A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit. Moon

We can survive without Kelly and Ross. Bullpen is an easy fix. We're turning 80% of minor league starters into relievers. Smith and Thornburg eventually will get healthy. I also like to think that by 2020 someone other than Groome will come to surface from current crop of college pitchers in our system.

 

I agree with you on HanRam.

 

Stats don't always lie....platooning is not a bad idea except for JBJ. We need his D in CF and he hitting lefthanders well.

 

It's a long season. A guy like Moreland needs to sit from time to time just to keep fresh.

 

Thornburg is a FA after 2019, so I'm not sure counting on him for much is worthwhile.

 

I do think our pen should be fine as we keep turning starters into RP'ers on the farm. I'd like to keep Kelly, but he may have to go. Ross likewise.

 

I just do not see counting on a starter to emerge from the Sox system by 2020. It is wishful thinking. Groome represents the best hope right now, but I'm not sure anyone else will be ML ready by then.

 

Here's a list of all our top pitching prospects as ranked by soxprospects.com:

2) Groome (18 years old)

5) Houck (21 just out of college)

6) Mata (18)

10) Beeks (23)

11) Lakins (23)

12) Johnson (26)

15) Scherff (19)

16) Anderson (22)

17) Shawaryn (22)

18) Hernandez (20)

19) Callahan (22)

20) Raudes (19)

 

While I think there are several promising prospects here, many are too far away to hope for help in 2020. We've had better looking pitching prospects in the past and got very little from those classes.

 

I'm more hopeful than optimistic.

[Fisk]

It can also be looked at that we have only 4 1/2 game lead despite that the Yankees are in a 2-3 week tailspin.

 

Yes they are in a tailspin but might be playing more to there level. Pitching is a big problem for them.

[a700hitter]

Yes they are in a tailspin but might be playing more to there level. Pitching is a big problem for them.

They were definitely playing far above their heads before this recent tailspin, but if they are buyers at the deadline they might be able to mount a challenge. If they don't add some starting pitching, they are toast.

[Fisk]

They were definitely playing far above their heads before this recent tailspin, but if they are buyers at the deadline they might be able to mount a challenge. If they don't add some starting pitching, they are toast.

 

Not sure they are going to be willing to trade any top prospects for pitching right now. They are definitely building for the future.

[moonslav59]

It's also unrealistic to think all those players will still be in Boston in 2020. Trades happen, especially on teams run by Dave Dombrowski.

 

You are right, but at this point in time, it seems that we'd like to try to keep our core together beyond their FA dates. Paying 5-7 guys $25M plus is probably never going to happen, and if it did, I'd hate to see what the other 18-20 guys on the roster look like.

 

Chances are we don't keep everyone, but here's who I would like to see stay around a bit longer, accepting that things can change between now and their paydays:

 

(Price is probably a given to be here for 5 more years)

 

1) Betts

2) Sale

3) JBJ

4) ERod

5) Bogey

 

(Note: Beni is here for 4-5 more years anyways. Pedey is here until 2021, unless traded, but his AVV is just $13.5M.)

 

I seriously doubt we can keep all these players at this money:

$33M Sale

$31M Price

$31M Betts

$25M Bogey

$22M JBJ

$14.5M ERod

$13.5M Pedey

 

That's $170M for just 7 players with Beni nearing his last arb years.

 

This does not include any FA signings or extensions needed to replace Porcello, Kimbrell, Pomeranz, HRam or others. Keeping Kimbrel and Pom might put us near $200M for just 9 players.

[Nick]

Bullpen...FA year

 

Kimbrel 2019

Kelly 2019

Thornburg 2020

Smith 2021

Barnes 2022

Hembree 2022

Scott 2023

 

Starters

 

Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year, 4 yr $80M should do it)

C Sale 2020

Porcello 2020

Wright 2021

Ed Rod 2022

D Price 2023

 

Xander 2020

Betts 2021

JBJ 2021

Leon 2021

Vazquez 2021

Pedroia 2022

Beni 2023

Travis 2024

Devers 2024 at the earliest

 

Keep in mind that there will be a new CBA for 2022, Conceivably 2021 maybe the rough year from luxury tax penalties.

 

Basically we'll have the same team for 3 years with extension of Pom and Kimbrel. It's 4 years with Xander extension or we may be okay without him. I'm assuming we sign Sale. I still say we're in good shape.

 

You can't ask for much more than a 4 year window in today's climate.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

In regards to impending 'cliff'... Assuming Devers takes over at 3B in 2018.

 

Yankees 29 seasons under contract for 9 position players.

 

Red Sox 36 seasons under contract for 9 position players. If Moreland is replaced by Travis, number jumps to 41 seasons.

 

The point I'm making is we're not in any worse shape than the Yankees. Our window of opportunity is just as big as the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

I'm usually the last to cite recent small sample sizes, but am I the only guy here wondering why Moreland is still batting clean-up?

 

I get how he carried us for a couple months, but he's playing hurt, he's slumping, and we have other hitter that have been hotter. Even without opening up the "move Betts to clean-up" argument, I'd rather see JBJ or HRam up 4th, maybe even Beni vs RHPs or Young vs LHPs would even be a better choice.

[moonslav59]

I'm usually the last to cite recent small sample sizes, but am I the only guy here wondering why Moreland is still batting clean-up?

 

I get how he carried us for a couple months, but he's playing hurt, he's slumping, and we have other hitter that have been hotter. Even without opening up the "move Betts to clean-up" argument, I'd rather see JBJ or HRam up 4th, maybe even Beni vs RHPs or Young vs LHPs would even be a better choice.

 

Never mind.

[oldtimer]

Another game in the books and we had 3 hits in this one. Cobb was throwing first pitch strikes consistently but our strategy continues to be to take them. It cost Porcello a very good pitching performance.

Bogaerts drew a walk, MOreland doubled, Hanley looked awful, they walked Beni to load the bases and Young popped up. I wonder why JBJ wasn't called on in the 9th to bat for Young. It seemed to be the natural thing to do. I guess JF had his reasons.

 

 

Hanley to me remains an enigma. One game he comes up big. Today he took very hittable first pitches only to swing at ones totally off the plate. In the 9th with the bases loaded and one out, we needed a disciplied hitter to put the ball into the outfield. Instead, Hanley looked very bad.

 

Good to see Bogaerts back. Maybe JF can come up with something for the final game.

[moonslav59]

s*** happens.

 

Players look good one day and bad the next. It's a 162 game season.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart is on the shelf at Triple-A Pawtucket with inflammation in his left ankle, on which he underwent surgery last August. His current troubles aren’t in the exact spot, per the Providence Journal’s Brian MacPherson, though he suggests that Swihart’s problems are likely related to last year’s injury and surgery. Swihart suffered the injury while playing left field for Boston last June. He’s back behind the plate on a full-time basis this year, but all of his work has come in the minors and he has only hit .213/.265/.327 across 163 plate appearances.

[moonslav59]

Tonight on the farm...

 

Pablito goes 2 for 4.

 

Olmos goes to 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA.

 

Chavis 0 for 4.

 

Bryan Mata 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER

[veryoldtimer]

Well, the Sox noffense (with apologies to whoever coined that word a few years ago) showed up again last night for Porcello.

What I really want to talk about is something I haven't seen anybody mention.

It's the bats, not the balls, that are juiced.

Awhile ago the bats were shattering all the time, with spears flying all over the place.

Not so much now.

In golf, the pros, with very fast swing speeds, use extremely "stiff" shafts to hit the ball a looong way.

Us seniors with slow swing speeds have to go to a "whippier" shaft.

So, have they found a way to make the bats stiffer for all these harder swinging guys?

Is that why the balls are going farther this year?

MLB insists the balls haven't changed, and as I understand it they supervise the manufacture of the balls.

Are the bats subject to the same type of supervision?

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

I suppose I could look it up somehow, but I suspect there'll be posters here that already know.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's not the bats, it's the approach. When I was coming through, you learned how to hit to the count. You get 2 strikes, you shorten up and make contact. Nowadays, 2 strikes is treated the same as no stikes, just grip it and rip it. We are seeing more homers, but also a massive amount of K's. The all or nothing approach

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the Sox noffense (with apologies to whoever coined that word a few years ago) showed up again last night for Porcello.

What I really want to talk about is something I haven't seen anybody mention.

It's the bats, not the balls, that are juiced.

Awhile ago the bats were shattering all the time, with spears flying all over the place.

Not so much now.

In golf, the pros, with very fast swing speeds, use extremely "stiff" shafts to hit the ball a looong way.

Us seniors with slow swing speeds have to go to a "whippier" shaft.

So, have they found a way to make the bats stiffer for all these harder swinging guys?

Is that why the balls are going farther this year?

MLB insists the balls haven't changed, and as I understand it they supervise the manufacture of the balls.

Are the bats subject to the same type of supervision?

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

I suppose I could look it up somehow, but I suspect there'll be posters here that already know.

 

Interesting. I don't have the answer, but I think something is definitely going on with the balls, or now that you mention it the bats.

[S5Dewey]

That's a very interesting thought. I remember that when bats were breaking at a record pace there was a lot of talk about them being made of maple, with a shorter fiber length than the traditional ash bats. IDK if fewer players are using maple bats now but it doesn't seem like there are as many broken bats as in the past.

 

Of course going to a shorter fiber length would increase the hardness of the bat, but at the same time it would decrease the 'whip' in the bat and possibly even the compressability of the bat at the contact point with the ball.

 

I'm not sold on the idea of the change in bats being a part of the issue, but I wouldn't rule it out ether.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not the bats, it's the approach. When I was coming through, you learned how to hit to the count. You get 2 strikes, you shorten up and make contact. Nowadays, 2 strikes is treated the same as no stikes, just grip it and rip it. We are seeing more homers, but also a massive amount of K's. The all or nothing approach

 

That's possible. What I'd like to see is some data comparing the average distance of home runs this year to previous years. We seem to be hearing about a lot more 400 foot and 450 foot shots lately. There's a site called Home Run Tracker that lists all the home runs each year, I may have to check that out.

[moonslav59]

Not many tape-measure jobs by the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Let the talk of trade options begin.

 

DD says he's not looking for a SP'er.

 

3B is a possible target for a rental.

 

Boosting the pen is always an option for contenders at the deadline.

[oldtimer]

Let the talk of trade options begin.

 

DD says he's not looking for a SP'er.

 

3B is a possible target for a rental.

 

Boosting the pen is always an option for contenders at the deadline.

 

I don't put too much store in what DD says publicly. No GM is likely to show his hand and weaken his position. We all know we could use a 3rd baseman, whether it is Devers or a rental will depend on what DD is offered. Lin continues to show value at least as a utility player. In future, he may be a candidate to hit leadoff. We will need to wait and see if this short ML period for him is an abberation or a hit of things to come. He did have 3 hits today at a time when Bogie, Beni and Moreland had none. I sincerely hope we don't trade him away.

[moonslav59]

I doubt Lin gets traded. He's not the guy other GMs are scouting.

 

You're right about GMs not tipping their hands, but I doubt we go after even a journeyman starter, unless DD knows ERod's injury is too iffy to chance it. He can always wait for a waiver deal for that, if needed.

 

I think we look at a cheap upgrade for 3B, and if it's not there, we'll go with Lin/Marrero, at least until Devers joins us in September.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Interested In Martin Prado-David Phelps Package

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/red-sox-interested-in-martin-prado-david-phelps-package.html

 

Phelps is a30 year old RH'd RP'er.

 

He has a 1.256 WHIP in 43 IP this year.

 

He has a 9.6 K/9 rate. He was better last year with a 1.142 WHIP and an 11.8 K/9 rate in 87 IP.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Interested In Martin Prado-David Phelps Package

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/red-sox-interested-in-martin-prado-david-phelps-package.html

 

Phelps is a 30 year old RH'd RP'er.

 

He has a 1.256 WHIP in 43 IP this year.

 

He has a 9.6 K/9 rate. He was better last year with a 1.142 WHIP and an 11.8 K/9 rate in 87 IP.

 

I wonder what they'd want for both? I'm sure they'd want more, if they pay part of Prado/Phelps' deals.

 

Contracts:

 

Prado:

3 years/$40M (2017-19) AVV= $13.33M (Cost this year at deadline ~$4.5M

17:$11.5M, 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M

 

Phelps:

1 year/$4.6M , AVV= $4.6M (Cost at deadline ~$1.6M

+ 1 more arb year

 

Total AVV cost towards luxury tax this year would be about $6M. I think we could squeeze under the tax and reset the tax with this deal, but if we need Miami to pay a little to get us under, that should be doable.

 

Would Miami take Chavis, Lakins, Beeks and Ockimey?

 

Would you give all that? At least both are not one-year rentals, but with Devers projected to join the team in 2018, and Holt maybe ready for a comeback, we may not want/need Prado next year. Prado does provide 4th OF'er coverage as Young goes to free agency next year, though.

Edited July 10, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

On the farm...

 

ERod 6 IP 6 H 1 ER 0 BB 7 K

 

Pablo 0 for 4- show him the door.

 

Chavis his a two-run HR (his 4th in AA).

 

Devers went 1 for 4 in the Futures game. (Note: Moncada went 0-2/Dubon 1-3.)

 

Owens went 5 IP 2 H 0 ER but 5 BBs!

[oldtimer]

On the farm...

 

ERod 6 IP 6 H 1 ER 0 BB 7 K

 

Pablo 0 for 4- show him the door.

 

Chavis his a two-run HR (his 4th in AA).

 

Devers went 1 for 4 in the Futures game. (Note: Moncada went 0-2/Dubon 1-3.)

 

Owens went 5 IP 2 H 0 ER but 5 BBs!

 

The futures game was staffed by the best young pitching talent in the leaague, with a lot of flame throwers including Kopech. The hitters at got to see each pitcher once, so it must have been hard to adapt. I watched Devers at bats. He got a single on a softly hit drive to right field on the first pitch on his first at bat. He looked overpowered on two more and hit a line drive to first base on another. I wouldn't draw too much of a conslusion from those results. I can believe he might not be aa answer coming up and playing third base right now. Either Lin or a rental might be the better solution until the later season roster expansion.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox Interested In Martin Prado-David Phelps Package

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/red-sox-interested-in-martin-prado-david-phelps-package.html

 

Phelps is a30 year old RH'd RP'er.

 

He has a 1.256 WHIP in 43 IP this year.

 

He has a 9.6 K/9 rate. He was better last year with a 1.142 WHIP and an 11.8 K/9 rate in 87 IP.

 

This makes sense, getting a RP in the deal...I thought they might do something like this. This deal could happen.

[Larry Cook]

This makes sense, getting a RP in the deal...I thought they might do something like this. This deal could happen.

 

When it comes to trading for Right Handed Relievers Dave's record with the Sox is less than stellar.

 

Yes, we had hits ie: Ziegler, but the misses have been huge. (Thornburg and Smith come to mind)

 

Plus Dave tends to overpay for relievers.

 

Maybe Dave should sit out this trade deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

When it comes to trading for Right Handed Relievers Dave's record with the Sox is less than stellar.

 

Yes, we had hits ie: Ziegler, but the misses have been huge. (Thornburg and Smith come to mind)

 

Plus Dave tends to overpay for relievers.

 

Maybe Dave should sit out this trade deadline.

 

One could argue that his misses were because of unforeseeable injuries, although trust me, I'm not too happy about neither of those guys ever throwing a pitch for us.

[Nick]

Starting Pitching is just fine, unless you empty out the farm completely and go after top of the line pitcher. Obviously that ain't happening. Middle of the road starting pitching does Sox no good. Assuming E Rod comes back healthy, we should be in great shape the rest of the year. We have as much quality as anyone in the league 1-5. We also have Fiester, Johnson, etc as a back up.

 

Relief Pitching....I'm just not a big fan of Barnes. He comes in last night and promptly walks the first batter on 4 pitches. What the HELL? Didn't he warm up properly in the pen? His pitches were not even close. To me, he does not pitch with a sense of urgency. I just don't like the way he looks on the mound. Yeah, it's personal. Where in the hell are we with Carson Smith? Is he coming back this year? I just don't understand the injury situation with our club. It just seems so unpredicable.

 

3B....my message is you try EVERYTHING before relinquishing prospects for a rental. DEVERS. What the f*** are we afraid of? Even in a small sample size, Lin has performed well for us. HE'S f***ING PLAYING BETTER IN MLB THAN HE WAS AT AA. It's a crapshoot. Are you telling me that NONE of you ever had someone come out of nowhere in your lifetime and exceeded your expectations? Do you think anyone in Yankee organization expected 30 FREAKING home runs from a rookie?

 

You just need a guy at 3B playing good defense. I can't imagine Devers being any worse than Lin/Marrero. He might surprise us all. But you know what? You can't win the powerball if you don't buy a ticket.