Countdown to the Playoffs - 2017 Edition

[Kimmi]

Not the same. The Guardians are a much better team than the Rockies ever dreamed of being. They are for real, and not just because of the latest winning streak. They are putting up some very impressive numbers.

 

Agreed. The Guardians will be tough to beat because they are a good team, as is evident by their crazy +207 run differential. Their Pythagorean W-L record has them at 93 wins, 6 games better than their actual record.

 

That said, anything can happen in a short series. The Red Sox are the last team to beat the Guardians, after all.

[Kimmi]

Take into consideration Coors Field for every Colorado offensive stats

 

Also take into consideration that the Rockies' pitching in 2007 is nowhere near as good as Cleveland's.

[moonslav59]

I get that oldtimer. I agree that there are some definite boneheaded plays, like forgetting how many outs there are and like Hanley trying to advance to 3rd on a groundball hit in front of him. I am not arguing about those.

 

The ones that I take issue with are the ones that are judgment calls but are being called stupid. If the runner is out, then it's easy to say that trying to advance was stupid. OTOH, if the runner is safe, it would be called smart baserunning. It could be the exact same baserunning play that gets classified two different ways depending on whether the runner is out or safe.

 

To me it just seems like pretty much every time the Sox make an out on the bases, someone is calling it another stupid out. That is usually not the case.

 

Agree 100%.

 

I love aggressive base running.

 

It is NOT stupid or bone-headed.

 

That being said, I've never seen so much boneheadedness on the paths and field than this year.

[Kimmi]

Agree 100%.

 

I love aggressive base running.

 

It is NOT stupid or bone-headed.

 

That being said, I've never seen so much boneheadedness on the paths and field than this year.

 

I agree that we've seen more boneheadedness that usual this year. Maybe it's because we have a much younger team than usual? Plus Hanley. LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Overall the team's defense is up there among the leaders in some categories. That would suggest that in spite of the occasional bonehead play, the team is generally well focused in the field.

[oldtimer]

There is a discussion going on of who we should make the 11 playoff pitchers should we make it in. Most are obvious, with the question marks being Price (in my opinion he won't be ready) and Barnes. We have Smith and Maddocks with a chance. Barnes has looked awful at times.

 

So we have 4 starters and our 5th starter probably with be added as long relief. We have Kimbel, Kelly, Reed, and Workman. So with 2 more slots available, would you take a lefty in Scott, or Smith or Maddocks and would you take Barnes or Price? I think we can wait to make that decision to see who remains impressive.

[moonslav59]

I agree that we've seen more boneheadedness that usual this year. Maybe it's because we have a much younger team than usual? Plus Hanley. LOL

 

I agree there are reasons why not all related to JF. Beni has made a lot of bonehead plays (running & fielding) and he's very young. JF has had very little time to work with him.

I'm not sure why HRam seems to be making more blunders than the last two. Our 3B coach has made some mistakes.

 

My point was that at least I have tried to separate aggressiveness and even a little over aggressiveness from categorizing them as bone-headed. Maybe not everyone here has done that or even tried to do so.

 

To me, very few plays are borderline boneheaded- over aggressive. Even if you are thrown out by 15-20 feet, maybe taking a chance was called for.

 

HRam's not the only guy running to 3B on a ball hit in front of him. He's not the only guy running the bases with his head down right into an occupied base. He's not the only one forgetting how many outs there are when running or fielding. There's so many screw-ups, I can't even remember all the different ways we've found to mess up- mentally.

 

[moonslav59]

Overall the team's defense is up there among the leaders in some categories. That would suggest that in spite of the occasional bonehead play, the team is generally well focused in the field.

 

We've made some great and spectacular plays. We have much better physical skills than most Sox teams I can remember. Even our leaders in bonehead plays have made some very good plays (Beni-HRam). Most players can and do stay focused for just about every second they need to be focused. It's those few breakdowns that lead to mental blunders.

 

I look at our very good to great defenders, and I wonder how highly we'd be ranked with just the average amount of blunders made.

 

(Remember, many blunders are not even labelled errors.)

[mvp 78]

Home field advantage really isn't a real thing either.

 

Sure it is. You even said it's 51.5% to 48.5%. I'll take that 3% difference every day.

[Nick]

Home field advantage really isn't a real thing either.

 

I though Cubs had huge advantage going to Cleveland simply because of DH rule and having Schwarber getting to bat.

[moonslav59]

I though Cubs had huge advantage going to Cleveland simply because of DH rule and having Schwarber getting to bat.

 

The Guardians had an .865 DH in Santana last year (.771 in the WS.)

 

[Nick]

The Guardians had an .865 DH in Santana last year (.771 in the WS.)

 

 

It was GIVEN that Guardians had a good DH. I always feel NL teams are at disadvantage on the road because they don't have a full time DH. Their best hitters are already in the line up. But having a spare, hot bat in Schwarber, Cubs offense became better. And he was not defensive liability as DH. Guardians simply had their normal lineup.

[Emp9]

There is a discussion going on of who we should make the 11 playoff pitchers should we make it in. Most are obvious, with the question marks being Price (in my opinion he won't be ready) and Barnes. We have Smith and Maddocks with a chance. Barnes has looked awful at times.

 

So we have 4 starters and our 5th starter probably with be added as long relief. We have Kimbel, Kelly, Reed, and Workman. So with 2 more slots available, would you take a lefty in Scott, or Smith or Maddocks and would you take Barnes or Price? I think we can wait to make that decision to see who remains impressive.

 

I'd go with Price if he's healthy. He can be our Bauer in some ways.

[illinoisredsox]

I agree there are reasons why not all related to JF. Beni has made a lot of bonehead plays (running & fielding) and he's very young. JF has had very little time to work with him.

I'm not sure why HRam seems to be making more blunders than the last two. Our 3B coach has made some mistakes.

 

My point was that at least I have tried to separate aggressiveness and even a little over aggressiveness from categorizing them as bone-headed. Maybe not everyone here has done that or even tried to do so.

 

To me, very few plays are borderline boneheaded- over aggressive. Even if you are thrown out by 15-20 feet, maybe taking a chance was called for.

 

HRam's not the only guy running to 3B on a ball hit in front of him. He's not the only guy running the bases with his head down right into an occupied base. He's not the only one forgetting how many outs there are when running or fielding. There's so many screw-ups, I can't even remember all the different ways we've found to mess up- mentally.

 

 

HRam is making more blunders because he's not 25 anymore. His body knows it but his brain doesn't.

 

Pedey was making some of those same mistakes early in the year, but he hasn't made them lately. How much of that is injury and how much of it is him realizing he's not as fast as he once was is hard to say, but either way, his brain is listening to his body.

[devildavid]

cle ops 2017: 789

col ops 2007: 791

 

Look at all the numbers.

[oldtimer]

The Sox had better take care of business as the Yankees are creeping up on them. No more anemic lineups. If Pedey and Nunez are able, they are needed in the game. They are the two best hitters at this point. Hanley also is needed and he has to produce.

[mvp 78]

HRam is making more blunders because he's not 25 anymore. His body knows it but his brain doesn't.

 

Pedey was making some of those same mistakes early in the year, but he hasn't made them lately. How much of that is injury and how much of it is him realizing he's not as fast as he once was is hard to say, but either way, his brain is listening to his body.

 

Pedroia is and always will be a horrible base runner.

[Slasher9]

lets say the Sox go 10-9 for the remainder of the season.

the MFY would need to go 13-6 to tie us.

right now we are 87.2% to win the division.

although at one point in the 3rd QTR of the last Super Bowl the Falcons were at 99.9% to win the game.

fudge. let's win tonight. please.

[Nick]

The Sox had better take care of business as the Yankees are creeping up on them. No more anemic lineups. If Pedey and Nunez are able, they are needed in the game. They are the two best hitters at this point. Hanley also is needed and he has to produce.

 

Maybe we'll better off playing the wildcard game and facing Houston in 1st round. We have Chris Freakin' Sale afterall.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we'll better off playing the wildcard game and facing Houston in 1st round. We have Chris Freakin' Sale afterall.

 

Cleveland is first overall right now. If the season ended today wildcard winner would play them.

[Carpin]

Maybe we'll better off playing the wildcard game and facing Houston in 1st round. We have Chris Freakin' Sale afterall.

 

Whoever gets to the wild card game and win it, will have to face the Guardians next. That's the reason winning the division is so important

[Slasher9]

would prefer not to participate in the playin game and instead go straight to the playoffs. plus finishing 2nd to the MFY will really really piss me off.

[Maxbialystock]

The Sox had better take care of business as the Yankees are creeping up on them. No more anemic lineups. If Pedey and Nunez are able, they are needed in the game. They are the two best hitters at this point. Hanley also is needed and he has to produce.

 

Sox are 2-1 in games Nunez has been available but not played, hardly a disaster.

 

Pedey would play more if he and Farrell thought he was up to it. He could DH more, but I'm guessing Farrell generally prefers HanRam, maybe for his higher slugging percentage.

 

I like both Nunez and Pedroia in any lineup but trust Farrell on when to use them.

[Spudboy]

would prefer not to participate in the playin game and instead go straight to the playoffs. plus finishing 2nd to the MFY will really really piss me off.

 

This is what we should all want.

[Nick]

I was trying to be funny and I didn't even realize that Cleveland surged ahead of Houston. Didn't know.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather face the Astros at this point. Sale has struggled mightily against the Guardians.

 

Beat the 'Stros and hope there is a WC upset?

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather face the Astros at this point. Sale has struggled mightily against the Guardians.

 

Beat the 'Stros and hope there is a WC upset?

 

Indeedily.

[S5Dewey]

Am I the only one who's not quaking in their boots at the thought of playing Cleveland? That team is not going to win out and I'd also guess that they're not going to play .700 ball the rest of the way.

 

C'mon folks. We've been around baseball long enough to know that teams go into - and out of - streaks. Right now the Guardians are in a great winning streak but sooner or later the numbers are going to catch up with them and they're going to slide and maybe slide badly.

 

Remember when the Yankees looked unbeatable at the beginning of the season?

Remember when the Rockies looked unbeatable going into the playoffs after wining 14 of their last 15 games and then sweeping their first seven playoff games?

Even the mighty Dodgers have lost 11 in a row now.

 

I'm not taking anything away from the Guardians. They're a very good team with a very good manager, but every team comes back to earth sooner or later. One of the secrets to winning the World Series is to not only be talented, but to be playing well at the right time.

[Kimmi]

I agree there are reasons why not all related to JF. Beni has made a lot of bonehead plays (running & fielding) and he's very young. JF has had very little time to work with him.

I'm not sure why HRam seems to be making more blunders than the last two. Our 3B coach has made some mistakes.

 

My point was that at least I have tried to separate aggressiveness and even a little over aggressiveness from categorizing them as bone-headed. Maybe not everyone here has done that or even tried to do so.

 

To me, very few plays are borderline boneheaded- over aggressive. Even if you are thrown out by 15-20 feet, maybe taking a chance was called for.

 

HRam's not the only guy running to 3B on a ball hit in front of him. He's not the only guy running the bases with his head down right into an occupied base. He's not the only one forgetting how many outs there are when running or fielding. There's so many screw-ups, I can't even remember all the different ways we've found to mess up- mentally.

 

 

I think some of it comes from players trying to do too much. When the team is not scoring runs, players are trying to make something happen. That doesn't excuse the poor decisions, but that could explain why they're happening.

[Kimmi]

Sure it is. You even said it's 51.5% to 48.5%. I'll take that 3% difference every day.

 

Yeah, that's not really a real thing, especially if that advantage is erased, and then some, by a team playing all out for the last weeks of the season in order to gain home field advantage.