2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[moonslav59]

It appears to be a self-propagating stalemate

 

The big ticket guys are not signing until they get better offers, but those offers won't get better until the other options are reduced by more second tier players signing.

 

But the second tier guys are not signing as they are waiting out better offers from the teams that lose out on the bigger names.

 

At some point, one or two big ticket names will sign to be ready for camp, and there may be some fallout. But I really doubt everyone signs in time...

 

...and the second tier FAs are waiting for the big ticket guys to sign, so those that lose out enter the bidding on them.

 

[moonslav59]

Cobb in 18! U need a Quality RH Starter in this Rotation vs the yanks and Murderers row

 

2019 or Trade target this season, Blackmon, a legit Defensive CF with Power. If I was DD I would be dangling Bradley and or? If Blackmon becomes available....

 

Kershaw Harper and the list of dirt dog type players is long and distinguished

 

I've always liked Cobb despite the injury issues.

 

He also has good numbers in Yankee Stadium (.613 OPS against) and Fenway (.659).

 

OPS Against with AL East

 

.608 NYY

 

.611 TOR

 

.625 BAL

 

.628 BOS

 

While injury issues are a big concern, they will also make a very good pitcher more affordable.

 

 

[notin]

Cobb, Lynn and Darvish are all big health risks very likely to sit out a full season on their next deal. Pass on all four. Just sign Tillman for some depth. ..

[Natick to NC]

Arietta body type bodes well but his delivery is admittedly ....scary as hell ....I would get Arietta myself .Big game pitcher World Series champ . Edited February 10, 2018 by Natick to NC

[Bellhorn04]

Cobb in 18! U need a Quality RH Starter in this Rotation vs the yanks and Murderers row

2019? Trade target this season, Blackmon. A legit Defensive CF with Power. If I was DD I would be dangling Bradley and or? If Blackmon becomes available. Grant it the Colorado effect but the home run numbers home away have been almost equal over last 3 yrs.

Kershaw Harper and the list of dirt dog type players is long and distinguished in 19

 

 

Epstein said it best, I quote: "The pressure to win in Boston is immense" End quote. Yanks got the best Player on either Market in Stanton. Counter move is not JD "DH" Martinez. Its buying up the second tier dirt dog players who can win you games by trade or FAgency and upgrading your Rotation and Pen. Maybe u go after a legit Star who becomes available at the deadline to put you over the top?

 

Right now DD has done neither and throwing big smoke at a DH is just what Epstein said, a panic type move because of the pressure.

 

No LH Reliever and 2 RH Relievers returning from injury plus u still have Kelly Hembree and Barnes who should have been traded or released..

 

What's so bad about DH's? That Ortiz guy was OK.

[Natick to NC]

I'm trying to figure out Lomos projection for this year ? Any idea ?

[harmony]

I'm trying to figure out Lomos projection for this year ? Any idea ?

Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9205&position=1B/OF

 

ZiPS:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-tampa-bay-rays/

 

Marcel:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrilo01.shtml

[Natick to NC]

Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9205&position=1B/OF

 

ZiPS:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-tampa-bay-rays/

 

Marcel:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrilo01.shtml

 

Thankyou Harmony !! ...so hmmm Lomo seems like a kick the can down the road sign ....No thanks .Hosmer looks like his projections are pretty solid ....JD come on down .

Edited February 10, 2018 by Natick to NC

[mvp 78]

Darvish 6/126 to Cubs

[jacksonianmarch]

$21 mil per year for 6 years. A full year less and $10 mil per year less than Price got. Wow, the FA market has fallen a bit

[harmony]

$21 mil per year for 6 years. A full year less and $10 mil per year less than Price got. Wow, the FA market has fallen a bit

When David Price signed with the Red Sox the left-hander was a year younger than Yu Darvish's current age and had posted 32.0 fWAR in 218 career appearances, including 213 starts. Darvish has posted only 19.0 in 131 appearances, all starts.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13074&position=P

 

Both contracts will probably be viewed as overpays in the end.

[Bellhorn04]

When David Price signed with the Red Sox the left-hander was a year younger than Yu Darvish's current age and had posted 32.0 fWAR in 218 career appearances, including 213 starts. Darvish has posted only 19.0 in 131 appearances, all starts.

 

Which means that Price averaged about .15 fWAR per start, and Darvish about .145 per start. Not very different in terms of performance.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we've finally had our first 9-figure signing...

[a700hitter]

Theo knows how to build a pitching staff on the open market.

[notin]

Cobb in 18! U need a Quality RH Starter in this Rotation vs the yanks and Murderers row

2019? Trade target this season, Blackmon. A legit Defensive CF with Power. If I was DD I would be dangling Bradley and or? If Blackmon becomes available. Grant it the Colorado effect but the home run numbers home away have been almost equal over last 3 yrs.

Kershaw Harper and the list of dirt dog type players is long and distinguished in 19

 

 

Epstein said it best, I quote: "The pressure to win in Boston is immense" End quote. Yanks got the best Player on either Market in Stanton. Counter move is not JD "DH" Martinez. Its buying up the second tier dirt dog players who can win you games by trade or FAgency and upgrading your Rotation and Pen. Maybe u go after a legit Star who becomes available at the deadline to put you over the top?

 

Right now DD has done neither and throwing big smoke at a DH is just what Epstein said, a panic type move because of the pressure.

 

No LH Reliever and 2 RH Relievers returning from injury plus u still have Kelly Hembree and Barnes who should have been traded or released..

 

Apparently the new way is to bring back the exact same team and farm system from the year before. You have to like the way Dombrowski has made absolute certain no new talent has managed to sneak in anywhere, He's like a watch dog...

[notin]

Theo knows how to build a pitching staff on the open market.

 

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish. Any GM can do that if they have a budget.

 

Theo's strength was finding guys like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks and getting them for essentially nothing.

 

 

 

Can Dombrowski do that?

Edited February 10, 2018 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish. Any GM can do that if they have a budget.

 

Theo's strength was finding guys like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks and getting them for essentially nothing.

 

Can Dombrowski do that?

 

He's not incapable. He made a good move trading Cespedes for Fulmer.

[dgalehouse]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish. Any GM can do that if they have a budget.

 

Theo's strength was finding guys like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks and getting them for essentially nothing.

 

 

 

Can Dombrowski do that?

 

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish......................................................................He just did.

[moonslav59]

He ponied up big for Lester, too.

 

Darvish gets an opt out "before 3 years".

 

$126M/6

 

Where's the "collusion?"

[moonslav59]

Recent Theo big signings:

 

$184M/8 Heywood

 

$155M/6 Lester

 

$126M/6 Darvish

 

 

[notin]

He's not incapable. He made a good move trading Cespedes for Fulmer.

 

This is true.

 

Hopefully he can bring some decent talent to this organization like that...

[notin]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish......................................................................He just did.

 

What's your point? That Epstein realized Darvish was a good pitcher and somehow managed to sneak him on to thr roster while everyone else was napping?

 

He got Darvish because he had a lofty budget. No baseball intuition required here. Unlike when he got the other pitchers I mentioned. Or brought Ortiz to Boston....

[Bellhorn04]

I think Theo tries to use a balanced approach. Drafts, trades, free agents.

[notin]

I think Theo tries to use a balanced approach. Drafts, trades, free agents.

 

Absolutely. But he shines over other GMs at spotting the unrecognized talent in opposing systems and getting it for practically nothing.

 

Or, in some cases, actually getting it for nothing...

[OH FOY]

Good price. 21 a year, in todays market for Starters. Don't lose any Draft Picks. Edited February 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Natick to NC]

Recent Theo big signings:

 

$184M/8 Heywood

 

$155M/6 Lester

 

$126M/6 Darvish

 

 

 

Two of those deals are horrific the others a non brained in Lester

[Natick to NC]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish......................................................................He just did.

 

This is spot on and Heywood !!! That's a disgusting contract for a 1 dimensional player Defense .Sound familiar ? We will rue the day we didn't go get Hosmer .....kidding ...sorta

Edited February 11, 2018 by Natick to NC

[jacksonianmarch]

Theo has always had issues with the back end of the build. He knows how to rebuild. He knows how to bring the rebuild into the now. The sustaining the success part is where he overspends to keep a good thing going. The Heyward signing was puzzling from the start. The Lester signing was necessary to win the title they did. This signing is a great one. I think Darvish stays for 2 yrs and dominates

[Larry Cook]

Theo's strength was never ponying up big money for guys like Darvish. Any GM can do that if they have a budget.

 

Theo's strength was finding guys like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks and getting them for essentially nothing.

 

 

 

Can Dombrowski do that?

 

No! Dave a fireman, not a real GM with a plan for the now and future of a team. He can’t see past the end of his nose. Hence the overpaying for assets, the decimation of the farm system, and the cliff in two years.

 

He does not know how create value only how to buy it with cash and/or prospects,

[notin]

Theo has always had issues with the back end of the build. He knows how to rebuild. He knows how to bring the rebuild into the now. The sustaining the success part is where he overspends to keep a good thing going. The Heyward signing was puzzling from the start. The Lester signing was necessary to win the title they did. This signing is a great one. I think Darvish stays for 2 yrs and dominates

 

Name a GM who doesn't have to overspend after 7 or 8 years of drafting 30th or lower. Hint: Don't say Cashman.

 

I also want to know what you mean by always has issues on the back end of a build. How many times has that really happened?