Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[moonslav59]

What was the run differential from last years Sox to this years? Looks like about 100 runs from last years team to this years at seasons end. Tells you the importance of Pitching, and Defense.

Papi and Hanley, Betts, were great last year, but getting Sale was huge.

Thinking about it only 100 runs not that bad, with No Papi, Hanley stinking, and Betts down a bit.

Sept 24 last year Hanley had 110 RBI's.

 

We're on pace to score about 90 runs less than 2016 and let up 45 less runs. Unless we lose 5 out of our next 8, we'll have a better record than last year.

 

This one case shows that allowing less runs is more important than a better run differential.

[a700hitter]

We're on pace to score about 90 runs less than 2016 and let up 45 less runs. Unless we lose 5 out of our next 8, we'll have a better record than last year.

 

This one case shows that allowing less runs is more important than a better run differential.

Are you trying to cast a hex on us? LOL!

[moonslav59]

Are you trying to cast a hex on us? LOL!

 

I thought my statement was being optimistic.

[Nick]

Here's an interesting stat for all your geekers.

 

This year we are 38-1 when we score at least 7 runs. Last year we were 45-8 when scoring 7 runs or more. Both years we're net 37 wins when scoring 7 or more runs.

 

Offense is important but not as much as run prevention. To put it another way, Sox only had to play 39 games to net 38 wins when scoring 7 runs but it took the Sox 53 games to net 37 wins last year when scoring 7 runs or more.

 

Obviously we can do both. That is increase offensive production (Stanton, Votto...this is for Kimmi) at the same time loading up on pitching staff.

 

note; on the flip side is that we're probably not scoring enough runs to win low offensive output days considering we're headed for similar win totals.

Edited September 24, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Last year vs this year, we were...

Runs scored

....2016 vs 2017

1-2: 5-27 v 4-24

3-4: 10-21 v 11-27

5: 20-4 v 14-5

6: 13-3 v 16-2

 

Runs allowed

....2016 v 2017

1-2: 40-8 v 34-5

3-4: 29-22 v 28-21

5: 8-9 v 8-9

6: 2-4 v 4-5

7+ 9-26 v 5-24

 

[illinoisredsox]

Magic Numbers:

 

Division - 3

Wild Card - 0

[oldtimer]

Magic number for the pennant is now 3 with 7 games left.

[devildavid]

Nunez still out too.

 

No need to rush Nunez back in, especially if we want him for the post season.

 

And the Sox keep on winning, so it will be a good test to evaluate the other bench players. Looks like the magic number is more rapidly counting down. The sooner, the better, to give a chance to rest some of our tired and beat up players.

[moonslav59]

No need to rush Nunez back in, especially if we want him for the post season.

 

And the Sox keep on winning, so it will be a good test to evaluate the other bench players. Looks like the magic number is more rapidly counting down. The sooner, the better, to give a chance to rest some of our tired and beat up players.

 

It would be nice to not have his first game back be in the playoffs, but if that's what it takes, so be it.

[SoxHop]

magic numbers:

 

Division - 3

wild card - 0

 

loving magic numbers!!!!!!!

[Maxbialystock]

Moreland has been swinging at balls at the letters and above and was 0 for 19 going into that AB. He also was hitting mainly to left when he did contact the ball. Getting a ball to hit and getting the bat on it was rare for him and a big help for us. Putting Young in the lineup means we had a guy in who hasn't got a hit in a dogs age. The choice was him or Davis. Neither are hitting. Holt is also nothing special. I know we had Lin and Marrero sitting while Holt played. We had no really good options. It depends on who we intend to go forward into the playoffs with. I would play those utility guys first.

 

Too true. With Fister starting today, one is astonished the Sox even took the field knowing all those terrible truths you have just related. This team is such a mess and barely clinging to a 5 game lead with now 7 games to play.

[oldtimer]

Too true. With Fister starting today, one is astonished the Sox even took the field knowing all those terrible truths you have just related. This team is such a mess and barely clinging to a 5 game lead with now 7 games to play.

 

We are winning despite many guys not doing the job. You can be sarcastic about it all you want, but it can easily catch up with us. We have Devers, Betts and Vaz as our primary hitters with a hope that Nunez can come back tomorrow. We are in the playoffs so now we have to figure a way to win against the really good teams.

[Slasher9]

UPDATE.

7 GAMES TO GO.

91-64

 

1st place in the division.

FanGraphs odds to win the division: 99.6%

 

5 Games ahead of MFY.

[Northern Star]

I thought my statement was being optimistic.

 

Double reverse jinx.

[Maxbialystock]

We are winning despite many guys not doing the job. You can be sarcastic about it all you want, but it can easily catch up with us. We have Devers, Betts and Vaz as our primary hitters with a hope that Nunez can come back tomorrow. We are in the playoffs so now we have to figure a way to win against the really good teams.

 

I do agree the playoffs--vs. the Guardians, Astros, or Yankees--will be a challenge. especially if their pitching is good. I don't agree that many guys are not doing their jobs. We won Saturday, for example, because of Moreland's 3 run dinger. Our bullpen has been amazing. Even our rotation is looking decent with Sale apparently returning to his early season form. Beni and Bogie seem to be coming around. Pedey, admittedly, is worrisome right now because he seems to have dropped into some can't-hit-spit chasm, not at all the guy he was earlier this month and earlier this year for that matter. JBJ ain't looking too good either. But overall you have to like this team right now. Plus none of those three--the Guardians, Astros, and Yankees--dominated us this season.

 

JBJ's errant throw today notwithstanding, I think our outfield defense is excellent, our catching good, and our infield subpar but not a disaster. Plus good pitching--rotation and bullpen. And I think these guys will hit in October: Bogie, Beni, Betts, Nunez, Devers, Vazquez. Moreland might (now and then). JBJ might. Pedey might.

[Kimmi]

This one case shows that allowing less runs is more important than a better run differential.

 

What?

[Kimmi]

Here's an interesting stat for all your geekers.

 

This year we are 38-1 when we score at least 7 runs. Last year we were 45-8 when scoring 7 runs or more. Both years we're net 37 wins when scoring 7 or more runs.

 

Offense is important but not as much as run prevention. To put it another way, Sox only had to play 39 games to net 38 wins when scoring 7 runs but it took the Sox 53 games to net 37 wins last year when scoring 7 runs or more.

 

Obviously we can do both. That is increase offensive production (Stanton, Votto...this is for Kimmi) at the same time loading up on pitching staff.

 

note; on the flip side is that we're probably not scoring enough runs to win low offensive output days considering we're headed for similar win totals.

 

I have no problem with increasing our offensive production. I have a real problem with taking on a huge contract and/or giving up a bunch of prospects or young major league players.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have no problem with increasing our offensive production. I have a real problem with taking on a huge contract and/or giving up a bunch of prospects or young major league players.

 

So what you are saying is that you aren't willing to increase your offensive production

[Kimmi]

So what you are saying is that you aren't willing to increase your offensive production

 

Ha. Does it take a 10 year contract to increase our offensive production? If that's the case, then I'm good with what we have.

[moonslav59]

What?

 

The Sox have the same record as last year, but are on pace to have a 45 run lower run differential.

 

The will score 90 less runs and allow 45 less runs.

 

It seems, "In this case", that allowing less runs makes up for losing 45 runs on the run differential tally.

 

It's not surprising. Usually when a team wins more than their run differential dictates, they score little and allow little and not score a lot and allow a lot.

 

Keeping the score low keeps you in more games and allows for more chances to win with timely hitting.

[moonslav59]

Ha. Does it take a 10 year contract to increase our offensive production? If that's the case, then I'm good with what we have.

 

There certainly are more options out there than one with a ten year contract.

[Nick]

There certainly are more options out there than one with a ten year contract.

 

It would solve our power outage. Why no go for Chris Sale type? Hitters are different than pitchers. There are guys that can hit until they are 40. I just don't think the risk is as great. Lot less than Price.

[oldtimer]

So what you are saying is that you aren't willing to increase your offensive production

 

You are putting up a false premise. We can increase our offensive production without a 10 year contract. I would doubt if any sane Baseball general manager will be offering very long term contracts in future. They just don't tend to work out.

[SoxHop]

We don't need Stanton. How about a Sonny Gray type contract and replace our 5th starter. Maybe throw in a scrub slugger at first for a couple of years.

[Nick]

2018 will be Stanton's 28th year. He will be in his prime. He can be our Ortiz for next 10 years.

[Nick]

We don't need Stanton. How about a Sonny Gray type contract and replace our 5th starter. Maybe throw in a scrub slugger at first for a couple of years.

 

Won't we have five starters next year?

[SoxHop]

Won't we have five starters next year?

 

Yea.... Porcello or Fister is one of them. And not to be a smart ass, but turning a number 5 to a 3 or two slot and only paying for a few years sounds way better to me than a 10 year mega deal which would cost way more than unloading Porcello....

Edited September 25, 2017 by SoxHop

[Nick]

Yea.... Porcello or Fister is one of them. And not to be a smart ass, but turning a number 5 to a 3 or two slot and only paying for a few years sounds way better to me than a 10 year mega deal which would cost way more than unloading Porcello....

 

I don't think you're being a smart ass.

 

I always think its prudent to ask. Why not ask the Marlins what they want? DD can always say NO.

[Larry Cook]

Desperate dave needs to put his energy into signing ohtani!

 

Ps: I would say desperate dave should get one of the whiz kids in the operations department to look into this, but then I remembered he ran them all off last offseason and all have left in there are Fred flintstone, Barney rubble and mr. Maggoo.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have the same record as last year, but are on pace to have a 45 run lower run differential.

 

The will score 90 less runs and allow 45 less runs.

 

It seems, "In this case", that allowing less runs makes up for losing 45 runs on the run differential tally.

 

It's not surprising. Usually when a team wins more than their run differential dictates, they score little and allow little and not score a lot and allow a lot.

 

Keeping the score low keeps you in more games and allows for more chances to win with timely hitting.

 

Are these statements based on actual historical data?