Front office Decisions

[moonslav59]

Vaz hit a double and triple last night and had a lot to do with the win.

 

You point out the general malaise in our hitting without attempting to suggest a cause or multiple causes. if people think there are causes then they can look for a remedy. When everyone is suddenly hittig worse than their career norm, and they are younger players, you have to wonder about the hitting coach and the atmosphere in the clubhouse. In addition you have to consider if some of these players should be offered big money extensions.

 

I have suggested replacing JF way back when.

 

I am not against adding a big bat 1Bman, but think the luxury tax re-set is a higher priority. Some significant bats have been traded already that would not have put us over the limit or broken the farm.

 

I'm not sure the hitting coach is at fault, but maybe a change there might help.

 

I do expect some of our players to improve their numbers by season's end with or without any changes. I think some of our players are better than what they have shown so far, and I expect them to play like they are as we finish out this season. Could I be wrong? hell, yes, but we have players who have done very well for 1.5 or more years before 2017, and their numbers are just about all down this year.

 

I get the loss of Papi argument. I get the "wish we had signed EE" argument, but we weren't lighting the world on fire when Moreland was hitting as well as EE for the first 2 months of 2017. I'm not sure there is any single element to the wide spread declines of virtually all of our batters. I'm not sure there's much we can do about it besides maybe trying to light a spark by firing JF or trading for another bat beyond Nunez.

 

My guess is, we just ride it out and hope the first 4 months of 2017 were the outlier and not 2016.

[Nick]

if they were trying to recoup some of their investment on pablow, that was almost as dumb as if i tried to recoup some of my investment on enron by buying more of it after the executives were put in handcuffs.

 

exactly!!!!!

[Nick]

The Twins have designated veteran left-hander Craig Breslow for assignment, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports

 

Another one of John Farrell's inexplicable love affair with a mediocre baseball player. Currenty he's in love with skills of Holt. Nunez is the utlimate utility player profile. Not Holt. He's a horrible outfielder by the way.

[Nick]

I have suggested replacing JF way back when.

 

I am not against adding a big bat 1Bman, but think the luxury tax re-set is a higher priority. Some significant bats have been traded already that would not have put us over the limit or broken the farm.

 

I'm not sure the hitting coach is at fault, but maybe a change there might help.

 

I do expect some of our players to improve their numbers by season's end with or without any changes. I think some of our players are better than what they have shown so far, and I expect them to play like they are as we finish out this season. Could I be wrong? hell, yes, but we have players who have done very well for 1.5 or more years before 2017, and their numbers are just about all down this year.

 

I get the loss of Papi argument. I get the "wish we had signed EE" argument, but we weren't lighting the world on fire when Moreland was hitting as well as EE for the first 2 months of 2017. I'm not sure there is any single element to the wide spread declines of virtually all of our batters. I'm not sure there's much we can do about it besides maybe trying to light a spark by firing JF or trading for another bat beyond Nunez.

 

My guess is, we just ride it out and hope the first 4 months of 2017 were the outlier and not 2016.

 

We need to stick to the financial game plan implemented last winter. Sox assessment of offense was way off. It's July 30th and we don't have Carson Smith and Thornburg, wtf?

 

We need to make a major move this winter. Luxury tax penalty rate will be reset. Change the make up of this team on the offensive side.

[a700hitter]

I have suggested replacing JF way back when.

 

I am not against adding a big bat 1Bman, but think the luxury tax re-set is a higher priority. Some significant bats have been traded already that would not have put us over the limit or broken the farm.

When it comes down to beating the Yankees in a pennant race versus staying under the luxury cap, you spend the money. Maybe living thousands of miles away from the east coast makes you more laid back about this, but I live in the belly of the beast in NY and I intensely want to beat these bastards. That is what the customers want. Beating the Yankees in a close hard fought race will bring excitement back to Fenway and Boston, and that has been lacking since 2013. Even winning The Division last season did not revive the lack of enthusiasm for this team. The franchise needs this pennant race and they need to go down fighting hard. If the Yankees add Garcia, Gray/Darvish, Robertson and Kahnle and we add only Nunez, DD will be blamed for losing to them.

 

Spend the money DD! Losing to the Yankees is not an option. You will be despised if the Yankees beat us this season. You had the better team to start the season and you are blowing it. Fix the holes and right the ship.

Edited July 30, 2017 by a700hitter

[Nick]

When it comes down to beating the Yankees in a pennant race versus staying under the luxury cap, you spend the money. Maybe living thousands of miles away from the east coast makes you more laid back about this, but I live in the belly of the beast in NY and I intensely want to beat these bastards. That is what the customers want. Beating the Yankees in a close hard fought race will bring excitement back to Fenway and Boston, and that has been lacking since 2013. Even winning The Division last season did not revive the lack of enthusiasm for this team. The franchise needs this pennant race and they need to go down fighting hard. If the Yankees add Garcia, Gray/Darvish, Robertson and Kahnle and we add only Nunez, DD will be blamed for losing to them.

 

Spend the money DD! Losing to the Yankees is not an option. You will be despised if the Yankees beat us this season. You had the better team to start the season and you are blowing it. Fix the holes and right the ship.

 

If you want a bold move, you trade Xander, Beni, Groome, Swihart and Travis for Votto. Plug in Lin at SS and Nunez in LF.

[moonslav59]

Players who have a very good season at age 21-25 sometimes continue to improve or stay about the same. Sometimes the dip a little here and there. I just don't think it is reasonable to expect every single one to regress.

 

I expected Leon to regress, but I felt it would be offset by an almost impossible idea that Vaz would not improve on his 2016 numbers(.585 OPS in 184 PAs) and those of the departed Hanigan (.468 in 113 PAs) and Holaday (.500 in 35 PAs). I expected about the same overall OPS from our catchers as 2016 (.665). I wouldn't have been surprised if we dipped a little there.

 

Bogey had a good 2016. he improved from .776 in 2015, so it looked like a steady age growth curve. A drop to below even 2015's number was not expected at age 24. Had Bogey been alone in this drop, I'd say it was not significant, but look at the rest of our players...

 

While your point is well taken about not expecting MVP like numbers year in and year out from anyone not named Trout, it also would not have been surprising to see Betts improve on his 2016 numbers either at age 23. Not many players put up numbers like he did before age 23, but expecting regression is not the norm. Betts went from .812 to .820 to .897 from 2014 to 2016 (ages 21-23). His .811 OPS this year is lower than any of his first 3 seasons. That is not normal. By itself, it is not a big decline or freakish occurrence.

 

JBJ's "regression" has been slight this year, so I wouldn't call it surprising, but again, when you look at all our players in their totality, I don't think it would be unreasonable to have expected improvement or a leveling by JBJ at age 27. He had put up a steady 1.5 years before 2017. he has not been as up and down as many think once he got past his early career struggles. (.832 in 2015 and .835 in 2016 to .790 in 2017).

 

Holt had the most PAs in LF last year and hit .705. I expected Beni to improve on our overall numbers in LF and help offset the loss of Papi, even if he didn't repeat his 2016 OPS of .835. We didn't need him to repeat .835. I expected about .775 and .756 is not far off, but it is below what at least I expected. By itself, Beni's .756 OPS is not dissapointing.

 

Pedey's .825 2016 OPS and HRam's .866 2016 OPS could have been viewed as numbers that should not have been expected to be improved upon, but again, it's not like these guys are way past prime. Many players have equal or better seasons at age 32 to 33. Pedey's .791 OPS is close enough to not think anything of it, but HRam's drop to .781 is significant. HRam has had a yo-yo career, so I am not over surprised he is having a down year, in fact I suggested we trade him while his stock was high in thinking a drop-off could be expected. Nothing too surprising with these two, but again, it seems strange everyone dropped off all at once.

 

Young's drop off seems harsh, especially when you consider he was one of MLB's top 10 or 15 hitters vs LHPs for a 3 year window prior to 2017, and now he is under .700 vs lefties.

 

Moreland's season is about as expected. Pablo was unpredictable.

 

If I had predicted that our top 7 returning players by expected 2017 PAs (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, HRam, Pedey, Beni &Young) would all decline in OPS from 2016, I don't think anyone would say that was a reasonable expectation.

 

The idea that a full season of Beni and the addition of Moreland would make-up for Papi's loss on offense was never expected by anyone. We all thought our offense would be worse. the degree of how much worse was up for debate, but nobody felt we'd score the same amount of runs in 2017 as 2016. thee idea was that those two would soften the blow to the offense just enough, and that their improvement on the defensive end plus the addition of Sale, Thornburg and C Smith would make us at the very least, slightly better than 2016 as a whole. I do not think that idea was ludicrous, and we still might end up doing better than the 2016 team did.

 

 

edited with an addition

[moonslav59]

We need to stick to the financial game plan implemented last winter. Sox assessment of offense was way off. It's July 30th and we don't have Carson Smith and Thornburg, wtf?

 

We need to make a major move this winter. Luxury tax penalty rate will be reset. Change the make up of this team on the offensive side.

 

I'm not ready to fold in on 2017, but I agree. The idea was that we can blow by the luxury tax limit in 2018 and 2019 as long as we don't reach the second penalty phase. We can make a major signing next winter to boost the clean-up slot in our order. We may even be able to sign two big names.

[moonslav59]

When it comes down to beating the Yankees in a pennant race versus staying under the luxury cap, you spend the money. Maybe living thousands of miles away from the east coast makes you more laid back about this, but I live in the belly of the beast in NY and I intensely want to beat these bastards. That is what the customers want. Beating the Yankees in a close hard fought race will bring excitement back to Fenway and Boston, and that has been lacking since 2013. Even winning The Division last season did not revive the lack of enthusiasm for this team. The franchise needs this pennant race and they need to go down fighting hard. If the Yankees add Garcia, Gray/Darvish, Robertson and Kahnle and we add only Nunez, DD will be blamed for losing to them.

 

Spend the money DD! Losing to the Yankees is not an option. You will be despised if the Yankees beat us this season. You had the better team to start the season and you are blowing it. Fix the holes and right the ship.

 

It's Henry's call not ours.

 

I love for us to blow by the luxury tax limit every year. Until I see it, even from "far away" Texas, I won't believe it.

 

I think the plan is to re-set this year and then throw money at fixing the major problems with this team- most notably the lack of power. I also think we still have a good chance at winning this year too, but 2018 to 2019 should be better.

[moonslav59]

If you want a bold move, you trade Xander, Beni, Groome, Swihart and Travis for Votto. Plug in Lin at SS and Nunez in LF.

 

Then watch Votto steadily decline and eat up cap space.

[Nick]

He DID ask for a bold move....

[Nick]

After Yankees won the division in 2012 with a record of 95-67 (Red Sox 26 games behind), they've only made to the Wildcard Game once in 2015. I will give them credit though for having a winning season the last 4 four years despite going through a rebuild situation.

 

I'm not opposed to sitting tight. All I asked was giving Devers a chance. It's obvious minor league people felt he was ready. He looks like a major league player with power. He is only 20 years old after all. His power numbers will pick up.

 

I love JBJ playing CF for us. To me, he's a perfect CF. Athletic with some leverage to hit the balls out. Superior defender.

 

Unless Xander all of the sudden has a power surge, to me he's nothing more than a medicore defensive shortstop that hits well. Nunez is getting $4.2M in his final arbitration year. Xander received $4.5M in his first of three arbitration years. Borass will take no less than $20M. He's just not worth it unless again he becomes 30 HR guy.

[notin]

After Yankees won the division in 2012 with a record of 95-67 (Red Sox 26 games behind), they've only made to the Wildcard Game once in 2015. I will give them credit though for having a winning season the last 4 four years despite going through a rebuild situation.

 

I'm not opposed to sitting tight. All I asked was giving Devers a chance. It's obvious minor league people felt he was ready. He looks like a major league player with power. He is only 20 years old after all. His power numbers will pick up.

 

I love JBJ playing CF for us. To me, he's a perfect CF. Athletic with some leverage to hit the balls out. Superior defender.

 

Unless Xander all of the sudden has a power surge, to me he's nothing more than a medicore defensive shortstop that hits well. Nunez is getting $4.2M in his final arbitration year. Xander received $4.5M in his first of three arbitration years. Borass will take no less than $20M. He's just not worth it unless again he becomes 30 HR guy.

 

Boras won't ask for $20 million for Bogaerts. Arbitration is an either/or situation. If Boras submits $20mill , he'd better be able to prove to a neutral third party Xander is worth that much, otherwise the Sox practically have a Carte Blanche to give Xander as little as possible within the guidelines.

 

Boras is more likely to ask for $7-10 mill. Something he can make a case for.

[S5Dewey]

Boras won't ask for $20 million for Bogaerts. Arbitration is an either/or situation. If Boras submits $20mill , he'd better be able to prove to a neutral third party Xander is worth that much, otherwise the Sox practically have a Carte Blanche to give Xander as little as possible within the guidelines.

 

Boras is more likely to ask for $7-10 mill. Something he can make a case for.

 

Aren't both parties making blind offers? That is, they don't know what the other is offering. If so, saying that the Sox can give Bogaerts as little as possible isn't quite true. They have to make a reasonable offer, not as little as possible under the guidelines.

[a700hitter]

It's Henry's call not ours.

 

I love for us to blow by the luxury tax limit every year. Until I see it, even from "far away" Texas, I won't believe it.

 

I think the plan is to re-set this year and then throw money at fixing the major problems with this team- most notably the lack of power. I also think we still have a good chance at winning this year too, but 2018 to 2019 should be better.

Of course, it is Henry's call, but he should wake up and realize that the Red Sox don't have close to the buzz they used to have in that town, and they have been in first place all season long. If he wants to generate interest and rating, he should get into and win a death match with the Yankees.

[a700hitter]

He DID ask for a bold move....

Bold, yes, but DD can do better than that.

[a700hitter]

Boras won't ask for $20 million for Bogaerts. Arbitration is an either/or situation. If Boras submits $20mill , he'd better be able to prove to a neutral third party Xander is worth that much, otherwise the Sox practically have a Carte Blanche to give Xander as little as possible within the guidelines.

 

Boras is more likely to ask for $7-10 mill. Something he can make a case for.

Pablow got $17.5 million/year for 5 years and you think Boras is only going to ask for $7-10 million for XB? I think you will be very disappointed.

[BstHcpr]

He DID ask for a bold move....

 

I think we should throw in Sale too

[Nick]

Boras won't ask for $20 million for Bogaerts. Arbitration is an either/or situation. If Boras submits $20mill , he'd better be able to prove to a neutral third party Xander is worth that much, otherwise the Sox practically have a Carte Blanche to give Xander as little as possible within the guidelines.

 

Boras is more likely to ask for $7-10 mill. Something he can make a case for.

 

I'm talking about when he becomes FA....sorry if I didn't make it clear. The point I was making was that from where I sit, I don't see much difference between Nunez and Xander at this point. Yet Xander is already on a higher payroll trajectory. I'm just not sure he's worth it. Maybe it's best to trade him with two years of control.

[cp176]

When it comes down to beating the Yankees in a pennant race versus staying under the luxury cap, you spend the money. Maybe living thousands of miles away from the east coast makes you more laid back about this, but I live in the belly of the beast in NY and I intensely want to beat these bastards. That is what the customers want. Beating the Yankees in a close hard fought race will bring excitement back to Fenway and Boston, and that has been lacking since 2013. Even winning The Division last season did not revive the lack of enthusiasm for this team. The franchise needs this pennant race and they need to go down fighting hard. If the Yankees add Garcia, Gray/Darvish, Robertson and Kahnle and we add only Nunez, DD will be blamed for losing to them.

 

Spend the money DD! Losing to the Yankees is not an option. You will be despised if the Yankees beat us this season. You had the better team to start the season and you are blowing it. Fix the holes and right the ship.

 

I really haven't thought of it quite like this before. Living where you live and being a devoted Sox fan - that makes you worthy. I don't want to see us lose an arms race to the Yankees either.

[Nick]

I think we should throw in Sale too

 

You're f***ing *******...put me on your ignore.

[a700hitter]

I really haven't thought of it quite like this before. Living where you live and being a devoted Sox fan - that makes you worthy. I don't want to see us lose an arms race to the Yankees either.

Living in MA and losing to the Yankees sucks, but misery loves company. Losing to the Yankees and living in NY is just torture.

[moonslav59]

Pablow got $17.5 million/year for 5 years and you think Boras is only going to ask for $7-10 million for XB? I think you will be very disappointed.

 

Pablo got $19M x 5.

 

I think the Bogey numbers mentioned are for his arb number- not his FA number.

[a700hitter]

Pablo got $19M x 5.

 

I think the Bogey numbers mentioned are for his arb number- not his FA number.

I still don't see Boras aiming that low.

[moonslav59]

I still don't see Boras aiming that low.

 

They look at the formula, and with Bogey's decline this year from 2016, Boras will ask for what he thinks he might get from the arb hearing. The Sox will look at the formula and come up with their number. My guess is both will fall in the $7-11M range.

 

(Note: I'm no expert on arbs, but I came pretty close last year.)

[Bellhorn04]

I trust there's no further confusion between what Bogey will get in arb next year and what Boras would want to sign him long term.

[Larry Cook]

I would love to see dave make a move for a clubhouse leader and on field producer like votto in the offseason, since I doubt Cincy moves him by tomorrow.

 

I could see this guy providing some power, decent average and ops and providing tremendous leadership in the clubhouse.

 

We get him to wake up the zombies that dominate our line up and help us get back to 5.5 runs per game.

 

But because he is desperate/planless dave, we'll probably over pay for another reliever with arm issues.

[a700hitter]

I trust there's no further confusion between what Bogey will get in arb next year and what Boras would want to sign him long term.

LOL! None. And for the record, I really don't care about the price tags in Arbitration, because we are keeping our player.

[oldtimer]

I would love to see dave make a move for a clubhouse leader and on field producer like votto in the offseason, since I doubt Cincy moves him by tomorrow.

 

I could see this guy providing some power, decent average and ops and providing tremendous leadership in the clubhouse.

 

We get him to wake up the zombies that dominate our line up and help us get back to 5.5 runs per game.

 

But because he is desperate/planless dave, we'll probably over pay for another reliever with arm issues.

 

DDs making noises like he won't do anything more before the trade deadline. It may be smoke but here it is 7/30 and no more action than Nunez, who by the way has worked out better than Fraier

[moonslav59]

At least Votto has shown no signs of decline or instability like HRam and Pablo did before their signings. Other than 2014, Votto has been between .947 and 1.021 every year since 2009 (8 of 9 seasons).

 

He does turn 34 this September, so the future decline concern should be real. He will turn 40 his final year of his contract (2023). He also has a $7M buyout for 2024 (age 40-41) or a $20M option. His 6 to 7 year remaining deal seems like it's too long for a post-prime player, and we'd have to hope he doesn't turn into an Albert Pujols, but I think he's worth making a serious offer for. I'm not sure what it would take, so I'll hold off saying he'd be worth getting.