A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Spudboy]

To say his contract is the worst after 2 seasons is not very bright. I bet Price doesn't have any plans to flame out.

 

Yeah I don't get all the Price hate at all.

 

It's funny. When Price was initially signed I posed a question to the board about what the fan reaction would be if he was not pitching the way that he had been for the prior 7 years or so. Would he be given any slack or would he immediately be deemed a bum? Given the enormity of the contract and all.

 

I now have my answer.

[Spudboy]

I also didn't view it as a trade. I remember people being enthusiastic about the prospects that we got in return. I was fairly certain that the guys we got in the trade were busted prospects who would never amount to anything. The Dodgers included just enough that the Commissioner would approve the deal. It was a salary dump -- pure and simple.

 

That was how I saw it as well.

 

The luck part of it was that the Sox found a team dumb enough to assume those big useless contracts just to get Gonzalez.

[Spudboy]

I don't remember that info ever coming out.

 

I don't remember the specific report or if it was ever verified but I do remember hearing or reading this in the Boston media at that time.

[moonslav59]

We've had this discussion before, of course. I don't look at it as a trade, because we got no talent in return unless you really want to count Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster.

 

The reports on that trade indicated that Ben was involved at kind of a lower level, that Henry and Lucchino were the driving forces.

 

I do think Lucchino was likely responsible for some of the bad moves during Ben's time.

 

I was a Ben supporter up until 2015. He lost me with Who's the Ace?

 

It was a fantastic trade that made room for us to sign the guys that helped us win in 2013.

 

The fact is we traded away bums.

 

I wish DD could have dumped Pablo.

[Bellhorn04]

It was a fantastic trade that made room for us to sign the guys that helped us win in 2013.

 

The fact is we traded away bums.

 

I wish DD could have dumped Pablo.

 

It was a very fortunate salary dump, no question.

 

I'm sure DD wishes the same.

[harmony]

It was a fantastic trade that made room for us to sign the guys that helped us win in 2013.

 

The fact is we traded away bums.

 

I wish DD could have dumped Pablo.

The Dodgers survived with five straight postseason berths with at least 91 wins each season, including 104 wins this year.

[cp176]

Theo is the G.O.A.T. GM. no one comes close.

 

When DD was hired we all knew our Farm was toast. and that's exactly what happened. i'm glad Sale was one of the players brought in. here's hoping he kept just enough to obtain Giancarlo this offseason. if he didn't that will be his second biggest blunder. (signing Price will go down as the worst contract of all time).....

 

Oh Slasher - no no - What are you going to say when Price comes out of the gate next year throwing well? Will we have the worst trade of all time in Pomeranz and the worst contract of all time in Price? lol

[Kimmi]

But he gets no credit for 2 Division titles. Just go ask Kimmi. It was all Theo. And if we win it all this year? Theo. Using that logic, I'll blame it on Ben if we don't win it all this year.

 

2016 - Roughly 50 WAR were earned by players that were already in the organization before Dombrowski stepped foot in it. Roughly 10 WAR were earned by players that Dombrowski brought in. The point is that the division winning team was already largely in place. Dombrowski walked into a very favorable situation.

 

You are fooling yourself if you think Dombrowski worked some kind of special magic to take this team from last to first. They would have done it whether Dombrowski was at the helm or if I was at the helm.

 

Dombrowski gets more credit for 2017, but the team is still largely a Theo/Ben team. Deny it all you want, but the numbers don't lie.

[Kimmi]

Well, Kimmi did say this:

 

"He didn't do anything but step into a great situation and reap the benefits that others worked so hard to build."

 

That's pretty close.

 

And it's mild compared to what Larry Cook has been saying.

 

But is my statement false? I think not!

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers survived with five straight postseason berths with at least 91 wins each season, including 104 wins this year.

 

No thanks to CC, Beckett and even AGon.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR came out with it's top 50 Free Agent Projected Destination Page.

 

JD Martinez ($150M/6, Logan Morrison ($36M/3) & Bryan Shaw ($21M/3) to the Sox ($44M total per year)

Moustakas to ATL

 

Santana back to CLE

 

Cozart to SD

 

Darvish to Cubs

 

Arrieta to MIL

 

Tanaka to Philly

 

CC Sab back to NYY/ A Avila to NYY

 

A Cobb to MN

 

Hosmer back to KC

 

L Lynn TEX

 

L Cain to SFG

 

Wade Davis to HOU

 

[harmony]

No thanks to CC, Beckett and even AGon.

Carl Crawford posted seasons of 2.8 and 2.6 fWAR for the Dodgers while Adrian Gonzalez posted seasons of 2.9, 3.6 and 3.9 fWAR for the Blue.

 

The 2017 American League East champions had only two position players post at least 2.4 fWAR.

[moonslav59]

Leaves us very close to the second level luxury tax penalty- probably over, unless we cut or trade some salary. Kinda squeezes out HRam, unless we trade an OF'er (JBJ for a pitcher?).

 

I like the plan.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Martinez DH

5. Morrison 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. Pedey 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

Bench: HRam, Leon, Hernandez, and one from Lin/Swihart/Holt/Marrero/Travis

 

S1 Sale

S2 Price

S3 Pom

S4 Porcello

S5 Wright>ERod (Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks/Elias/Haley)

 

R1 Kimbrel

R2 Shaw

R3 Smith

R4 Kelly

R5 Barnes

R6 Maddox

R7 Workman/Hembree/Scott/Johnson/Taylor

 

[moonslav59]

Carl Crawford posted seasons of 2.8 and 2.6 fWAR for the Dodgers while Adrian Gonzalez posted seasons of 2.9, 3.6 and 3.9 fWAR for the Blue.

 

The 2017 American League East champions had only two position players post at least 2.4 fWAR.

 

Come on harmony, any Dodger fan or executive would tell you Crawford was a total unequivocal bust with us and LA. (5.0 total WAR in 5 years on the books. Christ, we paid a dollar to get Nava, and he gave us more than that!) The money they paid him, even with the amount we paid was still a terrible deal for them.

 

AGon was a disappointment. (9.6 total WAR in 5 years)

 

You also conveniently neglected to mention Beckett who racked up a massive WAR total of 0.5 in 2 years.

 

All totaled, they got about 15 WAR for 12 contract years at a high rate of pay. How you can try to sugar coat it baffles me.

 

FYI, some Sox WAR numbers at 1B and LF from 2013 to 2017 at fractions of the cost of the clowns we traded.

 

3.9 Napoli 1B 2013

2.6 Nava LF 2014

2.4 Napoli 1B 2014

 

Team WAR at 1B and LF

 

1B

2013: 5.2

2014: 1.0

2015: 1.7

2016: 4.3

2017: 0.9

Total: 12.1

 

LF

2013: 4.2

2014: 3.1

2015: 0.0 (The HRam disaster)

2016: 2.2

2017: 1.9

Total: 11.4

 

Then, there's Beckett, who is harder to compare...

2013 Dempster 0.5 or Doubront 2.2

2014 DLR 0.4 or Webster 0.3 or Masterson 0.1

2015 Miley 2.6 or ERod 1.7 or Kelly 1.2/R Hill 1.1

2016 Wright 2.7 or ERod 1.2

2017 Fister 1.3

 

So, the Dodgers still won, despite the trade. That doesn't mean it was a good trade for them. It sucked for them and was great for us.

 

 

[Northern Star]

The reason Josh Beckett gets a pass for me for anything and everything is his WS winning performance against the Yankees in 2003. His money will never be good in my bar.

[moonslav59]

The reason Josh Beckett gets a pass for me for anything and everything is his WS winning performance against the Yankees in 2003. His money will never be good in my bar.

 

I have no beef with Beckett. I even think the whole chicken gate was blown out of proportion and too much blame was placed on JB.

 

I only have two Sox jerseys with a player's name on the back: one is Ortiz and the other is Beckett.

 

I still wear my Beckett jersey with pride as I mow my lawn.

[harmony]

Come on harmony, any Dodger fan or executive would tell you Crawford was a total unequivocal bust with us and LA. (5.0 total WAR in 5 years on the books. Christ, we paid a dollar to get Nava, and he gave us more than that!) The money they paid him, even with the amount we paid was still a terrible deal for them.

 

AGon was a disappointment. (9.6 total WAR in 5 years)

 

You also conveniently neglected to mention Beckett who racked up a massive WAR total of 0.5 in 2 years.

 

All totaled, they got about 15 WAR for 12 contract years at a high rate of pay. How you can try to sugar coat it baffles me.

 

FYI, some Sox WAR numbers at 1B and LF from 2013 to 2017 at fractions of the cost of the clowns we traded.

 

3.9 Napoli 1B 2013

2.6 Nava LF 2014

2.4 Napoli 1B 2014

 

Team WAR at 1B and LF

 

1B

2013: 5.2

2014: 1.0

2015: 1.7

2016: 4.3

2017: 0.9

Total: 12.1

 

LF

2013: 4.2

2014: 3.1

2015: 0.0 (The HRam disaster)

2016: 2.2

2017: 1.9

Total: 11.4

 

Then, there's Beckett, who is harder to compare...

2013 Dempster 0.5 or Doubront 2.2

2014 DLR 0.4 or Webster 0.3 or Masterson 0.1

2015 Miley 2.6 or ERod 1.7 or Kelly 1.2/R Hill 1.1

2016 Wright 2.7 or ERod 1.2

2017 Fister 1.3

 

So, the Dodgers still won, despite the trade. That doesn't mean it was a good trade for them. It sucked for them and was great for us.

 

 

All I wrote was that the Dodgers "survived" the trade by advancing to the postseason five straight years with contributions from Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in some of those years. The trade was not the Dodger disaster some Red Sox fans make it out to be.

 

Since the trade, the Dodgers have posted a 491-355 (.580) regular-season record while the Red Sox have posted a 441-405 (.521) record with two last-place finishes.

 

Boston fans can continue their long-standing tradition of dissing departed Red Sox players but Carl Crawford earned his 2013 and 2014 salaries with the Dodgers, according to fWAR salary conversion:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1201&position=OF#value

 

... before resembling the Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez of recent years.

[moonslav59]

All I wrote was that the Dodgers "survived" the trade by advancing to the postseason five straight years with contributions from Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in some of those years. The trade was not the Dodger disaster some Red Sox fans make it out to be.

 

The Dodgers could afford the burnt salary. I'm not sure I've heard anyone rant about how the trade hurt the Dodgers. It was more about how we got out of having to pay almost all of their contracts.

 

BTW, you did say more than just what the two of the players did in a few select year. You hinted that Sox players did worse. Napoli and nava did better than AGon & CC, and if you add Beckett to the equation, there's just no way anyone can spin that the "contributions" were worth it.

 

Since the trade, the Dodgers have posted a 491-355 (.580) regular-season record while the Red Sox have posted a 441-405 (.521) record with two last-place finishes.

 

Teams can win despite having under performing players and busts. We won despite Lugo.

 

Boston fans can continue their long-standing tradition of dissing departed Red Sox players but Carl Crawford earned his 2013 and 2014 salaries with the Dodgers, according to fWAR salary conversion:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ition=OF#value

 

You always seem to selectively choose the sample sizes to fit your position. Even those two years from CC were not that great, and the rest of his deal more than offset those two years. Then you talk of AGon and CC's 2-13 years and compare it to the Sox lack of big WAR players in 2017. CC didn't even play the last year of his contract (2017) and AGon is a shell of his former self. Why not compare 2017 AGon & CC to what we replaced them with? or, 2013 CC and AGon to what we had at 1b and LF in 2013? Isn't that more fair?

 

AGon was clearly a big disappointment- no if, and, or buts. The fact that he had a couple decent years does not take away from the overall fizzle.

 

BTW, I still have very good feelings towards several ex-Sox players, but I'm not disputing how many Sox fans like to roast ex Sox players.

Edited November 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

All I wrote was that the Dodgers "survived" the trade by advancing to the postseason five straight years with contributions from Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in some of those years. The trade was not the Dodger disaster some Red Sox fans make it out to be.

 

The Dodgers could afford the burnt salary. I'm not sure I've heard anyone rant about how the trade hurt the Dodgers. It was more about how we got out of having to pay almost all of their contracts.

 

BTW, you did say more than just what the two of the players did in a few select year. You hinted that Sox players did worse. Napoli and nava did better than AGon & CC, and if you add Beckett to the equation, there's just no way anyone can spin that the "contributions" were worth it.

 

Since the trade, the Dodgers have posted a 491-355 (.580) regular-season record while the Red Sox have posted a 441-405 (.521) record with two last-place finishes.

 

Teams can win despite having under performing players and busts. We won despite Lugo.

 

Boston fans can continue their long-standing tradition of dissing departed Red Sox players but Carl Crawford earned his 2013 and 2014 salaries with the Dodgers, according to fWAR salary conversion:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...ition=OF#value

 

You always seem to selectively choose the sample sizes to fit your position. Even those two years from CC were not that great, and the rest of his deal more than offset those two years. Then you talk of AGon and CC's 2-13 years and compare it to the Sox lack of big WAR players in 2017. CC didn't even play the last year of his contract (2017) and AGon is a shell of his former self. Why not compare 2017 AGon & CC to what we replaced them with? or, 2013 CC and AGon to what we had at 1b and LF in 2013? Isn't that more fair?

 

AGon was clearly a big disappointment- no if, and, or buts. The fact that he had a couple decent years does not take away from the overall fizzle.

 

BTW, I still have very good feelings towards several ex-Sox players, but I'm not disputing how many Sox fans like to roast ex Sox players.

When I noted the Dodger success since the trade you responded: "No thanks to CC, Beckett and even AGon."

 

I noted their contributions to the string of five straight seasons of 90+ wins..

 

Dodger fans are probably too busy celebrating five consecutive NL West titles to dwell on an August 2012 trade. Red Sox fans, on the other hand, could comfort themselves in the last-place seasons of 2014 and 2015 by pointing to the 2013 World Series crown and the money saved in the 2012 trade with the Dodgers.

 

I question whether there was a strong connection between the August 2012 trade and the 2013 World Series title. The Sox won the lottery of the mid-range free agent market in the 2012-13 offseason with the signings of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara. Each far exceeded expectations which, coupled with Boston Strong, made 2013 a special season.

[dgalehouse]

All I wrote was that the Dodgers "survived" the trade by advancing to the postseason five straight years with contributions from Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in some of those years. The trade was not the Dodger disaster some Red Sox fans make it out to be.

 

Since the trade, the Dodgers have posted a 491-355 (.580) regular-season record while the Red Sox have posted a 441-405 (.521) record with two last-place finishes.

 

Boston fans can continue their long-standing tradition of dissing departed Red Sox players but Carl Crawford earned his 2013 and 2014 salaries with the Dodgers, according to fWAR salary conversion:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1201&position=OF#value

 

... before resembling the Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez of recent years.

 

Harm , Expecting big things from the Mariners now that they have hired a " Director of high performance". Not sure what that is or what they are paying her , but it does sound impressive.

[moonslav59]

When I noted the Dodger success since the trade you responded: "No thanks to CC, Beckett and even AGon."

 

I noted their contributions to the string of five straight seasons of 90+ wins..

 

Dodger fans are probably too busy celebrating five consecutive NL West titles to dwell on an August 2012 trade. Red Sox fans, on the other hand, could comfort themselves in the last-place seasons of 2014 and 2015 by pointing to the 2013 World Series crown and the money saved in the 2012 trade with the Dodgers.

 

I question whether there was a strong connection between the August 2012 trade and the 2013 World Series title. The Sox won the lottery of the mid-range free agent market in the 2012-13 offseason with the signings of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara. Each far exceeded expectations which, coupled with Boston Strong, made 2013 a special season.

 

Then the fell short of expectations.

 

The three Dodgers obtained from the Sox did not make meaningful contributions to all 5 winning years.

 

15 total WAR over 12 contract years at untold millions of dollars was not a success. The Dodgers could have won more by better spending those dollars.

 

They paid CC $21M to sit at home this year. That's Pabloesque.

 

They still owe AGon over $20M next year, and he might be the back-up 1Bman.

 

I'm not saying I'd rather have HRam and Pablo than AGon, but that's not the real or only comp that should be made.

 

The Sox won a ring with the money saved. We'd be have been screwed had we not dumped those salaries. I'm surprised that's even up for debate.

 

The "contributions" the three players made to the Dodgers was okay at first, but even the first two years were disappointments. I doubt their combined value ever exceeded their combined salaries, even if their so-so years. The ends of their deals were atrocious, and only the fact that the Dodgers could spend like maniacs kept them winning- not these three guys.

 

[harmony]

Harm , Expecting big things from the Mariners now that they have hired a " Director of high performance". Not sure what that is or what they are paying her , but it does sound impressive.

I read that with some interest.

 

Lorena Martin, Seattle's director of high performance, reportedly will employ advanced analytics in injury prevention and athletic performance:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260124068/seattle-hires-lorena-martin-to-direct-training/

 

Dr. Martin completed a three-year postdoctoral fellowship at the University of California, San Diego, where Jonah Dipoto, son of Seattle GM Dipoto, is a reliever on the Triton baseball team.

[moonslav59]

Jeffery Todd commented that if the Sox sign the 3 players MLBTR projects they will (JD Martinez, Logan Morrison and Bryan Shaw, they will then trade JBJ. He didn't suggest for whom. (My guess is a SP'er.)

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni CF

4. JD Martinez LF

5. Morrison 1B

6. Devers 3B

7. HRam DH

8. Pedey 2B

9. Vaz C

 

 

[moonslav59]

I read that with some interest.

 

Lorena Martin, Seattle's director of high performance, reportedly will employ advanced analytics in injury prevention and athletic performance:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260124068/seattle-hires-lorena-martin-to-direct-training/

 

Dr. Martin completed a three-year postdoctoral fellowship at the University of California, San Diego, where Jonah Dipoto, son of Seattle GM Dipoto, is a reliever on the Triton baseball team.

 

So, your team said no to Iwakuma and Gallardo. Your thoughts?

[harmony]

So, your team said no to Iwakuma and Gallardo. Your thoughts?

Seattle needs pitching but was compelled to cut ties with Hisashi Iwakuma, who had a $10 million option or $1 million buyout for 2018, and Yovani Gallardo, who had a $13 million option or $2 million buyout for 2018.

 

Iwakuma gave the Mariners a few great seasons but injuries have slowed the righthander as the veteran approaches his age 37 season. The nearly 32-year-old Gallardo did not produce in his only year in Seattle but the Mariners may try to bring him back at a lower salary as the M's blur the distinction between starting pitchers and relievers.

 

The Mariners face serious challenges this offseason.

[moonslav59]

As expected, the Sox exercised the options on Sale ($12.5M) & Kimbrel ($13M).

 

Robbie Ross and Josh Rutledge elected free agency after being outrighted.

 

Bryce Brentz and Williams Jerez were added to the 40 man roster (now at 37 as players come off the 60 day DL).

 

Here's the 37 man roster:

 

Betts, Beni, Devers, JBJ, Bogey

Sale, Kimbrel, Pomeranz

ERod (will be on the 60 day DL), Pedroia, Vazquez

 

Price, Porcello, HRam

Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Wright, Maddox, Workman, Thornburg (starts on 60-day DL?),Scott, Johnson, Velazquez, Taylor

Travis, Hernandez, Lin, Leon

 

Bubble:

Brentz (May sign in Japan)

Marrero

Holt (with Pedey out, will likely stay)

Hembree (out of options)

Jerez

Elias

Swihart (utility man?)

Owens (The first to go?)

 

Here's the rule 5 eligible list:

 

Victor Acosta

Yoan Aybar

Trey Ball

Jeremy Barfield

Jalen Beeks

Danny Bethea

Jordan Betts

Ty Buttrey

Rusney Castillo

Harrison Cooney

Jake Cosart

Enmanuel De Jesus

Jhonathan Diaz

Willis Figueroa

Pat Goetze

Daniel Gonzalez

Justin Haley

Juan Hernandez

Bryan Hudson

Dedgar Jimenez

Raiwinson Lameda

Deiner Lopez

Isaias Lucena

Danny Mars

Kyle Martin

Algenis Martinez

Kevin McAvoy

Daniel McGrath

Ritzi Mendoza

Mike Meyers

Mike Miller

Samuel Miranda

Joseph Monge

Jhon Nunez

Justin Pacchioli

Yankory Pimentel

Jordan Procyshen

Hildemaro Requena

Jeremy Rivera

Fernando Rodriguez

Jake Romanski

Chandler Shepherd

Josh Smith

Teddy Stankiewicz

Cole Sturgeon

Aneury Tavarez

Carlos Tovar

Marcus Walden

Jordan Weems

Jantzen Witte

 

Minor League Free Agents

 

Brian Bogusevic

Dan Butler

Ryan Court

Jacob Dahlstrand

Matt Dominguez

Conrad Gregor

Shawn Haviland

Kyle Kendrick

Heiker Meneses

Edgar Olmos

Mike Olt

Mitchell Osnowitz

Tim Roberson

Steve Selsky

Jose Sermo

Herny Urrutia

Elih Villaneuva

Edited November 3, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Seattle needs pitching but was compelled to cut ties with Hisashi Iwakuma, who had a $10 million option or $1 million buyout for 2018, and Yovani Gallardo, who had a $13 million option or $2 million buyout for 2018.

 

Iwakuma gave the Mariners a few great seasons but injuries have slowed the righthander as the veteran approaches his age 37 season. The nearly 32-year-old Gallardo did not produce in his only year in Seattle but the Mariners may try to bring him back at a lower salary as the M's blur the distinction between starting pitchers and relievers.

 

The Mariners face serious challenges this offseason.

 

So, the cost differential on Gallardo was $11M ($13M -$2M buyout).

 

Close call.

 

I agree on H.I.

[harmony]

So, the cost differential on Gallardo was $11M ($13M -$2M buyout).

 

Close call.

 

I agree on H.I.

Yovani Gallardo posted 0.0 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR this year in 28 appearances, including 22 starts, with a projected 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 25 appearances, including five starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8173&position=P

 

Gallardo had an ERA of 1.69 in six relief appearances covering 16 innings.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It is good to see the Red Sox add Brentz to the 40 man but it should have been done during the regular season: it was clear that Young was all washed up and that Brentz deserved his roster spot.

 

Brentz should give the Red Sox some extra power against LHP. A good move, but made way too late.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

2016 - Roughly 50 WAR were earned by players that were already in the organization before Dombrowski stepped foot in it. Roughly 10 WAR were earned by players that Dombrowski brought in. The point is that the division winning team was already largely in place. Dombrowski walked into a very favorable situation.

 

You are fooling yourself if you think Dombrowski worked some kind of special magic to take this team from last to first. They would have done it whether Dombrowski was at the helm or if I was at the helm.

 

Dombrowski gets more credit for 2017, but the team is still largely a Theo/Ben team. Deny it all you want, but the numbers don't lie.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong Kimmi, but I believe the 2017 team had a higher WAR from DD acquisitions than it did from Ben acquisitions.

 

Unless you're giving Ben credit for players like Mookie because he retained them. But in that case DD would also get credit.