A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[Kimmi]

When Theo was hired, I really felt he had a vision or a plan to get us a championship and build a perennial championship calibre team.

 

Theo fought with and prevailed against a meddling Larry and delivered for us.

 

One bad ending to a season, ending with a boatload of fried chicken and beer and Theo and Fran are off the property. Larry brought in valentine and he had a puppet GM installed by the name of Ben, Did anybody really think that valentine would work?

 

So then Larry jettisoned valentine and brought in Farrell. Simultaneously, Ben won the lottery on low/medium cost veteran free agents. However Ben and Larry tried to play their hand an extra season and that did not end well,

 

Ben then started to rebuild the correct way, but the slow way, by restocking the farm. Larry brought in Hanley and the clown panda.

 

So finally Henry has it with Larry and boots him. I give Henry high marks for making that decision.

 

But then, desperate dave becomes available and Henry loses his mind and brings him in to run the baseball operations department.

 

The result is Ben jumps ship. That offseason most of the best and brightest in the baseball operations department also jump ship in order to get as far away from desperate dave as possible.

 

They recognize that desperate dave is a fireman with no medium to long distance plan and little to no regard for the value of a farm system.

 

So here we sit. A flawed team, with key physically broken down veterans, with no power and underperformers littered across the roster.

 

We, as fans, have almost universally acknowledged that we need power, a 1st baseman, a reserve outfielder and a lefty reliever.

 

We have an expensive roster and less than preferred spending room to fill these holes and because of desperate dave, a mostly barren farm system.

 

Yes, we have won two consecutive al east crowns, but done next to nothing for two October's in a row!

 

So I ask again, does anybody feel this joke of a GM can build us a perennial championship calibre team???

 

I don't agree with everything you wrote in this post, but I really, really like it overall.

[Kimmi]

I'll ask you the same question I've asked elsewhere:

 

How was Dombrowski supposed to rebuild our pitching staff from virtually nothing without depleting the farm?

 

He was not rebuilding our pitching staff from virtually nothing. He had already signed Price. Porcello and ERod were already on the staff. He should not have traded away all of those prospects for Kimbrel. Those prospects could have been put to better use, and that trade started the snowball, IMO. I was actually okay with the trade for Pomeranz. At the time that it happened, he did not need to trade for Sale. Acquiring Sale was overkill.

[Kimmi]

I'm glad you are not our GM.

 

All DD has done is bring for 1st time back to back Division titles. You are okay with coming in last place 3 out of 4 years?

 

He is responsible for key players on the team. We don't win without Price last year. We don't win this year without Sale and Pom. We don't win either years without Kimbrel. He's hamstrung by Pablo's bloated contract for two more f***ing years after overcoming it for last two years.

 

Tell me again how he has failed the Sox?

 

Dombrowski did not bring the Red Sox back to back division titles. Ben and Theo did. Even the players that Dombrowski brought in were only made possible by the great work of his predecessors.

[Kimmi]

Ben is drawing a lot of interest for the Braves GM position. Cashman tried to hire Ben right after he left the Sox because the Yankees were going into rebuild. It seems to me that other organizations think very highly of Ben's 5 year plan.

 

The thing about a 5 year plan is that it usually takes 5 years. Go figure.

 

But in the midst of all that, Ben was able to bring us a World Championship. Not too shabby.

[S5Dewey]

You don't know that.

 

I seriously doubt his plan was to keep every last prospect.

 

Look, Ben made some horrible mistakes. Instead of Morton and Peacock, he got Masterson and Dempster.

Instead of Reddick and McCann, he got Pablo & HRam.

 

There's no denying he botched some things up real badly.

 

I don't understand why you keep picking on poor Ryan Dempster!

 

Ok, you can say that the $13M he got for 2013 was an overpay but at the same time he averaged almost 6 innings per start and gave up only ~3 runs per start. I see that as being pretty great for a #5 pitcher. I'd rather have paid him $13M and won the WS than have paid half that to another pitcher and lost. And while we're talking about money, Dempster is also the guy who walked away from another $13M in 2014 by retiring before the 2014 season. That should count for a lot to someone who tracks salaries and luxury tax implications!

 

Besides, there's this issue of him and Arod and the HBP. Ryan Dempster will always be a Red Sox hero in my book, if only for that!

[jacksonianmarch]

What a fickle fanbase, lol. Dan wasn't a mystery when he was hired. It wasn't like he was hiding his true identity and was laughing maniacally after being hired. Henry knew he was hiring a guy who was going to turn the sox into a winner now and sell the future. You don't hire DD if you want a home grown team that will reap minor league fruit on a yearly basis. You get Dan when you want your farm system to be turned into high producing veterans right now. Dan turned a two time last place finishing team and turned them into 2 time AL East winners. You cannot blame Dan for that. In doing so, Dan created a cliff. The merits of his hiring will be in the world series titles. You don't hire a guy to decimate your farm and win NOW if you anticipate early October exits. He completed objective #1, which was turn the sox into a winner. He has yet to complete objective #2 and win the big one.

 

BTW, the funniest thing here is the reversal of roles in the AL East. The sox became the mercenarial machine, the unlikable team of guys who seem to have no chemistry but out-talent teams they play against. And the Yankees became the upstart team of home grown stars who are very likable and make up for their lack of experience with a cohesive clubhouse chemistry. Weird how that table turned

[moonslav59]

I don't understand why you keep picking on poor Ryan Dempster!

 

Ok, you can say that the $13M he got for 2013 was an overpay but at the same time he averaged almost 6 innings per start and gave up only ~3 runs per start. I see that as being pretty great for a #5 pitcher. I'd rather have paid him $13M and won the WS than have paid half that to another pitcher and lost. And while we're talking about money, Dempster is also the guy who walked away from another $13M in 2014 by retiring before the 2014 season. That should count for a lot to someone who tracks salaries and luxury tax implications!

 

Besides, there's this issue of him and Arod and the HBP. Ryan Dempster will always be a Red Sox hero in my book, if only for that!

 

I've explained my position on Dempster, and we've had this discussion enough times to not have to rehash.

 

Dempster and Masterson did not have the seasons Peacock and Morton just had. That's one reason Ben failed.

 

Dempster did well enough as our 5th starter, and he helped us win in 2013, but he was paid like a number 3.

 

We were lucky he retired, although the money saved was wasted.

 

 

My point is that Ben built a formidable farm system. I doubt he was going to keep every last one. There was no place for all of them to play anyways. His big downfall was that he was given a budget to keep winning while we rebuilt, and he failed miserably on that front- or his players failed him. I say this because many of the same players who "failed" Ben did way better the next year under DD- most notably Porcello and HRam.

 

Had DD not been given the farm and core young players Ben left him, there's have been no rebuilding and no two division wins. Had DD been forced to take Bobby V as his manager, what then?

 

Ben was no saint, but he does not deserve the unqualified wrath that many seem to continuously throw his way.

[moonslav59]

Ben is drawing a lot of interest for the Braves GM position. Cashman tried to hire Ben right after he left the Sox because the Yankees were going into rebuild. It seems to me that other organizations think very highly of Ben's 5 year plan.

 

The thing about a 5 year plan is that it usually takes 5 years. Go figure.

 

But in the midst of all that, Ben was able to bring us a World Championship. Not too shabby.

 

...and no first overall picks like the Astros got during their "rebuild."

[jacksonianmarch]

Kimmi, the problem with Ben's "5 year plan" was that he gambled on clearly the wrong horses when he was spending big money. He grew a tremendous minor league roster. But when your big signings, your "Uncle John, please dole out some money on these guys" moves are Hanley Ramirez out of position and Fat Panda for 5 years, you lose credibility. Ben can build, but he was paralyzed when it came to dealing away prospects and his FA signings were nothing to write home about.

 

Part of building is being willing to deal. Every player has his price. Ben fell in love with his prospects and that was his downfall. He wouldn't move anyone, so he had to sign to fill his roster, and he always seemed to sign someone who turned into a pumpkin rapidly

[harmony]

...and no first overall picks like the Astros got during their "rebuild."

The Astros' first overall picks were Carlos Correa in 2012, Mark Appel in 2013 and Brady Aiken in 2014.

 

Other highest picks for Houston included Delino DeShields No. 8 in 2010, George Springer No. 11 in 2011 and Alex Bregman No. 2 in 2015.

[moonslav59]

Kimmi, the problem with Ben's "5 year plan" was that he gambled on clearly the wrong horses when he was spending big money. He grew a tremendous minor league roster. But when your big signings, your "Uncle John, please dole out some money on these guys" moves are Hanley Ramirez out of position and Fat Panda for 5 years, you lose credibility. Ben can build, but he was paralyzed when it came to dealing away prospects and his FA signings were nothing to write home about.

 

Part of building is being willing to deal. Every player has his price. Ben fell in love with his prospects and that was his downfall. He wouldn't move anyone, so he had to sign to fill his roster, and he always seemed to sign someone who turned into a pumpkin rapidly

 

His biggest signings were a bust. The ones that worked worked for only one year (2013 & Vic, Naps, Dempster). He did have a few signings that worked out well, but we remember the big busts more (and for good reason, since they are still killing us).

 

Ben inherited a 3rd place team with a relatively weak farm and a roster and budget with these guys on it:

 

(JD Drew, Papelbon, VTek and Wake all becoming FAs or retiring)

 

Crawford 6 years x $21M+

 

Beckett $17M x 3

 

Dice-K $10.3M/1

 

Youk $12.2M/1

 

Jenks $6M/1

 

His significant moves:

 

The good...

Resigned Andrew Miller after 8.54 & 5.54 ERA seasons and moved him to strictly the pen.

Traded Lowrie & Weiland for Melancon

Signed Cody Ross

Signed Rich Hill

Podsednik for cash

Breslow for Albers & Podsednik

Wright for Lars Andeson

Webster & de la Rosa for AGon, CC, Beckett & Punto

Signed Jonny Gomes

Signed Victorino

Signed Koji Uehara

Signed Napoli (the first time)

Signed Breslow

Mike Carp for cash

ERod for 2 months of Miller

Robbie Ross for Ranaudo

Signed Badenhop

Sandy Leon for cash

de Aza & cash for Gunkel

 

The so-so

Clay Mortensen for Scutaro

Signed Dempster

Signed Stephen Drew (the first time)

Peavy for Iggy & Montas

Hembree & Escobar for Peavy

Marco Hernandez for Doubront

Miley for DLR & Webster

Hanigan for Middy

 

 

The ?????

1 yr 2 mos. Cespedes & draft pick for 2 mos. of Lester & Gomes

Porcello for Cespedes & Alex Wilson

Joe Kelly & Craig for Lackey

 

The bad...

Holt & Hanrahan for Melancon & scraps

Signed Stephen Drew (the second time)

Signed AJ Pierzynski

Signed Mujica

 

 

The ugly,,,

Reddick for Bailey & Sweeney

Signed Pablo

Signed HRam

Signed Masterson

 

Int'l signings, drafted & signed:

Beni

Devers

Moncada

Kopech

Espinoza

Lin

L Basabe

L basabe

J Guerra

Chavis

Maddox

Travis

Marrero

B Johnson

Taylor

D Hernandez

J Diaz

Ockimey

Mars

J Haley

 

R Castillo

TBall

T Stanki

Edited October 31, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The Astros' first overall picks were Carlos Correa in 2012, Mark Appel in 2013 and Brady Aiken in 2014.

 

Other highest picks for Houston included Delino DeShields No. 8 in 2010, George Springer No. 11 in 2011 and Alex Bregman No. 2 in 2015.

 

Our highest picks those years:

 

20th Vitek 2010 (Theo)

19th Barnes, 26th Swhart 2011 (Theo)

 

24th Marrero 2012 (Ben)

7th TBall 2013

26th Chavis 2014, 33 Kopech

7th Beni 2015 (Ben)

 

 

[Nick]

Dombrowski did not bring the Red Sox back to back division titles. Ben and Theo did. Even the players that Dombrowski brought in were only made possible by the great work of his predecessors.

 

Give me a freaking break. I guess until every Sox player dies, all success is attributable to Theo. Theo the God. Hell, he won two division titles this year according to you and your elk.

 

Yes HE WON TWO DIVISION TITLES.

[Slasher9]

What a fickle fanbase, lol. Dan wasn't a mystery when he was hired. It wasn't like he was hiding his true identity and was laughing maniacally after being hired. Henry knew he was hiring a guy who was going to turn the sox into a winner now and sell the future. You don't hire DD if you want a home grown team that will reap minor league fruit on a yearly basis. You get Dan when you want your farm system to be turned into high producing veterans right now. Dan turned a two time last place finishing team and turned them into 2 time AL East winners. You cannot blame Dan for that. In doing so, Dan created a cliff. The merits of his hiring will be in the world series titles. You don't hire a guy to decimate your farm and win NOW if you anticipate early October exits. He completed objective #1, which was turn the sox into a winner. He has yet to complete objective #2 and win the big one.

 

BTW, the funniest thing here is the reversal of roles in the AL East. The sox became the mercenarial machine, the unlikable team of guys who seem to have no chemistry but out-talent teams they play against. And the Yankees became the upstart team of home grown stars who are very likable and make up for their lack of experience with a cohesive clubhouse chemistry. Weird how that table turned

 

This whole post is f***ing ********. There is nothing likable about the slugs from the Bronx. Nothing. The only people that find them likable are their lame ass "fans".

[notin]

What a fickle fanbase,

 

BTW, the funniest thing here is the reversal of roles in the AL East. The sox became the mercenarial machine, the unlikable team of guys who seem to have no chemistry but out-talent teams they play against. And the Yankees became the upstart team of home grown stars who are very likable and make up for their lack of experience with a cohesive clubhouse chemistry. Weird how that table turned

 

Yet the "younger, homegrown stars" still have the higher payroll, and fewer cheaper, homegrown players. ..

[Spudboy]

What a fickle fanbase, lol. Dan wasn't a mystery when he was hired. It wasn't like he was hiding his true identity and was laughing maniacally after being hired. Henry knew he was hiring a guy who was going to turn the sox into a winner now and sell the future. You don't hire DD if you want a home grown team that will reap minor league fruit on a yearly basis. You get Dan when you want your farm system to be turned into high producing veterans right now. Dan turned a two time last place finishing team and turned them into 2 time AL East winners. You cannot blame Dan for that. In doing so, Dan created a cliff. The merits of his hiring will be in the world series titles. You don't hire a guy to decimate your farm and win NOW if you anticipate early October exits. He completed objective #1, which was turn the sox into a winner. He has yet to complete objective #2 and win the big one.

 

BTW, the funniest thing here is the reversal of roles in the AL East. The sox became the mercenarial machine, the unlikable team of guys who seem to have no chemistry but out-talent teams they play against. And the Yankees became the upstart team of home grown stars who are very likable and make up for their lack of experience with a cohesive clubhouse chemistry. Weird how that table turned

 

Why do you call Dombrowski Dan?

[Spudboy]

Give me a freaking break. I guess until every Sox player dies, all success is attributable to Theo. Theo the God. Hell, he won two division titles this year according to you and your elk.

 

Yes HE WON TWO DIVISION TITLES.

 

lol

[Bellhorn04]

He was not rebuilding our pitching staff from virtually nothing. He had already signed Price. Porcello and ERod were already on the staff. He should not have traded away all of those prospects for Kimbrel. Those prospects could have been put to better use, and that trade started the snowball, IMO. I was actually okay with the trade for Pomeranz. At the time that it happened, he did not need to trade for Sale. Acquiring Sale was overkill.

 

Sale and Kimbrel had a combined fWAR of 11.0 this year (combined bWAR of 9.7) on a team that won 93 games and won the division by 2 games.

 

They were 2 of our top 4 players.

 

I don't get how you can criticize them as unnecessary moves.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why do you call Dombrowski Dan?

 

That’s funny, lol. I’m not sure. I had just seen Forrest Gump again. Maybe that did it?

[Jack Flap]

Give me a freaking break. I guess until every Sox player dies, all success is attributable to Theo. Theo the God. Hell, he won two division titles this year according to you and your elk.

 

Yes HE WON TWO DIVISION TITLES.

 

Hey man, don't bring Kimmi's elk into this.

 

[SoxnCycles]

Hey man, don't bring Kimmi's elk into this.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]562[/ATTACH]

 

LOL

Kimmi always struck me as more of a reindeer person.

[moonslav59]

Or maybe Caribou.

 

[moonslav59]

Chavis got his first two starts at 1B- making one error.

 

Owens didn't walk a batter in his last start! He did, hwever, let up 5 runs in 4 innings. Looks like it's time to non tender him.

 

Travis is learning LF.

 

Swihart is catching and has these numbers in 8 games: .417/.517/.500.

 

Brentz hit 3 HRs in one Mexican Pacific League game.

 

[Maxbialystock]

This might not fit this thread, but I hesitate to start another. Has anyone else commented that the three coaches--Butterfield, Davis, and Willis--just let go by the Sox were immediately picked up by successful teams, the Guardians and the Cubs?

 

Relatedly, was this DD or Cora's decision to let them go?

[Spudboy]

This might not fit this thread, but I hesitate to start another. Has anyone else commented that the three coaches--Butterfield, Davis, and Willis--just let go by the Sox were immediately picked up by successful teams, the Guardians and the Cubs?

 

Relatedly, was this DD or Cora's decision to let them go?

 

That would appear to be a DD decision. They were told they could talk with other teams shortly after Farrell was let go and long before Cora was chosen.

[harmony]

Chavis got his first two starts at 1B- making one error.

 

Owens didn't walk a batter in his last start! He did, hwever, let up 5 runs in 4 innings. Looks like it's time to non tender him.

 

Travis is learning LF.

 

Swihart is catching and has these numbers in 8 games: .417/.517/.500.

 

Brentz hit 3 HRs in one Mexican Pacific League game.

Michael Chavis was the lone Red Sox prospect selected to play in the Fall Stars Game despite posting a modest .269/.316/.423/.739 line in 52 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/10/31/16580212/michael-chavis-arizona-fall-league-all-star-game

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=p_pbp&pid=656308

 

Peoria Javelina teammate Eric Filia was left off the Fall Stars roster despite posting a .410/.500/.641/1.141 line in 39 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees prospects are absolutely dominating the AFL

[oldtimer]

Yankees prospects are absolutely dominating the AFL

 

Funny, as a lot of them will probably be traded away.

[Kimmi]

What a fickle fanbase, lol. Dan wasn't a mystery when he was hired. It wasn't like he was hiding his true identity and was laughing maniacally after being hired. Henry knew he was hiring a guy who was going to turn the sox into a winner now and sell the future. You don't hire DD if you want a home grown team that will reap minor league fruit on a yearly basis. You get Dan when you want your farm system to be turned into high producing veterans right now. Dan turned a two time last place finishing team and turned them into 2 time AL East winners. You cannot blame Dan for that. In doing so, Dan created a cliff. The merits of his hiring will be in the world series titles. You don't hire a guy to decimate your farm and win NOW if you anticipate early October exits. He completed objective #1, which was turn the sox into a winner. He has yet to complete objective #2 and win the big one.

 

BTW, the funniest thing here is the reversal of roles in the AL East. The sox became the mercenarial machine, the unlikable team of guys who seem to have no chemistry but out-talent teams they play against. And the Yankees became the upstart team of home grown stars who are very likable and make up for their lack of experience with a cohesive clubhouse chemistry. Weird how that table turned

 

I was concerned the minute Dombrowski was hired. I did not like the apparent change in organizational philosophy.

 

Your second paragraph is hogwash.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, the problem with Ben's "5 year plan" was that he gambled on clearly the wrong horses when he was spending big money. He grew a tremendous minor league roster. But when your big signings, your "Uncle John, please dole out some money on these guys" moves are Hanley Ramirez out of position and Fat Panda for 5 years, you lose credibility. Ben can build, but he was paralyzed when it came to dealing away prospects and his FA signings were nothing to write home about.

 

Part of building is being willing to deal. Every player has his price. Ben fell in love with his prospects and that was his downfall. He wouldn't move anyone, so he had to sign to fill his roster, and he always seemed to sign someone who turned into a pumpkin rapidly

 

I can pretty much guarantee you that Ben did not sign Pablo. That signing goes so much against his MO that it isn't even funny. I can see Ben being responsible for Hanley.

 

If Ben had been allowed to follow his plan through, he would have dealt some of his prospects. He hadn't dealt them previously because it wasn't time to do so in the 5 year plan.