2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[mvp 78]

4.26 ERA in the NL East? Let’s dump the farm for him!

[moonslav59]

4.26 ERA in the NL East? Let’s dump the farm for him!

 

He's 26. He's never had an ERA above 3.88 until this year.

 

His career ERA is 3.50. He's worth a couple very good prospects.

 

Cole has a 15.9 WAR since 2013--right between Cueto and Keuchel.

 

His ERA- of 90 is just below Iwakuma and Keuchel[ and better than Archer.

 

His 1.22 WHIP is between Archer and Qunitana.

 

His 3.62 K/BB is 14th best since 2013 and beats out Lester, Felix, Cueto, Quintana, Lackey, Archer and Verlander.

 

His 3.47 xFIP is 14th best in MLB since 2013.

 

He'd be worth giving up a couple top farm pieces.

[Meh]

So, how about Beeks & Chavis for Cole?

 

A deal of Groome, Chavis, and Houck is probably similar to Fraizer and Adams. You got to remember Fraizer and Adams could be plugged into the opening day line up. Frazier is a top 30 prospect in baseball if he had like 20 less ABs. Adams is probbaly a top 50, maybe top 60 prospect too.

 

Red Sox might need a starter though, whos the 5th guy? Wright will likely be out at least 50 games for his domestic violence. ERod is recovering from injury.

Edited December 23, 2017 by Meh

[mvp 78]

He's 26. He's never had an ERA above 3.88 until this year.

 

His career ERA is 3.50. He's worth a couple very good prospects.

 

Cole has a 15.9 WAR since 2013--right between Cueto and Keuchel.

 

His ERA- of 90 is just below Iwakuma and Keuchel[ and better than Archer.

 

His 1.22 WHIP is between Archer and Qunitana.

 

His 3.62 K/BB is 14th best since 2013 and beats out Lester, Felix, Cueto, Quintana, Lackey, Archer and Verlander.

 

His 3.47 xFIP is 14th best in MLB since 2013.

 

He'd be worth giving up a couple top farm pieces.

 

WHIP in a pitcher’s park in the NL East. He’s probably a fine 4th starter.

[moonslav59]

WHIP in a pitcher’s park in the NL East. He’s probably a fine 4th starter.

 

ERA- accounts for home park. A 90 ERA- is a 2/3 starter at worst.

[moonslav59]

WHIP in a pitcher’s park in the NL East. He’s probably a fine 4th starter.

 

Big parks actually produce more hits but less HRs. WHIP does not distinguish between a single and an HR.

 

Walks are walks anywhere.

[Larry Cook]

A deal of Groome, Chavis, and Houck is probably similar to Fraizer and Adams. You got to remember Fraizer and Adams could be plugged into the opening day line up. Frazier is a top 30 prospect in baseball if he had like 20 less ABs. Adams is probbaly a top 50, maybe top 60 prospect too.

 

Red Sox might need a starter though, whos the 5th guy? Wright will likely be out at least 50 games for his domestic violence. ERod is recovering from injury.

 

If we do not sign anybody, then Velazquez, beeks and Johnson duke it out for the fifth spot.

 

I am putting my money on Velazquez, but deep down we need to sign Vargas!

[notin]

The Red Sox absolutely need a pitcher, but free agency is such a bad way to get one unless you have identified a clear undervalued candidate. Hitters are more likely to be worth it for long term deals, and even that is no guarantee.

 

The best option might be to sign Martinez and deal Bradley for a pitcher...

[moonslav59]

If we do not sign anybody, then Velazquez, beeks and Johnson duke it out for the fifth spot.

 

I am putting my money on Velazquez, but deep down we need to sign Vargas!

 

I'm not sure we can count Wright out.

 

I also think Haley or Elias may challenge for the 5 slot, especially if we don't sign anyone else.

[cp176]

Realistically do people think that Wright has any chance of overcoming the image scrutinizing up here that he is about to experience? Not me but hey I would have traded him long ago when he was right in the middle of his best run. Knuckleballers and their swings don't suit my personality very well.

[moonslav59]

Realistically do people think that Wright has any chance of overcoming the image scrutinizing up here that he is about to experience? Not me but hey I would have traded him long ago when he was right in the middle of his best run. Knuckleballers and their swings don't suit my personality very well.

 

In this day and age, you are probably right about Wright's time here.

 

I love the knuckleball and think it messes with hitters- sometimes for extended times afterwards.

 

Wright had been pretty consistent until his injury. Wakefield was actually more consistent than most other pitchers of his time- otherwise he wouldn't have lasted that long.

 

Look at Porcello. When he "loses it", nobody blames the type of pitch he throws. Fastball pitchers often lose control. Breaking ball pitchers often lose control or amount of movement. Sometimes they "lose it" for long stretches. I'm not sure I see any evidence that knuckleballers "lose it" more than anyone else, especially not Wright and Wake, our knucklers.

[cp176]

In this day and age, you are probably right about Wright's time here.

 

I love the knuckleball and think it messes with hitters- sometimes for extended times afterwards.

 

Wright had been pretty consistent until his injury. Wakefield was actually more consistent than most other pitchers of his time- otherwise he wouldn't have lasted that long.

 

Look at Porcello. When he "loses it", nobody blames the type of pitch he throws. Fastball pitchers often lose control. Breaking ball pitchers often lose control or amount of movement. Sometimes they "lose it" for long stretches. I'm not sure I see any evidence that knuckleballers "lose it" more than anyone else, especially not Wright and Wake, our knucklers.

 

Hey, don't get me wrong though, since we already have him I was looking forward to his healthy return. I just think that anybody thinking that he is going to come out of this one ok even if suspended for a lengthy stretch, is dreaming.

[notin]

I'm not sure we can count Wright out.

 

I also think Haley or Elias may challenge for the 5 slot, especially if we don't sign anyone else.

 

Elias has some potential with that deadly curve ball of his. Haley is about as replacement level as it gets...

[moonslav59]

Hey, don't get me wrong though, since we already have him I was looking forward to his healthy return. I just think that anybody thinking that he is going to come out of this one ok even if suspended for a lengthy stretch, is dreaming.

 

I agree. Now, he has physical and emotional damage to come back from.

 

I will add, not knowing the details of what happened, I'm not sure I want him back once I find out, and I've been one of his biggest supporters for years.

 

[notin]

If we do not sign anybody, then Velazquez, beeks and Johnson duke it out for the fifth spot.

 

I am putting my money on Velazquez, but deep down we need to sign Vargas!

 

Actually I'm thinking Matt Garza might be an option. He's very tight with Price and sometimes things like that do become a factor, especially for pitchers like Garza who have never won anything and are watching their careers wind down.

[Spudboy]

I'm not sure we can count Wright out.

 

I also think Haley or Elias may challenge for the 5 slot, especially if we don't sign anyone else.

 

I know I am in the minority here but I have positive feelings about Velazquez. I think he has the most polish as a MLB ready starter for the Sox among the dregs of our MiLB teams.

 

Now if he can be extended to more than 5 1/3 innings we could really have something good.

[Spudboy]

In this day and age, you are probably right about Wright's time here.

 

I love the knuckleball and think it messes with hitters- sometimes for extended times afterwards.

 

Wright had been pretty consistent until his injury. Wakefield was actually more consistent than most other pitchers of his time- otherwise he wouldn't have lasted that long.

 

Look at Porcello. When he "loses it", nobody blames the type of pitch he throws. Fastball pitchers often lose control. Breaking ball pitchers often lose control or amount of movement. Sometimes they "lose it" for long stretches. I'm not sure I see any evidence that knuckleballers "lose it" more than anyone else, especially not Wright and Wake, our knucklers.

 

I tend to agree with all of this post.

[moonslav59]

I know I am in the minority here but I have positive feelings about Velazquez. I think he has the most polish as a MLB ready starter for the Sox among the dregs of our MiLB teams.

 

Now if he can be extended to more than 5 1/3 innings we could really have something good.

 

I agree that Velazquez has the best chance at winning the 5 slot by April, assuming we don't add anyone and Wright is suspended or traded.

[Larry Cook]

I agree that Velazquez has the best chance at winning the 5 slot by April, assuming we don't add anyone and Wright is suspended or traded.

 

Playing the hope and pray game is a fools gambit! Why not sign another starter and have more depth, just in case. Because last season we sure could have used it!

[notin]

I agree that Velazquez has the best chance at winning the 5 slot by April, assuming we don't add anyone and Wright is suspended or traded.

 

That might be the worst news of the off-season. ..

[a700hitter]

I am in big time withdrawal needing a big move. The team as constructed will not be able to get the job done. They will not win the Division and probably not have enough for a Wild Card spot. The Yankees have taken a big step forward and they only needed to close a 1 game gap.

 

Our offense is not going to "regress" to the mean enough to appreciably improve their run production. Pedroia will miss 2 months. That will be a hit to the offense right out of the gate, creating a big hole. I am expecting marginal improvement from Betts (+40 OPS) and a healthy Bogaerts (+30 OPS). I expect no improvement from Bradley or Benintendi. I expect a slight downturn from Moreland and only the slightest improvement from Hanley if any. Who knows what to expect from Devers. He could be a break out star or maybe the pitchers have adjusted to him and he will struggle out of the gate. I would not be surprised by a notable step back by Vasquez. Overall, I expect run production to struggle maybe more than last year, because we will not have Nunez stepping in for Pedroia. It is the same squad. Expecting big improvement is just homer-ism supported by nothing.

[Spudboy]

I am in big time withdrawal needing a big move. The team as constructed will not be able to get the job done. They will not win the Division and probably not have enough for a Wild Card spot. The Yankees have taken a big step forward and they only needed to close a 1 game gap.

 

Our offense is not going to "regress" to the mean enough to appreciably improve their run production. Pedroia will miss 2 months. That will be a hit to the offense right out of the gate, creating a big hole. I am expecting marginal improvement from Betts (+40 OPS) and a healthy Bogaerts (+30 OPS). I expect no improvement from Bradley or Benintendi. I expect a slight downturn from Moreland and only the slightest improvement from Hanley if any. Who knows what to expect from Devers. He could be a break out star or maybe the pitchers have adjusted to him and he will struggle out of the gate. I would not be surprised by a notable step back by Vasquez. Overall, I expect run production to struggle maybe more than last year, because we will not have Nunez stepping in for Pedroia. It is the same squad. Expecting big improvement is just homer-ism supported by nothing.

 

All realistic and common sense.

 

I see that you have had your fill of that f***tard phrase "positive regression".

 

Not only is that a f***ing oxymoron, believing in such nonsense to build the squad is about as smart as believing that there "is more than one way to build a rotation". and "five aces".

 

Hopefully some of those guys like Bogey and Betts won't deal with lingering issues. If those guys are healthy, yes, their offensive numbers should be a little better.

 

Counting on an entire squad to perform better than this past year without an upgrade in talent is very dumb.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks look better on paper than last year. The Angels do too. I'm not sure any other contenders have improved.

 

I can't see why we should be favorites for a wild card slot, even with no "positive regression".

 

I will say, I cannot see us having 8 or our 9 returning batters dipping like they did this year. My guess is most stay the same or improve.

 

Even, if we add no new player, we will have Devers all year but no Nunez. No Young or Davis might be addition by subtraction.

[cp176]

All realistic and common sense.

 

I see that you have had your fill of that f***tard phrase "positive regression".

 

Not only is that a f***ing oxymoron, believing in such nonsense to build the squad is about as smart as believing that there "is more than one way to build a rotation". and "five aces".

 

Hopefully some of those guys like Bogey and Betts won't deal with lingering issues. If those guys are healthy, yes, their offensive numbers should be a little better.

 

Counting on an entire squad to perform better than this past year without an upgrade in talent is very dumb.

 

"f***tard" - lol

 

positive regression- Is that like bouncing back?

 

KISS principle for me.

[a700hitter]

All realistic and common sense.

 

I see that you have had your fill of that f***tard phrase "positive regression".

 

Not only is that a f***ing oxymoron, believing in such nonsense to build the squad is about as smart as believing that there "is more than one way to build a rotation". and "five aces".

 

Hopefully some of those guys like Bogey and Betts won't deal with lingering issues. If those guys are healthy, yes, their offensive numbers should be a little better.

 

Counting on an entire squad to perform better than this past year without an upgrade in talent is very dumb.

LOL! The whole notion of regression from season to season is a completely dopey notion. And “positive regression” is positively stupid. These are people playing a highly skilled difficult game. This is not merely rolling dice where the rules of probability and the odds eventually win out.

[oldtimer]

LOL! The whole notion of regression from season to season is a completely dopey notion. And “positive regression” is positively stupid. These are people playing a highly skilled difficult game. This is not merely rolling dice where the rules of probability and the odds eventually win out.

 

One element of change not discussed by any here is the change in management and coaching. Of course they don't stand at the plate, but perhaps in emphasis they will have an impact. whether that is a positive or negative remains to be seen.

[Bellhorn04]

I am in big time withdrawal needing a big move. The team as constructed will not be able to get the job done. They will not win the Division and probably not have enough for a Wild Card spot. The Yankees have taken a big step forward and they only needed to close a 1 game gap.

 

Where I come from, 93 is 2 more than 91.

[notin]

I think "regression" has far and away supplanted "overrated" as the most misunderstood word. And easily the the most misused.

 

The word means "to revert to a less developed state." So is positive regression returning to a less developed state? Is negative regression growth?

[notin]

I am in big time withdrawal needing a big move. The team as constructed will not be able to get the job done. They will not win the Division and probably not have enough for a Wild Card spot. The Yankees have taken a big step forward and they only needed to close a 1 game gap.

 

Our offense is not going to "regress" to the mean enough to appreciably improve their run production. Pedroia will miss 2 months. That will be a hit to the offense right out of the gate, creating a big hole. I am expecting marginal improvement from Betts (+40 OPS) and a healthy Bogaerts (+30 OPS). I expect no improvement from Bradley or Benintendi. I expect a slight downturn from Moreland and only the slightest improvement from Hanley if any. Who knows what to expect from Devers. He could be a break out star or maybe the pitchers have adjusted to him and he will struggle out of the gate. I would not be surprised by a notable step back by Vasquez. Overall, I expect run production to struggle maybe more than last year, because we will not have Nunez stepping in for Pedroia. It is the same squad. Expecting big improvement is just homer-ism supported by nothing.

 

While I totally get what you're saying about big move withdrawal, I'm at the point of hoping for any move.

 

Its Christmas Eve and so far the biggest actual addition to the organization is Esteban Quiroz, a guy none of us baseball junkies even heard of 8 weeks ago. I get why a big bat hasn't been added. But is it so necessary to pretend EVERYTHING hinges on that one puzzle piece?

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone is expecting the whole squad to improve all at once. I doubt anyone expected our whole (batting) squad, minus Vaz, to decline from 2016 to 2017, either.

 

If our team was old, I could honestly say a further decline has a significant chance of happening. One could argue the odds are our returning hitters put up close to the same numbers as 2017 is high enough to win the plurality count vs decline and improve.

 

I'd put my money on an improvement, even if just slight. Only Vaz, HRam and Pedey have no real evidence to argue they get better than 2017, although Vaz & HRam could, and nobody would be shocked. With so many of our key players just entering or coming close to "prime years", I think it is justified to expect improvement from most of the guys below. One or two could even bust out and have fantastic years.

 

Age/OPS 2015>2016>2017

 

Beni: 21/.835 > 22/.776> 23/ ?

 

Bogey: 22/.776> 23/.802> 24/.746> ?

 

Betts: 23/.820> 24> .897> 25/.805> ?

 

J.B.J.: 25/.832> 26/.835> 27/.726> ?

 

The one who improved:

Vaz: 25/.585> 26/.735> ?

 

 

Our best bet for major improvement comes from getting a full season from Devers. I know we have lost the Nunez production (.892 in 173 PAs), but we will also lose a lot of PAs from near total non-producers like...

 

PAs/OPS

276/.709 Young

188/.593 Marrero (should not see much action)

164/.548 B Holt (should not see much action or should do better)

118/.558 Rutledge

108/.622 Pablo

83 /.667 Travis (should not see much action or should do better)

66 /.709 Lin (should not see much action or should do better)

38 /.595 Davis

(301/.644 Leon- Vaz should take 100+ of these PAs)

 

This is over 1,100 PAs compared to Nunez's 183 PAs.

Arguably, these 1,100 PAs will likely be made up by

 

350 more by Devers

250 from Hernandez

200 from Brentz (or his replacement)

200 from Swihart

100 more by Vaz

 

I like the outlook of these "replacement" PAs btter than what we got from the list above.

 

I do expect overall improvement, even when factoring likely declines from Pedey & Vaz. HRam is a wild card to me, and Moreland is about as predictable as the sunrise (.730-.790). I think it will be significant but not great.

 

However, I do not see the massive improvement we need to be a top contender. That is why I am still for taking yet another leap of faith and overpay JD to be our DH and 4th OF'er (bye-bye Brentz- hello Swihart or Marrero who are both out of options). If we end up trading JBJ for a solid SP'er, I won't like it, but we do need pitching, too, and we are somewhat limited in spending by the second tier penalty phase.