A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Nick]

Brentz has to get a look..

 

At this point, we're wasting his hot streak. I'd bring him up and let him play. Heck, he may catch what Nunez had.

[Larry Cook]

He is not on the 40 man roster.

 

How do we bring him up? Who goes to the 60 day dl or waived.

[Spudboy]

A good player is a good player is a good player. If you spend money on good players, you increase the odds of your team being good. Theo Epstein always said "The best way to build a competitive ballclub is to build a roster with above-average players at all possible positions". It's not where they spend the money (positions) but rather how (guys who can perform on both sides of the ball).

 

It's refreshing to have logic return to the board.

[moonslav59]

He is not on the 40 man roster.

 

How do we bring him up? Who goes to the 60 day dl or waived.

 

Selsky.

 

Maybe Rutledge.

 

Noe Ramirez.

 

Henry Owens.

[Nick]

It's refreshing to have logic return to the board.

 

If we all shared same logic, then the board becomes pointless. We have a difference of opinion as to how much we are willing to pay for our 'good' SS. Our 'good' RF takes precedence over our 'good' SS.

 

He's 8th in OPS among AL shortstops. And I hear that his defense is mediocre. Is he 'good' or does your logic give out trophies to average shortstops?

 

Sox fans tend to logically over value their players.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Nick

[BstHcpr]

Geez, Xander is a pretty good shortstop. The question is what value does Red Sox place on him given that there are 'better' players on the team that they want to sign, Betts as an example.

 

Anyone here NOW thinks Jacoby was a good signing by the Yankees? $21M per year until 2020. Yikes

 

If Ellsbury signed at age 27 like Bogaerts did, I think we'd be fine with Ellsbury's contract.

[moonslav59]

If Ellsbury signed at age 27 like Bogaerts did, I think we'd be fine with Ellsbury's contract.

 

Not me. Not Jacoby. Not ever for that amount. Not at any age.

[BstHcpr]

Not me. Not Jacoby. Not ever for that amount. Not at any age.

 

What would you offer for Moustakas as FA?

[moonslav59]

What would you offer for Moustakas as FA?

 

He turns 29 real soon.

 

He's never hit over 22 HRs until this year's 32.

 

He's been over .800 for 3 years in a row, so I won't hold his .730 career OPS against him, but I'm just not sure he's that "big bat" we need.

 

35 3Bmen with 1000+ PAs since 2015- his best 3 years (cherry-picked):

 

.836 OPS 9th best

 

121 xRC+ 9th best at 3B

 

Out of 27 3Bmen with 1500 innings since 2015, Moustakas...

 

UZR/150: +1.6 (16th place)

 

DRS: -2 (17th place)

 

I would not give what I think Moustakas will get. I think hew ills eek 5+ years and will likely get it. Maybe $120M/5.

 

I don't really want to move Devers to 1B just yet, either.

 

I think I'd rather go for Duda. He might make less.

 

 

To answer your question: I might offer around $25M/1 or maybe $45M/2. If we can't get Duda or Hosmer, and he's all we can get, I might go as high as $100/5.

 

Don't hold me to that. I'd rather wait until this winter to decide what I'd really like us to do.

[moonslav59]

Duda will be 32 by the time next year starts. He'll probably be cheaper than Moustakas and may take less years.

 

Who knows.

 

Here's some data:

 

42 1Bmen with 1000+ PAs since 2014;

 

.835 OPS (8th best for 1Bmen)

 

130 wRC+ (8th best)

 

.240 ISO (5th best)

 

Pretty impressive when compared to other 1Bmen- a position that is not easy to place this highly in.

 

What will he get? Will he take a 1 or 2 year deal?

 

My guess is, he might get close $100M/4.

 

I might offer $28M/1 or $55M/2. If Hosmer and Moustakas are off the boards, I might go up to $90M/4 or more.

 

(If a close to equal and cheaper 1Bman can be gotten through trade, I'd listen.)

 

[BstHcpr]

If Encarncion only got 3/60, I don't think Duda is going to beat that.

[Spudboy]

If we all shared same logic, then the board becomes pointless. We have a difference of opinion as to how much we are willing to pay for our 'good' SS. Our 'good' RF takes precedence over our 'good' SS.

 

He's 8th in OPS among AL shortstops. And I hear that his defense is mediocre. Is he 'good' or does your logic give out trophies to average shortstops?

 

Sox fans tend to logically over value their players.

 

I complimented a friend who has returned.

 

You just wasted energy putting me in my place over something which I could not possibly care less about.

 

I needed a sound verbal thrashing.

 

So thank you very much.

[sk7326]

Pitchers pitch him differently than at Fenway.

 

I was against signing Ellsbury "for even half of what the Yanks signed him for".

 

He was something like our 6th or 7th best OPS guy the year before the signing.

 

He was their best position player in 2013 (a 6 win player) ... and a legitimate downballot MVP that year. But his age, and the infrequency of those sorts of results, plus the likelihood of Bradley being fine made it an easy call.

[sk7326]

Not me. Not Jacoby. Not ever for that amount. Not at any age.

 

If he could be healthy that would change things. He was the league's best non-pitcher in 2011, and wayyy up there in 2013. It would have been an easy call if he were 27 and had some history of being healthy.

[OH FOY]

Hosmer was the backbone of those good couple of years with KC. Take him every time over Moustakas. Devers there now. Don't need him.

Hosmer make infield better.

Edited August 12, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think Duda will come pretty cheap. Problem is, between hanley and Pedroia's knees, the Red Sox don't need another DH type. Instead, the Red Sox would be better off resigning a guy like Moreland who can play the field or Hosmer if they decide that Chavis isn't the long term solution at 1b.

 

Hosmer makes the most sense--he can hit, he can field, he is a great clubhouse guy, and he is young enough. The only thing that would block Hosmer is Chavis but I'm not sure what the Red Sox's plans are for Chavis.

[Station 13]

Hosmer has the Fenway stroke to left field. But I wouldn't overpay for a 2-3WAR player.

[OH FOY]

Whatever the Sox do, DONT get rid of Chavis, he's tailor made for the Monstahhhhh. Good problem to have Chavis and Hosmer on same team.

[OH FOY]

WAR and eyes I'll take eyes. Hosmer is a very good ballplayer. Bet the Yankees go after him hard.

[Jasonbay44]

Duda will be 32 by the time next year starts. He'll probably be cheaper than Moustakas and may take less years.

 

Who knows.

 

Here's some data:

 

42 1Bmen with 1000+ PAs since 2014;

 

.835 OPS (8th best for 1Bmen)

 

130 wRC+ (8th best)

 

.240 ISO (5th best)

 

Pretty impressive when compared to other 1Bmen- a position that is not easy to place this highly in.

 

What will he get? Will he take a 1 or 2 year deal?

 

My guess is, he might get close $100M/4.

 

I might offer $28M/1 or $55M/2. If Hosmer and Moustakas are off the boards, I might go up to $90M/4 or more.

 

(If a close to equal and cheaper 1Bman can be gotten through trade, I'd listen.)

 

Dude isn't worth and will not get anywhere near that money.

[BstHcpr]

Hosmer has never slugged .500 once in his career. Not a solution to Red Sox lack of power. Let someone else pay him $100 million.

[sk7326]

Hosmer was the backbone of those good couple of years with KC. Take him every time over Moustakas. Devers there now. Don't need him.

Hosmer make infield better.

 

Hosmer has always been a bit of a tease - power which could arrive but largely hasn't. But I am all for signing him - should be cheaper and with some upside. Remember the deal Encarnacion had to settle for - industry is getting smarter in a lot of ways.

[moonslav59]

If Encarncion only got 3/60, I don't think Duda is going to beat that.

 

EE had better and more consistent numbers, but he was 2 years older, if I'm not mistaken.

 

$20M a year might be the limit, but he might get more years.

 

Neither is a good fielder.

[moonslav59]

He was their best position player in 2013 (a 6 win player) ... and a legitimate downballot MVP that year. But his age, and the infrequency of those sorts of results, plus the likelihood of Bradley being fine made it an easy call.

 

To me, 2013 was one of the most obvious outlier seasons since Brady Anderson's 51 HR year.

 

The fact that we had JBJ was just a minor consideration for me. I don't want to start a JE bashing post, but his speed was a big part of his offense and defense, and players like him rarely age well. Jacoby gave us a lot of value over his time with us, but he only hit exceptionally well one year. Throw that year out and his numbers with us were not even top 5 on his own team.

 

I was glad we did not re-sign him, and at the time, I said, "I wouldn't have paid him half of what the Yanks gave him." I'm not sue he'll even lived up to that amount. I was even happier to see the Yanks were the the team to waste all that money on him.

 

[moonslav59]

If he could be healthy that would change things. He was the league's best non-pitcher in 2011, and wayyy up there in 2013. It would have been an easy call if he were 27 and had some history of being healthy.

 

Not even close for me.

 

His health history was an in issue before the signing.

[moonslav59]

Dude isn't worth and will not get anywhere near that money.

 

You're right. I over-valued him. That makes it even more advantageous for us to sign Duda over Moustakas, who will want more money and more years.

[moonslav59]

Hosmer has never slugged .500 once in his career. Not a solution to Red Sox lack of power. Let someone else pay him $100 million.

 

I think his big hit in the playoffs has inflated his perceived value.

 

Remember the last guy we signed based on previous WS heroics?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Hosmer has never slugged .500 once in his career. Not a solution to Red Sox lack of power. Let someone else pay him $100 million.

Hosmer is far from perfect. In two of the last five seasons, his OPS+ hovered around 100. In three of the last five seasons, his OPS+ hovered around 120-125. If we get the latter, we will be happy, but I suppose the former could easily occur.

 

The Red Sox would save a lot of money by going with Moreland for one year and then Chavis beginning in 2019 but it is impossible to know their plans with Chavis. What other options are there? I don't see Travis as much of an option--if he can't hit in AAA, he likely won't hit in the major leagues.

[Kimmi]

I agree- HRam will be a FT starter next year. 1B or DH is the only question.

 

Nunez will be expensive and would likely keep us from getting a big bat at 1B.

 

I'm not sold on Lin.

 

I don't think we need power from our utility IF'er. We need a "real" 1Bman.

 

I also think Hanley will be with us full time next year. I would imagine the team will do its best to keep him at DH as opposed to playing 1B.

[Kimmi]

If we all shared same logic, then the board becomes pointless. We have a difference of opinion as to how much we are willing to pay for our 'good' SS. Our 'good' RF takes precedence over our 'good' SS.

 

He's 8th in OPS among AL shortstops. And I hear that his defense is mediocre. Is he 'good' or does your logic give out trophies to average shortstops?

 

Sox fans tend to logically over value their players.

 

It all depends on what you could get in return, and how you would fill the hole.

 

I love Bogaerts, but then again, I tend to get emotionally attached to our players. If I were going to trade him, it would not be because I don't think he's good enough, it would be to try to get something of value for him before he walks. I think that's the way most of the thinking is here.

 

But as I said, it depends on how the SS hole would then be filled for the short term. IMO, it would not make sense to now hurt the team's short term chances in order to rebuild the farm.