A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[illinoisredsox]

Here’s the thing that I don’t get from sox fans and something I’ve already admitted on my playoff spots. I clearly don’t think “rooting” for a team makes any difference on the game, but it does change perspective.

 

Would any sox fan want the Yankees to lose, even if it damages their team’s playoff hopes?

 

If the Twins pull off the upset tonight, then they’re going to get smashed by the Guardians. Santana and Berrios are their only two good starters and Santana would be relegated to a single game. Kluber and Carrasco will already have a 2-0 lead on the Twins by the time Santana returns. If the Twins win tonight, you are effectively getting the Guardians with their rotation intact. If the Yankees win, then all bets are off. You’re still getting the Guardians in terms of likelihood, but there’s a far greater chance of a Yankees upset and a far better chance that Kluber has to throw twice and likely delayed until game 3, which is always good. Also, if the Yankees win tonight and win the series with the Guardians, then the sox have a far greater chance to win the AL as any Yankee-Sox series is destined for 7 and when there’s a game 7, anything can happen. I cannot stand the sox. But if the Yankees win tonight, I am rooting for them to beat Houston because I know my team will have a better shot at a World Series with Houston out of the way. I anticipate sox fans who are rational would think the same way about NYY vs CLE, but how many rational sox fans are there, right? Lol

 

I know this is in the Yankees thread too, but I put it in the wrong place initially. Reposted for self fellating...

 

I believe my signature says it all.

[Maxbialystock]

Here’s the thing that I don’t get from sox fans and something I’ve already admitted on my playoff spots. I clearly don’t think “rooting” for a team makes any difference on the game, but it does change perspective.

 

Would any sox fan want the Yankees to lose, even if it damages their team’s playoff hopes?

 

If the Twins pull off the upset tonight, then they’re going to get smashed by the Guardians. Santana and Berrios are their only two good starters and Santana would be relegated to a single game. Kluber and Carrasco will already have a 2-0 lead on the Twins by the time Santana returns. If the Twins win tonight, you are effectively getting the Guardians with their rotation intact. If the Yankees win, then all bets are off. You’re still getting the Guardians in terms of likelihood, but there’s a far greater chance of a Yankees upset and a far better chance that Kluber has to throw twice and likely delayed until game 3, which is always good. Also, if the Yankees win tonight and win the series with the Guardians, then the sox have a far greater chance to win the AL as any Yankee-Sox series is destined for 7 and when there’s a game 7, anything can happen. I cannot stand the sox. But if the Yankees win tonight, I am rooting for them to beat Houston because I know my team will have a better shot at a World Series with Houston out of the way. I anticipate sox fans who are rational would think the same way about NYY vs CLE, but how many rational sox fans are there, right? Lol

 

I know this is in the Yankees thread too, but I put it in the wrong place initially. Reposted for self fellating...

 

Weak logic. If the Yankees play the Guardians and beat them, they will be just as tough as the Guardians to beat in the ALCS. I do agree with the logic that the Twins could lose in 3 and the Yankees might go 5 against Cleveland, but even there the winner will be still be tough in the ALCS. We needed 7 to beat the Yankees in the ALCS in 2004 and swept the Cardinals in the WS, and did exactly the same thing vs. Cleveland in the ALCS and Colorado in the WS in 2007.

 

Moreover, I do believe that in the John Henry era the Sox have the better postseason record than the Yankees. The Yankees not getting to the ALDS will simply continue that trend, made especially sweet by the fact that this year the Yankees net runs scored are a bodacious +198 and the Twins a paltry +27 and the Sox is nice but not great +117.

[moonslav59]

Weak logic. If the Yankees play the Guardians and beat them, they will be just as tough as the Guardians to beat in the ALCS. I do agree with the logic that the Twins could lose in 3 and the Yankees might go 5 against Cleveland, but even there the winner will be still be tough in the ALCS. We needed 7 to beat the Yankees in the ALCS in 2004 and swept the Cardinals in the WS, and did exactly the same thing vs. Cleveland in the ALCS and Colorado in the WS in 2007.

 

Moreover, I do believe that in the John Henry era the Sox have the better postseason record than the Yankees. The Yankees not getting to the ALDS will simply continue that trend, made especially sweet by the fact that this year the Yankees net runs scored are a bodacious +198 and the Twins a paltry +27 and the Sox is nice but not great +117.

 

Well said, Max. I'm with you 100%!

[Maxbialystock]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

 

Bullpen could be huge, agreed, but not that Kimbrel needs to become Paul Bunyan. We were swept by Cleveland in the ALDS last year largely because Porcello gave up 4 in the first 3 innings and Price gave up 4 in the first 2 innings. Hard to recover from that no matter how good the bullpen.

 

What's nice about the ALDS is the break between games 2 and 3 and again between 4 and 5. But I still think the right move is to use Price, Reed, and Kimbrel for the last 3 innings. Since May 11, Kimrel has pitched 1.1 innings (and nothing more than that) five times, and was scored on in two of those games. He was great in September--1 run in 12 innings-- in part because they were all 1 inning appearances. Price has relieved 5 times in September and 8.2 innings, including one for 2.2 innings--and he is unscored upon. He's the guy who might come in in the 6th inning, but the starter still needs to go 5 or Barnes or Kelly or whoever needs to come in earlier. Reed was great in September except that one bad .1 inning against the yankees on Sep 3 when he gave up 3 in a 9-2 loss. So, me, I think Kimbrel needs to stay Kimbrel and pitch one inning or at the absolute most 1.1 innings.

 

Let's not forget the danger of spending your bullpen in the first 9 innings and then have to go extra innings. The point is, spend the bullpen lavishly, maybe, to keep a lead but not necessarily to keep it close.

[moonslav59]

With 3 days off before this series and 2 days off during the series, we can get 4+ innings from Kimbrel, Price and Reed every game.

 

1 to 1.1 IP Kimbrel

1 to 1.1 IP Reed

1.1 to 2 IP Price

 

Anything can happen, but I have a lot of confidence in all three.

 

The next group is certainly not a group I have extreme confidence in, but many have done a fine job this year, while others have looked very well at times. I'm feeling pretty good about these 3:

 

Kelly

Workman

Barnes

 

Maybe Maddox and/or Scott fill out the rest of the staff roster, and both have nice numbers in somewhat smaller sample sizes.

I think we can yank a starter very early, as long as it's not 2 games in a row (1 & 2 or 3 & 4).

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Minnesota gets knocked out in 3. A NYY-CLE series should go 5. You don’t want a rested and well set up staff going into the alcs

[moonslav59]

Minnesota gets knocked out in 3. A NYY-CLE series should go 5. You don’t want a rested and well set up staff going into the alcs

 

Conjecture.

 

Educated guess.

 

Too much rest could cause rustiness.

 

Who knows.

 

The Sox don't play today, so the Yanks losing is the best there can be.

[Kimmi]

I believe my signature says it all.

 

As I've said before, I am on board with your signature.

[notin]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

 

Every time someone has one of those "there's only one way to win," reality frequently proves there was another.

 

The only axiom that holds true all the time would be - the only way the Sox win is if they score more runs than the Astros three times...

[moonslav59]

Every time someone has one of those "there's only one way to win," reality frequently proves there was another.

 

The only axiom that holds true all the time would be - the only way the Sox win is if they score more runs than the Astros three times...

 

Or, they let up less runs 3 times!

[notin]

Minnesota gets knocked out in 3. A NYY-CLE series should go 5. You don’t want a rested and well set up staff going into the alcs

 

Homerism much?

 

The Guardians are equally capable of sweeping the Yankees as they are the Twins.

[notin]

Or, they let up less runs 3 times!

 

Curses! There was still another way!

[moonslav59]

Curses! There was still another way!

 

I'm working on a third way. I'll get back to you.

[Larry Cook]

A realistic view of 2017. This year definitely has to be considered a success as we have repeated as division champs,

 

But does anybody else feel that anything short of a spot in the World Series is a bit of a let down?

[a700hitter]

A realistic view of 2017. This year definitely has to be considered a success as we have repeated as division champs,

 

But does anybody else feel that anything short of a spot in the World Series is a bit of a let down?

No, not at all.

[moonslav59]

A realistic view of 2017. This year definitely has to be considered a success as we have repeated as division champs,

 

But does anybody else feel that anything short of a spot in the World Series is a bit of a let down?

 

Of course, I'll feel let down.

 

If we beat Houston and lose in a close series to the Guardians, I won't necessarily call it unsuccessful...

 

...unless we lose on a bonehead play.

[SoxHop]

A realistic view of 2017. This year definitely has to be considered a success as we have repeated as division champs,

 

But does anybody else feel that anything short of a spot in the World Series is a bit of a let down?

 

We laughed, we cried, we ended up ALE champs. I think that is pretty dang good.

 

I'd like to see us competative this up coming series though. Another three game and out will really be a let down, but not on the season as a whole.

 

This season has been strange for sure. The lack of run support made parts of it dull, but really stretches of any season can be pretty dull......

 

We should get a thread going for peoples high points of the year. Vasquez and Fister come to my mind off the bat....... Sale for sure......I dig Lin and Marrero a bit too. There are too many to name.....

[jacksonianmarch]

You guys are sounding defeated already. Some seasons, making the playoffs is a surprise and something that really should be considered a success. The sox were built to win a title. If you don't make the WS, then this season was a waste. Your cliff is coming.

[SoxHop]

You guys are sounding defeated already. Some seasons, making the playoffs is a surprise and something that really should be considered a success. The sox were built to win a title. If you don't make the WS, then this season was a waste. Your cliff is coming.

 

If Price wasn't hurt this year I think what you said would have been 89 percent true. But playoffs are playoffs.

 

I like the "Winter is Coming" John Snow thing you got going there.....

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m thinking of “sig-ing” it, lol

[moonslav59]

You guys are sounding defeated already. Some seasons, making the playoffs is a surprise and something that really should be considered a success. The sox were built to win a title. If you don't make the WS, then this season was a waste. Your cliff is coming.

 

Right.

 

The whole plan was to win a ring (or two) in the 3-4 year window.

 

It wasn't to make the playoffs 3-4 years in a row.

[Bellhorn04]

Right.

 

The whole plan was to win a ring (or two) in the 3-4 year window.

 

It wasn't to make the playoffs 3-4 years in a row.

 

How do you know the plan wasn't to make the playoffs 3-4 years in a row?

[cp176]

How do you know the plan wasn't to make the playoffs 3-4 years in a row?

 

Glad you said that. There are plenty of people here who seem to think that they know what "the plan" has been. What do they know that others don't? Is it possible that "the plan" is just to be as good as you can be every year.

[moonslav59]

How do you know the plan wasn't to make the playoffs 3-4 years in a row?

 

If we traded away our extended future just to make the playoffs 4-5 years in a row, I'll be disappointing.

 

I'm sure making the playoffs every year is tied to making more money and keeping interest high, but I'm pretty sure the goal is to get us to be highly competitive, which means being very near favorites at winning the championship. If Price was 100%, I think we'd be right up there with the Guardians and Dodgers. As it is now, we're still given better odds than some playoff teams.

 

Of course, this is just my opinion, but I'm pretty sure DD and Henry's goal is to win a ring.

 

[moonslav59]

Glad you said that. There are plenty of people here who seem to think that they know what "the plan" has been. What do they know that others don't? Is it possible that "the plan" is just to be as good as you can be every year.

 

I don't pretend to "know the plan". Of course part of the plan at trying to win the championship involves the side benefit of being competitive enough to make the playoffs, draw crowds, increase TV viewership and souvenir purchases.

 

I think the realistic goal of about 5-7 teams is to try hard to win it all.

 

Yes, it is possible to "be as good as you can be every year". I never said I have any inside information on what Henry's "plan" is.

 

I'm also not the one saying I know more about baseball, because I played the game.

[jacksonianmarch]

Glad you said that. There are plenty of people here who seem to think that they know what "the plan" has been. What do they know that others don't? Is it possible that "the plan" is just to be as good as you can be every year.

 

 

Think about it. You guys were a last place team two years in a row with a stacked farm. The farm graduated a few players and was dealt away for now players. Your farm is decimated. As these now players either age out or get paid out, your cliff becomes more likely. Plus, you’re not blowing anything up to replenish and you’re picking at the back end of the draft. Your farm will take years to rebuild and will likely require a few lean years to do it right

[SoxnCycles]

Think about it. You guys were a last place team two years in a row with a stacked farm. The farm graduated a few players and was dealt away for now players. Your farm is decimated. As these now players either age out or get paid out, your cliff becomes more likely. Plus, you’re not blowing anything up to replenish and you’re picking at the back end of the draft. Your farm will take years to rebuild and will likely require a few lean years to do it right

 

Nah, we'll just trade whatever "fill-in-the-blank sucks" players, restock the farm system and be good to go.

[S5Dewey]

Meh. IMHO the alleged "plan" was to be able to make the playoffs every year in this 3-4 year window with the knowledge that making the PO's doesn't guarantee a WS Championship, but it certainly increases the chances!

 

This is year ONE of that 3-4 year window and they made the playoffs in spite of David Price being non-existent. Let's wait until that window is closed before we declare the plan a bust.

[Bellhorn04]

Meh. IMHO the alleged "plan" was to be able to make the playoffs every year in this 3-4 year window with the knowledge that making the PO's doesn't guarantee a WS Championship, but it certainly increases the chances!

 

Yes, it's as simple as that.

[S5Dewey]

 

I'm also not the one saying I know more about baseball, because I played the game.

 

Hmmm.. A cheap shot! When did you sink to the level of everyone else here? LOL

 

I don't see it as being unreasonable to believe that one doesn't know what goes on in another's profession until they've been a part of it.