2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Spudboy]

Cheap losses or not. Porcello has stunk onn2 out of 3 season. If wins don’t mean anything , certainly cheap losses mean less. Porcello was a HR batting practice pitcher last year. I would have considered bringing him to HR Derby as my personal pitcher.

 

I don't see a problem.

 

After all, long balls are exciting!

[iortiz]

It doesn't matter how hard you try to bash Porcello, he's been very good in 2 out of 4 seasons. He's been decent or better in 6 of 8 seasons.

 

2 out of 4?

 

2015 he sucked

2016 excellent

2107 he sucked

 

I think you have the bar very low my friend.

[iortiz]

In Tigers uniform he sucked in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, and he was very good in 2014. Benny the Boo considered only that year to make his case and offered him without hesitate 80 M. A year later, when Porcello sucked, The Boo was fired —among other things.

[moonslav59]

2 out of 4?

 

2015 he sucked

2016 excellent

2107 he sucked

 

I think you have the bar very low my friend.

 

2 out of 4, which means go back 1 year (pre-Sox: 15-13 3.43).

[a700hitter]

4.25 ERA over 9 full seasons and almost 1,700 IP. He is a below average starter. For $20 million/yr, he stinks.

[moonslav59]

4.25 ERA over 9 full seasons and almost 1,700 IP. He is a below average starter. For $20 million/yr, he stinks.

 

He didn't get paid $20M for all those years. If you are going to use $20M as the number to criticize him over, then look at the two years he's been paid that amount.

 

33-21 3.86

13th in fWAR

25th in ERA- (87)

22nd in WHIP (1.19) which is ahead of our $31M starter, but you choose to bash Porcello- the guy who actually takes the ball every 5 days.

 

 

 

He started in the majors at a very young age.

 

Edited March 2, 2018 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

2 out of 4, which means go back 1 year (pre-Sox: 15-13 3.43).

 

So you are going to take only the year he performed well in Tigers uniform? LOL!

 

In Tigers uniform he sucked —4/5 bad seasons

In Red Sox uniform, well, he sucks too —2/3 bad seasons.

 

I concur with Ted. A 4.3 ERA pitcher isn’t good by any means, at least not in my book.

[a700hitter]

He didn't get paid $20M for all those years. If you are going to use $20M as the number to criticize him over, then look at the two years he's been paid that amount.

 

33-21 3.86

13th in fWAR

25th in ERA- (87)

22nd in WHIP (1.19) which is ahead of our $31M starter, but you choose to bash Porcello- the guy who actually takes the ball every 5 days.

 

 

 

He started in the majors at a very young age.

 

Players' pay at the $20 million level is largely based on past performance. Nothing in his past indicates that he is worth that kind of coin.

[notin]

Players' pay at the $20 million level is largely based on past performance. Nothing in his past indicates that he is worth that kind of coin.

 

Yeah but most of the players paid for past performance don't live up to it in the bigger deal. Hanley. Sandoval. Etc. This was one of those deals where the hope was the pitcher would perform while actually making the big money. ...

[a700hitter]

Yeah but most of the players paid for past performance don't live up to it in the bigger deal. Hanley. Sandoval. Etc. This was one of those deals where the hope was the pitcher would perform while actually making the big money. ...

That is true, and Porcello didn't earn the contract with his past performance or live up to it or after signing the deal. He still has 2 more years to earn his money, but after 9 years of pitching to a career 4.25 ERA I am not expecting him to elevate his game very much.

[notin]

That is true, and Porcello didn't earn the contract with his past performance or live up to it or after signing the deal. He still has 2 more years to earn his money, but after 9 years of pitching to a career 4.25 ERA I am not expecting him to elevate his game very much.

 

He's also a much better pitcher now than when he was 2 years out of high school. Using only his career ERA does treat all those seasons equally.

 

And really even his first year on Boston ended VERY strong after a DL trip...

[moonslav59]

So you are going to take only the year he performed well in Tigers uniform? LOL!

 

In Tigers uniform he sucked —4/5 bad seasons

In Red Sox uniform, well, he sucks too —2/3 bad seasons.

 

I concur with Ted. A 4.3 ERA pitcher isn’t good by any means, at least not in my book.

 

You chose 3 years. I can see why. They were the 3 years he was with us, and he's only been really good in 1 of the 3.

 

I arbitrarily chose 4 years, so it comes out he did very well in 2 of his last 4 years.

 

He's earned his $40M/2, in my book. Let's see what he gives us the next two. We signed him to 4 prime years and only 4 prime years, something not very common these days.

[baseball jones]

Players' pay at the $20 million level is largely based on past performance. Nothing in his past indicates that he is worth that kind of coin.

 

i got to say i feel the same way about martinez.but now he's ours so,i got to take the ride.....

[harmony]

So you are going to take only the year he performed well in Tigers uniform? LOL!

 

In Tigers uniform he sucked —4/5 bad seasons

In Red Sox uniform, well, he sucks too —2/3 bad seasons.

 

I concur with Ted. A 4.3 ERA pitcher isn’t good by any means, at least not in my book.

A starting pitcher who ranks 35th in American League with 147 innings and posts the league average ERA of 4.54 could be considered an average starter.

 

A starting pitcher who tosses 200 innings with a 4.30 ERA is an above-average starter.

 

Your book sucks.

 

Or not.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2017

Edited March 3, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

He's also a much better pitcher now than when he was 2 years out of high school. Using only his career ERA does treat all those seasons equally.

 

And really even his first year on Boston ended VERY strong after a DL trip...

 

Indeed.

 

The guy started pitching FT at age 20, and people want to hold his first few years against him.

 

It's very common for pitchers to do better once they reach prime.

 

Porcello is not the same pitcher he was from age 20-23 or 24.

 

The numbers show it, and each sample size is very large... large enough to ve valid and telling.

 

first 4 years: (45th in IP at ages 20-23)

48-42 4.55 (107 ERA- and 1.42 WHIP)

 

last 4 years (9th in IP at ages 25-28)

57-49 3.98 (94 ERA- and 1.24 WHIP)

 

Porcello just turned 29. I'm going with the chance he'll be more like the last 4 years than his first 4 years. You guys can go with 4.25 and think he sucks.

 

[a700hitter]

i got to say i feel the same way about martinez.but now he's ours so,i got to take the ride.....

I think J.D.'s number compare very well with the elite sluggers. I saw them published somewhere recently, and the comparison was better than I had expected. My biggest reservation with J.D is whether he can stay on the field for 150 games each season.

[moonslav59]

I think J.D.'s number compare very well with the elite sluggers. I saw them published somewhere recently, and the comparison was better than I had expected. My biggest reservation with J.D is whether he can stay on the field for 150 games each season.

 

JD can certainly rake, when on the field.

 

I'm hoping being a FT DH can help him get 650+ PAs for the second time in his career.

 

(He's actually only been over 517 once, but some seasons were not all due to injury.)

 

[baseball jones]

i'm hoping too.i want him to rake now.

 

its the high average one year or the homeruns the next then high average then homeruns.seems like something hasnt been figured out there.

but whats it matter i'll take either:p

[Bellhorn04]

i'm hoping too.i want him to rake now.

 

its the high average one year or the homeruns the next then high average then homeruns.seems like something hasnt been figured out there.

but whats it matter i'll take either:p

 

I'm an OPS guy myself. JD's OPS numbers have been pretty sweet for a 4 year stretch.

 

2014 912

2015 879

2016 908

2017 1066

 

Those numbers are Ortiz-esque.

[Hugh2]

You have to think JDM can stay healthy as a full-time DH. I almost want to give him a 1B glove if he's ever going to play in the field during interleague games.

 

I don't know how good I feel about benching Betts, JBJ, or Benintendi in favor of JDM lumbering around and pulling something out there.

[moonslav59]

You have to think JDM can stay healthy as a full-time DH. I almost want to give him a 1B glove if he's ever going to play in the field during interleague games.

 

I don't know how good I feel about benching Betts, JBJ, or Benintendi in favor of JDM lumbering around and pulling something out there.

 

I agree, but if JBJ is in one of his all-too-often slumps, and Beni continues to struggle vs LHPs, it wouldn't kill us to give them one of the 3 nights off each. They need rest anyways, so plan it out for NL away games.,

[Larry Cook]

I think Dave needs to be looking for some starting pitching!

[Kimmi]

I think Dave needs to be looking for some starting pitching!

 

Absolutely.

[Hugh2]

I agree, but if JBJ is in one of his all-too-often slumps, and Beni continues to struggle vs LHPs, it wouldn't kill us to give them one of the 3 nights off each. They need rest anyways, so plan it out for NL away games.,

 

I agree, I actually think JDMs value can be maximized in such a way. I'm also hoping his presence in the lineup helps these guys as well.

[MADSTORK]

I think Dave needs to be looking for some starting pitching!

 

Thanks Ben!

[notin]

Thanks Ben!

 

Ben's been gone for 2 1/2 years. Dombrowski has had plenty of time to get pitchers, unless you think the minors is the only possible source. (Even then, Must of the guys in the upper minors on the 40-man roster were drafted by Ben. Johnson, Maddox, Buttery, Martin, Haley)

[Bellhorn04]

I'm about 99% sure Dombrowski will acquire a starting pitcher fairly soon. I'm even wondering if he's trying to talk John Henry into springing for Cobb or Lynn and incurring the tax penalties that would go along with that.

[moonslav59]

I'm about 99% sure Dombrowski will acquire a starting pitcher fairly soon. I'm even wondering if he's trying to talk John Henry into springing for Cobb or Lynn and incurring the tax penalties that would go along with that.

 

It's not really the financial penalties for going $40M over the limit that are worrisome, it's the draft and international signing pools that would be most hurtful, especially to a team looking at a cliff and many claiming we will rebuild the farm somehow- some way. This is not a step that would help us rebuild farm.

[moonslav59]

Ben's been gone for 2 1/2 years. Dombrowski has had plenty of time to get pitchers, unless you think the minors is the only possible source. (Even then, Must of the guys in the upper minors on the 40-man roster were drafted by Ben. Johnson, Maddox, Buttery, Martin, Haley)

 

DD has added Price, Pom (with Ben's prospects), Sale (with Ben's prospects), Elias and Velazquez.

 

In the pen: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg

 

Ben: Porcello, ERod, Wright, Johnson, Beeks, Shephers, Kelly, Hembree, Maddox and Buttrey

 

Theo: Workman, Barnes and R Scott

 

(I may have gotten 1 or two guys wrong or missed somebody here.)

 

[OH FOY]

Espinoza will not even be Pitching this year. TJS is much better these days, but it's never a sure thing. He'll be 21 when he starts all over again, clock starts running quickly about that time.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/anderson-espinoza-tommy-john-surgery-padres.html

Edited March 4, 2018 by OH FOY!