Debunking the 3 year window myth -- the Red Sox in 2020

[moonslav59]

Yes, we have to get used to the fact that Hanley will remain here next year, despite his less than stellar production. I don't expect another year older Hanley will show any improvement, so whatever plan we have should make 2018 his last with the Sox. I prefer that any player we get in his place will be able to play a position and would not advise taking on any playing who can only be a DH.

 

Going forward for next year and beyond, we need to realize that Pedey is likely to be a 90 games a year guy just due to age and wear and tear. So we need a capable replacement for him for the other 70 games or so a year. Pedey when right can hit and contribute enough to fill in as DH. Not much power but a good way to use him to give him days off in the field.

 

As far as priority players going forward, I think Betts, Beni, Devers and Vaz should be our key signees. If Nunez is healthy, I would love to sign him for 3 years as well. That would solve the expected partial void at 2nd and allow for rest to other infield players, plus, he too could be an effective DH.

 

On a second tier, I am ambivalent on JBJ, Bogey and Leon. All have good points and weaknesses but could be replaced with players of equal capability. If signing money or length of contract gets too high then say goodbye.

 

Our current utility players aren't getting it done enough to hang onto them. Young, Holt and Davis. We should look for younger and adequate utility guys to replace them. Maybe we could find a diamond in the rough or two. Travis certainly has upside.

 

Clearly we need some pop in the lineup and 1st base seems to be the logical place to find it. There are several guys out there better than Moreland. If we have to pay a FA, then we should do it.

 

I think our biggest need next year is a top clean-up hitter. The best FA I see for that role might be JD Martinez, who would essentially be a DH only. I share your concerns about that, but I don't think any 1B FAs fill the clean-up hitter role adequately.

 

I think our bench will be fine next year, even if we non tender Holt:

 

Leon

(Holt)

Travis

Hernandez

Lin

Marrero

Swihart

 

If sign Nunez, it will be near top notch.

 

 

[oldtimer]

I think our biggest need next year is a top clean-up hitter. The best FA I see for that role might be JD Martinez, who would essentially be a DH only. I share your concerns about that, but I don't think any 1B FAs fill the clean-up hitter role adequately.

 

I think our bench will be fine next year, even if we non tender Holt:

 

Leon

(Holt)

Travis

Hernandez

Lin

Marrero

Swihart

 

If sign Nunez, it will be near top notch.

 

 

 

I've got my eye on Cole Brannen who needs to mature and gain some weight and strength as a Sept call up in 2018. He fits the bill as a very fast and athletic outfielder who could also play center. At 6' 170# aand 19 yo he needs to gain 10 pounds and his power may respond a little. To me, he is a possible diamond in the rough type.

 

I agree that we have elements in our system that can fill the utility spots as well as they were filled this year.

 

I know you have been less than enthusiastic about Hosmer, but he might just be so much better than what we have that he would be a major improvement. i believe in continuous improvement.

[moonslav59]

I've got my eye on Cole Brannen who needs to mature and gain some weight and strength as a Sept call up in 2018. He fits the bill as a very fast and athletic outfielder who could also play center. At 6' 170# aand 19 yo he needs to gain 10 pounds and his power may respond a little. To me, he is a possible diamond in the rough type.

 

I agree that we have elements in our system that can fill the utility spots as well as they were filled this year.

 

I know you have been less than enthusiastic about Hosmer, but he might just be so much better than what we have that he would be a major improvement. i believe in continuous improvement.

 

He does not have much more HR power than Moreland and his glove is over-rated.

 

He will be costly and want several years. I'm not for putting a lot of money and years into a power position like 1B, on a team sorely lacking power, with someone like Hosmer.

 

I'd rather go one year again with the best we can get for that length (Morrison? Duda? Alonso?) and then sign DH to squeeze HRam out of his vesting option..

[oldtimer]

He does not have much more HR power than Moreland and his glove is over-rated.

 

He will be costly and want several years. I'm not for putting a lot of money and years into a power position like 1B, on a team sorely lacking power, with someone like Hosmer.

 

I'd rather go one year again with the best we can get for that length (Morrison? Duda? Alonso?) and then sign DH to squeeze HRam out of his vesting option..

 

I must have seen Duda at the wrong times as he didn't look like that good a hitter against good pitching. Maybe Alonso for a short contract would be better.

[Jack Flap]

I've got my eye on Cole Brannen who needs to mature and gain some weight and strength as a Sept call up in 2018.

 

I agree Brannen is one to watch, but he's just out of high school and spent most of his first professional season in the GCL. More likely he's a September call-up in 2020 or 2021...

[Spudboy]

I must have seen Duda at the wrong times as he didn't look like that good a hitter against good pitching. Maybe Alonso for a short contract would be better.

 

a700 says that Duda sucks so that is all I need to know about the guy.

[moonslav59]

a700 says that Duda sucks so that is all I need to know about the guy.

 

Does he suck more than Moreland, Alonso, Morrison...?

 

Inquiring minds want to know!

[Nick]

I get it that we went with Moreland as a 'bridge' while our penalty rate reset to zero. For $5.5M he's given us what we paid for. 'Absolute' financial constraints come off next year. Why not be bold?

 

You get a chance to pick up Votto or Moreland WITHOUT touching regulars, you do it.

[Bellhorn04]

I get it that we went with Moreland as a 'bridge' while our penalty rate reset to zero. For $5.5M he's given us what we paid for. 'Absolute' financial constraints come off next year. Why not be bold?

 

You get a chance to pick up Votto or Moreland WITHOUT touching regulars, you do it.

 

Votto or who?

[oldtimer]

I agree Brannen is one to watch, but he's just out of high school and spent most of his first professional season in the GCL. More likely he's a September call-up in 2020 or 2021...

 

You could be right, but I am a sucker for a top athletic type. It will take him time to come up through the levels. Hitting will be his biggest hurtle but I think if he can put on 10 to 15 pounds he could well be a top flight outfielder. The hitting is the thing. Whatever, don't trade this kid.

[oldtimer]

Does he suck more than Moreland, Alonso, Morrison...?

 

Inquiring minds want to know!

 

Morrison is another interesting guy. If he can repeat something close to this year he would be better than Moreland.

 

Also, if we can't pick up Nunez, we should look at Cosart. They both aren't gooing to come cheaply. Their values are listed at around $14 million for next year. What they get offered may be something different, but it would be good to have a backup plan for Nunez.

[moonslav59]

Votto or who?

 

Abreu?

 

Stanton at 1B?????

 

Donaldson or Beltre (Devers to 1B)?

[Nick]

Moreland on my mind........Freakin' Stanton

[cp176]

Moreland on my mind........Freakin' Stanton

 

My vote probably goes to Votto. I'm not to hung up about the age of this guy. I enjoyed watching him play this weekend.

[moonslav59]

My vote probably goes to Votto. I'm not to hung up about the age of this guy. I enjoyed watching him play this weekend.

 

I like Votto a lot, too. He seems to be aging well, but I am concerned about a sudden decline and the length of his deal.

 

Cincy is usually very stingy with trade talks.

 

I can't believe they didn't trade Cozart, who is a FA this year. The missed a chance to get something very nice for him.

 

I'd have to see their demands, but that contract is a big motivator.

 

His price has gone from $14M to $20M to $22M and now is going to be set at $25M until 2023 with a $7M buyout for 2024.

 

Now, would be a good time for them to trade him.

 

It would be great, if they paid some of the contract, but it should cost less in players, if we take the whole deal. (His luxury cost is about what we pay HRam-- $22.5M)

 

Would they take:

 

1 from Travis, Chavis or Ockimey

1 from Beeks, Shawaryn or Scherff

1 from Brannen, Chatham or Dalbec

 

or would we have to include Groome, Mata, Houck or Flores?

 

We could throw them Holt, Hembree (out of options), Marrero or Lin, if they are interested.

 

[Bellhorn04]

We could throw them Holt, Hembree (out of options), Marrero or Lin, if they are interested.

 

You are indeed a generous soul moon.

[Northern Star]

Every time I've heard mention of Duda it's in connection to how much he sucks, so that's a no for me too.

[moonslav59]

You are indeed a generous soul moon.

 

You mean Holt really isn't any good?

 

I guess a blind squirrel....

[Kimmi]

I get it that we went with Moreland as a 'bridge' while our penalty rate reset to zero. For $5.5M he's given us what we paid for. 'Absolute' financial constraints come off next year. Why not be bold?

 

You get a chance to pick up Votto or Moreland WITHOUT touching regulars, you do it.

 

I strongly believe that Dombrowski will get us a big bat 1B/DH type and spend a fairly hefty sum doing so. I don't think it will be Votto though, and I'm 98% sure that it won't be Stanton.

[Bellhorn04]

You mean Holt really isn't any good?

 

I guess a blind squirrel....

 

Holt was a decent player until this year-a good value for the money, at least, that was how I always looked at him. He hasn't looked very good since coming off the DL, possibly because of lingering effects of the concussion and vertigo issues.

[moonslav59]

Every time I've heard mention of Duda it's in connection to how much he sucks, so that's a no for me too.

 

I'm not a Duda fan, but I also do not want us to sign mid-powered Hosmer to multiple years to play the one position we have open to fill the power hole we have at clean-up. I don't see any great clean-up hitting 1Bman on the free agent market, so maybe a 1 year "bridge" will be the best choice. Trading for a great hitter will only create another hole or increase the deletion of the farm.

 

I'm not for large and long contracts- like Stanton and Votto, but I'm also seeing our window shortening up, and signing a "bridge" 1Bman, in a sense, wastes a year of the window. Maybe JD Martinez can learn to play 1B. A long shot might be to sign Moustakas or wait for Machado and move Devers to 1B. Or, we could trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Rafael.

 

Past performance in no indicator of what is too come, but in some ways Duda's recent numbers look better and/or more consistent than Morrison, Moreland and Alonso, and his offensive numbers are not far from Hosmer or Sanatana's.

 

Here's a look at some numbers:

 

Offense since 2014 (1500+ PAs):

 

ISO

1) .268 EE

2) .249 C Carter

3) .243 Duda

8) .226 Votto

9) .223 Abreu

14) .206 Belt

16) .201 Santana

18) .196 Morrison

21) .190 Reynolds

22) .188 HRam

25) .183 Moreland

29) .160 Hosmer

30) .150 Alonso

 

OPS

1) Votto .979

7) Abreu .882

8) Belt .833

10) Duda .821

12) Santana .810

13) Hosmer .799

15) HRam .791

21) Reynolds .766

24) Morrison .761

30) Alonso .745

 

2016-2017 (550+ PAs)

OPS Player ISO

1.004 Votto .239

.861 Abreu .209

.850 B belt .211

.848 Santana .222

.824 Reynolds .197

.822 Hosmer .171

.811 Morrison .232

.808 HRam .203

.798 Duda .258 (Best ISO in the group)

.763 Alonso .168

.737 Moreland .188

 

2017 ONLY (450+ PAs)

ISO Player OPS

.323 Gallo .864

.286 Duda .829

.272 Morrison .867

.254 Votto 1.024

.244 Abreu .904

.228 B Bely .823

.226 Alonso .849

.219 Reynolds .838

.204 Santana .830

.186 Moreland .752

.177 Hosmer .885

 

1B Defense since 2014 (19 guys with 3000 innings)

UZR/150

1) Belt

2) Moreland

5) Santana

12) Reynolds

14) Alonso

15) Votto 0.1

16) Duda -0.9

17) Morrison

18) Hosmer

19) Abreu

 

According to just the numbers, Duda might be the best cost effective 1 year contract 1Bman available this winter.

 

(I'm not saying I want him. Despite what many think about me, I'm not all about the numbers.)

 

 

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

I'm not a Duda fan, but I also do not want us to sign mid-powered Hosmer to multiple years to play the one position we have open to fill the power hole we have at clean-up. I don't see any great clean-up hitting 1Bman on the free agent market, so maybe a 1 year "bridge" will be the best choice. Trading for a great hitter will only create another hole or increase the deletion of the farm.

 

I'm not for large and long contracts- like Stanton and Votto, but I'm also seeing our window shortening up, and signing a "bridge" 1Bman, in a sense, wastes a year of the window. Maybe JD Martinez can learn to play 1B. A long shot might be to sign Moustakas or wait for Machado and move Devers to 1B. Or, we could trade for Donaldson or Beltre and move Rafael.

 

Past performance in no indicator of what is too come, but in some ways Duda's recent numbers look better and/or more consistent than Morrison, Moreland and Alonso, and his offensive numbers are not far from Hosmer or Sanatana's.

 

Here's a look at some numbers:

 

Offense since 2014 (1500+ PAs):

 

ISO

1) .268 EE

2) .249 C Carter

3) .243 Duda

8) .226 Votto

9) .223 Abreu

14) .206 Belt

16) .201 Santana

18) .196 Morrison

21) .190 Reynolds

22) .188 HRam

25) .183 Moreland

29) .160 Hosmer

30) .150 Alonso

 

OPS

1) Votto .979

7) Abreu .882

8) Belt .833

10) Duda .821

12) Santana .810

13) Hosmer .799

15) HRam .791

21) Reynolds .766

24) Morrison .761

30) Alonso .745

 

2016-2017 (550+ PAs)

OPS Player ISO

1.004 Votto .239

.861 Abreu .209

.850 B belt .211

.848 Santana .222

.824 Reynolds .197

.822 Hosmer .171

.811 Morrison .232

.808 HRam .203

.798 Duda .258 (Best ISO in the group)

.763 Alonso .168

.737 Moreland .188

 

2017 ONLY (450+ PAs)

ISO Player OPS

.323 Gallo .864

.286 Duda .829

.272 Morrison .867

.254 Votto 1.024

.244 Abreu .904

.228 B Bely .823

.226 Alonso .849

.219 Reynolds .838

.204 Santana .830

.186 Moreland .752

.177 Hosmer .885

 

1B Defense since 2014 (19 guys with 3000 innings)

UZR/150

1) Belt

2) Moreland

5) Santana

12) Reynolds

14) Alonso

15) Votto 0.1

16) Duda -0.9

17) Morrison

18) Hosmer

19) Abreu

 

According to just the numbers, Duda might be the best cost effective 1 year contract 1Bman available this winter.

 

(I'm not saying I want him. Despite what many think about me, I'm not all about the numbers.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Getting one power hitter in place of Moreland would help but not fix the underperforming offense. I think we also should consider trading some of our most erractic tradeable players and go after replacements who could give us a lift. If we can get Nunez or Cosart that would help and a healthy Pedroia would help but we may need more. Tonights game just points out we can't get into a slugfest or we lose.

[moonslav59]

Getting one power hitter in place of Moreland would help but not fix the underperforming offense. I think we also should consider trading some of our most erractic tradeable players and go after replacements who could give us a lift. If we can get Nunez or Cosart that would help and a healthy Pedroia would help but we may need more. Tonights game just points out we can't get into a slugfest or we lose.

 

We probably will need more than one good hitter, especially if it's Duda, Morrison, Hosmer or Santana. maybe, if we could get Duda to platoon with HRam and JD Martinez to DH, that should be enough. I'm also expecting at least 1-2 of our younger players to do better-

maybe even better than 2016.

 

Our pitching all returns, and our pen should be even better and deeper.

 

More likely, we sign Duda to one year, Nunez to 2-3 years and pray we get a big bat the following winter.

[oldtimer]

We probably will need more than one good hitter, especially if it's Duda, Morrison, Hosmer or Santana. maybe, if we could get Duda to platoon with HRam and JD Martinez to DH, that should be enough. I'm also expecting at least 1-2 of our younger players to do better-

maybe even better than 2016.

 

Our pitching all returns, and our pen should be even better and deeper.

 

More likely, we sign Duda to one year, Nunez to 2-3 years and pray we get a big bat the following winter.

 

Almmost certainly we will take steps to get the best hitting coach available. Whatever, we need to try something different. At this point, I haven't identified a candidate, but what we have isn't working. I suppose who we get will depend a lot on whether JF survives this season. JF has to be given some credit for the position we are in given the lack of power on the team. His strength is handling of the pitching staff. One wonders if the pitching staff has a bad week, due to what looks to be fatigue, will he be criticized for that?

[Slasher9]

please dear God, please, please, please let it be Giancarlo. i firmly believe he can play 1b adequately.

please.

Giancarlo FREAKIN Stanton

[harmony]

From Wednesday's chat with FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron:

12:36

Red Sox fan: Over the next 5 years, which young duo do you expect to accumulate more WAR: Benintendi/Devers or Judge/Sanchez?

12:36

Dave Cameron: NYY duo

12:15

Aaron (UK): It looks like the Astros might end up “choosing” the Red Sox as their playoff opponent by playing weakened lineups – or at the very least not starting their premium SPs against them.

 

Presumably MLB can’t, won’t, and shouldn’t do anything?

 

12:16

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s nothing to legislate here. You can’t force a team to play certain players.

12:31

Big Joe Mufferaw: Assuming the yankees finish within 3 games of the Red Sox. If I told you that would’ve been the case before the season, would you assume it was because the yankees doing better than expected or the Red Sox doing worst than expected?

 

12:32

Dave Cameron: I picked the Yankees to win the division, so I wouldn’t have been surprised.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-92717/

[Jack Flap]

Every time I've heard mention of Duda it's in connection to how much he sucks, so that's a no for me too.

 

I was taken aback by how bad he's actually been with the Rays when I looked up the numbers...I remembered him hitting a bunch of home runs, but has a cool .181 BI and .281 OBP to go along with them.

 

JD Martinez would be my vote.