A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

No one should hold Porcello's 2016 season against him. But his 2015 and 2017 seasons were certainly big disappointments.

 

Porcello had a decent 2nd half in 2015.

[moonslav59]

Top Free Agents this Winter

 

1B/DH:

Santana

Hosmer

Duda

Morrison

Alonso

Moreland

 

OF or DH:

JD Martinez

*J Upton

L Cain

C Gonzalez

J Bruce

M Cabrera

C Rasmus

J Werth

C Beltran

J Jaso

 

3B:

Moustakas

E Nunez

T Frazier

T Plouffe

 

SP'ers:

Arrieta

Darvish

Cobb

*Tanaka

*Cueto

W-Y Chen

Estrada

Sabathia

 

2B:

N Walker

H Kendrick

D Espinosa

B Lawrie

B Phillips

 

SS:

Z Cozart

A Escobar

*JJ Hardy

 

Catcher:

Lucroy

C Ruiz

W Castillo

 

RP'ers:

W Davis

J McGee

B Shaw

T Watson

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello had a decent 2nd half in 2015.

 

Too little too late though.

[moonslav59]

From 2014 to 2016, Rick placed...

 

24th in WAR (9.6)

28th in WHIP (1.18)

38th in ERA- (91)

 

While those numbers were largely driven by 2016, his overall 3 year numbers look pretty decent...maybe not Cy Young worthy, but not too bad either.

 

2014-2017: (150 qualifying SP'ers)

 

24th in WAR (11.7)

56th ERA- (94)

 

Note: other Sox pitchers (2014-2017 ERA- rankings

 

6. Sale 72

19. Pom 80

20. Price 80

56. Porc 94

66. ERod 97

 

[Bellhorn04]

From 2014 to 2016, Rick placed...

 

24th in WAR (9.6)

28th in WHIP (1.18)

38th in ERA- (91)

 

While those numbers were largely driven by 2016, his overall 3 year numbers look pretty decent...maybe not Cy Young worthy, but not too bad either.

 

2014-2017: (150 qualifying SP'ers)

 

24th in WAR (11.7)

56th ERA- (94)

 

Note: other Sox pitchers (2014-2017 ERA- rankings

 

6. Sale 72

19. Pom 80

20. Price 80

56. Porc 94

66. ERod 97

 

 

Where'd Lackey rank 2014-2016?

[Slasher9]

why not this:

Stanton LF

 

this needs to happen.

[mvp 78]

why not this:

Stanton LF

 

this needs to happen.

 

What's the trade?

 

Why dump MLB talent for one guy when you can get a FA that would approximate his value?

[sk7326]

why not this:

Stanton LF

 

this needs to happen.

 

Considering the cost - it almost certainly does not need to happen. Bogaerts without some concrete proof that last year was injury related (my guess) ain't going to be a centerpiece for that deal. Betts is a better player than Stanton. Bradley is a good player but clearly not a match (and he's Stanton's age basically). Benintendi and Devers - you don't want to give up the production:cost control there.

[Slasher9]

What's the trade?

 

Why dump MLB talent for one guy when you can get a FA that would approximate his value?

 

Benintendi.

IMO none of the FA choices come close to what Stanton would bring to the Red Sox.

Stanton is my unicorn.

[Slasher9]

Considering the cost - it almost certainly does not need to happen. Bogaerts without some concrete proof that last year was injury related (my guess) ain't going to be a centerpiece for that deal. Betts is a better player than Stanton. Bradley is a good player but clearly not a match (and he's Stanton's age basically). Benintendi and Devers - you don't want to give up the production:cost control there.

 

Benintendi is what it would take to get it done. and i would do it. in a second.

[sk7326]

Benintendi is what it would take to get it done. and i would do it. in a second.

 

Benintendi would be a starting point ...

[mvp 78]

Benintendi would be a starting point ...

 

Right, if it was just Beni for Stanton, everyone would do it. The trade would be Beni plus ERod plus two more guys at least (Groome and Chavis?).

 

Stanton is great, but JD is available for just cash.

[Nick]

Right, if it was just Beni for Stanton, everyone would do it. The trade would be Beni plus ERod plus two more guys at least (Groome and Chavis?).

 

Stanton is great, but JD is available for just cash.

 

I'd do your 4 for 1 deal in a heartbeat. You're talking about 60 freakin home runs. We have no idea Groome and Chavis will be in the majors. E Rod is replaceable.

[moonslav59]

Where'd Lackey rank 2014-2016?

 

29th in WAR, but he was only under our control through 2015 not 2016.

 

He ranked 46th from 2010-2015. 91st in ERA- at 99.

 

2014-2015 alone:

28th in WAR

21st in ERA- at 85

 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know what it will take to get Stanton.

 

There's only a few teams that can afford him.

 

His $25M luxury tax cost is better than his actual cost, so he may be worth more to the handful of teams that are straddling the line or going over in the next few years.

 

JD Martinez is not really comparable to Stanton, but he only costs money and for less years, too.

[Hugh2]

It's hard to know what it will take to get Stanton.

 

There's only a few teams that can afford him.

 

His $25M luxury tax cost is better than his actual cost, so he may be worth more to the handful of teams that are straddling the line or going over in the next few years.

 

JD Martinez is not really comparable to Stanton, but he only costs money and for less years, too.

 

My guess is a package of Benintendi/Erod/Groome could get you there if not close. Maybe for that package you could get them to swallow Hanleys deal too. They still get a ton of money off their books, it makes the money even for us for the next 1-2 years and they get a potential TOTRS, a MOTRS now for a few years and a young controllable outfielder for the next 5 years.

 

If we're willing to go above the LT threshold we could easily go out and sign Martinez and then have a lineup that looks like

 

Betts

Pedey

Stanton

Martinez

Bogaerts

Devers

JBJ

Vasquez

Travis

[devildavid]

Barring injury , I expect more power production from the team as a whole. With Betts, Benintendi, a full season of Devers, a healthy JBJ and Hanley; I see 5 hitters with at least 20 HRs. I also expect 30 or more 2Bs from these hitters. In addition, Pedey and Bogey (if healthy) should also hit at least 30 2Bs, and maybe hit double digits in HRs.

 

Plate appearances were down substantially in 2017 for JBJ, Hanley, and Pedey due to injury.

 

The one key area that needs a bit of improvement is OBP, which is harder to get a read on. Only Pedey seemed to be able to excel in this area in his limited playing time. The other key hitters dropped off from their 2016 results for the most part. I'm not sure what to expect for 2018.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd do your 4 for 1 deal in a heartbeat. You're talking about 60 freakin home runs. We have no idea Groome and Chavis will be in the majors. E Rod is replaceable.

 

Stanton is a big talent, maybe a consistent .900 OPS guy if he stays healthy. But he won't be averaging any 60 HR's a year. MLB might even look to deaden the baseball or something...not everyone was thrilled about the big spike in HR's this year.

[devildavid]

Stanton is a big talent, maybe a consistent .900 OPS guy if he stays healthy. But he won't be averaging any 60 HR's a year. MLB might even look to deaden the baseball or something...not everyone was thrilled about the big spike in HR's this year.

 

That wouldn't stop a healthy Stanton from hitting HR's. My main concern with him is that we are all starry eyed about his latest season and we are not looking at his past history of injuries. He is a great talent, to be sure, but what will it really take to get him? His 2017 is history. It is worth nothing to any team that might trade for him.

Edited October 16, 2017 by devildavid

[Bellhorn04]

That wouldn't stop a health Stanton from hitting HR's. My main concern with him is that we are all starry eyed about his latest season and we are not looking at his past history of injuries. He is a great talent, to be sure, but what will it really take to get him? His 2017 is history. It is worth nothing to any team that might trade for him.

 

Yes, the Recency Effect is large.

[moonslav59]

My guess is a package of Benintendi/Erod/Groome could get you there if not close. Maybe for that package you could get them to swallow Hanleys deal too. They still get a ton of money off their books, it makes the money even for us for the next 1-2 years and they get a potential TOTRS, a MOTRS now for a few years and a young controllable outfielder for the next 5 years.

 

If we're willing to go above the LT threshold we could easily go out and sign Martinez and then have a lineup that looks like

 

Betts

Pedey

Stanton

Martinez

Bogaerts

Devers

JBJ

Vasquez

Travis

 

I think, if they take on HRam's salary, we'd need to add a lot more to the deal.

 

I like the plan, though.

 

If we will need to sign a SP'er, too. Cobb would probably put us over the second tier limit.

[sk7326]

Stanton has also missed a lot of games for someone to sell the farm on ...

[bosoxmal]

Hereismy dream lineup for 2018

 

Nunez 2b

Beni CF

Betts RF

Martinez LF

Hismer 1B

Devers 3B

Moreland/Hanley DH

Vasquez C

Boegarts SS

 

Case closed. Go get 'emmDD (it's not my money!?

[moonslav59]

Hereismy dream lineup for 2018

 

Nunez 2b

Beni CF

Betts RF

Martinez LF

Hismer 1B

Devers 3B

Moreland/Hanley DH

Vasquez C

Boegarts SS

 

Case closed. Go get 'emmDD (it's not my money!?

 

Please. No Hosmer.

[Hugh2]

I think, if they take on HRam's salary, we'd need to add a lot more to the deal.

 

I like the plan, though.

 

If we will need to sign a SP'er, too. Cobb would probably put us over the second tier limit.

 

If they take on that contract, they're still taking probably $225 million of their books and getting back Benintendi/Erod/Groome. You had to give up 2 top prospects in all of the baseballs to get Sale for 3 years but at a better contract.

 

Is Moncada/Kopech > Benintendi/Erod/Groome + taking on more money? IDK, I'd argue yes but at the end of the day if another team is willing to pay more you'd have to up that offer.

 

I think dealing Erod opens the door to signing SP depth in too, where guys weren't willing to come to Boston now they may be. Plus we have Wright coming back too and perhaps Fister would be interested in competing for the 5th spot.

[moonslav59]

If they take on that contract, they're still taking probably $225 million of their books and getting back Benintendi/Erod/Groome. You had to give up 2 top prospects in all of the baseballs to get Sale for 3 years but at a better contract.

 

Is Moncada/Kopech > Benintendi/Erod/Groome + taking on more money? IDK, I'd argue yes but at the end of the day if another team is willing to pay more you'd have to up that offer.

 

I think dealing Erod opens the door to signing SP depth in too, where guys weren't willing to come to Boston now they may be. Plus we have Wright coming back too and perhaps Fister would be interested in competing for the 5th spot.

 

Personally, I do not think the package is going to have to be all that big. I doubt it will take JBJ, ERod and Groome.

 

I think we might get him for JBJ and maybe 2 from: Groome, Chavis, Mata and Flores.

 

Why should Stanton cost us more than Sale? Sale's making half what Stanton is making per year.

 

If we thro in HRam, maybe it will take Beni + 2 of the three, or JBJ and 3 of the 4 listed above.

[oldtimer]

Personally, I do not think the package is going to have to be all that big. I doubt it will take JBJ, ERod and Groome.

 

I think we might get him for JBJ and maybe 2 from: Groome, Chavis, Mata and Flores.

 

Why should Stanton cost us more than Sale? Sale's making half what Stanton is making per year.

 

If we thro in HRam, maybe it will take Beni + 2 of the three, or JBJ and 3 of the 4 listed above.

 

Beni has a chance of being an excellent player for the Sox for a long while into the future with improvements to his game expected. I can't see trading him away in any deal.

[Hugh2]

Beni has a chance of being an excellent player for the Sox for a long while into the future with improvements to his game expected. I can't see trading him away in any deal.

 

Well that's precisely the type of player you have to give up to get a guy like Stanton. The Sox don't have the farm system to pull off a Stanton trade, I'm sure Miami would love guys like Groome, Mata, and Chavis in their system but those would have to be augmented with MLB pieces and Benintendi has more years of control....which is precisely what you're looking for when you trade a guy like Stanton away. You're rebuilding so you want the guy who is cost controlled for more years.

[moonslav59]

Well that's precisely the type of player you have to give up to get a guy like Stanton. The Sox don't have the farm system to pull off a Stanton trade, I'm sure Miami would love guys like Groome, Mata, and Chavis in their system but those would have to be augmented with MLB pieces and Benintendi has more years of control....which is precisely what you're looking for when you trade a guy like Stanton away. You're rebuilding so you want the guy who is cost controlled for more years.

 

Depends on their plan for when they want to be competitive. They might write off 2-3 years like the Astros did, and look to 2000 or 2001. If that's the case, the may prefer Mata and Flores to JBJ or Bogey.

[moonslav59]

Beni has a chance of being an excellent player for the Sox for a long while into the future with improvements to his game expected. I can't see trading him away in any deal.

 

I share your enthusiasm for Beni, but we're talking...

 

 

Giancarlo Freakin' Stanton!