2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[oldtimer]

NJ.com has a brief article speculating that with a stalemate developing between Red Sox management and JDM, the Yankees might be willing to trade some contracts ad clear space for giving jdm 6 years at $150 million. If they want him that badly let them go for it. I still would not budge from the Sox offer to him. Time to move on anyway.

[harmony]

I still don't think people envy Seattle over their soccer viewership ratings or high level of women's basketball interest.

I suspect the net migration between Seattle and Boston suggests the typical Seattle resident does not envy the typical Bostonian.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5229083/Moving-study-People-continuing-west.html

 

I like Boston, a world-class city, even though I've been there only three times in my 62 years on this celestial sphere. I survived 100 degree temperatures there in 1973 as a 17-year-old hitchhiker from Iowa. I did not return until 2010 when a friend and I made Fenway Park the first stop on our eight-day tour of six MLB stadiums on the East Coast. My final trip came in 2016 when my younger daughter competed in the Head of the Charles regatta.

 

Again, Boston is a fine city. But I don't envy the people living there.

[mvp 78]

NJ.com has a brief article speculating that with a stalemate developing between Red Sox management and JDM, the Yankees might be willing to trade some contracts ad clear space for giving jdm 6 years at $150 million. If they want him that badly let them go for it. I still would not budge from the Sox offer to him. Time to move on anyway.

 

There's just no way. They'd be better off waiting for Harper next offseason.

[mvp 78]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/02/12/collusion-tanking-debt-and-baseballs-dark-labor-history-resurfaces-in-2018/#46c5419f176e

 

For those that don’t recall, both the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros went about radical roster reconstruction under new ownership. The matter was simple to Ricketts of the Cubs and Crane of the Astros: bloated contracts for veteran players were hampering flexibility. The term “blowing it up” became the term before “tanking” but the idea that stripping rosters down to young players that saw lower salaries would cause a case of sinking in the standings. There’s the side benefit of landing at the top of the draft heap when you lose a massive number of games.

 

In 2017, the Astros won 101 games and eventually won the World Series. In 2016 it was 84 wins and 2015, 86 wins. Not bad. But in 2014 they lost 92 games, 2013 there was 111 losses, and 107 losses in 2012, and 106 losses in 2011. For the Astros, the idea was pain would eventually equal gain, and as the parade in Houston showed, it paid off.

 

The bad thing is, every owner in baseball looks around at what the one team did to win the World Series and says, “We need to do that.”

 

 

“Our Clubs are committed to putting a winning product on the field for their fans,” Manfred said in a statement to rebut Clark. “Owners own teams for one reason: they want to win. In Baseball, it has always been true that Clubs go through cyclical, multi-year strategies directed at winning.

 

 

There are larger concerns around what clubs are doing to improve themselves, or rather, what they’re not doing. This “invest in homegrown talent” also acts as a cover. The Pittsburgh Pirates were in a position over the last two off-seasons to improve themselves to get past just the Wild Card. Instead, they held pat, and this off-season traded Andrew McCutchen to the Giants and Gerrit Cole to the Astros. This does not fit the league profile for improving in a five-year cycle.

 

 

Other clubs have a legitimate reason for down-cycling. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who have not only spent large in free agency, but at record levels, have been in violation of the league’s debt rule. That was allowed as part of the sale to Guggenheim Partners, but now frowned upon given that the sale was completed in 2012. And LA and the Yankees both have reasons to get under the Luxury Tax threshold. Not only have changes to the tax penalties made it more painful, by getting under the threshold, the tax penalties for the two who have been consecutive offenders of the Luxury Tax will see the penalty drop to 20% by going back under. That plays into the bumper crop of free agents in the 2018-19 free agency class that features the likes of Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, and Manny Machado.

 

 

At some point, either that smoking gun surfaces, or it doesn't. If it doesn't, then the real focus on baseball's labor landscape shifts to when the current basic agreement between the players and the league expires on Dec. 1, 2021. If the players are unhappy about how matters have transpired, they'll need to dig in and try and get better concessions in the next deal. If the landscape continues to move toward clubs investing in young, developed talent, then getting players into salary arbitration early might be one matter they could go after. But even if that's not one area they do chase, it's clear that areas where salaries can increase has to be more the focus than the last time. There's little doubting that matters went the league's way in 2016 with the current labor agreement. If they truly want to gain from the increased revenues that the league is seeing, they could upend the mindset put in place since Marvin Miller was executive director beginning in the 1960s. Tie salaries to baseball related revenues that have now surpassed $10 billion. That would mean a cap system more inline with what other pro leagues currently have.

[Spudboy]

I still don't think people envy Seattle over their soccer viewership ratings or high level of women's basketball interest.

 

Seattle had Spencer Haywood and f***ed that up.

 

It's a minor league city.

[cp176]

Seattle had Spencer Haywood and f***ed that up.

 

It's a minor league city.

 

When it comes to comparing the east with the west, I am always reminded of this little dialogue on the Senate floor many years ago when a proud Senator from the State California made this proclamation about the great symbol of our country. "and here's to the American eagle, that wonderful bird of fame, who builds his nest in the far far west and shits in the state of Maine". Upon hearing this the Senator from the great State of Maine slowly rose to his feet and exclaimed "and here's to the State Of Maine, who's soil is fertile and rich, we don't need the turd from your damned old bird you red headed son of a bitch". This really didn't happen but I do think I am safe in saying that New Englanders in general are quite proud of where they are from.

[harmony]

I call ******** here - you live in a rain forest lol

Boston has an average annual precipitation of 43.76 inches, Seattle an average annual precipitation of 34.1 inches and Portland an average annual precipitation of 35.98 inches.

[Bellhorn04]

Boston has an average annual precipitation of 43.76 inches, Seattle an average annual precipitation of 34.1 inches and Portland an average annual precipitation of 35.98 inches.

 

Sure, if you want to count snow.

[Natick to NC]

Ok so Rosenthall is convinced JD is not coming here ...Time to move on .Hosmer is my choice for 1b the next 7 years .Let Mitchy Two bags split time with Hanley at DH and then trade him at the Break .

betts

Benny

Hanley

Devers

Hosmer

Nunez

Xander replace X with Machado next offseason .

JBJ

Vaz. Think this is a 96 win Team pushing the Yankees all year ...decided final week

Edited February 12, 2018 by Natick to NC

[moonslav59]

Ok so Rosenthall is convinced JD is not coming here ...Time to move on .Hosmer is my choice for 1b the next 7 years .Let Mitchy Two bags split time with Hanley at DH and then trade him at the Break .

betts

Benny

Hanley

Devers

Hosmer

Nunez

Xander replace X with Machado next offseason .

JBJ

Vaz. Think this is a 96 win Team pushing the Yankees all year ...decided final week

 

Why give 7 years to guy who bats .700 every other year and now suck on defense?

 

Plus, we need power and Hoze is one of baseball's worst power-hitting 1Bmen.

 

Just say no to the hoze!

[moonslav59]

Seattle had Spencer Haywood and f***ed that up.

 

It's a minor league city.

 

They also had the Seattle Pilots who moved to Milwaukee and became the Brewers.

[harmony]

Sure, if you want to count snow.

Let's look at the baseball months (average precipitation in inches):

 

March: BOS 4.33, SEA 3.70

April: BOS 3.74, SEA 2.68

May: BOS 3.50, SEA 1.93

June: BOS 3.66, SEA 1.54

July: BOS 3.43, SEA 0.67

August: BOS 3.35, SEA 0.87

September: BOS 3.43, SEA 1.42

October: BOS 3.94, SEA 3.46

 

https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/boston/massachusetts/united-states/usma0046

 

https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/seattle/washington/united-states/uswa0844

Edited February 12, 2018 by harmony

[Natick to NC]

Hosmer or bust !!!

[Bellhorn04]

Hosmer or bust !!!

 

What I've been reading is that Hosmer & Boras are looking for 9 years.

 

Absolutely nuts.

[Jasonbay44]

Hard pass on Hosmer.

[sk7326]

Ok so Rosenthall is convinced JD is not coming here ...Time to move on .Hosmer is my choice for 1b the next 7 years .Let Mitchy Two bags split time with Hanley at DH and then trade him at the Break .

betts

Benny

Hanley

Devers

Hosmer

Nunez

Xander replace X with Machado next offseason .

JBJ

Vaz. Think this is a 96 win Team pushing the Yankees all year ...decided final week

 

If Martinez is not coming - fine. Then the question is what do you do?

 

1. Sign LoMo - who is young and could be a late bloomer. But it could also be major fluke rule. Would you want to go 5 years with him?

2. Sign a CarGo or Joey Bats (or something similar) - who are old and have bloomed already. But it would be a year - and maybe you strike gold (or at least silver). Statcast data would be helpful here - alas.

3. Ride with this group. This would be frustrating - but the team scored the 6th most in the AL without anybody having an outstanding season. There is reason to see things getting better.

 

All 3 are defensible. My preference would be #2.

[Hitch]

I hope we sign somebody on a cheaper deal that has shown consistent power. Then make a run for one of the big boys up for grabs next year.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope we sign somebody on a cheaper deal that has shown consistent power.

 

Such as?

[moonslav59]

Hard pass on Hosmer.

 

Easiest pass on a big ticket FA in a long time.

[moonslav59]

If Martinez is not coming - fine. Then the question is what do you do?

 

1. Sign LoMo - who is young and could be a late bloomer. But it could also be major fluke rule. Would you want to go 5 years with him?

 

He will likely sign for 2 years...maybe 3. He may even gamble on one year in hopes that a second big year will lead to a longer term deal.

 

2. Sign a CarGo or Joey Bats (or something similar) - who are old and have bloomed already. But it would be a year - and maybe you strike gold (or at least silver). Statcast data would be helpful here - alas.

 

Joey bats is toast and a cancer. CarGo is a bad roll of the dice... like your hand hits the table as you roll 'em.

 

3. Ride with this group. This would be frustrating - but the team scored the 6th most in the AL without anybody having an outstanding season. There is reason to see things getting better.

 

At worst, we can sign Duda (to crowd out HRam's PAs) and Nunez (as Pedey insurance and overall bench improvement).

 

We could also sign Cobb or Lynn or Cashner plus a Nunez or Duda.

 

 

I'd go with LoMo and a better pitcher than we would get after signing JD.

[Kimmi]

What would Theo do in this situation?

 

If you look at the Darvish deal, Theo really put in a lot of bells and whistles - incentive clauses, a 2 year opt-out etc.

 

Maybe Dave needs to do something a little creative, if they really want to sign Martinez.

 

If they can sign him without adding too much more in actual cash it might be worth it just so they know what the 2018 team is.

 

This is a time when I'd really like to be able to give a vesting option based on performance. A little creativity similar to Darvish's deal might do the trick. I am guessing that the deal will ultimately contain an opt out after 2 or 3 years.

 

My head is telling me that Dave needs to stand pat, on principle if nothing else.

 

My heart is telling me to give JD the extra $10 mil (if that will get the deal done), and call it a day.

[Kimmi]

There are just a lot of tough things or Martinez:

 

1. The Red Sox are really the only customer who has the need and the money

2. The market has been squeezing guys like Martinez for a couple of years. The industry is not paying a lot of years for unathletic sluggers.

3. The Red Sox have short term options. They could go with LoMo. They could go Building 19 style (yes I'm that old) and look at Bautista/CarGo. They could simply say that "we scored the 6th most runs in the AL without anybody having a particularly good year" and just count on some turnaround from coaching and life happening.

 

I think eventually Martinez joins Boston, but I have no problem with a hard line being taken here.

 

I am fully on board with this post.

[Kimmi]

There is no reason whatsoever to pay Martinez a penny more than $125 over five years. Even that is an overpay. JD needs to look in the mirror and decide if he and his family can "survive" with "just" $125M. Right now, he is living in a fantasy land created by Borass. If I am DD I tell Borass that this is the final offer, and it may not be on the table tomorrow. Go ahead and let him pass up that amount of money if that is what he wants to do.

 

I do not disagree. There is no reason why Dombrowski should have to raise his offer. JD needs to come to grips with the reality of his market.

 

That said, I do want JD on our team. And I'd like to have some kind of resolution to the whole matter.

[moonslav59]

This is a time when I'd really like to be able to give a vesting option based on performance. A little creativity similar to Darvish's deal might do the trick. I am guessing that the deal will ultimately contain an opt out after 2 or 3 years.

 

My head is telling me that Dave needs to stand pat, on principle if nothing else.

 

My heart is telling me to give JD the extra $10 mil (if that will get the deal done), and call it a day.

 

I'd be fine adding an opt-out clause or tough incentive bonuses, but I wouldn't budge above $125M/5. That's already a gross overpay and a year or two too long.

[Natick to NC]

Hosmer would rake here don't get the hate but oh well I'm that guy . Edited February 13, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Kimmi]

I'd be fine adding an opt-out clause or tough incentive bonuses, but I wouldn't budge above $125M/5. That's already a gross overpay and a year or two too long.

 

I can't argue with that.

[harmony]

If Martinez is not coming - fine. Then the question is what do you do?

 

1. Sign LoMo - who is young and could be a late bloomer. But it could also be major fluke rule. Would you want to go 5 years with him?

2. Sign a CarGo or Joey Bats (or something similar) - who are old and have bloomed already. But it would be a year - and maybe you strike gold (or at least silver). Statcast data would be helpful here - alas.

3. Ride with this group. This would be frustrating - but the team scored the 6th most in the AL without anybody having an outstanding season. There is reason to see things getting better.

 

All 3 are defensible. My preference would be #2.

Logan Morrison is only four days younger than J.D. Martinez.

[harmony]

Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post

 

Oregon State is a college baseball powerhouse with two national titles despite its outdoor stadium in a climate that is not conducive to baseball in the spring.

 

Nevertheless, on Sunday in Oregon I enjoyed four innings of NCAA Division III baseball as the Pacific University Boxers hosted the Lewis & Clark College Pioneers in the Northwest Conference Preseason Tournament.

 

Attachment 583

 

I call ******** here - you live in a rain forest lol

So what part is BS?

 

 

The posted photo was taken on my phone in the bottom of the first inning (as noted by the scoreboard) when the host Pacific Boxers advanced the runner visible at third base:

 

http://www.goboxers.com/boxscore.aspx?id=4032&path=baseball

Edited February 13, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Hosmer would take here don't get the hate but oh well I'm that guy .

 

Can you tell me why you think a guy who has been off as much as on will suddenly "take" once he gets here?

 

 

His defense has declined sharply.

 

Yes, he is younger than most free agents, but just about all of his contract years will be on the downside of his peak prime year.

 

He should get worse, and worse than one year okay and one year bad is not even close to being worthy of a 7 year deal at big money.

 

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by moonslav59

[cp176]

So what part is BS?

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]584[/ATTACH]

 

The posted photo was taken on my phone in the bottom of the first inning (as noted by the scoreboard) when the host Pacific Boxers advanced the runner visible at third base:

 

http://www.goboxers.com/boxscore.aspx?id=4032&path=baseball

 

How about them Boxers!!!