2017 Rotation Discussion

[S5Dewey]

Walking away from a healthy contract for less money? Who has done that?

 

There's another issue with this too, and it's their union. I don't know how/if they can prevent a player signing for less money than his current contract allows but I'm very confident that they "very strongly discourage" it.

[a700hitter]

There's another issue with this too, and it's their union. I don't know how/if they can prevent a player signing for less money than his current contract allows but I'm very confident that they "very strongly discourage" it.

I don't think the union can prevent a player from opting out of a lucrative contract, but good sense would prevent him from doing so. I am sure that the Red Sox would have released Carl Crawford from his contract if he had asked, but that would be an unfathomable level of stupid for him to ask for that.

[jacksonianmarch]

The union will only disallow players from negotiating a lower contract than what is already guaranteed. If a player uses an opt out and ends up with less money, then they gambled and lost

[S5Dewey]

The union will only disallow players from negotiating a lower contract than what is already guaranteed. If a player uses an opt out and ends up with less money, then they gambled and lost

 

Didn't that ARod fiasco consist of ARod getting the same amount of money to come to the Sox, only over a longer time? Or is it the AAV that the Union objects to?

[sk7326]

Didn't that ARod fiasco consist of ARod getting the same amount of money to come to the Sox, only over a longer time? Or is it the AAV that the Union objects to?

 

AAV which is really the only way they can make apples to apples comparisons across all sorts of contract structures

[moonslav59]

Not really related to this discussion, but remember when VTek turned down that deal then ended up with a fraction of the original offer?

 

Also, Nomar turned down a big deal, got hurt (playing soccer???) and ended up with much less.

[Nick]

Wade Miley turned in a disastrous performance in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon, allowing seven runs and nine baserunners while recording five outs.

 

After a strong beginning to the season, Miley is 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA. He had a 2.32 ERA in five April starts, a 3.97 ERA in five May starts, a 7.48 ERA in six June starts and now a 37.80 ERA after his first July start.

 

Since he was acquired last July in a trade with the Seattle Mariners, Miley is 5-12 with a 5.58 ERA in 28 games for the Orioles. Adding together last year’s two-month salary, this season’s and an option buyout – assuming the Orioles don’t pick up his $12 million option for 2018 – the Orioles will have spent $11-plus million on Miley if he parts ways with the team at year’s end.

 

Meanwhile, the man the Orioles traded for Miley, lefty Ariel Miranda, is 7-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 17 games for the Mariners, is making $541,000 in 2017 and can’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season.

 

This is why you don't pay out $10+M for pedestrian, middle of the road pitchers. We got Chris Freakin' Sale.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

That's why I hated the Masterson signing and disliked the Dempster one. Penny/Smoltz...

 

I actually liked our trade for Miley at the time. We didn't give up much, and he had good road splits before coming here.

[sk7326]

That's why I hated the Masterson signing and disliked the Dempster one. Penny/Smoltz...

 

I actually liked our trade for Miley at the time. We didn't give up much, and he had good road splits before coming here.

 

The Dempster deal was okay - for a #5 starter who is pretty durable, he was okay. Masterson had almost no chance of being good - his splits were so disgusting that it prevented that from being a realistic possibility.

[moonslav59]

The Dempster deal was okay - for a #5 starter who is pretty durable, he was okay. Masterson had almost no chance of being good - his splits were so disgusting that it prevented that from being a realistic possibility.

 

I just hate trying to improve a team by upgrading from a crappy 5 starter to an okay one.

 

1) An okay starter is usually unpredictable, injury prone or both.

2) The differential is minor.

3) I prefer to pay more or trade more prospects for a 1 or 2 starter.

 

For example, getting Chris Freakin' Sale, in effect, caused this to happen....

 

Price became our #2 not our #1.

 

Porcello became our #3 not our #2.

 

ERod became our #4.

 

Pom or Wright became our #5. The other became depth, which we really needed this year.

 

I know we only gained one pitcher, but I think the ripple effect is real.

 

[sk7326]

I just hate trying to improve a team by upgrading from a crappy 5 starter to an okay one.

 

1) An okay starter is usually unpredictable, injury prone or both.

2) The differential is minor.

3) I prefer to pay more or trade more prospects for a 1 or 2 starter.

 

For example, getting Chris Freakin' Sale, in effect, caused this to happen....

 

Price became our #2 not our #1.

 

Porcello became our #3 not our #2.

 

ERod became our #4.

 

Pom or Wright became our #5. The other became depth, which we really needed this year.

 

I know we only gained one pitcher, but I think the ripple effect is real.

 

 

In 2013, the Sox had the top of the rotation figured out, especially once Lackey showed some chops - a low, cheap one year deal to a pitcher who has at least been pretty good before was fine ... would I have rather traded for King Felix? Sure. But that is living a world that did not exist.

 

The ripple effect is real - but Chris Sale is not available all the time.

[oldtimer]

I just hate trying to improve a team by upgrading from a crappy 5 starter to an okay one.

 

1) An okay starter is usually unpredictable, injury prone or both.

2) The differential is minor.

3) I prefer to pay more or trade more prospects for a 1 or 2 starter.

 

For example, getting Chris Freakin' Sale, in effect, caused this to happen....

 

Price became our #2 not our #1.

 

Porcello became our #3 not our #2.

 

ERod became our #4.

 

Pom or Wright became our #5. The other became depth, which we really needed this year.

 

I know we only gained one pitcher, but I think the ripple effect is real.

 

 

I look forward to getting E-Rod back since his potential is to become the #4 or even #3 level starter for us this year. He has been injury prone, but it that can be worked out he has the talent.

[Kimmi]

In 2013, the Sox had the top of the rotation figured out, especially once Lackey showed some chops - a low, cheap one year deal to a pitcher who has at least been pretty good before was fine ... would I have rather traded for King Felix? Sure. But that is living a world that did not exist.

 

The ripple effect is real - but Chris Sale is not available all the time.

 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

In 2013, the Sox had the top of the rotation figured out, especially once Lackey showed some chops - a low, cheap one year deal to a pitcher who has at least been pretty good before was fine ... would I have rather traded for King Felix? Sure. But that is living a world that did not exist.

 

The ripple effect is real - but Chris Sale is not available all the time.

 

Aces and #2's are always hard to find, especially through trades. but they do happen.

 

Greinke was traded before the 2011 season.

 

Gio Gonzalez was traded before 2012 season.

 

Many others worked out okay or did not work out very well; AJ Burnett, Shields, Dickey, Jimenez, and I'm sure there are others I am forgetting.

 

 

I realize that sometimes the cost of getting a 1 or 2 is way too high, and all that is left is to try and upgrade your 4/5 slot, but in my opinion, every effort should be made to avoid these types of situations.

 

[sk7326]

Aces and #2's are always hard to find, especially through trades. but they do happen.

 

Greinke was traded before the 2011 season.

 

Gio Gonzalez was traded before 2012 season.

 

Many others worked out okay or did not work out very well; AJ Burnett, Shields, Dickey, Jimenez, and I'm sure there are others I am forgetting.

 

 

I realize that sometimes the cost of getting a 1 or 2 is way too high, and all that is left is to try and upgrade your 4/5 slot, but in my opinion, every effort should be made to avoid these types of situations.

 

 

Thing with the 4/5 is that it is all so low risk - and (if you were being honest), Dempster delivered a totally fine performance as a #5. Would it have been nice to be cheaper? Sure - but as always, I have very little interest in John Henry's marginal wealth.

[sk7326]

There's another issue with this too, and it's their union. I don't know how/if they can prevent a player signing for less money than his current contract allows but I'm very confident that they "very strongly discourage" it.

 

They darn well should prevent a player from writing down a contract - otherwise it becomes ripe for the sort of coersion that happens in the NFL. There will be a few who are not served by that - but not giving the owners that hammer is well worth it.

[moonslav59]

Thing with the 4/5 is that it is all so low risk - and (if you were being honest), Dempster delivered a totally fine performance as a #5. Would it have been nice to be cheaper? Sure - but as always, I have very little interest in John Henry's marginal wealth.

 

My position is that the money could be spent better elsewhere. Do some of these signings ever reap rewards as pitchers do better than expected? Yes, but far more crash and burn.

[Bellhorn04]

Dempster had actually pitched more like a #3 or even a #2 with the Cubs - 200 innings a year with an ERA+ of 110 or better most years.

[S5Dewey]

Ryan Dempster 2013 as our #5 guy - 171 IP in 29 starts with an ERA of ~4.5. That's about 6 IP and 3 ER's per start, a/k/a a quality start. I'll take that from my #5 guy every time.

Yeah, we probably could have signed someone for cheaper money and not won the AL East.

 

And then as if to do the Sox the ultimate favor he retired and walked away from a contract that would have paid him $13M the next year.

 

You'll never hear me say anything bad about Ryan Dempster.

[Kimmi]

Ryan Dempster 2013 as our #5 guy - 171 IP in 29 starts with an ERA of ~4.5. That's about 6 IP and 3 ER's per start, a/k/a a quality start. I'll take that from my #5 guy every time.

Yeah, we probably could have signed someone for cheaper money and not won the AL East.

 

And then as if to do the Sox the ultimate favor he retired and walked away from a contract that would have paid him $13M the next year.

 

You'll never hear me say anything bad about Ryan Dempster.

 

My understanding is that one of the big reasons the Sox wanted Dempster was for his professionalism and his leadership. IMO, he contributed more to the team than what his numbers say, not that I'm criticizing his on field performance.

 

Like you, I have nothing bad to say about Dempster.

[moonslav59]

I get the attitude thing, but I don't recall anyone not being happy that he retired instead of forcing the Sox to may his second year.

 

He wasn't a bad #5. He actually did fine as a #5.

 

He had the chance to pitch like a #4 or maybe even a #3, but I didn't think he was going to get better as he aged and moved from the NL central to the AL east.

[a700hitter]

I get the attitude thing, but I don't recall anyone not being happy that he retired instead of forcing the Sox to may his second year.

 

He wasn't a bad #5. He actually did fine as a #5.

 

He had the chance to pitch like a #4 or maybe even a #3, but I didn't think he was going to get better as he aged and moved from the NL central to the AL east.

His wife, kids and family probably think he is a gigantic ******* for walking away from $13 million.

[Spudboy]

Ryan Dempster 2013 as our #5 guy - 171 IP in 29 starts with an ERA of ~4.5. That's about 6 IP and 3 ER's per start, a/k/a a quality start. I'll take that from my #5 guy every time.

Yeah, we probably could have signed someone for cheaper money and not won the AL East.

 

And then as if to do the Sox the ultimate favor he retired and walked away from a contract that would have paid him $13M the next year.

 

You'll never hear me say anything bad about Ryan Dempster.

 

Plus he plunked A-Roid when he came back.

 

I think?

[S5Dewey]

Plus he plunked A-Roid when he came back.

 

I think?

 

YES!!! That in itself will endear him to me forever. IIRC he obviously tried twice to hit ARod and failed, and when he hit him on the 3rd try the umpire refused to throw him out of the game.

 

That's one of my great moments in baseball!!

[moonslav59]

A brief history of our #4/5 slot acquisitions:

 

(Note: sometimes acquiring #5/6 types is essential to building rotation depth at a low budget cost, and I included #6 types in my list, but my main focus is on those we acquired as a number 4 or 5. Ones that were expected to give us 15-20 starts, at least.)

 

Fister 0-2 6.14

Velazquez 1-1 5.27

Kendrick 0-2 12.96

O'Sullivan 2-0 6.75

R Elias 0-1 12.91

Pomeranz 11-9 4.07 (Could have been viewed as a #3/4 type)

Joe Kelly 4-0 5.18 (as a starter in 2016)

Masterson 4-2 5.61

Rich Hill 2-1 1.55

Wade Miley 11-11 4.46 (Maybe expected to be our #3/4 type)

Jake Peavy 1-9 4.72 (2014)

Doubront 2-4 6.07 (2014)

Webster 5-3 5.03

de la Rosa 4-8 4.43

Joe Kelly 10-6 4.82 (as a starter in 2015)

Dempster 8-9 4.57

Doubront 11-6 4.32

Peavy 4-1 4.04 (2013)

Webster 1-2 8.60

Doubront 11-10 4.86 (2012)

A Cook 4-11 5.65

(D Bard and F Morales used as starters in 2012)

A Miller 6-3 5.54 (primarily as a SP'er in 2011)

E Bedard 1-2 4.03

K Weiland 0-3 7.66 (2011--Not an acquisition)

B Penny 7-8 5.61

J Smoltz 2-5 8.33 (Hated these two signings)

P Byrd 1-3 5.82 (2009)

P Byrd 4-2 4.78 (2008)

B Colon 4-2 3.92

 

This is a pretty complete list of the last 10 years. A few worked out well, a few worked out okay or "as expected", but many many more totally flamed out.

[moonslav59]

His wife, kids and family probably think he is a gigantic ******* for walking away from $13 million.

 

Didn't he say he did it for his family?

[Emp9]

Yeah but Fister got very little run support that first game June 25th, he could've won...

 

June 30th, Fister didn't get the win, but Sox won the game...

 

So, in my mind he's sorta 1-2. From a spot starter, I'll take what I can get and by no means expect all that much.

[moonslav59]

I realize it is virtually impossible to avoid situations where injuries and unexpected cliff dives force a move to find a #5 at a much lower cost than a desperation move for a #1,

2 or 3, but my philosophy is to try and avoid them as much as possible. I'm sure most GMs and fans would agree that having to get a number 5 is not something anyone wants to do.

 

Take this year's Sox as an example. We had 6 good to great starters on opening day. It's hard to blame DD for not getting a 7th good starter (non 4/5 slot type) due to cost it would have taken to acquire one that good. I don't "blame" DD for lack of foresight in us having to use Fister, Kendrick, Velazquez. The Masterson, Dempster, Penny-Smoltz type signings are different. These guys were signed to start 20-33 times as 5th starters.

 

[moonslav59]

Yeah but Fister got very little run support that first game June 25th, he could've won...

 

June 30th, Fister didn't get the win, but Sox won the game...

 

So, in my mind he's sorta 1-2. From a spot starter, I'll take what I can get and by no means expect all that much.

 

I'm glad we won't need our 5th starter come playoff time.

[a700hitter]

Didn't he say he did it for his family?

And your conclusion is that they asked him to retire and give up $13 million.