A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Time for Part III.

 

Here's the link to Part II: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18094-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-II

 

Looks like we aren't getting the big bat many wanted, unless we do it via the waiver wire. We did pick up Addison Reed for Nogosek, Callahan & Bautista. He's a solid RP'er who gives us a nice secondary closer and a set-up man with a nice K rate (9.5 career/8.8 in 2017). If we can get Kelly and/or Smith back and pitching well, our pen might remain a plus to end the season.

 

I haven't heard who the Sox are sending down to AAA, but my guess is it will be Maddox. Here's the 25 man roster going forward:

 

5 SPers:

Sale

Pomeranz

Price (replaces Fister)

Porcello

Rodriguez

 

7 RPers:

Kimbrel

A Reed

C Smith (replaces Boyer)

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Kelly (replaces Abad)

 

2 C:

Vazquez

Leon

 

1B:

Ramirez (DH)

Moreland

 

2B:

Pedroia

Holt (UT)

 

3B:

Devers

Nunez (DH/SS/LF)

 

SS:

Bogaerts

 

LF:

Benintendi

Young (DH)

 

CF:

Bradley

 

RF:

Betts

 

Possible 2017 additions from the farm or DL:

SP: Velazquez, B Johnson (DL), Justin Haley, Jalen Beeks, Roenis Elias

RP: Robby Scott, Ben Taylor (DL), Edgar Olmos, Kyle Martin, Noe Ramirez

C: Dan Butler, Swihart (DL)

1B: Sam Travis

IF: Marrero & Lin

OF: Brentz (not on 40 man roster), Selsky, Castillo (not on 40 man roster)

 

Looks like the Yankees are our key competition for the AL East and the Astros and Guardians are looking better than us so far. The Yanks just added Gray & Garcia, so we have our work cut out for us. I still like our rotation, when healthy and having Kimbrel and Addison gives us a very nice 4 starters/2 RP'ers playoff group.

 

We have to make the playoffs first, and right now we're 1/2 game behind in the AL East and 1.5 up on the Royals for the home field in the WC game. We are 4 up on the Rays for the last playoff slot.

 

Here's the rest of our schedule:

 

Home: 31 (60% winning)

Away: 25 (48%)

 

10 NYY (3H/7A)

9 TOR (6H/3A)

8 TBR (6H/2A)

6 BAL (3H/3A)

7 CLE (3H/4A)

4 CWS

4 HOU (to end the season)

3 OAK

3 @ CIN

2 STL

 

 

If we can go 8-4 in the 12 games vs CWS, Oak, Cin & StL, 6-3 vs TOR and 4-2 vs BAL, then maybe we can get by going near .500 in our 29 games vs NYY, TBR, CLE & Hou.

 

Let's see. I'm actually pretty optimistic about this season despite our recent swoon.

 

[Bellhorn04]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

[moonslav59]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

 

Agreed, and if Devers and Nunez can keep contributing, we might be looking good come playoff time.

[oldtimer]

We need several guys to start hitting up to their abilities, most notably Mookie and XB.

 

Funny how we get Nunez and bring up Devers and they are both hitting like major parts of our lineup, while against the same pitchers we aren't getting much from Mookie, Beni, Hanley and Bradley at times. Thats not to mention Moreland who was talked about by the color man tonight as falling away when he swings, something I had mentioned earlier. Bogaerts just looks messed up at the plate, although somehow he managed to hit t he ball hard. Maybe that is just him but he has so much odd movement in his swing it is hard to believe that makes him a better hitter. He is a pretty big guy who shows little power. Pedey is injured but will likely hit once back. We need more than a couple of guys who are hitting with authority to have a dangerous offense. Are the guys not coachable or not being coached?

[moonslav59]

Nunez gives us a chance to cover for Pedey's injury, give Bogey a rest at SS, sit Beni vs tough lefties and maybe sit Moreland more than he would like to sit.

 

Devers could provide the spark we have been missing. If he keeps hitting, maybe the vets will catch on fire, too.

 

For some reason, I'm not too confident Bogey will regain his form this season. I think he needs a 10 day DL stint once Pedey returns.

 

Moreland may never come close to his start numbers.

 

Yes, we need Betts to get hot.

[Nick]

Devers 4-4....he's up there to get a hit....And he didn't cost us a thing!

[oldtimer]

Time for Part III.

 

Here's the link to Part II: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18094-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-II

 

Looks like we aren't getting the big bat many wanted, unless we do it via the waiver wire. We did pick up Addison Reed for Nogosek, Callahan & Bautista. He's a solid RP'er who gives us a nice secondary closer and a set-up man with a nice K rate (9.5 career/8.8 in 2017). If we can get Kelly and/or Smith back and pitching well, our pen might remain a plus to end the season.

 

I haven't heard who the Sox are sending down to AAA, but my guess is it will be Maddox. Here's the 25 man roster going forward:

 

5 SPers:

Sale

Pomeranz

Price (replaces Fister)

Porcello

Rodriguez

 

7 RPers:

Kimbrel

A Reed

C Smith (replaces Boyer)

Barnes

Hembree

Workman

Kelly (replaces Abad)

 

2 C:

Vazquez

Leon

 

1B:

Ramirez (DH)

Moreland

 

2B:

Pedroia

Holt (UT)

 

3B:

Devers

Nunez (DH/SS/LF)

 

SS:

Bogaerts

 

LF:

Benintendi

Young (DH)

 

CF:

Bradley

 

RF:

Betts

 

Possible 2017 additions from the farm or DL:

SP: Velazquez, B Johnson (DL), Justin Haley, Jalen Beeks, Roenis Elias

RP: Robby Scott, Ben Taylor (DL), Edgar Olmos, Kyle Martin, Noe Ramirez

C: Dan Butler, Swihart (DL)

1B: Sam Travis

IF: Marrero & Lin

OF: Brentz (not on 40 man roster), Selsky, Castillo (not on 40 man roster)

 

Looks like the Yankees are our key competition for the AL East and the Astros and Guardians are looking better than us so far. The Yanks just added Gray & Garcia, so we have our work cut out for us. I still like our rotation, when healthy and having Kimbrel and Addison gives us a very nice 4 starters/2 RP'ers playoff group.

 

We have to make the playoffs first, and right now we're 1/2 game behind in the AL East and 1.5 up on the Royals for the home field in the WC game. We are 4 up on the Rays for the last playoff slot.

 

Here's the rest of our schedule:

 

Home: 31 (60% winning)

Away: 25 (48%)

 

10 NYY (3H/7A)

9 TOR (6H/3A)

8 TBR (6H/2A)

6 BAL (3H/3A)

7 CLE (3H/4A)

4 CWS

4 HOU (to end the season)

3 OAK

3 @ CIN

2 STL

 

 

If we can go 8-4 in the 12 games vs CWS, Oak, Cin & StL, 6-3 vs TOR and 4-2 vs BAL, then maybe we can get by going near .500 in our 29 games vs NYY, TBR, CLE & Hou.

 

Let's see. I'm actually pretty optimistic about this season despite our recent swoon.

 

 

Maybe Fister replaces Price, especially if David has a worse strain than we have been given to believe.

[moonslav59]

Devers da man!

[Nick]

I really like Nunez....

[Larry Cook]

Time for mookie to join the party. Quit trying for a moonshot every at bat. Just get on base mookie!

 

Maybe we can get some life out of Moreland, bogey and rest of the zombies.

[moonslav59]

Good to see Vaz put a couple of good games together.

 

I almost choked when I saw Holt bat 2nd. This JF loyalty crap has to stop soon. Then, Holt gets on base 3 of 5 times! Go figure! His OPS is now over .500.

 

Top Sox OPS

 

1.231 Devers (27 PAs)

.806 Betts

.791 Pedey

.790 Nunez (2 teams)

.777 HRam

.775 JBJ

.775 Travis (50 PAs)

.748 Beni

.747 Bogey

.739 Lin (59 PAs)

.732 Moreland

.719 Young

.684 Leon

.672 Vaz

.628 Marco (60)

.622 Pablo (108)

.576 Marrero (166)

.558 Rutledge (118)

.506 Holt (63)

 

Looking to next year, if we can replace these numbers with Devers at 3B and a new big bat at 1B/DH, maybe our offense will return to top 3 status...

 

PAs OPS Player to be replaced

3B PAs only

142 .617 Marrero (.576 at all positions)

97 .603 Pablo (.622 overall)

64 .607 Rutledge (.558 overall)

30 .278 Holt (.506 overall)

27 .556 Hernandez 9.628 overall)

 

Replace with... Devers (a healthy Hernandez & Lin)

 

DH/1B

380 .734 Moreland at 1B (.732 overall)

47 .774 Young at DH (.710 overall)

 

Replace with a good FA and Travis (.775)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

None of our 8 top PA players this year are below .732. All 8 are within .075 of each other. (I counted Nunez in the 8.)

 

Our next 3 (9-11th in PAs) are within .047 of each other (between .672 and .719).

 

I'm not sure any other team has all of their top 11 PAs players over .672, but I'm not sure there are many teams without one top 11 player over .806 either.

 

[cp176]

The under peformance of all of our guys is just killing me here though. That might seem just a little sarcastic i guess. I have contended for quite some time that although we might think that these boys are capable of more, this might actually be closer to who they are as a group. Nunez and Devers have certainly given our stagnant offense a lift. More power is still needed in this lineup.

[mvp 78]

Devers isn't ready! Cafardo told me!

[cp176]

Devers isn't ready! Cafardo told me!

 

i wonder if shaugnessey (sp) will come up with a hot story about Dever's dietary habits. Just something to keep us involved and moving on.

[Nick]

Moon, our bullpen could be lights out in couple of more weeks.

 

Addison Reed to be the set up man in 8th.

Workman continues to get back to where he was in the playoffs.

Carson Smith finally ready to go on a rehab assignment if all goes well.

Joe Kelly coming back from DL at some point.

 

That's a solid group. No more wuss Barnes in the 8th inning.

 

We still have Barnes, Hembree, Boyer, and Abad.

[mvp 78]

A bullpen with no LHP? I'm still not sure why everyone is so down on Abad. LHB are pretty weak against him this year. He just needs to be used effectively.

[Nick]

A bullpen with no LHP? I'm still not sure why everyone is so down on Abad. LHB are pretty weak against him this year. He just needs to be used effectively.

 

I'm pretty sure both Carson Smith and Addison Reed can get left handers out as well as Abad.

[mvp 78]

I'm pretty sure both Carson Smith and Addison Reed can get left handers out as well as Abad.

 

Nope.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=10586&position=P&season=2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4994&position=P&season=2017

 

Abad is has a .520 OPS against LHB, Reed has .656. In 2015, Smith had a .588 OPS against LHB and he's injured right now. Abad needs to be on this team. In fact, Robby Scott should probably be on the team too (.470 OPS vs LHB).

[Nick]

Nope.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=10586&position=P&season=2017

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4994&position=P&season=2017

 

Abad is has a .520 OPS against LHB, Reed has .656. In 2015, Smith had a .588 OPS against LHB and he's injured right now. Abad needs to be on this team. In fact, Robby Scott should probably be on the team too (.470 OPS vs LHB).

 

I got a news for you. Reed will pitch the 8th inning regardless of who is coming to bat.

[mvp 78]

I got a news for you. Reed will pitch the 8th inning regardless of who is coming to bat.

 

That's fine. Abad and Scott are still better against LHB though.

 

Abad gets a lot of crap around here and by the Boston Media. He's been good this year.

[mvp 78]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/dustin_pedroia_injury_second_b.html#incart_river_index

 

Dustin Pedroia missed his third straight game on Monday and has played just 85 of 107 games this year as he manages an ailing left knee.

 

Red Sox manager John Farrell admitted that a stint on the disabled list for Pedroia is not out of the question.

 

Pedroia, who had offseason knee surgery, aggravated the knee on a collision in Baltimore with Manny Macado in April, but Farrell said the overall volume of play has Pedroia down.

 

"The problem for Dustin is and will be, he has a bad knee," Dombrowski said. "He's had it for years, he's going to have to deal with that and he does, he works very hard, the training staff works very hard on it. John works with him and tries to give him days when he needs to. That's something we're going to have to deal with for extended time periods.

[mvp 78]

Good thing they traded for Nunez! Sheesh...

[moonslav59]

Moon, our bullpen could be lights out in couple of more weeks.

 

Addison Reed to be the set up man in 8th.

Workman continues to get back to where he was in the playoffs.

Carson Smith finally ready to go on a rehab assignment if all goes well.

Joe Kelly coming back from DL at some point.

 

That's a solid group. No more wuss Barnes in the 8th inning.

 

We still have Barnes, Hembree, Boyer, and Abad.

 

I'll believe in Smith when I see him, but I do think we have the makings for a strong pen.

 

Kimbrel is the best closer this year- period.

 

Reed has to adjust to the set-up role, but of he pitches like he did with the Mets, we'll have one of the best 8th inning guys in MLB.

 

To me, the biggest gain is the fact that now we have Kelly (when he returns) and maybe Smith to pitch the 7th and help out in the 8th here and there, AND Barnes and Hembree are now very good 6th/7th inning RP'ers. Abad remains a very good LOOGY.

 

Having Workman, Scott and other available in reserve is also a very good thing/

[moonslav59]

Good thing they traded for Nunez! Sheesh...

 

He's been a God send, but we shouldn't keep expecting him to be this great the rest of the year. Hopefully Nunez and Devers have lit a fire under the other players' asses.

[a700hitter]

Moon, our bullpen could be lights out in couple of more weeks.

 

Addison Reed to be the set up man in 8th.

Workman continues to get back to where he was in the playoffs.

Carson Smith finally ready to go on a rehab assignment if all goes well.

Joe Kelly coming back from DL at some point.

 

That's a solid group. No more wuss Barnes in the 8th inning.

 

We still have Barnes, Hembree, Boyer, and Abad.

That will be a very solid group if we get all of those guys healthy.

[a700hitter]

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/07/dustin_pedroia_injury_second_b.html#incart_river_index

 

Dustin Pedroia missed his third straight game on Monday and has played just 85 of 107 games this year as he manages an ailing left knee.

 

Red Sox manager John Farrell admitted that a stint on the disabled list for Pedroia is not out of the question.

 

Pedroia, who had offseason knee surgery, aggravated the knee on a collision in Baltimore with Manny Macado in April, but Farrell said the overall volume of play has Pedroia down.

 

"The problem for Dustin is and will be, he has a bad knee," Dombrowski said. "He's had it for years, he's going to have to deal with that and he does, he works very hard, the training staff works very hard on it. John works with him and tries to give him days when he needs to. That's something we're going to have to deal with for extended time periods.

This off-season might be the time to finally trade him. It sounds like this knee is becoming a chronic condition.

[Kimmi]

I'm pretty sure both Carson Smith and Addison Reed can get left handers out as well as Abad.

 

Abad has always been a very good LOOGY.

 

His problems tend to come when he has to face righties.

[mvp 78]

Abad has always been a very good LOOGY.

 

His problems tend to come when he has to face righties.

 

That's a Farrell issue.

[a700hitter]

That's a Farrell issue.

From now on I am referring to Farrell as TOB Farrell -- Tits on Bull.