A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

HRam has .900 OPS upside potential next year.

 

Travis has .780 upside.

 

LOL, ok. When was the last time Hanley had a .900 OPS when playing a full season?

 

Travis had a .820 OPS in AA when he was 22 prior to injury. If you don't think he can add power after healing up and growing, I'm not sure what to tell you.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley had a .988 OPS for July-August-September/16, .866 for the season. There's still upside there if he's healthy and in a groove. But he's a big question mark, needless to say.

[moonslav59]

LOL, ok. When was the last time Hanley had a .900 OPS when playing a full season?

 

Travis had a .820 OPS in AA when he was 22 prior to injury. If you don't think he can add power after healing up and growing, I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

When was the last time Travis hit .850?

 

We don't want HRam to play a full season, so why look for his last one?

 

HRam was at .866 just last year. That's better than Travis has ever done on the farm.

HRam was over 1.000 in 2013 in 86 games. I just want .800 from HRam in 480 PAs. .750 would beat Travis and is certainly $6.5M better than what Moreland will give us.

[moonslav59]

Hanley had a .988 OPS for July-August-September/16, .866 for the season. There's still upside there if he's healthy and in a groove. But he's a big question mark, needless to say.

 

Big question mark, yes, but if he fails, we could have traded scraps for some as good or better than Moreland.

[Spudboy]

Thing is, we're paying HRam already- Moreland was a choice. We didn't need both, unless we are not signing JD.

 

I am all for austerity. But really the team is best served with a real 1st baseman. Hanley does not do enough of the Hanley things anymore to make the sacrifice of defense worthwhile. Feel free to post reams of stats to disprove my assertion ( opinion ).

 

I get it now. You don't like Moreland and you don't like Holt. Two players that combined make less than 9 mil a year.

[moonslav59]

I am all for austerity. But really the team is best served with a real 1st baseman. Hanley does not do enough of the Hanley things anymore to make the sacrifice of defense worthwhile. Feel free to post reams of stats to disprove my assertion ( opinion ).

 

I get it now. You don't like Moreland and you don't like Holt. Two players that combined make less than 9 mil a year.

 

Moreland is okay, but he's not an upgrade over a healthy, producing HRam. If HRam sucks or gets hurt, finding similar players to Moreland mid season is one of the easiest things a GM can do.

[moonslav59]

If it was between only Moreland and Hosmer, I'm a 100% for Moreland.

[mvp 78]

Moreland is okay, but he's not an upgrade over a healthy, producing HRam. If HRam sucks or gets hurt, finding similar players to Moreland mid season is one of the easiest things a GM can do.

 

But then you are thinning out your prospect pool?

[moonslav59]

But then you are thinning out your prospect pool?

 

Look what Nunez, Davis and Reed cost us.

[Kimmi]

DD boxed himself into this corner by signing Moreland. HRAM could have played 1B with JD at DH. IF HRam got hurt or sucked, we could have traded for a 1Bman easily. It's the simplest trade in MLB.

 

 

I don't think he boxed himself into a corner. I think he provided himself a little leverage in being able to wait out Boras with regards to signing JD. If we do sign JD, Dombrowski will figure out what to do with Hanley, which very well might be to keep him and JBJ.

[cp176]

I don't think he boxed himself into a corner. I think he provided himself a little leverage in being able to wait out Boras with regards to signing JD. If we do sign JD, Dombrowski will figure out what to do with Hanley, which very well might be to keep him and JBJ.

 

I agree with this one. I think that what to do with Hanley is secondary to getting JD signed. He will figure it out and it very well might mean keeping them all. I'm not sure anyone here has really talked about what Moreland's role might be with us for the next couple of years. I'm not even sure that it really matters to him. He is a ballplayer. I like him. He just might be one of those guys who will do what he is asked to do when he is asked to do it as well as he can.

[Kimmi]

I agree with this one. I think that what to do with Hanley is secondary to getting JD signed. He will figure it out and it very well might mean keeping them all. I'm not sure anyone here has really talked about what Moreland's role might be with us for the next couple of years. I'm not even sure that it really matters to him. He is a ballplayer. I like him. He just might be one of those guys who will do what he is asked to do when he is asked to do it as well as he can.

 

I like Moreland too. I am happy to have him back.

 

Of course, I am of the opinion that our offense will improve even if we keep the status quo.

[moonslav59]

Moreland is okay, but 1B is THE position for power, and we need power.

 

Status quo just doesn't do it for me, unless it is part of a plan to save money for something very powerful.

[Slasher9]

unless it is part of a plan to save money for something very powerful.

 

Yes, his name was Giancarlo.

Thanks Dave....

[notin]

LOL, ok. When was the last time Hanley had a .900 OPS when playing a full season?

 

Travis had a .820 OPS in AA when he was 22 prior to injury. If you don't think he can add power after healing up and growing, I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

I get the disappointment in Hanley, but the solution isn't to oversell the extremely bland Sam Travis. I think his middle name is "Meh"...

[moonslav59]

Yes, his name was Giancarlo.

Thanks Dave....

 

I think his name is JD Martinez.

[notin]

Moreland is okay, but 1B is THE position for power, and we need power.

 

Status quo just doesn't do it for me, unless it is part of a plan to save money for something very powerful.

 

 

I am no Mitch Moreland fan, but in the raw power department he might be the most underrated hitter in MLB. When he connects, he hits shots that travel further than almost anyone in MLB.

 

The problem is getting him to connect regularly. Its like he lacks the ability to hit a ball between 330 and 380 feet.

[Larry Cook]

Hasn’t Moreland hit 20 taters per season for the past couple of years?

 

If we need more power, we isn’t everyone looking at bogey?

 

Plus we will have devers for a full season.

 

At the end of the day, we have a decent lineup capable of scoring, but we need more pitching!

[Kimmi]

Moreland is okay, but 1B is THE position for power, and we need power.

 

Status quo just doesn't do it for me, unless it is part of a plan to save money for something very powerful.

 

Status quo on the offense, which really wouldn't be status quo with the expected positive regression.

 

Upgrade the pitching. Call it a day.

[Kimmi]

Hasn’t Moreland hit 20 taters per season for the past couple of years?

 

If we need more power, we isn’t everyone looking at bogey?

 

Plus we will have devers for a full season.

 

At the end of the day, we have a decent lineup capable of scoring, but we need more pitching!

 

!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Status quo on the offense, which really wouldn't be status quo with the expected positive regression.

 

Upgrade the pitching. Call it a day.

 

What's the projected WAR for the Sox 2018 offense as it stands now? Harmony?

[Kimmi]

What's the projected WAR for the Sox 2018 offense as it stands now? Harmony?

 

Using Fangraphs Depth Charts, the current projected WAR for our 2018 offense is 25.5.

 

A replacement team is typically considered to be worth 48 Wins. With the offense, that puts us at 73.6 Wins.

[moonslav59]

I am no Mitch Moreland fan, but in the raw power department he might be the most underrated hitter in MLB. When he connects, he hits shots that travel further than almost anyone in MLB.

 

The problem is getting him to connect regularly. Its like he lacks the ability to hit a ball between 330 and 380 feet.

 

We needed more than a guy who makes great connections just 22-24 times a year. The 1B position is THE POWER POSITION.

 

We needed to add power.

 

We had an opening at THE power position.

 

We chose status quo.

 

2017 ISO (32 1Bmen with 450+ PAs)

4. Lucas Duda .279

6. Logan Morrison .270

11. Jose Abreu .248

13. Yondeer Alonso .235

17. Mark Reynolds .219

21. Mitch Moreland .197

22. Carlos Santana .196

27. Hosmer .179

(If you look at just the bottom 3, we got a steal, but clearly better power hitters were out there.)

 

2014-2017 ISO (32 with 1500+ PAs)

4. Duda .242

9. Abreu .224

17. Santana .199

18. Morrison .196

21. Reynolds .191

22. HRam .189

23. Moreland .187

29 Hosmer .160

30. Alonso .153

[mvp 78]

Yes, his name was Giancarlo.

Thanks Dave....

 

Thanks Giancarlo! Since he didn't want to come here in the first place.

[mvp 78]

I think his name is JD Martinez.

 

Speak it brother Moon!

[mvp 78]

Status quo on the offense, which really wouldn't be status quo with the expected positive regression.

 

Upgrade the pitching. Call it a day.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Interesting that the Tribune has the Sox offense seeing positive regression in 2018 with the Yankees showing negative regression...

[moonslav59]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Interesting that the Tribune has the Sox offense seeing positive regression in 2018 with the Yankees showing negative regression...

 

They have us both with 91 wins and a 105 run differential with the Yanks having a slightly better offense and us having a slightly better pitching staff/defense.

 

Astros and Guardians ahead of us, so basically, we're tied for 3rd best in the AL. That's before we make any major signing or addition.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has us 3rd in RS/gm.

 

That's a big jump based on what?

 

Losing Young, Nunez and Davis and gaining a full year of Devers, I guess.

 

They must project big gains from our returning players after nearly all declined last year from 2016.

[moonslav59]

They place us 10th in runs allowed.

[moonslav59]

They only have one AL East team with less than 80 wins- The O's at 75.