2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Jack Flap]

Yeah, any interest in Bruce should be predicated on his coming cheaply. (The Guardians picked him up for next to nothing in August, if I remember correctly.) He doesn't really excite me, but neither do the Morrisons and Dudas of the world.

 

It seems like there will be enough 1B/DH type bats floating around that we'll probably be able to grab one or two of them for a relative bargain - though I wouldn't bet that Dombrowski is going to be shopping in the bargain aisle this winter...

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors offered a column and poll on improving the Red Sox hitting:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-improving-bostons-offense.html

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Rumors offered a column and poll on improving the Red Sox hitting:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-improving-bostons-offense.html

 

Pretty much sums it all up nicely.

 

No talk of JF or Bruce as the DH for us.

 

I guess everyone thinks HRam will not play 1B next year.

[Hugh2]

It's not a matter of Hanley being a team player or not, he has to play well to get paid the following year by his new team. If he slacks off and hits .232 then he'll be paid accordingly in his next contract. Or not be signed at all, because who wants a DH who hits .232??

 

Hanley has an option that vests if he gets his AB's. He can hit .232 and still collect 22 million dollars. Of course, you can always bench him if he's hitting .232 but my guess is that does not sit very well for him.

 

That was my point, the scenario that may playout and how that could influence the clubhouse with the Hanley situation next year.

[moonslav59]

HRam needs 497 PAs and pass a physical to vest.

 

He had 553 PAs this year. It won't really take a benching to deny him the vesting.

 

Sign Duda (very cheap) to DH vs RHPs and play 1B vs LHPs, and HRam will be lucky to get 300 PAs.

 

He could also get 600 PAs and flunk the physical.

[sk7326]

The premium market for 1B/OF is pretty lousy - JD Martinez is good of course, but the years will be hard to handle. Same is true for Justin Upton (assuming he opts out).

 

Carlos Santana is probably the best FA compromise - although I see nothing wrong with a Winter 2002-2003 approach, where you fill a wheelbarrow with types and see if you can get a Kevin Millar out of it. (obviously asking for that strategy to yield a David Ortiz is not something you should expect more than once or twice a millenium)

 

That said, looking at last year's market - I expect there will be somebody (very likely Santana) who might have to settle for a short deal because the market does not want to pay 1B/DH/OF sorts.

[moonslav59]

There's a glut of mediocre 1Bmen that will not cost much and will take one year, if we offer slightly more, but with basically just one position to fill, and still no clean up hitter on the team, going mid-range seems lame to me. We could try to sign 2-3 mid level players- maybe 1-2 for the bench and cross our fingers, but I'm thinking bigger.

 

Signing guys like Millar and Mueller when you already have two bash brothers in the line-up is easier to do then when you have none.

[sk7326]

There's a glut of mediocre 1Bmen that will not cost much and will take one year, if we offer slightly more, but with basically just one position to fill, and still no clean up hitter on the team, going mid-range seems lame to me. We could try to sign 2-3 mid level players- maybe 1-2 for the bench and cross our fingers, but I'm thinking bigger.

 

Signing guys like Millar and Mueller when you already have two bash brothers in the line-up is easier to do then when you have none.

 

The Red Sox had 1 bash brother when that happened ... that is part of the Papi legend.

 

A lot of the power solution has to come from within to a degree.

[Bellhorn04]

The premium market for 1B/OF is pretty lousy - JD Martinez is good of course, but the years will be hard to handle. Same is true for Justin Upton (assuming he opts out).

 

Carlos Santana is probably the best FA compromise - although I see nothing wrong with a Winter 2002-2003 approach, where you fill a wheelbarrow with types and see if you can get a Kevin Millar out of it. (obviously asking for that strategy to yield a David Ortiz is not something you should expect more than once or twice a millenium)

 

That said, looking at last year's market - I expect there will be somebody (very likely Santana) who might have to settle for a short deal because the market does not want to pay 1B/DH/OF sorts.

 

Good post...and I really like the wheelbarrow metaphor.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox had 1 bash brother when that happened ... that is part of the Papi legend.

 

A lot of the power solution has to come from within to a degree.

 

You are right. Papi was not a know bash brother when they acquired Millar and Mueller.

 

I do think we will see an uptick in power from our returning players, but I doubt it can be enough to bring us even to average next year.

 

I feel we need a feared power guy in the 4 slot. That would also take some pressure off those who were forced to hit from that slot this year.

[moonslav59]

Good post...and I really like the wheelbarrow metaphor.

 

We had many open positions in 2004 and 2013. Both of those years, we signed mid-level guys that worked out well.

 

This year we have 1 open position (1B) and two iffy ones (DH and 2B).

 

Could signing Duda or Morrison, Nunez and C Beltran orJ Werth really help us like 2004 (Papi, Mueller & Millar) and 2013 (Vic, Naps, Uehara)?

[Hugh2]

I do think this team as is could show more power.

 

I expect a full season of Devers to provide more production out of 3B than we've seen the last few years.

 

I expect more pop from Bogaerts as well, as a guy who was supposed to have power and hit 21 Home Runs as a 23-year-old you have to believe there is some power in his swing. I'm convinced at this point that power will never be as much a part of his game as some had anticipated as a top prospect moving from the system but I also believe his hand injury had a significant impact on his production this year.

 

I still think we need to add pop though, with a little internal improvement plus an acquisition or two this offense could do a 180 next year. Hosmer was a guy I suggested earlier because he's the top guy at the position that is easiest for us to fill and improve this lineup. He's young, just moving into his prime, and I really think his swing would play well at Fenway.

 

I like Martinez as a solution as well, but he's also at that age where you never can be certain what you get. He could produce until he is 40 or fall off a cliff next year. Especially if a QO is involved, I'd rather bet on the guy in his prime with a swing made for Fenway.

 

Anytime a big investment involving money and draft picks is involved there is always a case against, and that I understand. But we traded away the top positional prospect and one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball for 3 years of Chris Sale. That was a win now move and we only get two years of him left.

 

Count me in the go big or go home boat.

[mvp 78]

JD is 30. Why would he fall off a cliff at 31?

[Bellhorn04]

We had many open positions in 2004 and 2013. Both of those years, we signed mid-level guys that worked out well.

 

This year we have 1 open position (1B) and two iffy ones (DH and 2B).

 

Could signing Duda or Morrison, Nunez and C Beltran orJ Werth really help us like 2004 (Papi, Mueller & Millar) and 2013 (Vic, Naps, Uehara)?

 

Who knows. You have to say we really did catch lightning in a bottle in 2013, considering what happened to those guys after that (aside from Koji).

[sk7326]

JD is 30. Why would he fall off a cliff at 31?

 

I think he's good for 2-3 years - for 5 is trickier. Also we are talking about a non-athlete who is a negative defensively ... now that is precisely the sort of player who the market squeezed last year (basically a younger Edwin Encarnacion).

[sk7326]

You are right. Papi was not a know bash brother when they acquired Millar and Mueller.

 

I do think we will see an uptick in power from our returning players, but I doubt it can be enough to bring us even to average next year.

 

I feel we need a feared power guy in the 4 slot. That would also take some pressure off those who were forced to hit from that slot this year.

 

I think they need some help from outside. But I do think some of the help comes from within - Bogaerts in particular (maybe not 30 HRs, but definitely more than 10) after a full offseason to be able to grip a bat comfortably again. It would obviously be foolish to ask Devers to be that bat - but clearly he is going to be (over a full season) a massive upgrade over the steaming pile that they fielded at 3B last season.

 

I am more against a 5 year nine figure commitment to Martinez than against him on principle - I am absolutely about bringing him for 2-3 years, even if it cost more money to do that.

 

Bringing Nunez back makes sense as a Brock Holt replacement - it's a solid bat. He is a terrible fielder - but you do need some reasonable depth with Pedey's status. Pedroia is still a 4-6 win player if healthy, but clearly the "if healthy" part of it cannot be bet on reasonably.

[Nick]

What was Xander's excuse 2nd half of 2015? What was ailing him then? Feelings?

[Hugh2]

JD is 30. Why would he fall off a cliff at 31?

 

I meant to say Santana. I would love me some Martinez, but I'm not sure I'm up for paying a guy a boat load of cash and moving him off position again.

 

I'd be happy with him being a DH/4thOF/back up 1B and pay the man.

[Hugh2]

What was Xander's excuse 2nd half of 2015? What was ailing him then? Feelings?

 

I mean, he was a 22-year-old who ended the season at .320/.355/.421. Not really sure that is deserving of any type of criticism.

[sk7326]

What was Xander's excuse 2nd half of 2015? What was ailing him then? Feelings?

 

Learning curve to a degree ... hand/wrist/thumb injuries during the season are basically impossible to truly fix during the season

[a700hitter]

I mean, he was a 22-year-old who ended the season at .320/.355/.421. Not really sure that is deserving of any type of criticism.

His numbers were right there with most of the team, but people always seemed to be more disappointed in Xander. Maybe expectations are higher. It always seems that when people are ready to throw in the towel on him, he would come up big like with his game 4 home run. Maybe it is because hisbswing is ugly and unorthodox. He surely was banged up, but he plays through it everyday and at the end of the season, his numbers were not that terrible. Edited October 16, 2017 by a700hitter

[Hugh2]

His numbers were tight there with most of the team, but people always seemed to be more disappointed in Xander. Maybe expectations are higher. It always seems that when people are ready to throw in the towel on him, he would come up big like with his game 4 home run. Maybe it is because hisbswing is ugly and unorthodox. He surely was banged up, but he plays through it everyday and at the end of the season, his numbers were not that terrible.

 

Expectations were built really high for Xander Bogaerts, sometimes anything short of what a guys ceiling is supposed to be is a disappointment for some people.

 

He's still very young, and could take another step forward if power comes but if all he is is the player he is today he is well worth the $510,000K investment it took to sign him.

[sk7326]

Expectations were built really high for Xander Bogaerts, sometimes anything short of what a guys ceiling is supposed to be is a disappointment for some people.

 

He's still very young, and could take another step forward if power comes but if all he is is the player he is today he is well worth the $510,000K investment it took to sign him.

 

A 4-5 win under 26 shortstop does not have to apologize for anything aside from being a Top 3 prospect once. His swing is a little higher maintenance than I'd prefer - but that itself is not a crime.

 

He's like the other kids on the team (the Speier piece about Farrell talked to it) ... care a lot, but can get down on themselves. Will be interesting if a manager chance can help with that at least.

[a700hitter]

Expectations were built really high for Xander Bogaerts, sometimes anything short of what a guys ceiling is supposed to be is a disappointment for some people.

 

He's still very young, and could take another step forward if power comes but if all he is is the player he is today he is well worth the $510,000K investment it took to sign him.

To many statheads, it is not important that a guy plays every day even when he is banged up, because his stats suffer. It is important to me, because I don't give a rat's ass if a guy's stats suffer a litttle bit. I only care whether we are a better team with Xander at SS than with his backup. I would rather have a banged up Xander playing SS than Holt or Nunez at SS.

[devildavid]

To many statheads, it is not important that a guy plays every day even when he is banged up, because his stats suffer. It is important to me, because I don't give a rat's ass if a guy's stats suffer a litttle bit. I only care whether we are a better team with Xander at SS than with his backup. I would rather have a banged up Xander playing SS than Holt or Nunez at SS.

 

If an injured players stats suffer it means the team is suffering as well. If there is a healthy option on the bench who can put up equal or better numbers in that limited role, the bench player should play. Any team is better off with healthy players on the field as long as production does not suffer dramatically. Playing injured players is foolish if it hampers their ability to recover.

[a700hitter]

If an injured players stats suffer it means the team is suffering as well. If there is a healthy option on the bench who can put up equal or better numbers in that limited role, the bench player should play. Any team is better off with healthy players on the field as long as production does not suffer dramatically. Playing injured players is foolish if it hampers their ability to recover.

it is like trying to time the stock market. I think the team is better off with the banged up star than the bench player.

[Hugh2]

I'm ok with the bench guy starting for a week give or take a few days, but any longer than that then you need to either look outside the organization for a better option or you play the banged-up star if he makes your team better. All things considered.

[sk7326]

If an injured players stats suffer it means the team is suffering as well. If there is a healthy option on the bench who can put up equal or better numbers in that limited role, the bench player should play. Any team is better off with healthy players on the field as long as production does not suffer dramatically. Playing injured players is foolish if it hampers their ability to recover.

 

I commend Bogaerts for trying. And seriously - these sort of injuries have torpedoed Pedroia and Bryce Harper seasons. The alternative was Deven Merrero or Nunez - each who are half of an all-star shortstop. Given the team's offensive issues - the POSSIBILITY of Bogaerts (however slight) was better than Merrero's reality, even if he stepped in to a couple of homeruns.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's defense has not improved. The numbers show he has slightly declined since his second year's glimmer of hope on defense.

 

I'm not sure this evidence of "trying", but he's clearly the best we have at SS, and we have too many other higher priorities than fixing our SS defense.

[sk7326]

Bogey's defense has not improved. The numbers show he has slightly declined since his second year's glimmer of hope on defense.

 

I'm not sure this evidence of "trying", but he's clearly the best we have at SS, and we have too many other higher priorities than fixing our SS defense.

 

trying being playing through the hand thing - wish he were a bit better defensively ... though on whole the team was excellent on that side