A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Spudboy]

that was in and out of the glove, wasn't it?

 

So? You see that as a routine play?

[Spudboy]

Agreed, He was also playing hurt in 2015.

 

The guy was second on the team in HRs and first in HR %, yet some people want to DFA him and pay him $44M to get healthy and possibly rake elsewhere.

 

Hey how come you don't use your favorite stat WAR to sell his value?

 

Don't tell me you are cherrie picking stats!!!!

 

In any case when he is on the Dl next season because of an ingrown hair in his taint I will be here to remind you of your absolute certainty that he is a must have for the Sox.

[cp176]

I'd take him on my team any day.

 

As long as he were healthy, that is.

 

It's not like he made an error or bonehead play. He tried to make a difficult catch and came up short.

 

I always liked him and hated seeing him go.

[Spudboy]

I always liked him and hated seeing him go.

 

Me too but.

 

I liked Kalish too. Shame about him, really.

[moonslav59]

Hey how come you don't use your favorite stat WAR to sell his value?

 

Don't tell me you are cherrie picking stats!!!!

 

In any case when he is on the Dl next season because of an ingrown hair in his taint I will be here to remind you of your absolute certainty that he is a must have for the Sox.

 

You have no clue.

 

My favorite stat is OPS and UZR/150. Always has been, even with it's flaws.

 

I have used WAR often, but have never come close to proclaiming its sovereignty over other stats or metrics- never.

 

WAR robs DH's of their value. Always has. Look at Papi's WAR. He may not make the HOF, like Edgar Martinez, because of WAR. That being said, I do think HRam was close to replacement player value this year as he played hurt.

 

On HRam, I do not have a lot of confidence in HRam. I wanted him demoted from the 4-5 slot during the season. My point is, our biggest weakness is the clean-up slot and not having enough power. That does not usually mean you DFA your best power guy and find someone else. You usually replace a lower power guy.

 

I've made my position clear. I want to bring HRam back in a more limited role, perhaps to prevent him from vesting his option, if he looks bad next year. If he looks good, we did the right thing. If he looks bad, we don't pay $22M in 2019. Don't try to paint me into some HRam apologist or super fan. I'm not.

 

I hated the signing from the first second. I wish we could trade him for a bag of balls and have his $22M to spend on JD Martinez. I'm not for eating his $22M and then having to not only replace his power but then add 50+ more HRs elsewhere.

 

I guess you want to replace HRam with a 5 HR guy like Travis and then sign a 30 HR guy. That's a net HR loss over HRam and Moreland.

 

[Spudboy]

You have no clue.

 

My favorite stat is OPS and UZR/150. Always has been, even with it's flaws.

 

I have used WAR often, but have never come close to proclaiming its sovereignty over other stats or metrics- never.

 

WAR robs DH's of their value. Always has. Look at Papi's WAR. He may not make the HOF, like Edgar Martinez, because of WAR. That being said, I do think HRam was close to replacement player value this year as he played hurt.

 

On HRam, I do not have a lot of confidence in HRam. I wanted him demoted from the 4-5 slot during the season. My point is, our biggest weakness is the clean-up slot and not having enough power. That does not usually mean you DFA your best power guy and find someone else. You usually replace a lower power guy.

 

I've made my position clear. I want to bring HRam back in a more limited role, perhaps to prevent him from vesting his option, if he looks bad next year. If he looks good, we did the right thing. If he looks bad, we don't pay $22M in 2019. Don't try to paint me into some HRam apologist or super fan. I'm not.

 

I hated the signing from the first second. I wish we could trade him for a bag of balls and have his $22M to spend on JD Martinez. I'm not for eating his $22M and then having to not only replace his power but then add 50+ more HRs elsewhere.

 

I guess you want to replace HRam with a 5 HR guy like Travis and then sign a 30 HR guy. That's a net HR loss over HRam and Moreland.

 

 

I would think that with all the virtues that you listed yesterday that there would be several GMs looking to trade for the dredded one. Even if the Sox had to eat some of his contract. Then they could use the money saved to sign your binky Martinez and possibly Santana.

 

Now pardon me while I go look for a clue.

[S5Dewey]

 

Now pardon me while I go look for a clue.

 

The Butler did it, in the end zone, with a pick.

[moonslav59]

I would think that with all the virtues that you listed yesterday that there would be several GMs looking to trade for the dredded one. Even if the Sox had to eat some of his contract. Then they could use the money saved to sign your binky Martinez and possibly Santana.

 

Now pardon me while I go look for a clue.

 

I'd trade HRam and pay $7M of his deal. We'd save $15M year one and maybe $22M year two.

 

I do NOT want to eat $22M from our top HR% player and then have to replace his 24 Hrs as well as find 40+ we need anyways. I guess, if we could get Stanton, we might get 64 right there.

 

[devildavid]

Agreed, He was also playing hurt in 2015.

 

The guy was second on the team in HRs and first in HR %, yet some people want to DFA him and pay him $44M to get healthy and possibly rake elsewhere.

 

Hanley will most likely be playing hurt for the rest of his career. That is the reason to cut him.

[moonslav59]

Hanley will most likely be playing hurt for the rest of his career. That is the reason to cut him.

 

Is our roster so deep, we can't afford to see if he is healthy next year?

 

Is him keeping Travis or Lin in AAA for a few more months really going to make a difference?

 

Look, I'm for signing JD Martinez and Duda, so it's not like I'm planning on 650 PAs and an .850 OPS from HRam next year, but I just don't see cutting him and allowing him to vest next year with the A's or hit .900 with the Yanks.

 

After all, his MO is to be healthy every other year.

[Northern Star]

Do we have an idea of how much money is available to be spent next year?

[SoxHop]

There is no way we are cutting Hanley and dropping 22 mil. End of story.

 

We just have to hope he gets his mojo back........

[moonslav59]

HRam's OPS

 

.853 2010

.712 2011 (385 PAs)

.759 2012

1.040 2013 (336 PAs)

.817 2014

.717 2015 (430 PAs)

.866 2016

.750 2017

 

Injuries have been plentiful. No doubt.

 

[moonslav59]

Do we have an idea of how much money is available to be spent next year?

 

My guess is just enough to stay below the second penalty tier limit.

[SoxHop]

HRam's OPS

 

.853 2010

.712 2011 (385 PAs)

.759 2012

1.040 2013 (336 PAs)

.817 2014

.717 2015 (430 PAs)

.866 2016

.750 2017

 

Injuries have been plentiful. No doubt.

 

 

It's been behind the scenes. But there has been talk about how Hanley's shoulder has been hurt. I think it is pretty evident in the way he hit this year.

 

It sucks because I beleive he maybe the best hitter on the team when fully healthy. And I understand why he was hurt in 2015 as we all saw him hit the wall.

 

But it almost seemed like he was hurt from the beginning of the year this year, which to me screams out old age or a chronic issue.

 

I guess I see a person who didn't have a play that injured him have an injury for pretty much an entire year and I.......... have to think this is the beginning of the end of the guy...

[moonslav59]

It's been behind the scenes. But there has been talk about how Hanley's shoulder has been hurt. I think it is pretty evident in the way he hit this year.

 

It sucks because I beleive he maybe the best hitter on the team when fully healthy. And I understand why he was hurt in 2015 as we all saw him hit the wall.

 

But it almost seemed like he was hurt from the beginning of the year this year, which to me screams out old age or a chronic issue.

 

I guess I see a person who didn't have a play that injured him have an injury for pretty much an entire year and I.......... have to think this is the beginning of the end of the guy...

 

Apparently, both shoulders were hurt this year. Maybe it is a chronic thing, and we can't expect any better going forward.

 

I've mentioned he might need surgery, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him get it this winter. That could help or hurt his 2018 numbers.

 

JF said early this season that HRam would not play 1B the rest of the season, but then he did--a little.

 

Who knows?

 

[a700hitter]

Me too but.

 

I liked Kalish too. Shame about him, really.

I liked that kid's swing from his first spring training with the Red Sox.

[devildavid]

Apparently, both shoulders were hurt this year. Maybe it is a chronic thing, and we can't expect any better going forward.

 

I've mentioned he might need surgery, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him get it this winter. That could help or hurt his 2018 numbers.

 

JF said early this season that HRam would not play 1B the rest of the season, but then he did--a little.

 

Who knows?

 

 

My injury concerns about Hanley started when they signed him and I see no reason to change my view. It was a very bad signing due to the contact length and amount. Sometimes you have to cut your losses, no matter how big. If there is any possibility of trading him I am all for that.

[moonslav59]

My injury concerns about Hanley started when they signed him and I see no reason to change my view. It was a very bad signing due to the contact length and amount. Sometimes you have to cut your losses, no matter how big. If there is any possibility of trading him I am all for that.

 

Sometimes, you do, yes, but not before we see how he looks next spring. And, not when we may be able to prevent a $22M payment in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Anyone else getting even more seriously concerned about the lack of defensive skills possessed by Devers?

 

I know his offense makes up for most or all of it, but man-o-man....

 

[devildavid]

Anyone else getting even more seriously concerned about the lack of defensive skills possessed by Devers?

 

I know his offense makes up for most or all of it, but man-o-man....

 

 

The kid was brought up so fast because of the desperate need for offense from 3b he never got a chance to develop his defensive skills in the minors. We could be in store for some rocky on the job training.

[S5Dewey]

Anyone else getting even more seriously concerned about the lack of defensive skills possessed by Devers?

 

I know his offense makes up for most or all of it, but man-o-man....

 

 

Devers looks better at 3B because overall he's an improvement over what was there, but only on the offensive side of the ball. This team cannot have a player at 3B next year who's making wholesale errors. The idea of moving Devers to 1B and acquiring a real defensive 3B is beginning to gain some traction with me.

[a700hitter]

Devers looks better at 3B because overall he's an improvement over what was there, but only on the offensive side of the ball. This team cannot have a player at 3B next year who's making wholesale errors. The idea of moving Devers to 1B and acquiring a real defensive 3B is beginning to gain some traction with me.

He is only 20. It took Boggs some time to develop int a good fielder. I think the kid will improve his game at the hot corner.

[moonslav59]

He is only 20. It took Boggs some time to develop int a good fielder. I think the kid will improve his game at the hot corner.

 

I think he can, too.

 

He's so damn young, it's hard to imagine him not being able to improve to a significant extent. The issue may be how long it takes, and how much he may hurt us with his defense as he improves.

 

Since we need a 1Bman next year, and no FA first basemen are jump out at me as "must have", one has to consider the idea of seeking a great 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B, perhaps prematurely.

 

I'd be fine with getting Votto at a reasonable cost and letting Devers work hard on his D over the winter.

 

It might be easier to get Donaldson or Beltre. A trade and extend for Machado could be something to look into. I'm not sure Moustakas is a much better choice than Santana, Duda or Morrison.

[a700hitter]

I think he can, too.

 

He's so damn young, it's hard to imagine him not being able to improve to a significant extent. The issue may be how long it takes, and how much he may hurt us with his defense as he improves.

 

Since we need a 1Bman next year, and no FA first basemen are jump out at me as "must have", one has to consider the idea of seeking a great 3Bman and moving Devers to 1B, perhaps prematurely.

 

I'd be fine with getting Votto at a reasonable cost and letting Devers work hard on his D over the winter.

 

It might be easier to get Donaldson or Beltre. A trade and extend for Machado could be something to look into. I'm not sure Moustakas is a much better choice than Santana, Duda or Morrison.

Boggs was awful at his age, just awful.

[moonslav59]

Boggs was awful at his age, just awful.

 

True, and so was Bagwell, whom they traded rather than move to 1B.

 

I'm usually fine with giving young players a long rope on improving a singular weakness, but this team may have to greatly improve several weak spots to be highly competitive next season. I'm not sure we can afford to allow 45+ errors at 3B and beat the Yanks again to win the division.

[Larry Cook]

No doubt in my mind. Devers should be our first baseman next season.

 

As for who plays third next season. I think it is someone not on the current roster, preferably a power hitter who's played a lot of October baseball.

[Nick]

We were willing to live with Pablo at 3B. But Devers is not good enough for US? IDIOTIC.

 

Focus guys, focus.

 

We need a power bat at 1B.

[a700hitter]

We were willing to live with Pablo at 3B. But Devers is not good enough for US? IDIOTIC.

 

Focus guys, focus.

 

We need a power bat at 1B.

Devers will get better with the glove. And big boppers at 1B are easier to get than a big bopper at 3B with a good glove.

[jad]

Since in the one game I saw Devers play in the minors, he made several incredibly athletic plays, I don't worry. The errors I've seen him make since seem (note "seem") routine and easily correctible mistakes--glove not in position, bad throws. These again "seem" to me easily fixable. Also, my favorite image of Frank Malzone (the only one locked in my memory), is a fairly common one, alas, of him standing near third and looking over his shoulder at a ball that just went through his legs.