A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Emp9]

I agree, but if the choice comes down to signing one of these 4 FAs, who do you want?

 

Hosmer

Duda

Alonso

Moustakas (30 HRs in 404 PAs this year, but not a big power hitter beforehand)

 

I'm not saying these are our only choices, but go with the question.

 

Carlos Santana?

[sk7326]

Carlos Santana?

 

Hosmer will probably be the cheapest - and there is a sense of untapped upside there

[harmony]

Hosmer will probably be the cheapest - and there is a sense of untapped upside there

Commentary on Eric Hosmer's worth on the free agent market:

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/2016/7/14/12189516/eric-hosmer-could-be-seeking-ten-year-200-million-deal

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/5/26/15688710/eric-hosmer-royals-kansas-city-free-agency-stats-purists

 

... and an analysis with an interesting comparison with Mitch Moreland:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-leaderboard-of-interest-to-potential-bidders-for-eric-hosmer/

Edited August 4, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Carlos Santana?

 

I wouldn't.

 

He's 5-11, no just kidding, but the guy has only been over .800 twice in his last 6 seasons.

 

34 HRs were nice last year, but he's only been over 20 twice in his last 6 years.

 

He'd be an upgrade, but my guess is, he's looking for a long term deal. He turns 32 in April.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting factoids on our most recent 5 game stretch:

 

39 runs scored

 

7 HRs in 5 games.

 

18 2Bs and 1 3B

 

21 BBs + 3 HBP + 2 reaches on dropped third strikes.

 

Our two best OPS guys are not Nunez or Devers.

 

Our two best OPS guys are our catchers!

3.000 Leon (granted, he's 1 for 1)

1.524 Vazquez (12 for 21 with a huge HR)

 

A week ago, who would of thought our OPS leaders would be these 6 players?

3.000 Leon

1.524 Vaz

1.415 Devers

1.355 Nunez

1.292 Holt

1.041 Moreland

(While this doea show the silliness of small sample sizes, I still think it's kind of amazing.)

 

Who is slumping?

.338 JBJ

.500 Young (0-1)

.623 Bogey

.675 HRam

 

Mid land or better:

.883 Beni

.755 Betts

 

[moonslav59]

AL Leaders in Winning %

.639 HOU

.550 BOS

.547 CLE

.533 NYY

.523 KCR

.518 TBR

.500 SEA

 

The AL East has the best winning% for their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place teams.

 

2nd

NYY .533, KCR .523, SEA .500

 

3rd

TBR .518, LAA .495, MN .481

 

4th

BAL .491, TEX .481, DET .467

 

5th

TOR .472, OAK .440, CWS .387

 

In fact, our last place team, TOR, is better than the Central Division's 4th place team, DET. Our 4th place team, BAL, has a better record than 3rd place MN. TBR has a better record than 2nd place SEA.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Andrew Miller to the DL.

 

Breslow signed to minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

Jay Bruce passed through revocable waivers.

 

I guess we didn't want him all along.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

This is the strangest season I can ever recall. As a lifelong Red Sox fan I'm just not used to a lineup where the heart of the order is littered with guys hitting .250-.270 with little power. Outside of Sale our starters are inconsistent, the bullpen issues are well documented and they have had injuries to key players. Yet here they are in the August with a 3 game lead. The infusion of Devers and Nunez has clearly been a huge reason as they have replaced two almost automatic outs with two huge bats. Obviously both will cool off but getting Pedroia (my favorite player) back will be great. Edited August 5, 2017 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[Kimmi]

This is the strangest season I can ever recall. As a lifelong Red Sox fan I'm just not used to a lineup where the heart of the order is littered with guys hitting .250-.270 with little power. Outside of Sale our starters are inconsistent' date=' the bullpen issues are well documented and they have had injuries to key players. Yet here they are in the August with a 3 game lead. The infusion of Devers and Nunez has clearly been a huge reason as they have replaced two almost automatic outs with two huge bats. Obviously both will cool off but getting Pedroia (my favorite player) back[/quote']

 

For all of the problems this team has had, both on and supposedly off the field, you can't complain about having a 3 game lead on August 5.

 

Second best record in the AL and one game better than where we stood at this time last year.

[moonslav59]

This is the strangest season I can ever recall. As a lifelong Red Sox fan I'm just not used to a lineup where the heart of the order is littered with guys hitting .250-.270 with little power. Outside of Sale our starters are inconsistent' date=' the bullpen issues are well documented and they have had injuries to key players. Yet here they are in the August with a 3 game lead. The infusion of Devers and Nunez has clearly been a huge reason as they have replaced two almost automatic outs with two huge bats. Obviously both will cool off but getting Pedroia (my favorite player) back[/quote']

 

It is strange, and the Sox fan paradigm might have to be shaken. Many other teams have won without hitting. They've won with a lot worse than ours is right now. We're used to winning with our offense, but if you look closer, the years we won were after adding a big arm (Schilling for '04, Beckett for '07 and Lackey for '13)

 

One thing I've heard is that it's near impossible to win with 2 black holes in the line-up. Check this out:

 

The KC Royals won in 2015 with this crap in their line-up:

Out of their top 9 PA players...

.552 Omar Infante (455 PAs)

.614 Alcides Escobar (662 PAs- 2nd on the team!!!)

.640 Alex Rios (411 PAs)

.706 Salvador Perez (553)

 

They also had this off their bench:

.691 Jarrod Dyson (225)

.692 Christian Colon (119)

 

They had no batters with more than 22 HRs and only 2 guys with more than 82 RBIs.

 

You want to know what was even more surprising? 4 of their top 6 starters by GS'd had ERAs over 4.07. The two that were uder were powerhouse pitchers named Edinson Volquez and Chris Freakin' Young!

 

We are not the 2015 Royals, but they are a good example for showing how there are more ways to win than by out-bashing your opponents.

 

While our rotation has been inconsistent, it's as good or better than anyone else's in the AL, especially when you shorten it to 3-4 starts for the playoff series.

 

According to fangraphs, here's how our starters rank by WAR among AL SPe'rs:

 

1. Sale 6.5 (The gap between Sale and Kluber 4.4 is more than Kluber vs the #10 SP in the AL.)

 

12 Pomeranz

 

18 Porcello

 

The Guardians have #2 (Kluber), #8 (Carrasco) and #13 (Bauer), but if Price or ERod can regain form, I think we have a clear edge. The Astros have no starters in thet op 30 and MIke Fiers is at 31.

 

We have the best closer in MLB and a top 10 defense.

 

Let's see if we can win one without a big-basher line-up.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

It is strange, and the Sox fan paradigm might have to be shaken. Many other teams have won without hitting. They've won with a lot worse than ours is right now. We're used to winning with our offense, but if you look closer, the years we won were after adding a big arm (Schilling for '04, Beckett for '07 and Lackey for '13)

 

One thing I've heard is that it's near impossible to win with 2 black holes in the line-up. Check this out:

 

The KC Royals won in 2015 with this crap in their line-up:

Out of their top 9 PA players...

.552 Omar Infante (455 PAs)

.614 Alcides Escobar (662 PAs- 2nd on the team!!!)

.640 Alex Rios (411 PAs)

.706 Salvador Perez (553)

 

They also had this off their bench:

.691 Jarrod Dyson (225)

.692 Christian Colon (119)

 

They had no batters with more than 22 HRs and only 2 guys with more than 82 RBIs.

 

You want to know what was even more surprising? 4 of their top 6 starters by GS'd had ERAs over 4.07. The two that were uder were powerhouse pitchers named Edinson Volquez and Chris Freakin' Young!

 

We are not the 2015 Royals, but they are a good example for showing how there are more ways to win than by out-bashing your opponents.

 

While our rotation has been inconsistent, it's as good or better than anyone else's in the AL, especially when you shorten it to 3-4 starts for the playoff series.

 

According to fangraphs, here's how our starters rank by WAR among AL SPe'rs:

 

1. Sale 6.5 (The gap between Sale and Kluber 4.4 is more than Kluber vs the #10 SP in the AL.)

 

12 Pomeranz

 

18 Porcello

 

The Guardians have #2 (Kluber), #8 (Carrasco) and #13 (Bauer), but if Price or ERod can regain form, I think we have a clear edge. The Astros have no starters in thet op 30 and MIke Fiers is at 31.

 

We have the best closer in MLB and a top 10 defense.

 

Let's see if we can win one without a big-basher line-up.

 

It's posts like this that make me visit this board. I'll admit it, as big of a sports fan as I am baseball is down my list a few spots. I can name every Redskins first round pick over the past 30 years. I know every Maryland basketball player who has ever played. But being from out of town and unable to watch most games I am a bit out of touch with the Sox and baseball in general when compared to my knowledge of the other sports. So I come here and appreciate the knowledge you folks have.

Edited August 5, 2017 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[moonslav59]

It's been fun watching the Sox lately, and hopefully our rotation will get healthy and back in the groove come playoff time.

[moonslav59]

so.....

 

Some studies show putting your best hitter up second is best.

 

Does this mean Holt is our best hitter?

 

At the risk of sounding non PC, and going against my sworn oath as a teacher to not use the "R" word, JF is retarded.

[a700hitter]

so.....

 

Some studies show putting your best hitter up second is best.

 

Does this mean Holt is our best hitter?

 

At the risk of sounding non PC, and going against my sworn oath as a teacher to not use the "R" word, JF is retarded.

No but it proves that we are managed by a Johnny Half-head.

[Bellhorn04]

so.....

 

Some studies show putting your best hitter up second is best.

 

Does this mean Holt is our best hitter?

 

At the risk of sounding non PC, and going against my sworn oath as a teacher to not use the "R" word, JF is retarded.

 

FWIW Tito has Guyer batting second tonight with a .680 OPS. I'm not sure many managers buy into the idea of putting one of your best hitters up second. Which is not to say Holt isn't an odd choice.

[moonslav59]

no but it proves that we are managed by a johnny half-head.

 

lol

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

When the Red Sox placed left-hander David Price on the disabled list last week on account of elbow issues, they were confident he’d return this season. Now, “the clock is working against” Price, writes Evan Drellich of CSNNE.com, as he’s dealing with soreness that prevented him from throwing from flat ground Friday. Afterward, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was unable to provide a timetable for a potential Price return. While Dombrowski noted that Price’s elbow has been “fine” when he has thrown, the executive conceded “the longer that he’s out, the longer it takes to come back, because you have to then build yourself back up.”

[mvp 78]

This is why I didn't buy the conspiracy that this DL stint was due to the Eck controversy.

[moonslav59]

This is why I didn't buy the conspiracy that this DL stint was due to the Eck controversy.

 

Me neither.

[mvp 78]

Lyons out at NESN due to domestic violence. Fantastic.

[Nick]

Brock Holt with OPS of .554. He just sucks. Does not belong.

 

And he bats 2nd. John, have you lost your mind?

[BstHcpr]

Lyons out at NESN due to domestic violence. Fantastic.

 

I don't know how he got a job in the first place.

[moonslav59]

Brock Holt with OPS of .554. He just sucks. Does not belong.

 

And he bats 2nd. John, have you lost your mind?

 

I'm not sure if this is a loyalty obsession by JF, or an old page from Sox managers in the past who when resting a player put his sub in the same batting slot.

 

The fact that Holt did okay yesterday and got a hit today, and we won both games will only encourage JF to continue this type of idiocy.

 

Even at his best, Holt is maybe a .700 hitter. We can't do better than that with our #2 hitter?

 

[moonslav59]

62-49

 

Last year:

61-50

 

We went to 61-52 last year before going on a 6 game winning streak this time last year.

 

[a700hitter]

62-49

 

Last year:

61-50

 

We went to 61-52 last year before going on a 6 game winning streak this time last year.

 

We had better learn how to beat the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

We had better learn how to beat the Yankees.

 

Or, hope the beat themselves.

[moonslav59]

A look at 2018's 40 man roster construction...

 

We have 47 men currently on the 40 man roster due to these 7 players on the 60 day DL:

Wright

Smith

Thornburg

Hernandez

Rutledge

Elias

Ross

 

Let's not count the 7 free agents to be:

Nunez

A Reed

Moreland

Young

Abad

Boyer

Fister

 

That puts us down to 40. Here are the Rule 5 players:

 

Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

 

These players will be minor league free agents unless added to the 40 man roster or re-signed:

 

Jeremy Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Tim Roberson, Jose Sermo, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

 

Out of the bolded players, maybe we'll try to keep/protect:

Beeks

Mars

Brentz

Barfield

and maybe

Olmos

Butler

Tavarez

 

(Note: Chavis is a Rule 5 candidate after 2018.)

 

That's 4-7 players. I think, at minimum, we'll sign at least one FA this winter- probably more like 2-3. That makes maybe 5- 8 spots needed to open up vis trades, DFAs or getting some to sign minor league deals.

 

So, who goes?

 

Here's my rankings (in order of who is most expendable):

 

1. Rutledge- Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero makes Josh expendable.

2. Steve Selsky- despite the lack of ML ready OF depth, I think he goes.

3. Noe Ramirez- He's had his chances, and we have plenty of pen depth on the farm.

4. Henry Owens- Maybe he deserves to be first or second on this list.

5. Roenis Elias- How long can injuries be an excuse?

6. Hector Velazquez- Here's where the choices get a little tougher. (Trade bait?)

7. Kyle Martin, Ben Taylor or Austin Maddox (One could be traded.)

8. Holt, Hernandez, Lin or Marrero (One could be traded.)

9. Scott, Hembree or Workman (One could be traded)

10. Leon or Swihart (One could be traded.)

 

It's way to early to know we might do, but some tough and not so tough decisions will have to be made.

 

 

[moonslav59]

We now have 8 HRs (and 13 doubles) in the last 4 games.

[Nick]

We now have 8 HRs (and 13 doubles) in the last 4 games.

 

4 runs on 5 hits, 2 2 run homers.

 

Value of Power.