A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[cp176]

One thing that really striked me is how many come from behind games and extra inning games we won. A lot has of credit has to be given to the bullpen on that one, but for some reason I think there is a sliver of managerial success in all those wins.

 

I could not agree more.

[cp176]

 

Farrell did keep the train on the tracks this year which I think is his primary job. Just don't let the team explode. If you really think about all the stuff he has to deal with everyday, it is probably more impressive than people would think. He's dealing with a staff of players who all have their issues, coaches, upper managment, the fans, broadcasters. He's analyzing what has occured and how to make things better and also preparing for the future. Keeping the train on the tracks may sound easier than it really is. And not only that, if you just accomplish that, you get an average rating.

 

This post sums up where I am coming coming from.

[cp176]

Farrell has overcome season ending injuries to several pitchers.

 

He has overcome poor decisions by dombrowski, i.e. Trading Shaw and giving Pablo the starting 3rd base job.

 

He has overcome an endless stream of walking wounded, pedroia, Hanley, boegarts, Moreland, Bradley, Nunez and price.

 

He has overcome some head scratching under performers this year. Betts and porcello.

 

He has overcome a lineup with a complete lack of power.

 

And most important, he has overcome a Yankees team that has played over their head for almost the entire year.

 

I don't know what else he could have done better this year, except maybe grab a bat and pencil himself into the lineup.

 

Just think what he could have been if he had a decent GM to work with?

 

If we did not have Dynamic Dave leading the way we would have been battling Baltimore for the last slot.

[cp176]

He overcame Sale.

 

He overcame turning a Cy Young winner into dirt.

 

He overcame Vaz breaking out.

 

He overcame squat.

 

The team overcame all these issues and won, despite JF and all the bonehead plays.

 

 

? whatever

[Kimmi]

Farrell did keep the train on the tracks this year which I think is his primary job. Just don't let the team explode. If you really think about all the stuff he has to deal with everyday, it is probably more impressive than people would think. He's dealing with a staff of players who all have their issues, coaches, upper managment, the fans, broadcasters. He's analyzing what has occured and how to make things better and also preparing for the future. Keeping the train on the tracks may sound easier than it really is. And not only that, if you just accomplish that, you get an average rating.

 

I just posted in another thread that I think the job a manager does off the field is far more important than making the in game decisions. Keep the train on the tracks, as you say. Boston has to be one of the hardest places to keep everything together.

 

As far as the in game decisions go, I don't think he's really much better or much worse than most of the managers.

[Northern Star]

He overcame Sale.

 

He overcame turning a Cy Young winner into dirt.

 

He overcame Vaz breaking out.

 

He overcame squat.

 

The team overcame all these issues and won, despite JF and all the bonehead plays.

 

Just because you keep repeating something over and over, doesn't make it true. Just tiresome.

[moonslav59]

If we did not have Dynamic Dave leading the way we would have been battling Baltimore for the last slot.

 

The Thornburg and Price deals are the only ones that have not helped the 2017 Sox, yet Larry makes it sound like Jf won it despite DD.

 

Where would we be without Sale and DD's willingness to go all out to get him?

 

Also, Moreland did what we expected. Nunez was a nice get. Calling up the 20 year old, defensively-challenged, Devers worked well. Fister. Maybe even carson Smith and Reed will make a difference.

 

[moonslav59]

Just because you keep repeating something over and over, doesn't make it true. Just tiresome.

 

Well, I'm tired of watching you guys stroke a clown.

 

So, we're even.

[Bellhorn04]

The Thornburg and Price deals are the only ones that have not helped the 2017 Sox, yet Larry makes it sound like Jf won it despite DD.

 

Where would we be without Sale and DD's willingness to go all out to get him?

 

Also, Moreland did what we expected. Nunez was a nice get. Calling up the 20 year old, defensively-challenged, Devers worked well. Fister. Maybe even carson Smith and Reed will make a difference.

 

 

Larry really has it in for DD.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to argue against DD's building of the team for a 3 year window.

 

Sale

Pom

Kimbrel

Price (injury issue)

Nunez (hopefully returns strong)

Moreland

Reed

 

Smith was no harm- no foul as Miley has sucked.

Young- meh.

 

Thornburg's injury was hurtful as Shaw raked, but this is the only deal that looks really bad for the 2017-2019 roster.

[Elktonnick]

From my point of view Farrell gets an A- minus for his managing this team to the division title. Up until the ASB I would have given him about a C but since then he (again much to my surprise) did an excellent job over coming some tough hurdles to get them to the ALE title. For me his most brilliant move was empowering Butterfield to unleash the running game. With no real consistent power hitter and injuries to some key players (Bogaerts' wrist and Ramirez's shoulder) he got the most out of this team's offensive capabilities. He recognized early on that Sandoval was useless and played mix and match at 3rd until Devers arrived.

 

Dombrowski's only major failure was not getting a big bat. But, he did make some great acquisitions during the year Nunez and Reed and calling up Devers. Nunez and Devers arrival came at the key moment. Remember everyone and I mean everyone had certified the Yankees as ALE champions when the made their trade deadline moves but it worked out differently. Dombrowski also gets an A-.

 

Now the playoffs are for me a whole new season. Anything can happen in a short series. The Yankees could end up playing the Rockies in the World Series. Hell ! Don't I think that will happen. If you don't believe me just ask President Hillary Clinton or President John Kerry.

[moonslav59]

From my point of view Farrell gets an A- minus for his managing this team to the division title. Up until the ASB I would have given him about a C but since then he (again much to my surprise) did an excellent job over coming some tough hurdles to get them to the ALE title. For me his most brilliant move was empowering Butterfield to unleash the running game. With no real consistent power hitter and injuries to some key players (Bogaerts' wrist and Ramirez's shoulder) he got the most out of this team's offensive capabilities. He recognized early on that Sandoval was useless and played mix and match at 3rd until Devers arrived.

 

Dombrowski's only major failure was not getting a big bat. But, he did make some great acquisitions during the year Nunez and Reed and calling up Devers. Nunez and Devers arrival came at the key moment. Remember everyone and I mean everyone had certified the Yankees as ALE champions when the made their trade deadline moves but it worked out differently. Dombrowski also gets an A-.

 

Now the playoffs are for me a whole new season. Anything can happen in a short series. The Yankees could end up playing the Rockies in the World Series. Hell ! Don't I think that will happen. If you don't believe me just ask President Hillary Clinton or President John Kerry.

 

I did see improvement over the second half- in terms of less blunders and bonehead plays.

 

I also think the additions of Devers, Nunez, Reed and Workman made JF's 2nd half job easier.

[moonslav59]

We have the 26th draft pick next year.

 

There are no lost 1st round picks this year due to QO FA signings.

[moonslav59]

Starters:

 

ERA- Pitcher WHIP

 

64 Sale 0.97

69 Keuchel 1.12

73 Pomeranz 1.35

76 Verlander 1.17

76 Peacock 1.22

86 Morton 1.10

93 ERod 1.29

101 McCullers 1.30

102 Porcello 1.40

 

RP'ers

WHIP Pitcher xFIP-

0.68 Kimbrel 34

0.86 Musgrove 73

0.96 Devenski 80

0.97 Harris 67

0.99 Scott 107

1.05 Reed 89

1.19 Kelly98

1.21 Workman 98

1.22 Barnes 74

 

 

[Nick]

My ONLY criticism of JF is he is stubborn to 'come off' a player even when the said player is struggling mightily. Holt is having a bad year. His numbers tell you that he's having a bad year. Now he's doing the same thing with Young. He's having a horrible year. He needs not to be on the playoff roster. Quit beating a dead horse.

 

Best thing we did was to call up Devers (instead of trading away prospects for overpriced veteran), picking up a 'hot' bat in Nunez who continued to stay hot and added bullpen depth with Reed. Not sure what kind of team this would have been without Kimbrel, Sale and Pomeranz.

 

DD has delivered. Back to back Division titles.

 

Now that we've reset the penalty rate for 2018, we can add that power bat. Wasn't that the plan all along when we signed Moreland to one year deal?

 

We'll have close to $60M coming off the books after 2019 season (Porcello, Hanley and Pablo). Must signs are Pom (2019) and Sale (2020) and Betts (2020).

Edited October 3, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

My ONLY criticism of JF is he is stubborn to 'come off' a player even when the said player is struggling mightily. Holt is having a bad year. His numbers tell you that he's having a bad year. Now he's doing the same thing with Young. He's having a horrible year. He needs not to be on the playoff roster. Quit beating a dead horse.

 

Best thing we did was to call up Devers (instead of trading away prospects for overpriced veteran), picking up a 'hot' bat in Nunez who continued to stay hot and added bullpen depth with Reed. Not sure what kind of team this would have been without Kimbrel, Sale and Pomeranz.

 

DD has delivered. Back to back Division titles.

 

Now that we've reset the penalty rate for 2018, we can add that power bat. Wasn't that the plan all along when we signed Moreland to one year deal?

 

We'll have close to $60M coming off the books after 2019 season (Porcello, Hanley and Pablo). Must signs are Pom (2019) and Sale (2020) and Betts (2020).

 

Well said, Nick.

 

I do think signing Pom is a very high priority. We also have Kimbrel coming off the books after next season. Re-signing them or replacing them, in kind, will not be cheap.

 

Assuming Sale and Betts remain healthy and looking good, they are my top priority signings going forward- maybe before or after 2019.

[jacksonianmarch]

Starters:

 

ERA- Pitcher WHIP

 

64 Sale 0.97

69 Keuchel 1.12

73 Pomeranz 1.35

76 Verlander 1.17

76 Peacock 1.22

86 Morton 1.10

93 ERod 1.29

101 McCullers 1.30

102 Porcello 1.40

 

RP'ers

WHIP Pitcher xFIP-

0.68 Kimbrel 34

0.86 Musgrove 73

0.96 Devenski 80

0.97 Harris 67

0.99 Scott 107

1.05 Reed 89

1.19 Kelly98

1.21 Workman 98

1.22 Barnes 74

 

 

 

You left off the Astros closer, Giles

[Nick]

Well said, Nick.

 

I do think signing Pom is a very high priority. We also have Kimbrel coming off the books after next season. Re-signing them or replacing them, in kind, will not be cheap.

 

Assuming Sale and Betts remain healthy and looking good, they are my top priority signings going forward- maybe before or after 2019.

 

I'd love to have Kimbrel back but it's always risky giving closers a long term deal. I'm obviously opposed to given him Chapman deal.

[moonslav59]

I'd love to have Kimbrel back but it's always risky giving closers a long term deal. I'm obviously opposed to given him Chapman deal.

 

Maybe by then, Smith will have shown he is worthy.

 

I am never for paying closers huge money.

 

(Papelbon, Chapman...)

[moonslav59]

Updated...

 

Starters:

 

ERA- Pitcher WHIP

 

64 Sale 0.97

69 Keuchel 1.12

73 Pomeranz 1.35

76 Verlander 1.17

76 Peacock 1.22

86 Morton 1.10

93 ERod 1.29

101 McCullers 1.30

102 Porcello 1.40

 

RP'ers

WHIP Pitcher xFIP-

0.68 Kimbrel 34

0.86 Musgrove 73

0.96 Devenski 80

0.97 Harris 67

0.99 Scott 107

1.04 Giles 70

1.05 Reed 89

1.19 Kelly98

1.21 Workman 98

1.22 Barnes 74

[jacksonianmarch]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

[moonslav59]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

 

The "only way"?

 

Any team can win any series.

 

We just have to play our best or near best.\

 

No mental blunders.

 

I'm psyched having Price, so I'm not messing with Kimbrel all of a sudden.

[Spudboy]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

 

What about Price? Can't he be used for the 8th? Can't he be used for the 7th and 8th? Can't he be a factor in any high leverage situation?

 

I think the Sox will lose this series but I disagree with you about how they can win it.

[a700hitter]

What about Price? Can't he be used for the 8th? Can't he be used for the 7th and 8th? Can't he be a factor in any high leverage situation?

 

I think the Sox will lose this series but I disagree with you about how they can win it.

or the 6th or 7th.

[jacksonianmarch]

I meant Price, not Kelly.

[BstHcpr]

or the 6th or 7th.

 

Or the 3rd or 4th when Rodriguez starts issuing free passes.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the thing that I don’t get from sox fans and something I’ve already admitted on my playoff spots. I clearly don’t think “rooting” for a team makes any difference on the game, but it does change perspective.

 

Would any sox fan want the Yankees to lose, even if it damages their team’s playoff hopes?

 

If the Twins pull off the upset tonight, then they’re going to get smashed by the Guardians. Santana and Berrios are their only two good starters and Santana would be relegated to a single game. Kluber and Carrasco will already have a 2-0 lead on the Twins by the time Santana returns. If the Twins win tonight, you are effectively getting the Guardians with their rotation intact. If the Yankees win, then all bets are off. You’re still getting the Guardians in terms of likelihood, but there’s a far greater chance of a Yankees upset and a far better chance that Kluber has to throw twice and likely delayed until game 3, which is always good. Also, if the Yankees win tonight and win the series with the Guardians, then the sox have a far greater chance to win the AL as any Yankee-Sox series is destined for 7 and when there’s a game 7, anything can happen. I cannot stand the sox. But if the Yankees win tonight, I am rooting for them to beat Houston because I know my team will have a better shot at a World Series with Houston out of the way. I anticipate sox fans who are rational would think the same way about NYY vs CLE, but how many rational sox fans are there, right? Lol

 

I know this is in the Yankees thread too, but I put it in the wrong place initially. Reposted for self fellating...

[S5Dewey]

Here’s the thing that I don’t get from sox fans and something I’ve already admitted on my playoff spots. I clearly don’t think “rooting” for a team makes any difference on the game, but it does change perspective.

 

Would any sox fan want the Yankees to lose, even if it damages their team’s playoff hopes?

 

If the Twins pull off the upset tonight, then they’re going to get smashed by the Guardians. Santana and Berrios are their only two good starters and Santana would be relegated to a single game. Kluber and Carrasco will already have a 2-0 lead on the Twins by the time Santana returns. If the Twins win tonight, you are effectively getting the Guardians with their rotation intact. If the Yankees win, then all bets are off. You’re still getting the Guardians in terms of likelihood, but there’s a far greater chance of a Yankees upset and a far better chance that Kluber has to throw twice and likely delayed until game 3, which is always good. Also, if the Yankees win tonight and win the series with the Guardians, then the sox have a far greater chance to win the AL as any Yankee-Sox series is destined for 7 and when there’s a game 7, anything can happen. I cannot stand the sox. But if the Yankees win tonight, I am rooting for them to beat Houston because I know my team will have a better shot at a World Series with Houston out of the way. I anticipate sox fans who are rational would think the same way about NYY vs CLE, but how many rational sox fans are there, right? Lol

 

I know this is in the Yankees thread too, but I put it in the wrong place initially. Reposted for self fellating...

 

Look, I know your're right from a rational perspective, but this is the MFY we're talking about here!! You're preaching to a lot of old guys here who have long memories of Yankee smack-downs. It's HARD for us to root for the Yankees!

[moonslav59]

Any time the Yanks lose, it's good news.

The only "if" would be when we need them to win to knock out a team, so we can make the playoffs.

[S5Dewey]

There is only one way the sox win this series aside from a total Houston meltdown. They MUST be willing to go to Kimbrel in the 8th inning. You're not shutting down the offense for the whole series. If you have a lead in the middle innings, don't be afraid to go to Kelly and Reed then hand the ball to Kimbrel in the 8th. You MUST lock down any late inning leads you have and if that means you roll with the best closer in baseball for more than 3 outs, so be it. There will be at least one game where the Stros bats just explode and you won't keep up. As long as that game isn't an elimination game, let it go without burning Kimbrel. If you go 5, and throw Kimbrel 6 innings in the series (2IP for 3 appearances), then you roll with any fatigue that sets in on him. 5 game series' are tough, especially when you don't have home field and when you are facing a superior offense and a team that can match or better your staff, especially up front. This is going to be a hard series for the sox to win. If the Yankees take the game tonight, I will be rooting for it.

 

I'm not sure it's the ONLY way but I agree with this post in principle. It's like I've been saying for some time now - As long as Kimbrel isn't overworked use him in almost any high pressure situation from the 6th inning on. There's no point to having K on the bench while some other pitcher gives up the winning runs. Do your best to keep the game close and worry about the late innings when they get there.