2017 Rotation Discussion

[Fisk]

Since most of these deals involved prospects, the jury will be out of some time.

 

However, here's my view on how well the players we have acquired have met expectations (or not)

 

Here are his significant moves so far (The jury is till out!):

 

(Grade is only for how well the player(s) we obtained has done- not how well the players we gave up have done or project to do.)

 

Trades:

Kimbrel for Margot, Guerra, Allen & Asuaje Kimbrel has been hurt and dropped in effectiveness: D

C Smith & R Elias for Miley & J Aro Smith has been out hurt and Elias disappeared: F

A Hill for W Rijo & AA Wilkerson Hill sucked: F

B Ziegler for L Basabe & J Almonte Ziegler was crucial: A

Pomeranz for Espinoza Pom was damaged good: D-

Abad for P Light Underperformed on expectations: C-

 

C Sale for Moncada, Kopech, L Basabe & V Diaz Looking great, so far! A+

T Thornburg for T Shaw, M Dubon, Pennington On the DL: F

J Tobias for C Buchholz: No expectations here: Incomplete

 

Signings:

C Young Great signing, but was hurt for part of 2016: B+

D Price Underperformed and now is hurt: D+

M Moreland So, so: C

 

(Note" these are not definitive grades. It is way too early to judge.)

 

Draft:

12 Groome (looks great)

51 Chatham (looks good)

88 S Anderson (Unknown)

118 Dalbec (looks promising)

 

Kimbrel is not a d he has converted 21 straight saves, might not be as dominant as in the past, but in the most part has come through.

[Fisk]

Hard to say Kimbrel was an overpay after the Giles, Chapman, Miller and Davis trades.

[Nick]

Hard to say Kimbrel was an overpay after the Giles, Chapman, Miller and Davis trades.

 

No way he deserves a D....

[Kimmi]

If it was Lucchino that made all the bad moves, Henry probably wouldn't have replaced Ben.

 

Lucchino did not make all the bad moves. Ben is responsible for some of them, like the Lackey trade. Henry panicked after 2 last place finishes. That's why Ben was fired.

[Kimmi]

It was really hard to pick Beni with a 7th pick....And who drafted Ball with a 7th pick?

 

How about DD picking up Groome with the 12th pick and signing him? It's way too early to evaluate DD's first draft pick.

 

It is way too early to evaluate Dombrowski.

 

I'm just saying that I believe in the Theo/Ben philosophy of building a franchise and disagree with the Dombrowski philosophy. That's all.

 

I do not like reading posts about how great Dombrowski is because of the state of our current team, like he magically transformed it into a division winner all by himself. The majority of the core was already in place. Dombrowski added a few pieces, which he was only able to do because of the farm built by Theo and Ben.

[Kimmi]

I don't see any difference. We've been hearing about DD's 2021 cliff for months.

 

Yes, but I will give Dombrowski the full credit he deserves if he steers us away from that cliff. I have said that before. As of now, I don't like the future direction of the team.

[Kimmi]

DD did everything he could to salvage Ortiz' last season. He got us a Division title after last place finishes back to back. I just don't get the 'hatred' for this guy.

 

No hatred for the guy. But nor do I think he should be put on a pedestal.

 

He's no Theo, that's for sure.

 

And Dombrowski did not get us a division title. The team is still largely Theo's and Ben's. Dombrowski came into a very good situation and is reaping the reward.

[Bellhorn04]

No hatred for the guy. But nor do I think he should be put on a pedestal.

 

He's no Theo, that's for sure.

 

And Dombrowski did not get us a division title. The team is still largely Theo's and Ben's. Dombrowski came into a very good situation and is reaping the reward.

 

Dombrowski came into a great situation, there's no question about that.

 

Theo also came into a very good position after the 2002 season, inheriting a team with a 100-62 Pythagorean record. He did a great job with it, of course.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is not a d he has converted 21 straight saves, might not be as dominant as in the past, but in the most part has come through.

 

He was hurt for part of last year and has done worse than any year in his career.

 

His ERA has been about double what it was before Boston.

 

I gave him a "D" based on "expectations". If I graded based on how he does as compared to other closers, he'd get a B- or C+.

 

We gave up 4 prospects and paid FA like money to get a top 3-5 closer.

 

So far, that's not what we got.

 

The jury is still out, though.

[Spudboy]

He was hurt for part of last year and has done worse than any year in his career.

 

His ERA has been about double what it was before Boston.

 

I gave him a "D" based on "expectations". If I graded based on how he does as compared to other closers, he'd get a B- or C+.

 

We gave up 4 prospects and paid FA like money to get a top 3-5 closer.

 

So far, that's not what we got.

 

The jury is still out, though.

 

This is a fair evaluation.

 

My concern is that Kimbrel's best days are behind him.

 

He was not always wild as f*** was he? He was a monster in Atlanta if I recall.

 

The guy I watch does not match up with his stat history.

 

And that concerns me, knee operation not withstanding.

[moonslav59]

This is a fair evaluation.

 

My concern is that Kimbrel's best days are behind him.

 

He was not always wild as f*** was he? He was a monster in Atlanta if I recall.

 

The guy I watch does not match up with his stat history.

 

And that concerns me, knee operation not withstanding.

 

He's probably still a top 10 closer, but for what we gave up and for what we are paying him contractually, we should have expected top 5.

[sk7326]

This is a fair evaluation.

 

My concern is that Kimbrel's best days are behind him.

 

He was not always wild as f*** was he? He was a monster in Atlanta if I recall.

 

The guy I watch does not match up with his stat history.

 

And that concerns me, knee operation not withstanding.

 

It was a weird trade at the time too - the investment in the closer was understandable but probably could have been sourced a lot cheaper.

[moonslav59]

It was a weird trade at the time too - the investment in the closer was understandable but probably could have been sourced a lot cheaper.

 

There were not many good closers on the FA market that year, but it was before that cost exploded. I think Clippard was the best to sign.

 

There were a ton of trades involving good to very good RP'ers that winter. None cost as much as Kimbrel, but at the time, he was viewed as a top 3 closer.

 

I realize great closers are a big boost to a team's chance of winning, but I've never been for overpaying at that position. At the time, Kimbrel was making near top dollar already as a closer.

 

Yes, I'd have signed him to that contract.

 

Yes, I'd have just barely traded those 4 prospects for a cheap Kimbrel (because I thought he would remain a top 5 or 6 closer for the 3 years).

 

No, I would not have done both.

[mvp 78]

No, I would not have done both.

 

Then you definitely wouldn't have a top closer.

[moonslav59]

Then you definitely wouldn't have a top closer.

 

Yup. I'd have traded scraps for KRod and signed Clippard. With the prospects "saved" we could have reconfigured some trades or waited for a blockbuster.

 

With the money saved, we could have upgraded elsewhere or for example, kept a guy like Uehara or Ziegler.

[moonslav59]

Then you definitely wouldn't have a top closer.

 

One could argue, we don't now.

 

Kimbrel is ranked 29th in RP'er WAR since 2016 among 138 RP'ers with 50+ IP

[sk7326]

There were not many good closers on the FA market that year, but it was before that cost exploded. I think Clippard was the best to sign.

 

There were a ton of trades involving good to very good RP'ers that winter. None cost as much as Kimbrel, but at the time, he was viewed as a top 3 closer.

 

I realize great closers are a big boost to a team's chance of winning, but I've never been for overpaying at that position. At the time, Kimbrel was making near top dollar already as a closer.

 

Yes, I'd have signed him to that contract.

 

Yes, I'd have just barely traded those 4 prospects for a cheap Kimbrel (because I thought he would remain a top 5 or 6 closer for the 3 years).

 

No, I would not have done both.

 

I don't agree with buying what you can make. I understand Dombrowski's temptation and views differ here.

[moonslav59]

I'm hopeful that Kimbrel can at least move towards what he used to be and improve on where he's been since joining the Sox.

 

The fact that he has not reached expectations, so far, makes me dislike the trade even more than I did at the time.

 

There's still more than half of his control years left, so there's still time to turn thing around.

[Spudboy]

I just think that it is at least notable that DD has made 5 major acquisitions of pitchers and none of them has panned out so far.

 

Price was of some value last year but clearly was not the guy we saw in Tampa, Detroit, or Toronto.

 

I hope some or all of these moves turn out to be good ones.

[Nick]

I just think that it is at least notable that DD has made 5 major acquisitions of pitchers and none of them has panned out so far.

 

Price was of some value last year but clearly was not the guy we saw in Tampa, Detroit, or Toronto.

 

I hope some or all of these moves turn out to be good ones.

 

I think Sale will work out.

[Spudboy]

I think Sale will work out.

 

I believe so as well.

[cp176]

I just think that it is at least notable that DD has made 5 major acquisitions of pitchers and none of them has panned out so far.

 

Price was of some value last year but clearly was not the guy we saw in Tampa, Detroit, or Toronto.

 

I hope some or all of these moves turn out to be good ones.

 

I think that it is notable I just don't see it as being a negative thing in any way. Pitching is so unpredictable that more often than not it is a case of being damned if you do or don't. Sale is for sure an ace. I bet we all agree on that one. As much as I like Porcello, I'm not going to say that that signing was a stroke of genius. Who knew that we had a potential MVP with that sign. I don't know whether DD will wind up proving to be better or worse than anyone else who has done his job. What I do know, is that I like a GM who addresses needs and isn't afraid to make moves that he thinks will give his team a chance to win.

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski came into a great situation, there's no question about that.

 

Theo also came into a very good position after the 2002 season, inheriting a team with a 100-62 Pythagorean record. He did a great job with it, of course.

 

Absolutely. Duquette gets much of the credit for 2004.

 

All I'm saying is stop acting like Dombrowski magically transformed this team into a winner all by himself. Ben and Theo deserve much, most, of the credit for our current team. I'm not talking about you specifically, but some posters.

[Kimmi]

Then you definitely wouldn't have a top closer.

 

How much of an actual difference is there between a 'top' closer and a good closer?

 

(Rhetorical question, BTW, since I already have the answer.)

[Fisk]

How much of an actual difference is there between a 'top' closer and a good closer?

 

(Rhetorical question, BTW, since I already have the answer.)

 

Not much.

[Fisk]

I just think that it is at least notable that DD has made 5 major acquisitions of pitchers and none of them has panned out so far.

 

Price was of some value last year but clearly was not the guy we saw in Tampa, Detroit, or Toronto.

 

I hope some or all of these moves turn out to be good ones.

 

Well the good news is Thornburg and Price should be back sometime in May and Smith in June or July, hopefully they live up to expectations or get somewhat close.

[moonslav59]

Well the good news is Thornburg and Price should be back sometime in May and Smith in June or July, hopefully they live up to expectations or get somewhat close.

 

Plus Ross and Elias.

[mvp 78]

How much of an actual difference is there between a 'top' closer and a good closer?

 

(Rhetorical question, BTW, since I already have the answer.)

 

I generally agree. I just don't understand moon's "the price was ok and the contract was ok, but not both."

[moonslav59]

I generally agree. I just don't understand moon's "the price was ok and the contract was ok, but not both."

 

Seems pretty simple to me.

 

I'm barely okay with signing a big time FA closer at top dollar.

 

I'm barely okay with trading 4 prospects for any RP'er, even a top 3-5 closer like Kimbrel was expected to be (by me too).

 

Doing both is like paying double.

[moonslav59]

How much of an actual difference is there between a 'top' closer and a good closer?

 

Well, my idea of signing Clippard and trading scraps for KRod would have meant about this:

 

Financial cost:

$12.25M/2 Clippard ($6.125M towards luxury budget)

$13.5M/2 KRod ($5.7M towards luxury budget)

Total: $11.825M luxury cost

 

Kimbrel:$37M/3 ($10.75M luxury for 2 years then $12M for 2018)

 

 

Prospect cost:

 

Kimbrel: Margot, Guerra, Allen, Asuaje

 

KRod: The equivalent of Javier Betancourt (maybe Wendell Rijo or Carlos Asuaje?)