2017 Rotation Discussion

[devildavid]

It is not about IP but pitch count. That is why starters go fewer innings. One long inning can severely limit IP by the starter. Pitch count is how pitchers are managed, and those with lesser stuff are bound to rack up higher counts sooner.

[Nick]

It is not about IP but pitch count. That is why starters go fewer innings. One long inning can severely limit IP by the starter. Pitch count is how pitchers are managed, and those with lesser stuff are bound to rack up higher counts sooner.

 

I said "Both Pomeranz and E Rod needs to be more efficient with pitches. Throwing a high pitch on 0-2 count does not mean throwing 2 feet over the strike zone."

 

E Rod is highly thought of by Sox front office. DD was willing to give up a top prospect for Pomeranz. He too is highly thought of by the front office. I'm expecting more than mediocrity here. Maybe all of you are willing to settle for #4/#5 types.

 

My point is right now they still lack command. They are willing to go deep into counts against all batters. There's no point in wasting a pitch. Sale doesn't.

 

I want a kick ass pitching staff. How's Price coming along?

Edited May 4, 2017 by Nick

[devildavid]

I said "Both Pomeranz and E Rod needs to be more efficient with pitches. Throwing a high pitch on 0-2 count does not mean throwing 2 feet over the strike zone."

 

E Rod is highly thought of by Sox front office. DD was willing to give up a top prospect for Pomeranz. He too is highly thought of by the front office. I'm expecting more than mediocrity here. Maybe all of you are willing to settle for #4/#5 types.

 

My point is right now they still lack command. They are willing to go deep into counts against all batters. There's no point in wasting a pitch. Sale doesn't.

 

I want a kick ass pitching staff. How's Price coming along?

 

Yes, but that is who they are as pitchers. The better pitchers are more often than not more efficient. Most pitchers won't come close to being like Sale. We also don't want lesser pitchers grooving strikes and getting hammered. They can only do what has worked for them so far in their careers.

[moonslav59]

Slav, Wake was a really good pitcher with Pittsburgh before he came to Boston. Wright, not so much

 

Wake was pretty close to the exact situation like Wright. He had a short stretch of greatness (just 13 starts his first year) followed by a poor stretch. Unlike Wright, he was released by the Pirates. He had a couple of good years in the minors before joining the big club in Pitt.

 

Pitt wrote off Wake too early. Maybe you guys are writing Wright off too early- pun intended. Maybe not. We'll see.

 

Wright had a 2.18 ERA after 15 starts in 2017- a longer sample size than Wake's in Pitt. He still had a 3.01 ERA after 22 starts. He also pitched well for the Sox in 2014 and 2015, and while he didn't do great in the minors in 2015, he did very well in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

 

His body of work since 2012 looks a lot like Wake's early going.

 

[mvp 78]

Yes, but that is who they are as pitchers. The better pitchers are more often than not more efficient. Most pitchers won't come close to being like Sale. We also don't want lesser pitchers grooving strikes and getting hammered. They can only do what has worked for them so far in their careers.

 

Yes, if Pomeranz pitching in the strike zone all game, he wouldn't last 3 innings.

[mvp 78]

Wake was pretty close to the exact situation like Wright. He had a short stretch of greatness (just 13 starts his first year) followed by a poor stretch. Unlike Wright, he was released by the Pirates. He had a couple of good years in the minors before joining the big club in Pitt.

 

Pitt wrote off Wake too early. Maybe you guys are writing Wright off too early- pun intended. Maybe not. We'll see.

 

Wright had a 2.18 ERA after 15 starts in 2017- a longer sample size than Wake's in Pitt. He still had a 3.01 ERA after 22 starts. He also pitched well for the Sox in 2014 and 2015, and while he didn't do great in the minors in 2015, he did very well in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

 

His body of work since 2012 looks a lot like Wake's early going.

 

 

I'm writing him off until he can prove himself healthy. He clearly isn't ready to go right now.

[moonslav59]

Yes, if Pomeranz pitching in the strike zone all game, he wouldn't last 3 innings.

 

___ +1 ____

[Nick]

___ +1 ____

 

I disagree

[jad]

Wright now gone for the season. So now we can talk about something else? Who?

[cp176]

Wright now gone for the season. So now we can talk about something else? Who?

 

Doesn't matter - maybe even a real athlete

[Northern Star]

Wright now gone for the season. So now we can talk about something else? Who?

 

Kyle Kendrick, you're up.

[Maxbialystock]

Without Price and Wright the Sox still have a real ace in Sale and 3 pretty decent starters in Porcello, Pomeranz, and ERod. And the bullpen is pretty good, with the result that even after last night's 8 runs the Sox have the 3d best ERA in MLB. That's why we still have a winning record.

 

Unfortunately, everything else stinks. The Sox rank 26th in runs scored, and are dead last of 30 MLB teams in errors. Their base running, if anything, is worse than the hitting and fielding.

 

Given the above, I find it slightly comical that everyone enjoys dumping on Kendrick to reinforce the notion--dumpster-diving, I believe--that the FO is clueless about getting good pitching. If they--and I am no real fan of DD--are clueless, than frankly I wouldn't mind a little more of it.

 

I do think the hitting will come around, but still not be as good as in years past. Probably in the top third of runs scored.

 

On defense the outfield is pretty good although Betts is clearly the only bonafide gold glover because, let's face it, JBJ's arm is strong but erratic. All three have good range.

 

The infield is the problem, especially 3b. But so far Moreland hasn't been remotely like the great fielder we anticipated. Pedroia has lost some range. And Bogaerts, who works hard at his position, will never be a great SS. We like him because he is a good hitting SS.

 

Remember that ERA, 3d best? Well, the operative initial is that E for earned. Thus the Sox have the 3d most earned runs in MLB, 97. But they are like 6th in runs with 110, which means they already have 13 unearned runs.

Edited May 5, 2017 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

On defense the outfield is pretty good although Betts is clearly the only bonafide gold glover because, let's face it, JBJ's arm is strong but erratic. All three have good range.

 

JBJ is currently 5th in UZR despite the fact that he has played 60-120 less innings than the 4 guys ahead of him.

 

He's GG caliber, and although he makes some bad throws, many runners don't even try to take an extra base off him.

[Emp9]

Sooo, how long of a leash do we give Kendrick? Do we kick the tires on Workman while Price is out?

[S5Dewey]

On defense the outfield is pretty good although Betts is clearly the only bonafide gold glover because, let's face it, JBJ's arm is strong but erratic. All three have good range.

 

JBJ is currently 5th in UZR despite the fact that he has played 60-120 less innings than the 4 guys ahead of him.

 

He's GG caliber, and although he makes some bad throws, many runners don't even try to take an extra base off him.

 

In addition to that, he also gets to balls that other CF's don't get to. Benintendi had a ball drop near the triangle a few days ago in a spot where JBJ caught one just a few days prior. Sure, the case can be made that we don't know where the fielders were positioned, but still... that means that Beni may have been positioned CLOSER to where the ball hit than JBJ was. We don't know.

 

I don't know how many runs saved plays like that amount to over a season but it's probably enough to more than make up for JBJ's offensive streakiness.

[mvp 78]

Without Price and Wright the Sox still have a real ace in Sale and 3 pretty decent starters in Porcello, Pomeranz, and ERod. And the bullpen is pretty good, with the result that even after last night's 8 runs the Sox have the 3d best ERA in MLB. That's why we still have a winning record.

 

Unfortunately, everything else stinks. The Sox rank 26th in runs scored, and are dead last of 30 MLB teams in errors. Their base running, if anything, is worse than the hitting and fielding.

 

Given the above, I find it slightly comical that everyone enjoys dumping on Kendrick to reinforce the notion--dumpster-diving, I believe--that the FO is clueless about getting good pitching. If they--and I am no real fan of DD--are clueless, than frankly I wouldn't mind a little more of it.

 

I do think the hitting will come around, but still not be as good as in years past. Probably in the top third of runs scored.

 

On defense the outfield is pretty good although Betts is clearly the only bonafide gold glover because, let's face it, JBJ's arm is strong but erratic. All three have good range.

 

The infield is the problem, especially 3b. But so far Moreland hasn't been remotely like the great fielder we anticipated. Pedroia has lost some range. And Bogaerts, who works hard at his position, will never be a great SS. We like him because he is a good hitting SS.

 

Remember that ERA, 3d best? Well, the operative initial is that E for earned. Thus the Sox have the 3d most earned runs in MLB, 97. But they are like 6th in runs with 110, which means they already have 13 unearned runs.

 

Complaining about a fill in 5th starter is low hanging fruit.

 

You're right, there are REAL problems that deserve a discussion.

[mvp 78]

Sooo, how long of a leash do we give Kendrick? Do we kick the tires on Workman while Price is out?

 

I'd bring up Brian Johnson again or try Hector Velazquez.

[S5Dewey]

Sooo, how long of a leash do we give Kendrick? Do we kick the tires on Workman while Price is out?

 

We certainly give Workman a look. He was respectable before the TJ surgery and is worth holding onto until he proves he can't do the job.

 

Also, IIRC Kendrick has an opt-out in June so we also need to make him feel welcome during May.

[mvp 78]

I disagree

 

You think he's healthy or that health hasn't been a concern for him in 2017?

[Nick]

Complaining about a fill in 5th starter is low hanging fruit.

 

You're right, there are REAL problems that deserve a discussion.

 

I predict Price will return sooner rather than later. Our rotation will be fine. I also project Carson Smith returning at some point. Thornburg I'm not counting on.

 

Comparing year over year, Betts actually had slightly better April in 2017, 293/363/439 ops 802 vs 266/298/459 ops 757. Same goes for Hanley, 2017 ops of .719 vs .698 fpr 2016. Xander is also up, .731 in 17 vs .684 in 16. Bradley jr is down .597 in 17 vs .807 in 16. Pedy is also down, .663 in 17 vs .845 in 2016.

 

Although both Beni and Moreland has put up very respectable ops with .870 and .837, departed Ortiz, 1.072 and Shaw, .885 had much better April last year. Most telling is the top 4 slugging percentage year ago exceeds this year's slugging percentage.

[Emp9]

In addition to that, he also gets to balls that other CF's don't get to. Benintendi had a ball drop near the triangle a few days ago in a spot where JBJ caught one just a few days prior. Sure, the case can be made that we don't know where the fielders were positioned, but still... that means that Beni may have been positioned CLOSER to where the ball hit than JBJ was. We don't know.

 

I don't know how many runs saved plays like that amount to over a season but it's probably enough to more than make up for JBJ's offensive streakiness.

 

I know what play you're talking about, and yes, JBJ makes that play all day long. Not a knock on Beni, only 5-6 CFers in the league make that play I'm guessing.Just so happens JBJ is one of them.

[moonslav59]

Sooo, how long of a leash do we give Kendrick? Do we kick the tires on Workman while Price is out?

 

I would have gone with Workman over Kendrick anyways, so I'm ready to switch now.

 

I'd give Workman 3-4 starts, at least, and if he fails, I'd try Johnson, assuming he's still doing well on the farm between now and then.

[Emp9]

Complaining about a fill in 5th starter is low hanging fruit.

 

You're right, there are REAL problems that deserve a discussion.

 

With Price still out (another 4-5 weeks?), Wright gone for the season ( Ugh, I honestly didn't see this coming ), Pom only lasting around 5 innings, and Kendrick who can't last 3 without losing the game....I want to make the most out of that 5th spot as much as we can.

 

Right now:

 

Porcello

Sale

ERod

Pom

Kendricks

 

in another month:

 

Porcello

Sale

Price

ERod

Pom

 

Getting Price back is a huge upgrade but the waiting is killing me. I'm hoping ERod can give us what Porcello gave us last year. ERod's starts are so key right now in my mind.

[illinoisredsox]

I would have gone with Workman over Kendrick anyways, so I'm ready to switch now.

 

I'd give Workman 3-4 starts, at least, and if he fails, I'd try Johnson, assuming he's still doing well on the farm between now and then.

 

Workman has started exactly 1 game since 2014, a 2 inning stint in the Gulf Coast League last year (which I suspect was more of a rehab start).

 

He had only appeared in 4 games with Pawtucket this year, going 8 total innings. There is no way he is stretched out enough to start in Boston right now.

[devildavid]

With Price still out (another 4-5 weeks?), Wright gone for the season ( Ugh, I honestly didn't see this coming ), Pom only lasting around 5 innings, and Kendrick who can't last 3 without losing the game....I want to make the most out of that 5th spot as much as we can.

 

Right now:

 

Porcello

Sale

ERod

Pom

Kendricks

 

in another month:

 

Porcello

Sale

Price

ERod

Pom

 

Getting Price back is a huge upgrade but the waiting is killing me. I'm hoping ERod can give us what Porcello gave us last year. ERod's starts are so key right now in my mind.

 

Unfortunately, Porcello is not giving us what Porcello gave us last year. I'm just happy Erod is healthy and pitching decently so far.

[Nick]

You think he's healthy or that health hasn't been a concern for him in 2017?

 

He was beginning to struggle before injury last year. How to you determine why knuckle ball is not knuckling? To me that's the biggest dilemma. Everyone seems to struggle coming up with a cure. It can't be loss of speed. It also can't be location to the extent thrower doesn't know where it's going, just a general direction.

 

Throw in unfortunate pinch running error and recent knee issue (where in the hell did that come from ?), I'm not confident he's a factor in Red Sox future. DD will always favor big, bad ass flame thrower in the starting rotation.

[mvp 78]

I know what play you're talking about, and yes, JBJ makes that play all day long. Not a knock on Beni, only 5-6 CFers in the league make that play I'm guessing.Just so happens JBJ is one of them.

 

JBJ wouldn't have gotten to that ball if he was positioned where Beni was. No chance.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ wouldn't have gotten to that ball if he was positioned where Beni was. No chance.

 

Where was Beni? In comparison to where JBJ would have been playing, I mean.

[Emp9]

JBJ wouldn't have gotten to that ball if he was positioned where Beni was. No chance.

 

Insert pic of skeptical snake here: _

[Emp9]

Skeptical Snake is on vaca', but Skeptical Dog is not: