A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Kimmi]

2 1/2 years is a pretty long look. This guy has pissed away chance after chance after chance. At some point anyone with a brain just recognizes the pattern and moves on.

 

He worked hard this past offseason and came into camp in very good shape. He deserves a fair chance this season, sort of a new lease on his baseball life. The small sample that he had before the injury this year and the small sample since the injury is not a fair chance.

[Jasonbay44]

I think people need to stop hating on Pablo. People are acting like he's the worst player in baseball, but lets be real, he's only been the 6th worst player in baseball (according to WAR)!

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/WARBR/order/false

[Kimmi]

With all due respect....

 

When has Theo ever dealt away several stars for prospects?

 

What handbook are you talking about?

 

I'm talking about the importance of building a farm handbook.

 

And yes, I know that Theo is not the first one to have this philosophy.

[Kimmi]

I would like to see Betts pull more and Hanley to pull less. Betts has been hitting a lot of shots straight away but hasn't the power to get most balls out. Hanley does, but is not hitting like I would have expected. Who would have thought that Beni would be leading the team in HRs at this juncture?

 

Hanley definitely needs to become less pull happy. And of course after I posted that, he launches one over the monster. As far as Betts is concerned, I don't like to see any batter trying to pull pitches when he should be trying to go the other way. That usually tends not to work. He has to hit the ball where he is pitched.

[moonslav59]

I hope not.

 

I trust Sox management to know better than I, but I agree I like Devers as the next in line over Dominguez.

 

I might even like him in line above some on the 25 man roster right now.

[moonslav59]

Meh. What I'm seeing is a guy with control issues. Good repertoire, good fastball speed, but can't seem to place the ball where it will do the most good. Last night his strike percentage was 72%, which is excellent. But what I'm talking about is putting the ball where it can be hit, but not solidly. Last night I didn't see, for example, a lot of pitches low in the strike zone.

 

Agreed, but a 3.78 ERA is more than a "meh" better than 4.58.

 

I'm hoping Porcello turns it up a notch to end the season.

[moonslav59]

I'm talking about the importance of building a farm handbook.

 

And yes, I know that Theo is not the first one to have this philosophy.

 

True, but I don't think Cashman is not known for building a farm. He traded for one, and only then, just recently.

 

He has had some good farm products over the years. I'm not saying he was bad at farm building, but he traded away some of it, until his very recent re-build mode philosophy.

 

Theo had some very good early draft picks and some good international selections. He rarely traded for top prospects. The two biggest Sox purges (the Dodger contract purge and the 2014 pitching staff purge) both happened after Theo left.

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports....

 

In what has unfortunately become a familiar refrain for Red Sox fans, right-hander Tyler Thornburg has suffered yet another setback in his recovery from a still-undetermined shoulder injury, writes Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. Thornburg had been long-tossing from 120 feet, but he’s now been shut down from that activity. Surgery has still not been recommended for Thornburg, manager John Farrell tells Britton.

 

Fellow righty Carson Smith is targeting a rehab assignment this weekend, per Farrell, though a scheduled simulated game was pushed back from Tuesday to Wednesday. And, as Britton points out, the new CBA extends the rehab window for players coming back from Tommy John surgery from 30 days to 60 days, so Smith could have a lengthier rehab than most.

[cp176]

He worked hard this past offseason and came into camp in very good shape. He deserves a fair chance this season, sort of a new lease on his baseball life. The small sample that he had before the injury this year and the small sample since the injury is not a fair chance.

 

I'm guessing that you mean very good shape for him. He certainly appeared to make some gains but his fitness level has been one of the primary reasons for his inability to play third base for us or for anyone. Even with that though, I still wish that they would just stick him out there and leave him alone for a couple of weeks. Either he gets it done or he doesn't, then you make the decision. I do not think that that this jerk jerk method of playing anyone works.

[oldtimer]

Hanley definitely needs to become less pull happy. And of course after I posted that, he launches one over the monster. As far as Betts is concerned, I don't like to see any batter trying to pull pitches when he should be trying to go the other way. That usually tends not to work. He has to hit the ball where he is pitched.

ble of.

What Betts is currently doing is well below what he is capable of. Hard to know why when he goes 0-6 last night for instance, but I note that he hits a lot of ball hard but into center field, where they are caught. I have faith in him and expect he will work things out and contribute more in the near future.

[Meh]

I think the Sox go after Lowrie for 3B. Something like Vazquez, Chavis, and D. Hernandez. Maybe even expanding it for Gray and Lowrie for Devers, Vazquez, Travis, and Johnson.

[OH FOY]

Wow! I'm not doing that. Me. I'm going cheap, look for a guy who might get hot even for 1 Month. If not move him look for another. Your not 5+ games out of Wildcard. Relax. Edited June 14, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Emp9]

ble of.

What Betts is currently doing is well below what he is capable of. Hard to know why when he goes 0-6 last night for instance, but I note that he hits a lot of ball hard but into center field, where they are caught. I have faith in him and expect he will work things out and contribute more in the near future.

 

Betts followed a 4-5 game with an 0-6 because they stayed away from hm and gave him barley anything to hit. He HAS to try and pull the ball if they constantly pitch him outside or it's just a foul ball. He's trying to make lemonade out there with what they give him after he destroys them the game before. Last 7 games Betts is batting .310 w/ a .911 OPS. In other words, he's fine.

[Emp9]

Wow! I'm not doing that. Me. I'm going cheap, look for a guy who might get hot even for 1 Month. If not move him look for another. Your not 5+ games out of Wildcard. Relax.

 

Yah, I'm not doing that either. lol

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed, but a 3.78 ERA is more than a "meh" better than 4.58.

 

I'm hoping Porcello turns it up a notch to end the season.

 

Funny thing is, nothing in my post about Porcello would refute your basic point--that he can and maybe will get better this season. The sooner the better.

[S5Dewey]

Wow! I'm not doing that. Me. I'm going cheap, look for a guy who might get hot even for 1 Month. If not move him look for another. Your not 5+ games out of Wildcard. Relax.

 

I see three options. One is to go cheap, move Devers to the parent club ASAP and hope for the best. #2 is to hedge the bets and try to get someone better than we have at 3B but relatively cheaply and wait another year (+?) while we wait for Devers to mature. Or #3 is to 'go whole hog'. - Trade Devers and some lesser position players for a 3B who will be with the team into the future.

 

I'm not sure which of those I'd take. They each have something to be said for and against them.

 

And of course there's always the 4th option of sitting where we are. After all, this team is playing at nearly a .700 clip for the past 20+ games.

 

I dunno. That's why I'm sitting here and not in DD's chair I guess.

[mvp 78]

I think the Sox go after Lowrie for 3B. Something like Vazquez, Chavis, and D. Hernandez. Maybe even expanding it for Gray and Lowrie for Devers, Vazquez, Travis, and Johnson.

 

Not a chance. I don't see the point in that trade. That would arguably make the team worse.

[moonslav59]

Funny thing is, nothing in my post about Porcello would refute your basic point--that he can and maybe will get better this season. The sooner the better.

 

Sorry for misinterpreting your "meh" to mean you didn't see what I consider a major career trend of having a much better second half.

[moonslav59]

I see three options. One is to go cheap, move Devers to the parent club ASAP and hope for the best. #2 is to hedge the bets and try to get someone better than we have at 3B but relatively cheaply and wait another year (+?) while we wait for Devers to mature. Or #3 is to 'go whole hog'. - Trade Devers and some lesser position players for a 3B who will be with the team into the future.

 

I'm not sure which of those I'd take. They each have something to be said for and against them.

 

And of course there's always the 4th option of sitting where we are. After all, this team is playing at nearly a .700 clip for the past 20+ games.

 

I dunno. That's why I'm sitting here and not in DD's chair I guess.

 

I would seriously try to avoid trading Devers, Groome or Travis at all, especially for a 2 month rental.

 

I am not sure Devers is an option at this point, but I'm leaning towards giving him a chance sooner (within a month or so) rather than later (September call-up/2018?)

 

I'd still think Pablo gets another significant chance to show something or be DFA'd.

[mvp 78]

The impetus behind last year's deal was "it's Ortiz' last shot." I don't really see a reason to make a deal this year unless you are bringing in a guy cheaply or for a long term need.

[moonslav59]

The impetus behind last year's deal was "it's Ortiz' last shot." I don't really see a reason to make a deal this year unless you are bringing in a guy cheaply or for a long term need.

 

I think we may go for something not too costly: maybe Frazier or Plouffe, assuming Sox management will not call up Devers by August 1st.

[S5Dewey]

I would seriously try to avoid trading Devers, Groome or Travis at all, especially for a 2 month rental.

 

I am not sure Devers is an option at this point, but I'm leaning towards giving him a chance sooner (within a month or so) rather than later (September call-up/2018?)

 

I'd still think Pablo gets another significant chance to show something or be DFA'd.

 

My point in mentioning trading Devers was that if we trade for a longer term 3B option we don't have a place for him while a rebuilding team with a decent 3B may want Devers as a part of the rebuilding process. Win/win.

 

I'd like to see Sandoval get another chance even though I don't see him ever being worth more than 1/2 of his contract, but there's a catch to it. I know this is another thing I keep harping on, but with playoff spots often decided by one or two games every single loss lessens the chances of making the playoffs. So how many losses are we willing to sustain due to his poor fielding before we give up on him?

[Nick]

I think we may go for something not too costly: maybe Frazier or Plouffe, assuming Sox management will not call up Devers by August 1st.

 

I agree on not trading Devers.

 

We are so close to having long term, CHEAP, solution at both 1B and 3B. It would be fiscally irresponsible to trade away Devers at this point. And we are in this position because of Pablo/Handley signings.

[moonslav59]

My point in mentioning trading Devers was that if we trade for a longer term 3B option we don't have a place for him while a rebuilding team with a decent 3B may want Devers as a part of the rebuilding process. Win/win.

 

I'd like to see Sandoval get another chance even though I don't see him ever being worth more than 1/2 of his contract, but there's a catch to it. I know this is another thing I keep harping on, but with playoff spots often decided by one or two games every single loss lessens the chances of making the playoffs. So how many losses are we willing to sustain due to his poor fielding before we give up on him?

 

Agreed on both points.

 

I will say that Pablo could possibly become a very expensive platoon DH next year, assuming Moreland bolts for a bigger contract and HRam can play some 1B next year.

 

Pablo's defense may not need to be a consideration after this year.

 

I do think Devers may end up being an option at 1B longterm, but Travis might have something to do with that consideration.

 

I've never been a big Pablo fan, but before I cut that kind of contract loose, I want to be sure we have a better option in place, and that he is truly toast.

 

He got himself in pretty good shape over the winter. His defense looks awful despite that feat, but maybe he needs a little more adjustment time. I'm not confident his defense will ever get close to acceptable, so I think the only longterm place for him on this team is as a DH vs RHPs. $19M a year for that is sick, but it may be better than paying him to play for someone else and needing to find a DH for cheap..

[moonslav59]

I agree on not trading Devers.

 

We are so close to having long term, CHEAP, solution at both 1B and 3B. It would be fiscally irresponsible to trade away Devers at this point. And we are in this position because of Pablo/Handley signings.

 

We could see this next year, assuming (big assumption here) that Pablo shows some life with the bat over the rest of this season:

 

1B:

450 PAs HRam (vs mostly RHPs)

300 PAs Travis (vs all LHPs and some RHPs)

 

DH:

450 PAs Pablo (vs almost all RHPs)

200 PAs HRam (vs almost all LHPs)

 

3B:

600 PAs Devers

100 PAs Pablo/Marco/Holt/Rutledge/Marrero

 

650 PAs from HRam is probably too much to expect, so Travis could take up what HRam can't give us.

 

If Pablo is gone, we might have to pick up a cheap corner IF'er or corner IF/OF FA over the winter or try to get by with this...

 

1B:

550 PAs Travis

150 PAs HRam (NL parks and a few other games)

 

DH:

500 PAs HRam

200 PAs others (Swihart/Devers/FA?)

 

3B:

550 PAs Devers

150 PAs others

 

[cp176]

Agreed on both points.

 

I will say that Pablo could possibly become a very expensive platoon DH next year, assuming Moreland bolts for a bigger contract and HRam can play some 1B next year.

 

Pablo's defense may not need to be a consideration after this year.

 

I do think Devers may end up being an option at 1B longterm, but Travis might have something to do with that consideration.

 

I've never been a big Pablo fan, but before I cut that kind of contract loose, I want to be sure we have a better option in place, and that he is truly toast.

 

He got himself in pretty good shape over the winter. His defense looks awful despite that feat, but maybe he needs a little more adjustment time. I'm not confident his defense will ever get close to acceptable, so I think the only longterm place for him on this team is as a DH vs RHPs. $19M a year for that is sick, but it may be better than paying him to play for someone else and needing to find a DH for cheap..

 

He really has never been in particularly good shape. Good shape for him maybe but lets be real about physical fitness. He is likely to never be the face on the poster. He is very close to being gone. Unless I have misinterpreted something, Farrell has said that he will not play when we face a lefty on the mound and he is likely not to play when we have a lefty going for us. it would compound his poor work defensively. Let me see - Sale, Price, Pomeranz, E-Rod, Johnson (all lefties). He might be playing third base one day per week if he is lucky. He is taking up a roster spot for no real good reason. Only the money. He will be gone very soon one way or another.

[moonslav59]

He really has never been in particularly good shape. Good shape for him maybe but lets be real about physical fitness. He is likely to never be the face on the poster. He is very close to being gone. Unless I have misinterpreted something, Farrell has said that he will not play when we face a lefty on the mound and he is likely not to play when we have a lefty going for us. it would compound his poor work defensively. Let me see - Sale, Price, Pomeranz, E-Rod, Johnson (all lefties). He might be playing third base one day per week if he is lucky. He is taking up a roster spot for no real good reason. Only the money. He will be gone very soon one way or another.

 

It looks that way...

 

...unless he starts hitting immediately, and I mean for longer than getting on base in 2 of his last 3 PAs.

[Kimmi]

I'm guessing that you mean very good shape for him. He certainly appeared to make some gains but his fitness level has been one of the primary reasons for his inability to play third base for us or for anyone. Even with that though, I still wish that they would just stick him out there and leave him alone for a couple of weeks. Either he gets it done or he doesn't, then you make the decision. I do not think that that this jerk jerk method of playing anyone works.

 

That's all I'm saying. He needs to be given the chance to play regularly for at least a couple of weeks. I'd give him more time than that. If he's not getting it done at that time, then bench or DFA him. It is doing the team no good to put him in for a game and have him sit for 3.

[Kimmi]

ble of.

What Betts is currently doing is well below what he is capable of. Hard to know why when he goes 0-6 last night for instance, but I note that he hits a lot of ball hard but into center field, where they are caught. I have faith in him and expect he will work things out and contribute more in the near future.

 

I do not disagree with any of this. I have confidence in Mookie to know what he has to do.

[Kimmi]

The impetus behind last year's deal was "it's Ortiz' last shot." I don't really see a reason to make a deal this year unless you are bringing in a guy cheaply or for a long term need.

 

Perhaps not this year if the FO doesn't think the team has what it takes, but there is an impetus to win a title within the 3 year window, IMO. If the FO thinks that the team is one piece away, Dombrowski will pull the trigger.