogaerts

Hernandez

Vazquez

 

I think Bogey is better suited for lead-off.

 

If we sign JD and Morrison (assuming 2+ years), we will not likely have enough to sign Harper or Machado the following year unless we dump salary somehow.

 

I guess we could go over the second penalty level, but I doubt it.

 

Remember, the tax will also be higher in 2019 due to going over in 2018.

[oldtimer]

I think Bogey is better suited for lead-off.

 

If we sign JD and Morrison (assuming 2+ years), we will not likely have enough to sign Harper or Machado the following year unless we dump salary somehow.

 

I guess we could go over the second penalty level, but I doubt it.

 

Remember, the tax will also be higher in 2019 due to going over in 2018.

 

Cora has signaled that he wants to bat Betts first and Beni second for 2018. That may change as the season progresses.

 

It sounds like JD is looking for a 7 year commitment which I hope we have the sense to avoid. Five years would be a maximum and that would include a significant risk. I would prefer 4 years. If we can't make that happen, we should let the idea drop and see if anyone else wants to go that far out on a limb for JD. Nunez and Morrison would satisfy me with the possibility of going into 2019 with a big pickup in mind.

[moonslav59]

Cora has signaled that he wants to bat Betts first and Beni second for 2018. That may change as the season progresses.

 

It sounds like JD is looking for a 7 year commitment which I hope we have the sense to avoid. Five years would be a maximum and that would include a significant risk. I would prefer 4 years. If we can't make that happen, we should let the idea drop and see if anyone else wants to go that far out on a limb for JD. Nunez and Morrison would satisfy me with the possibility of going into 2019 with a big pickup in mind.

 

JD is not getting 7 years from anyone.

 

He may not even get 6. I'd offer $130M/5 with a $20M option for year 6 with a $5M buyout. So, basically it's...

 

$135M/5

 

or

 

$150M/6

 

[moonslav59]

Cora has signaled that he wants to bat Betts first and Beni second for 2018. That may change as the season progresses.

 

It sounds like JD is looking for a 7 year commitment which I hope we have the sense to avoid. Five years would be a maximum and that would include a significant risk. I would prefer 4 years. If we can't make that happen, we should let the idea drop and see if anyone else wants to go that far out on a limb for JD. Nunez and Morrison would satisfy me with the possibility of going into 2019 with a big pickup in mind.

 

I'd prefer Betts 2nd or 3rd, but if we get JD, I'm okay with the idea:

 

1) Betts RF

2) Beni LF

3) Bogey SSv LHPs/ HRam DH v RHPs

4) JD LF

5) Devers 3B vs RHPs/ HRam DH v LHPs

6) Bogey SS vs RHPs/ Devers 3B vs LHPs

7) Moreland 1B

8) Pedey/Hernandez 2B

9) Vaz C

 

(JBJ & Wright traded for a 3 slot SP'er)

 

[moonslav59]

vs RHPs

1) R Betts

2) L Beni

3) R JD M

4) L Devers

5) R HRam or L JBJ (if not traded)

6) L Moreland

7) R Bogey

8) R Pedey

9) R Vaz

 

vs LHPs

1) R Betts

2) R Bogey

3) R JD DH

4) R HRam 1B

5) L Devers

6) L Beni

7) R Pedey/Hernandez

8) L JBJ

9) R Vaz

[cp176]

Cora has signaled that he wants to bat Betts first and Beni second for 2018. That may change as the season progresses.

 

It sounds like JD is looking for a 7 year commitment which I hope we have the sense to avoid. Five years would be a maximum and that would include a significant risk. I would prefer 4 years. If we can't make that happen, we should let the idea drop and see if anyone else wants to go that far out on a limb for JD. Nunez and Morrison would satisfy me with the possibility of going into 2019 with a big pickup in mind.

 

I could be up for a little Nunez signing myself right about now.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Cora has signaled that he wants to bat Betts first and Beni second for 2018. That may change as the season progresses.

 

My updated lineup (assuming the Red Sox sign Martinez for DH):

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Martinez DH

Moreland/Ramirez 1b

Devers 3b

Bogaerts SS

Bradley CF

Hernandez 2b

Vazquez C

[moonslav59]

My updated lineup (assuming the Red Sox sign Martinez for DH):

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Martinez DH

Moreland/Ramirez 1b

Devers 3b

Bogaerts SS

Bradley CF

Hernandez 2b

Vazquez C

 

God! Stuck with HRam/Moreland in the 4 slot again !?!?!?!

 

What part of last year's 4 slot made DD want a repeat?

 

.240/.322/.423/.745

 

27 HRs and 93 RBIs weren't too bad, but we'll need much better in 2018.

[moonslav59]

My updated lineup (assuming the Red Sox sign Martinez for DH):

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Martinez DH

Moreland/Ramirez 1b

Devers 3b

Bogaerts SS

Bradley CF

Hernandez 2b

Vazquez C

 

I'd rather lengthen the line-up by batting Bogey 1st, even if just vs RHPs (maybe JBJ vs RHPs?)...

 

1) Bogey

2) Betts

3) Beni

4) JD

5) Devers

6) Moreland/HRam

7) JBJ/HRam

8) Pedey/Marco

9) Vaz

 

 

[oldtimer]

I'd prefer Betts 2nd or 3rd, but if we get JD, I'm okay with the idea:

 

1) Betts RF

2) Beni LF

3) Bogey SSv LHPs/ HRam DH v RHPs

4) JD LF

5) Devers 3B vs RHPs/ HRam DH v LHPs

6) Bogey SS vs RHPs/ Devers 3B vs LHPs

7) Moreland 1B

8) Pedey/Hernandez 2B

9) Vaz C

 

(JBJ & Wright traded for a 3 slot SP'er)

 

 

Betts

Beni

Nunez

JD

Devers

Hanley

Bogey

Moreland

Vazquez

 

Thats a lot of fire power but probably can't happen due to the money to get both JD and Nunez. Doesn't leave much $$$ for pitching unless JBJ trade would get someone at a decent price differential.

[moonslav59]

Betts

Beni

Nunez

JD

Devers

Hanley

Bogey

Moreland

Vazquez

 

Thats a lot of fire power but probably can't happen due to the money to get both JD and Nunez. Doesn't leave much $$$ for pitching unless JBJ trade would get someone at a decent price differential.

 

Nunez up 3rd? Based on what? 2 months with the Sox this year?

[jacksonianmarch]

Moreland gives the sox a payroll hit of $207 mil for 2018. If you sign Martinez for $25 mil per year, youre looking at a hit of $232 mil and that doesn't take into account deadline additions. The upper limit penalty is over $239 mil. In other words, unless Nunez wants to get a limited salary (this is his big payday, he doesn't) then he isn't going to be a sox in 2018

[moonslav59]

Moreland gives the sox a payroll hit of $207 mil for 2018. If you sign Martinez for $25 mil per year, youre looking at a hit of $232 mil and that doesn't take into account deadline additions. The upper limit penalty is over $239 mil. In other words, unless Nunez wants to get a limited salary (this is his big payday, he doesn't) then he isn't going to be a sox in 2018

 

We will probably trade JBJ, if we sign Martinez. That would free up enough for Nunez or a decent 5th starter. or, we could just keep a buffer for the deadline.

 

$7M + $6M projected JBJ arb= $13M

[jacksonianmarch]

Every contender needs a buffer for the deadline. You might deal JBJ just to have one

[moonslav59]

Every contender needs a buffer for the deadline. You might deal JBJ just to have one

 

His $6M value is worth more keeping.

 

It's what we'd get for JBJ that would be the reason to trade him.

[Meh]

Moreland gives the sox a payroll hit of $207 mil for 2018. If you sign Martinez for $25 mil per year, youre looking at a hit of $232 mil and that doesn't take into account deadline additions. The upper limit penalty is over $239 mil. In other words, unless Nunez wants to get a limited salary (this is his big payday, he doesn't) then he isn't going to be a sox in 2018

 

Thats not including the 12 million for medicals and stuff, hidden bonuses, the rest of the 25 man roster making 550,000 each and the 40 man making 2 million combined. they are probably at 225 million before JDM.

[moonslav59]

Thats not including the 12 million for medicals and stuff, hidden bonuses, the rest of the 25 man roster making 550,000 each and the 40 man making 2 million combined. they are probably at 225 million before JDM.

 

No, we had about $37-38M to spend to stay under the second tier. That's counting all arb estimates, the player benefit cost and the scubs that fill out the roster.

 

[moonslav59]

Updated with the Moreland signing....

 

The 40 man Roster (luxury tax 2018 cost):

[37 non-free agents on roster]

$31.0M Price

$22.0M HRam

$20.6M Porcello

($19M Sandoval- not on roster/ counts against luxury tax budget)

$13.8M Pedroia

$12.0M Kimbrel

($11.7M Castillo- not on 40 man roster/does not count on luxury budget)

$11.5M Sale (option)

$6.5M Moreland

Total Under Contract: ~$137.5M

 

Arbs --from MLBTR estimates: (year of arb)

~$9.1M Pomeranz (3 of 3)

~$8.2M Betts (1 of 3)

~$7.6M Bogey (2 of 3)

~$5.9M Bradley (2 of 4)

~$3.6M Kelly (3 of 3)

~$2.7M ERod (1 of 4)

~$2.1M Thornburg (2 of 3)

~$2.1M Leon (2 of 4)

~$2.1M Smith (1 of 3)

~$2.0M Holt (2 of 3)

~$1.5M Vaz (1 of 3)

~$1.2M Wright (1 of 3)

~$0.9M Workman (2 of 3)

~$0.6M Swihart (1 of 4)

$50.6M in arbs

 

Pre-arbs:

Beni, Devers, Barnes, Hembree, Scott, Hernandez, Maddox, Travis, Lin, Marrero, Taylor, Velazquez, Johnson, Elias, Brentz, Jerez, Beeks, Shepherd & Buttrey

Total Pre-Arb Costs: $5M

 

Total Estimated Cost (No Other Free Agent Signings Counted):

$192.5M +13M Player benefits=

 

~$206M

 

Luxury Tax Budget Limit: $207M

 

That leaves us slightly over $30M to spend and stay under the second penalty limit. It could be more if we trade some salary.

Edited December 19, 2017 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

I do not have any regrets if we do not sign a big bat, I like our current lineup,

 

but I do wish we could get a veteran to provide leadership in the clubhouse.

 

We have so missed the leadership Ortiz provided, it would be a shame to miss the opportunity to get a leader to keep the zombies focused and producing!

[moonslav59]

From what I've heard JD is great in the clubhouse.

[Nick]

Club Projected Space under $197 million tax threshold

 

Oakland $119,616,667

Chicago Sox $118,741,666

Milwaukee $116,251,667

Philadelphia $112,050,000

San Diego $101,991,667

Cincinnati $99,267,857

Tampa Bay $98,616,666

Minnesota $87,933,333

Miami $81,813,809

Pittsburgh $81,583,333

Colorado $77,533,334

Atlanta $72,810,116

Arizona $66,616,667

Royals $66,433,333

Detroit $61,055,000

Baltimore $60,975,000

NY Mets $60,364,261

Cleveland $54,180,335

St. Louis $48,814,850

Texas $44,970,238

Toronto $43,564,286

Houston $39,610,714

Cubs $37,692,858

LA Angels $28,222,620

Seattle $24,839,286

Giants $17,839,444

Dodgers $17,680,714

Yankees $16,550,000

Washington ($614,376)

Boston ($10,005,000)

 

PER COT'S BASEBALL

 

Owners thank you, Players Union.

Edited December 19, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

This is how I would look at Moreland signing.

 

Could the Sox have traded Hanley for "Moreland" level talent for 2 years, saved $9M, AND still get to keep Hanley for one of those two years?

 

Brilliant Move by DD. Of course some people are too stupid to see the real value in signing Moreland.

Edited December 19, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Thats not including the 12 million for medicals and stuff, hidden bonuses, the rest of the 25 man roster making 550,000 each and the 40 man making 2 million combined. they are probably at 225 million before JDM.

 

No, the $207M includes everything. Cot's Contracts now includes a separate 'Tax Tracker' sheet that figures out the lux tax numbers. It's pretty impressive.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I do not have any regrets if we do not sign a big bat, I like our current lineup,

 

but I do wish we could get a veteran to provide leadership in the clubhouse.

 

We have so missed the leadership Ortiz provided, it would be a shame to miss the opportunity to get a leader to keep the zombies focused and producing!

 

We won 93 games in Papi's last season and were eliminated in the first round.

 

We won 93 games in the first season without Papi and were eliminated in the first round.

 

You saw a big difference from the leadership factor?

[mvp 78]

I'd rather lengthen the line-up by batting Bogey 1st, even if just vs RHPs (maybe JBJ vs RHPs?)...

 

1) Bogey

2) Betts

3) Beni

4) JD

5) Devers

6) Moreland/HRam

7) JBJ/HRam

8) Pedey/Marco

9) Vaz

 

 

 

Pedey is now a #8 hitter? Boy was that contract worth it! Below market too!

[mvp 78]

We won 93 games in Papi's last season and were eliminated in the first round.

 

We won 93 games in the first season without Papi and were eliminated in the first round.

 

You saw a big difference from the leadership factor?

 

Instead of yelling about how the official scorer saw the game, they were complaining about the color analyst on NESN. Progress?

[Bellhorn04]

Pedey is now a #8 hitter? Boy was that contract worth it! Below market too!

 

What's our highest OBP guy doing hitting 8th?

[mvp 78]

What's our highest OBP guy doing hitting 8th?

 

Being wasted in the lineup I guess?