A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[jad]

I don't know to what extent leadership (or lack thereof) affects the win column, but the fact is we have no natural leader among the players. Pedroia seems to think he is when in actuality he threw his teammates under the bus and sided with an opponent. Price - I don't know if he thinks he's a leader but he's been a douche with a fragile psyche. Farrell, the actual leader, allowed these to happen, seemingly without repercussion. I tend to believe having a player who will marshal the troops is a more positive thing than not, irrespective of results.

 

Agree. They lose their supposed leader in Papi, and now have, we are told, no leadership whatsoever. And the results are identical. That's sports. So getting rid of Farrell, and bringing in a player who has some hope of preventing public embarrassments (most of them caused by Price) seems to have nothing to do with wins/losses. I'm fine with that, but I guess I'd like to see management say that directly (they of course will not), perhaps putting DP and others on notice that ordinary standards of work-place behavior apply to them as well as to most of their fans.

[moonslav59]

I'm in agreement with you, especially since rosters across the majors are skewing younger as GMs realize the value of cost certainty and building from within. On the other hand, you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, but I want at worst a balance between the youth movement and value for money for any big contracts. We know they've been burned, but we also know the environment in which MLB operates; if you want the top guys, you've got to offer a lot of years. It's beyond counter-intuitive but that's the reality we're living in.

 

We got a lot younger this year and kept the same record as last year. That's not even counting Devers for a full year.

 

25 and under:

2016: 1917 PA

2017: 2468 PA

 

26-30

2016: 1968

2017: 1959

 

31-35

2016: 1809

2017: 1873

 

36+

2016: 626

2017: 38

 

Rajaj DAvis (36) will not be back.

HRam (33) could have a dimished role next year and be gone by 2019.

Pedey (33) is the only older guy locked up long term.

Fister (33) FA

Kendrick (32) FA

Wright (32) 6th starter

Moreland (31) FA

Abad (31) FA

Holt (29) Utility and on non-tender bubble

 

Kimbrel and Kelly are 29.

 

Everyone else is 28 or younger.

 

I'm not too worried about signing one 32 year old guy to 4-5 years.

 

I am worried about the budget and how it might affect us keeping our kids 3-4 years from now.

[Northern Star]

 

I am worried about the budget and how it might affect us keeping our kids 3-4 years from now.

 

I guess that's what I was alluding to in my typical roundabout way.

[Slasher9]

apparently the Nationals are the pre 2004 Boston Red Sox. how many times can they lose a heartbreaking deciding game?

[moonslav59]

apparently the Nationals are the pre 2004 Boston Red Sox. how many times can they lose a heartbreaking deciding game?

 

86 years for the pre-2004 Sox.

 

Less than 50 for the Nats/Expos.

[jad]

apparently the Nationals are the pre 2004 Boston Red Sox. how many times can they lose a heartbreaking deciding game?

 

Well, since the RS so rarely HAD deciding games before 2004 (trying to think-- 1967? 76 was it? then 86? and maybe there was the Yastrzemski pop-up in ... 1978?, then Pesky holds the ball before I was born ...). Looks like about once every decade or so. After the Mets debacle, didn't they get swept three series in a row? (The deciding games of those might have been depressing at best!)

[moonslav59]

Well, since the RS so rarely HAD deciding games before 2004 (trying to think-- 1967? 76 was it? then 86? and maybe there was the Yastrzemski pop-up in ... 1978?, then Pesky holds the ball before I was born ...). Looks like about once every decade or so. After the Mets debacle, didn't they get swept three series in a row? (The deciding games of those might have been depressing at best!)

 

We had tons more deciding games than the Nats. You're just listing our losses in the WS. The Nats have never lost a WS deciding game. If you count all our playoff losses in deciding games, including 2003's heart-breaker, then we are way ahead of the Nats.

[illinoisredsox]

Well, since the RS so rarely HAD deciding games before 2004 (trying to think-- 1967? 76 was it? then 86? and maybe there was the Yastrzemski pop-up in ... 1978?, then Pesky holds the ball before I was born ...). Looks like about once every decade or so. After the Mets debacle, didn't they get swept three series in a row? (The deciding games of those might have been depressing at best!)

 

Just limiting it to winner take all games, the Sox have a ton more, even if you limit it to just the life of the Expos/Nationals:

 

1912 World Series (Win)

1946 World Series (Loss)

1948 AL Playoff (Loss)

1967 World Series (Loss)

_______________________________

1975 World Series (Loss)

1978 AL East Playoff (Loss)

1986 ALCS (Win)

1986 World Series (Loss)

1999 ALDS (Win)

2003 ALDS (Win)

2003 ALCS (Loss)

2004 ALCS (Win)

2007 ALCS (Win)

2008 ALCS (Loss)

 

 

There may be others, these are off the top of my head.

[sk7326]

one of the quirky things about the Red Sox is that they - since 1999 - a pretty remarkable record in "lose or go home" games

 

1999 ALDS 3-0

1999 ALCS 0-1

2003 ALDS 3-0

2003 ALCS 1-1

2004 ALCS 4-0

2005 ALDS 0-1

2007 ALCS 3-0

2008 ALCS 2-1

2009 ALDS 0-1

2016 ALDS 0-1

2017 ALDS 1-1

 

TOTAL 17-7

[Slasher9]

October 2003 was the worst moment in my life.

exactly 1 year later was one of the best moments in my life.

 

the Nats scored 8 runs at home in a deciding series game. you HAVE to win that game. that's some bad mojo they have going on right now....

[sk7326]

October 2003 was the worst moment in my life.

exactly 1 year later was one of the best moments in my life.

 

the Nats scored 8 runs at home in a deciding series game. you HAVE to win that game. that's some bad mojo they have going on right now....

 

I am grateful for 2003 NOW, because it made 2004 100 times better. I am happy for Cubs fans that they got to see a curse broken. But I am comfortable asserting the 2004 Red Sox title was the sweetest championship any fan base for any team could have ever had.

 

I am 39. 2003 was the first time I thought the Red Sox would never win it all. The 2004 ALCS win (not even the World Series!) - well, yeah my marriage and kids were better moments in my life ... BUT I had a decent sense I would get married or have children one day ... I did not expect to see the Red Sox win the WS

[sk7326]

October 2003 was the worst moment in my life.

exactly 1 year later was one of the best moments in my life.

 

the Nats scored 8 runs at home in a deciding series game. you HAVE to win that game. that's some bad mojo they have going on right now....

 

The Nats blew 3 and 6 run leads at home in deciding games since 2012 - that is tough to live through.

[Slasher9]

I am grateful for 2003 NOW, because it made 2004 100 times better. I am happy for Cubs fans that they got to see a curse broken. But I am comfortable asserting the 2004 Red Sox title was the sweetest championship any fan base for any team could have ever had.

 

I am 39. 2003 was the first time I thought the Red Sox would never win it all. The 2004 ALCS win (not even the World Series!) - well, yeah my marriage and kids were better moments in my life ... BUT I had a decent sense I would get married or have children one day ... I did not expect to see the Red Sox win the WS

 

excellent point. 2003 made 2004 more unbelievable than a movie script.

i have stated it since then....no fanbase of any team in any sport has ever felt the Euphoria/Pure Joy that Red Sox fans felt in October 2004. not even close.

[OH FOY]

Glad I'm not Matt Wieters.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/10/13/nationals-cubs-game-five-fifth-inning-max-scherzer-matt-wieters/760800001/?src=rss

[Bellhorn04]

October 2003 was the worst moment in my life.

exactly 1 year later was one of the best moments in my life.

 

the Nats scored 8 runs at home in a deciding series game. you HAVE to win that game. that's some bad mojo they have going on right now....

 

Yeah that was a very painful loss...I actually felt bad for Scherzer...he didn't really deserve to have a nightmare inning like that.

[Slasher9]

Glad I'm not Matt Wieters.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/10/13/nationals-cubs-game-five-fifth-inning-max-scherzer-matt-wieters/760800001/?src=rss

 

while watching the game i felt bad for him. epic demise. i dont think he will fall asleep without a bottle of jack daniels for at least a month....

[mvp 78]

I am grateful for 2003 NOW, because it made 2004 100 times better. I am happy for Cubs fans that they got to see a curse broken. But I am comfortable asserting the 2004 Red Sox title was the sweetest championship any fan base for any team could have ever had.

 

I am 39. 2003 was the first time I thought the Red Sox would never win it all. The 2004 ALCS win (not even the World Series!) - well, yeah my marriage and kids were better moments in my life ... BUT I had a decent sense I would get married or have children one day ... I did not expect to see the Red Sox win the WS

 

2003 - I punched the s*** out of my work van

2004 - I hugged some random stranger who wanted to sell me drugs

2011 - I'm never posting on TalkSox again

2017 - Dank memes and conspiracy theories

[devildavid]

I think you're minimizing the scope of decline.

 

By the quantity: our 8 highest returning players by 2016 PAs declined. ALL EIGHT!

 

That's like flipping heads 8 times in a row.

 

9 of 10 declined. Only Vaz improved.

 

 

By the quality:

 

-201 Leon

-157 Holt

-141 Young

-116 HRam

-109 JBJ

-94 Betts

-65 Pedey

-59 Beni

-56 Bogey

+150 Vaz

 

Again, yes HRam, Pedey and Leon were expected to decline, but even with those three, it wouldn't have been unheard of for one out of 3 could have at least stayed even.

 

6 out of the top 8 declined by more 94 points! That's not "reasonable".

 

Speaking of staying even, yes, maybe our expectations were too high, but even the expectation that all 8 stayed even would have come up way short. All 8 declined by over 55 points. That's a pretty significant number. Not one came even 55 points within staying even.

 

I'm fine with blaming Papi's departure, poor coaching, injuries, and whatever, but the fact is, the decline was major and deep.

 

 

It was a major drop off from 2016, no question.

 

It is probably too early to get a good read on performance expectations for the young core.

 

How would anyone feel about a player with this stat line in his first 6 season?: .266/.348/.461/.809

[d-money]

Wouldn't shock me if the cubs get back to the World Series.

[sk7326]

Wouldn't shock me if the cubs get back to the World Series.

 

It's the baseball playoffs. I could believe almost any of the hundreds of possible outcomes of the tournament.

[mvp 78]

Wouldn't shock me if the cubs get back to the World Series.

 

Well, yeah, they are in the NLCS.

[moonslav59]

It was a major drop off from 2016, no question.

 

It is probably too early to get a good read on performance expectations for the young core.

 

How would anyone feel about a player with this stat line in his first 6 season?: .266/.348/.461/.809

 

I'd feel good, but I'd want to see his last 2 year numbers to judge better going forward.

[devildavid]

I'd feel good, but I'd want to see his last 2 year numbers to judge better going forward.

 

Here are his last two seasons: .256/.333/.490/.822

 

Would you expect this from his next 6 seasons?: .297/.398/.598/.996

[moonslav59]

Here are his last two seasons: .256/.333/.490/.822

 

Would you expect this from his next 6 seasons?: .297/.398/.598/.996

 

If he's 28, the age curve numbers say he will decline immediately- maybe slowly at first.

 

I might expect...

 

2018: .965

2019: .935

2020: .900

2021: .860

2022: .810

2023: .760

 

That's knowing nothing of injuries or sample sizes of the past 2-3 years.

 

Who are we talking about?

[devildavid]

If he's 28, the age curve numbers say he will decline immediately- maybe slowly at first.

 

I might expect...

 

2018: .965

2019: .935

2020: .900

2021: .860

2022: .810

2023: .760

 

That's knowing nothing of injuries or sample sizes of the past 2-3 years.

 

Who are we talking about?

 

Ortiz.

 

Believe it or not, I'm not trying to undermine your 2 year assessment barometer, but defend it. Ortiz was not a full time player for his first 6 seasons. He bloomed at age 27 in Boston when he was give the opportunity to be who he really was all along. So it does make sense to sometimes discard early results in careers, especially rookie seasons and part time seasons. There is probably not enough data to really know the full potential of the Sox young core, especially Beni. And you do have to take into account the injuries that happened in 2017 to Bogey. JBJ, and Betts. So I think you are being more than reasonable in expecting improved performances from the offense in 2018 and that 2017 was a big downturn in production that is not completely explained by the absence of Ortiz. I certainly expected better production in 2017 and expect it in 2018 as long as there are no lingering health issues.

[Spudboy]

Breaking news!!!!

 

Henry Owens still sucks.

 

From ESPN: Control remains issue for Owens in AFL

 

Henry Owens made his first start for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League on Thursday, walking five and allowing four runs on two hits in just an inning of work. The left-hander issued 115 free passes in 126 innings in the minors this year.

[moonslav59]

Ortiz.

 

Believe it or not, I'm not trying to undermine your 2 year assessment barometer, but defend it. Ortiz was not a full time player for his first 6 seasons. He bloomed at age 27 in Boston when he was give the opportunity to be who he really was all along. So it does make sense to sometimes discard early results in careers, especially rookie seasons and part time seasons. There is probably not enough data to really know the full potential of the Sox young core, especially Beni. And you do have to take into account the injuries that happened in 2017 to Bogey. JBJ, and Betts. So I think you are being more than reasonable in expecting improved performances from the offense in 2018 and that 2017 was a big downturn in production that is not completely explained by the absence of Ortiz. I certainly expected better production in 2017 and expect it in 2018 as long as there are no lingering health issues.

 

There are always exceptions to every rule or trend/curve, and Papi was certainly one.

 

His last year was one of his all time best!

 

If you had told me the player was 34, I'd have projected a much steeper drop off.

 

I do think a player's last 2-3 years are a better indicators than the career numbers. Of course, if the player was playing hurt for one of the years or had a seemingly outlier year, then adjustments can be included in future projections.

 

No projection system is perfect, but career average is probably nt on of the best stats to use.

[moonslav59]

Breaking news!!!!

 

Henry Owens still sucks.

 

From ESPN: Control remains issue for Owens in AFL

 

Henry Owens made his first start for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League on Thursday, walking five and allowing four runs on two hits in just an inning of work. The left-hander issued 115 free passes in 126 innings in the minors this year.

 

Make room on the roster for a rule 5 player.

 

So long, Henry!

[devildavid]

There are always exceptions to every rule or trend/curve, and Papi was certainly one.

 

His last year was one of his all time best!

 

If you had told me the player was 34, I'd have projected a much steeper drop off.

 

I do think a player's last 2-3 years are a better indicators than the career numbers. Of course, if the player was playing hurt for one of the years or had a seemingly outlier year, then adjustments can be included in future projections.

 

No projection system is perfect, but career average is probably nt on of the best stats to use.

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

Gammons reports that Blake Swihart’s surgically repaired ankle bothered him as late into the season as Labor Day, which would in part explain a disappointing .190/.246/.292 batting line in 53 games at the Triple-A level this year. Swihart, who received just seven MLB plate appearances in 2017, was once one of baseball’s most untouchable prospects but has seen his star fade in the wake of repeated injuries and defensive concerns behind the dish. Nonetheless, one Red Sox exec tells Gammons that with his ability to play catcher, first base, third base and the corner outfield, “Swihart can be a huge part of this team.”