Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[OH FOY]

If Lin provides the most is his Defense. Lot of Posters are thinking Lin is a very good hitter, he has been so-so throughout his Minor League career. Tipping on the suck side. Go to Play-offs with the better Pitching, I just don't see his bat as a huge contributor.

Seen him play, not impressed at all with his bat, at least in the Minors. Good Defense, that his forte.

[Emp9]

Nunez and Davis for me, I want Vets, plus Right Handed Power for Fenway. Didn't Davis take Pomeranz deep last year in the Play-offs?

 

Vets! That's a good point too. We looked a little deer in the headlights last year in the playoffs. We need veteran deer, like the ones that have taken a hit before??? lol Seriously though, everyone talked about the Tribe like they were the young team playing the Sox. I remember yelling at the tv announcers "We're young too you ignorant f***s!!" hahaha

[illinoisredsox]

If Lin provides the most is his Defense. Lot of Posters are thinking Lin is a very good hitter, he has been so-so throughout his Minor League career. Tipping on the suck side. Go to Play-offs with the better Pitching, I just don't see his bat as a huge contributor.

Seen him play, not impressed at all with his bat, at least in the Minors. Good Defense, that his forte.

 

Ding ding ding.

 

He had a great first 10 games in Boston, but after that he tailed off quickly, and didn't do much offensively once he went down to AAA (.227/.283/.602).

 

The fact that Lin isn't playing now (in lieu of Holt or Marrero) tells you all you need to know about his potential for being on a post season roster.

[illinoisredsox]

One thing that favors Young is he's had decent success as a pinch hitter this year (.400/.550/.950). Not so much when he starts. Davis has done nothing at the plate this season either before or since coming to Boston; his role would be strictly speed. Davis is the better OF.

[Thunder]

Sox are 30-15 since non-waiver trading deadline.

 

It seems like 10 of those losses came in that little funk we were in 2-3 weeks ago

[Thunder]

Little Deven has some pop too!

 

He's got better ISO numbers than Bogey, Vaz, Leon and Pedey!

 

He's tied for second on the team (with Nunez) with a 17.4% HR/FB ratio.

 

He leads the team in going the opposite direction by almost 10 points!

 

42 Marrero

33 Vaz

36 Devers

29 Beni

27 Leon

26 Moreland & Pedey

25 Bogey, JBJ and Nunez

 

 

Interesting take, and I think I agree with it. Looking at things from a defensive perspective as well, I would much greatly prefer Marrero, at least at 3B over Devers. That play he made last night was one indication. He made a really difficult play look easy, while Devers made a really easy play look difficult the night before. As long as his bat keeps doing what it has been, and getting those opposite field hits to drop, I like him starting at 3B in the postseason. Or, another alternative would be to start Devers at 3B, then bring in Marrero for "defensive purposes" in the later innings of a close game. The problem is, I don't see Marrero fitting in anywhere else, so it will be interesting to see who makes the postseason roster, and then we can work from there. If Holt doesn't make it, which I don't think he should, but probably will anyway knowing Farrell, Marrero would be the perfect guy to keep Pedey's knee fresh. But, once again, knowing Farrell, he'll probably use Holt for that spot regardless.

[Thunder]

Of course, I'm forgetting about Nunez, since he's out right now... That changes most of what I just said

[SoxnCycles]

Are you promoting a heavy Post Season bunt-and-run strategy? ..Might work better than waiting for someone to hit a HR strategy

 

CC Sabathia is going to be pissed, if he has to face the Sox again.

[OH FOY]

Sean McAdam's Roster 2.0 with over a week to go. Things could change.

SP Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, E-Rod. Out- Fister

BP Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Kelly, Scott. Likely- Workman, Maddox. OUT-Elias, Hembree, Boyer, Abad, Barnes, Velazquez.

Catchers- Vasquez, Leon. OUT- Swihart.

Infielders- Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Devers, Nunez, Holt. On the bubble- Marrero, Travis. OUT-Lin.

Outfielders- JBJ, Betts, Bennintendi, On the Bubble- Davis, Young.

Edited September 21, 2017 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Sean McAdam's Roster 2.0 with over a week to go. Things could change.

SP Sale, Pomeranz, Porcello, E-Rod. Out- Fister

BP Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Smith, Kelly, Scott. Likely- Workman, Maddox. OUT-Elias, Hembree, Boyer, Abad, Barnes, Velazquez.

Catchers- Vasquez, Leon. OUT- Swihart.

Infielders- Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Devers, Nunez, Holt. On the bubble- Marrero, Travis. OUT-Lin.

Outfielders- JBJ, Betts, Bennintendi, On the Bubble- Davis, Young.

 

Barnes has done better recently and is making a strong case for inclusion.

 

I'd take Lin firstm then Marrero over Holt, but if it's up to JF, it will be Holt.

 

If HRam is healthy, Travis might be out or on the bubble.

 

Young has done very well as a PH'er, but maybe we want a PR'er more (Davis)?

[Slasher9]

UPDATE.

10 GAMES TO GO.

88-64

 

1st place in the division.

FanGraphs odds to win the division: 92.0% (+0.7%)

 

3 Games ahead of MFY.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Slasher9

[Slasher9]

Davis stood at first base the other night and then got doubled up. he did himself no favors with that sequence. but he's got to be the 4th OF, no?

holt, nunez, rajai. no chance travis is eating a roster spot.

[Maxbialystock]

Best Defense or best overall pitching?

 

Mostly pitching, but both in the sense that, while the Guardians pitching has given up 505 earned runs to our second best 560, they also only given up 33 earned runs to our 56. So, whatever range, etc the Guardians defense has or doesn't have, they at least don't give up a lot of unearned runs.

 

moonslav has in the past written a lot about the importance of the defense for the pitching--they can't literally save runs. Thus Tuesday night JBJ saved 1 run with the grab over the wall,fence and Beni saved another with the great throw to nail a speedy Machado from scoring from 2b on a 2 out single. I'm not talking about that kind of defense, only the kind that doesn't commit errors or passed balls, etc.--or at least not the kind that lead to unearned runs.

 

I would say our outfield defense is as good as any, but our infield overall is probably subpar. Catching is par or better I think.

[Maxbialystock]

Current OWAR's (and games played):

 

Betts 3.1 (147)

Bogaerts 2.8 (139)

JBJ 2.4 (124)

Beni 2.0 (142)

Pedey 1.8 (100)

Vazquez 1.5 (91)

Devers 1.3 (48)

Nunez 1.2 (37)

Moreland .8 (140)

Travis 0.0 (28)

Ramirez -.1 (125)

Leon -.2 (81)

Holt -.6 (55) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Farrell, please note)

 

Worth noting that Betts overall WAR jumps to 6.1, JBJ's to 3.3, Beni's to 2.6, Moreland's to 1.5. But Vazque's overall WAR drops to 1.1 and Bogie's to 1.6 and Devers's to .8.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

Hanley says he is now using the resistance band for workout rather than using weights. Done right, resistance bands can enhance quick twitch muscles and are less likely to result in muscle injuries. Getting him healthy going into the post season would certainly be a plus.

 

I expect we go into the post season carrying 11 pitchers, due to breaks between games. If that assumption is correct we can have 14 field players. The regular field players, 2 catchers and Hanley and Nunez make 11 so we can have 3 beyond them. You pick them from Davis, Young, Holt, Marrero, Lin, Travis and Swihart. My guess is Holt as JF loves him. Holt could play outfield if needed. I would eliminate Young and Lin from the list so 2 of Marrero, Davis, Travis and Swihart. (I am guessing that Swihart could play outfield in a pinch). Really, I believe Swihart is very unlikely, so its 2 of the other three.

 

Very nicely done. Great on Hanley--I had no idea. Too hard to pick best 3 of 7 now.

[moonslav59]

Current OWAR's (and games played):

 

Betts 3.1 (147)

Bogaerts 2.8 (139)

JBJ 2.4 (124)

Beni 2.0 (142)

Pedey 1.8 (100)

Vazquez 1.5 (91)

Devers 1.3 (48)

Nunez 1.2 (37)

Moreland .8 (140)

Travis 0.0 (28)

Ramirez -.1 (125)

Leon -.2 (81)

 

Worth noting that Betts overall WAR jumps to 6.1, JBJ's to 3.3, Beni's to 2.6, Moreland's to 1.5. But Vazque's overall WAR drops to 1.1 and Bogie's to 1.6 and Devers's to .8.

 

Also, if you triple Devers's OWAR to match Betts' games played, he'd be the leader at 3.9. Nunez would be second at over 3.6.

 

Secondly, we have HRam (-0.1) and Moreland at 0.8 far away ahead of the anyone else batting 4th or 5th:

 

PAs 4 + 5 slot hitters

 

457 HRam

392 Moreland

 

134 Beni

81 Young

67 Betts

66 Devers

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Davis stood at first base the other night and then got doubled up. he did himself no favors with that sequence. but he's got to be the 4th OF, no?

holt, nunez, rajai. no chance travis is eating a roster spot.

 

You're probably right. Holt's OWAR in 55 games is a horrible -0.6, but he can back up the infield, including 1b, and the outfield. Davis is the pinchrunner and occasional OF. Nunez is an infielder or a DH and one of our better bats.

[Maxbialystock]

Also, if you triple Devers's OWAR to match Betts' games played, he'd be the leader at 3.9. Nunez would be second at over 3.6.

 

Secondly, we have HRam (-0.1) and Moreland at 0.8 far away ahead of the anyone else batting 4th or 5th:

 

PAs 4 + 5 slot hitters

 

457 HRam

392 Moreland

 

134 Beni

81 Young

67 Betts

66 Devers

 

 

 

Good points. I personally want my first four batters to include four of the following: Bogie, Beni, Betts, Pedey, and Nunez. If OldTimer is right and HanRam is fixed (see last night),maybe he can bat 4th.

 

Remember, I also like the idea of a distributed lineup--good bats spread throughout--because of your other point that this season the OPS's have coalesced around .750 and even though Betts and Beni are at .798 and .791. Thus I also like Devers and JBJ in the bottom 3d.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Good points. I personally want my first four batters to include four of the following: Bogie, Beni, Betts, Pedey, and Nunez. If OldTimer is right and HanRam is fixed (see last night),maybe he can bat 4th.

 

Remember, I also like the idea of a distributed lineup--good bats spread throughout--because of your other point that this season the OPS's have coalesced around .750 and even though Betts and Beni are at .798 and .791. Thus I also like Devers and JBJ in the bottom 3d.

 

I don't want Devers below 6, so no bottom third.

 

I agree with the first 4, but I'm okay with our HR leader (HRam) up 4th or 5th.

 

Next year, I see Pedey dropping to 5 or 6- maybe 7.

 

1) Bogey

2) Betts

3) Beni

4) New guy

5) Devers, HRam or Pedey

[oldtimer]

I don't want Devers below 6, so no bottom third.

 

I agree with the first 4, but I'm okay with our HR leader (HRam) up 4th or 5th.

 

Next year, I see Pedey dropping to 5 or 6- maybe 7.

 

1) Bogey

2) Betts

3) Beni

4) New guy

5) Devers, HRam or Pedey

 

One thing to note is that Devers home runs came front loaded in his first 20 or so games and no HR since. Don't know what that is, but cleaarly something has changed in the way he is seeing the pitch. He still is hitting, but not with the power.

[moonslav59]

One thing to note is that Devers home runs came front loaded in his first 20 or so games and no HR since. Don't know what that is, but cleaarly something has changed in the way he is seeing the pitch. He still is hitting, but not with the power.

 

Something to watch, if we're talking 5 or 6 slot, but the 20 year old has 28 HRs this year!

[Kimmi]

Magic Numbers:

 

Division - 8

Wild Card - 0 (Red Sox have clinched a postseason spot)

 

Woohoo!

 

Playoff Party Bus is revving up! All aboard!

[Kimmi]

The Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10, the Yankees 8-2, the Sox 7-3, and the Astros 7-3. Those are the likely ALDS teams and all seem to be playing well right now.

 

The Guardians have by far the best defense (runs against), then us, then the Yankees, then, comfortably last, the Astros.

 

Astros lead in offense (runs for),but close behind are the Yankees, the the Guardians, then us.

 

The Guardians have the best run differential, by a fairly good margin (48 runs). They are the team to beat, not that it guarantees them anything once the playoffs start.

[Kimmi]

One thing to note is that Devers home runs came front loaded in his first 20 or so games and no HR since. Don't know what that is, but cleaarly something has changed in the way he is seeing the pitch. He still is hitting, but not with the power.

 

Actually, after the first 20 games, his hitting all around dropped way off. His OBP for the next 20 games or so was below .300. He has picked it up a little in the past few games.

[Slasher9]

His eyes got used to the lighting...

[SoxHop]

His eyes got used to the lighting...

 

That is funny s*** right there......I just wish AAA went with the 60 watt bulbs like the MLB does instead if the 40 watters......... it's a whole new world batting with those 60 watt bulbs and can raise your average quite a bit for about a month....

[OH FOY]

Seem by end of year the Cards are always in play for the Play-offs. Even though they are not having a great year. they are only 1.5 games behind for last NL Wildcard.

[mvp 78]

Seem by end of year the Cards are always in play for the Play-offs. Even though they are not having a great year. they are only 1.5 games behind for last NL Wildcard.

 

It also shows you how dumb adding a 85 win team to the "playoffs" is.

[Maxbialystock]

It also shows you how dumb adding a 85 win team to the "playoffs" is.

 

Why? An 85 game winner has a winning percentage of 52% and 96 game winner 59%. In a five game series between those teams the outcome is statistically pretty much of a toss-up.

Edited September 22, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Why? An 85 game winner has a winning percentage of 52% and 96 game winner 59%. In a five game series between those teams the outcome is statistically pretty much of a toss-up.

 

I agree with mvp on this one. The extra wild card opens it up for more teams with mediocre regular seasons. 96 wins is much harder to achieve than 85. You're right that in a 5 game series the 85 can take down the 96, but that doesn't mean they should get the chance.