2017 Rotation Discussion

[Nick]

I'm super high on ERod. He could become ace material as soon as this year. What a boost that would be.

 

I've also been very high on Wright for years. I love the knuckleball and think it messes with hitters' timing - sometimes for a few games afterwards.

 

I like Pom, too, but I think I just like these other two more. (No, it has nothing to do with hating the idea of trading Espi for a risky #3 type.)

 

My problem with Pom is his demeanor on the mound. He looks to lack confidence. And by the way I feel same about Barnes. What he said after his first outing was all b.s. That he was 'surprised' to get the call? Porcello says "be ready next time out".

 

When E Rod pitches well, he looks to be unhittable.

 

I'm looking forward to next 30 days...one scheduled day off.

[Emp9]

Exactly. But, I will add that I think when a guy like Sale comes available, any time is "the right time" to get him.

 

True. but, say for example a...

 

Sale

Porcello*

De La Rosa

Webster

Masterson

 

would've been, what's a good word?... "wasteful"?

[moonslav59]

True. but, say for example a...

 

Sale

Porcello*

De La Rosa

Webster

Masterson

 

would've been, what's a good word?... "wasteful"?

 

Well, with 3 years of team control, it would still be a great "get".

 

Surely, sometimes are better than others.

 

Plus, if we had Sale back then, and HanRam hit like he did in 2016, we might have made the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

..Which is why we had to go pitcher shopping during this off season. Ugh. We were very fortunate that Sale was available and that we had the players to get him.

 

I disagree. I don't think we had to go pitcher shopping this off season. With Price's injury, it's a good thing that we did, in hindsight, but I don't think we needed to at the time.

[Kimmi]

Do you think it was randomness or choking?

 

(Sorry Kimmi...I tried to resist but I couldn't.)

 

LOL

 

You'll be surprised to hear that there actually was quite a bit of randomness or bad luck involved. Price's peripherals are much better than his ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL

 

You'll be surprised to hear that there actually was quite a bit of randomness or bad luck involved. Price's peripherals are much better than his ERA.

 

In that case there was nothing to be frustrated about.

[Kimmi]

In that case there was nothing to be frustrated about.

 

Ha. Actually, randomness is very frustrating.

 

There's nothing like hitting a ball right on the screws right at a defender, then watching your opponent get a check swing dribbler for a base hit.

[moonslav59]

I disagree. I don't think we had to go pitcher shopping this off season. With Price's injury, it's a good thing that we did, in hindsight, but I don't think we needed to at the time.

 

I can see your point, because I do think the trade tipped the balance of gutting the farm to much to the extreme, but to me, that was the fault of the Espi & Kimbrel trades,

not this one.

 

I get that this one happened afterwards, so in a sense this deal put us over the tipping point, but you just don't get chances like this very often. 3 years of control for a top proven ace at a low luxury tax and budget cost.

 

I think these types of deals are a must.

 

I hated losing Moncada and Kopech, but we did get Chris Freakin' Sale!

[Kimmi]

I can see your point, because I do think the trade tipped the balance of gutting the farm to much to the extreme, but to me, that was the fault of the Espi & Kimbrel trades,

not this one.

 

I get that this one happened afterwards, so in a sense this deal put us over the tipping point, but you just don't get chances like this very often. 3 years of control for a top proven ace at a low luxury tax and budget cost.

 

I think these types of deals are a must.

 

I hated losing Moncada and Kopech, but we did get Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying. The trade for Sale on its own is something that I'd be okay with. The trade after all of the others was the tipping point, as you said.

 

I am thrilled that we have Sale, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the deal.

 

It was the same with Price - thrilled that we have him, but don't agree with the contract.

[Nick]

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying. The trade for Sale on its own is something that I'd be okay with. The trade after all of the others was the tipping point, as you said.

 

I am thrilled that we have Sale, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the deal.

 

It was the same with Price - thrilled that we have him, but don't agree with the contract.

 

Unless you can offer an alternative .....

 

So what would you have done on your official first off season? You got hired because the team just finished dead last for second year in a row. "We have five aces" strategy did not work. You would just sit tight? Offer some scenarios. You can't simply continue to critique without offering solution.

[Nick]

Oh by the way, now that Clay is gone he's become quite a legend around here among some of you.....he pitched 5 innings, gave up 8 hits, 2 walks and 4 runs.

 

Yeah, I miss him too.

Edited April 9, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying. The trade for Sale on its own is something that I'd be okay with. The trade after all of the others was the tipping point, as you said.

 

I am thrilled that we have Sale, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with the deal.

 

It was the same with Price - thrilled that we have him, but don't agree with the contract.

 

If we hadn't traded for Pom & Kimbrel would you have liked, loved or just been okay with the Sale trade?

[George is dead, thank god]

Totally agree. Bomb-erance is garbage!! He got lit up out of the gate by the Gints and had sucked ever since. He was picked up to give Papi some hope on the way out, but please. Owens has way more upside. Maybe he will contribute something in Pawtucket. Give the youngins a chance. See what we got.

[mvp 78]

Owens has little upside at this point. He can't throw strikes and is a soft tosser.

[Bellhorn04]

Totally agree. Bomb-erance is garbage!! He got lit up out of the gate by the Gints and had sucked ever since. He was picked up to give Papi some hope on the way out, but please. Owens has way more upside. Maybe he will contribute something in Pawtucket. Give the youngins a chance. See what we got.

 

Is that you Pike?

[southpaw777]

Is he over here now? LOL

The name seemed ofd

[Kimmi]

Unless you can offer an alternative .....

 

So what would you have done on your official first off season? You got hired because the team just finished dead last for second year in a row. "We have five aces" strategy did not work. You would just sit tight? Offer some scenarios. You can't simply continue to critique without offering solution.

 

I would have started the offseason before by locking Lester up to a Homer Bailey like deal. But, I digress...

 

I had confidence in Porcello being a much better pitcher than he was for us in 2015. That negates some of the dire need for starting pitching. I would not have done the Kimbrel trade, and instead put together a package for Sale, Quintana, one of the Guardians young starters, or some other young, cost-controlled starter.

 

I do not claim to know more or to be able to do a better job than Dombrowski or any GM. I have said that many times, and am just voicing my opinion as is everyone else here. I just have a very strong belief in the philosophy of building the team from the farm system up and not handing out ridiculous contracts to free agents, especially to pitchers, and double especially to pitchers north of 30, although I understand that such contracts are sometimes necessary. I would not have done the Price contract though.

 

I also have a very strong belief against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy. There are very, very few players that I'm going to gut the farm or break the bank for. I believe in building a team that is not going to fall off a cliff in 2020 or 2021!

 

Also, I wholeheartedly believe that this team was bound for the playoffs in 2016 without having to bring in Dombrowski to 'get the job done'. The youngsters were ready. I have no way of proving it (look at that S5, something I believe in with absolutely no proof), but I am very sure that the team would have made the playoffs if Ben had remained, and I am also pretty sure that I would have agreed with his moves more.

[Kimmi]

Oh by the way, now that Clay is gone he's become quite a legend around here among some of you.....he pitched 5 innings, gave up 8 hits, 2 walks and 4 runs.

 

Yeah, I miss him too.

 

Clay is so misunderstood.

 

I do miss him, warts and all.

[Kimmi]

If we hadn't traded for Pom & Kimbrel would you have liked, loved or just been okay with the Sale trade?

 

I would have liked and maybe even loved it. It's hard to say without knowing what other moves might have occurred in place of getting Kimbrel and Pom. I understand that part of the reason for building a farm is to use the prospects in trade. I get that and have no problem with it. It's the overkill that I have a problem with.

 

Let me reiterate that I love having Sale and Price on the team. Some people (not you) don't seem to be able to differentiate between hating the deal but being thrilled with the player.

[Kimmi]

is that you pike?

 

lol

[S5Dewey]

I would have started the offseason before by locking Lester up to a Homer Bailey like deal. But, I digress...

 

I had confidence in Porcello being a much better pitcher than he was for us in 2015. That negates some of the dire need for starting pitching. I would not have done the Kimbrel trade, and instead put together a package for Sale, Quintana, one of the Guardians young starters, or some other young, cost-controlled starter.

 

I do not claim to know more or to be able to do a better job than Dombrowski or any GM. I have said that many times, and am just voicing my opinion as is everyone else here. I just have a very strong belief in the philosophy of building the team from the farm system up and not handing out ridiculous contracts to free agents, especially to pitchers, and double especially to pitchers north of 30, although I understand that such contracts are sometimes necessary. I would not have done the Price contract though.

 

I also have a very strong belief against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy. There are very, very few players that I'm going to gut the farm or break the bank for. I believe in building a team that is not going to fall off a cliff in 2020 or 2021!

 

Also, I wholeheartedly believe that this team was bound for the playoffs in 2016 without having to bring in Dombrowski to 'get the job done'. The youngsters were ready. I have no way of proving it (look at that S5, something I believe in with absolutely no proof), but I am very sure that the team would have made the playoffs if Ben had remained, and I am also pretty sure that I would have agreed with his moves more.

 

I think most of us would prefer to build from the farm up and not pay the ridiculous contracts. In fact, many years ago Bill James said that the way to use free agency is to fill spots that aren't filled from within and that trying to build an all-star team through free agents won't work. Even the Yankees dynasty (and i do hate to use that word in reference to the Y's) was built around their "Core four". However, the Sox have a history of not being able to recognize/develop starting pitchers but a solid history of bringing along position players.

 

IMO prospects are good for two things - to develop and bring to the majors or to use as trading chips - in the position the Sox are in, probably for pitchers. Therefore what we're doing is trying to recognize and keep our best position players and trade the rest for pitching. Even Moncada, as much as I hated to see him go, was expendable because 1) we didn't have a need for him with all of our OF positions filed, and 2) because he's still a prospect. Given the failure rate of prospects I'll trade a blue-chip prospect for a proven top-flight pitcher every time.

 

It's easy to say in hindsight that we would have tried to work out a package for Sale or Quintana, but at the time the Sox made the Kimbrel trade the Pale Sox had a solid pitching staff and we had no reason to think they'd part with Quintana or Sale. In fact, IMO, if Sale hadn't made himself personna non grata in Chicago he'd still be there with Quintana. So we did what the FO felt they had to do. (Had it been up to me I'd have tried to milk at least one more year out of Koji, but that's another story).

 

My biggest gripe about what happened in this offseason is that we didn't pursue Ziegler harder. I know there was chatter that he was going back West...but we all know how that worked out. Ugh.

[notin]

I would have started the offseason before by locking Lester up to a Homer Bailey like deal. But, I digress...

 

I had confidence in Porcello being a much better pitcher than he was for us in 2015. That negates some of the dire need for starting pitching. I would not have done the Kimbrel trade, and instead put together a package for Sale, Quintana, one of the Guardians young starters, or some other young, cost-controlled starter.

 

I do not claim to know more or to be able to do a better job than Dombrowski or any GM. I have said that many times, and am just voicing my opinion as is everyone else here. I just have a very strong belief in the philosophy of building the team from the farm system up and not handing out ridiculous contracts to free agents, especially to pitchers, and double especially to pitchers north of 30, although I understand that such contracts are sometimes necessary. I would not have done the Price contract though.

 

I also have a very strong belief against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy. There are very, very few players that I'm going to gut the farm or break the bank for. I believe in building a team that is not going to fall off a cliff in 2020 or 2021!

 

Also, I wholeheartedly believe that this team was bound for the playoffs in 2016 without having to bring in Dombrowski to 'get the job done'. The youngsters were ready. I have no way of proving it (look at that S5, something I believe in with absolutely no proof), but I am very sure that the team would have made the playoffs if Ben had remained, and I am also pretty sure that I would have agreed with his moves more.

 

Assuming the Sox would have made the post-season is a big leap, but they were absolutely headed that way. The biggest issue I had was the unprecedented run the Sox were having with an extremely high percentage of high profile prospects who simply didn't flop. Cherington was certainly far too stingy to deal any of them, but at some point it would have made sense.

 

However, while pretty much every high profile prospect for the Sox to suit up in recent years has panned out, some of them, notably Bradley, did take a while. So the Sox might have had some mediocre seasons while waiting on a few others.

 

Now the plus there is with Cherington, the Sox wouldn't have made the foolish Kimbrel and Pomeranz trades (anyone catch Margot the other night?). But he almost definitely would not have acquired Sale, either, which was move that did make sense. And for that matter, I'm not convinced going after Price was his style, as he tended to use free agency the way Bill James recommended and S5 pointed out, which is a method that I agree with. But it can also have some short term implications.

[notin]

Clay is so misunderstood.

 

I do miss him, warts and all.

 

Clay was a top level prospect who never materialized into a consistently high-perfoming pitcher and, while capable of great seasons, also had a few bad ones. And he got injured a lot. And many Sox fans hated him for it.

 

Pomeranz was a top level prospect who only recently finally had a good season and has never been a consistently high-performing pitcher whose bad seasons far outnumber his good ones. And he gets injured a lot. And many Sox fans like him anyway...

[notin]

 

My biggest gripe about what happened in this offseason is that we didn't pursue Ziegler harder. I know there was chatter that he was going back West...but we all know how that worked out. Ugh.

 

 

This past off-season, it seemed like the MO for Dombrowski was to simply not spend any money via free agency. The only player they signed to anything more than a minor league contract was Mitch Moreland, hardly an earth-shattering move. I bet they probably unsuccessfully tried to move a contract or two as well, like maybe Sandoval or Abad.

 

Ziegler was a good pitcher who was acquired for basically nothing, but undoubtedly went into negotiations with a few saves under his belt and wanted to be paid as some sort of cheap version of a closer, which would make him a pricey reliever. He did get $8mill per season.

[Fisk]

This past off-season, it seemed like the MO for Dombrowski was to simply not spend any money via free agency. The only player they signed to anything more than a minor league contract was Mitch Moreland, hardly an earth-shattering move. I bet they probably unsuccessfully tried to move a contract or two as well, like maybe Sandoval or Abad.

 

Ziegler was a good pitcher who was acquired for basically nothing, but undoubtedly went into negotiations with a few saves under his belt and wanted to be paid as some sort of cheap version of a closer, which would make him a pricey reliever. He did get $8mill per season.

 

Abad they could have just non-tendered.

[cp176]

Clay was a top level prospect who never materialized into a consistently high-perfoming pitcher and, while capable of great seasons, also had a few bad ones. And he got injured a lot. And many Sox fans hated him for it.

 

Pomeranz was a top level prospect who only recently finally had a good season and has never been a consistently high-performing pitcher whose bad seasons far outnumber his good ones. And he gets injured a lot. And many Sox fans like him anyway...

 

Clay was a frustrating player for a fan to cheer for. When he was on he was an A- but when he was off you get to pick what he was. I always anticipated ace resemblance from him. I've never envisioned such heights for Pomeranz. Middle of the rotation kind of guy to me. If people think that too much was given up for him, so be it. For me, the jury is still out on that one.

[Nick]

I would have started the offseason before by locking Lester up to a Homer Bailey like deal. But, I digress...

 

In the winter of 2015, Lester had already pitched for the Cubs...so he was not available to DD.

I had confidence in Porcello being a much better pitcher than he was for us in 2015. That negates some of the dire need for starting pitching. I would not have done the Kimbrel trade, and instead put together a package for Sale, Quintana, one of the Guardians young starters, or some other young, cost-controlled starter.

 

As ineffective as Kimbrel was at times, he did give us some 30+ saves. What we gave up for him would not have helped the Sox in 2016. You don't have an answere for a reliever.

 

I do not claim to know more or to be able to do a better job than Dombrowski or any GM. I have said that many times, and am just voicing my opinion as is everyone else here. I just have a very strong belief in the philosophy of building the team from the farm system up and not handing out ridiculous contracts to free agents, especially to pitchers, and double especially to pitchers north of 30, although I understand that such contracts are sometimes necessary. I would not have done the Price contract though.

 

Still not sure if we would have won without Price in 2016....yep his contract is bit high but that's what it took not knowing what others were offering.

 

I also have a very strong belief against the 'win now at any cost' philosophy. There are very, very few players that I'm going to gut the farm or break the bank for. I believe in building a team that is not going to fall off a cliff in 2020 or 2021!

 

Lets just see how fast we'll going off the cliff in 2020....are you thinking Thelma and Louise cliff diving?

Also, I wholeheartedly believe that this team was bound for the playoffs in 2016 without having to bring in Dombrowski to 'get the job done'. The youngsters were ready. I have no way of proving it (look at that S5, something I believe in with absolutely no proof), but I am very sure that the team would have made the playoffs if Ben had remained, and I am also pretty sure that I would have agreed with his moves more.

 

I have to disagree there....it took every bit of Price and Kimbrel

[Kimmi]

I think most of us would prefer to build from the farm up and not pay the ridiculous contracts. In fact, many years ago Bill James said that the way to use free agency is to fill spots that aren't filled from within and that trying to build an all-star team through free agents won't work. Even the Yankees dynasty (and i do hate to use that word in reference to the Y's) was built around their "Core four". However, the Sox have a history of not being able to recognize/develop starting pitchers but a solid history of bringing along position players.

 

IMO prospects are good for two things - to develop and bring to the majors or to use as trading chips - in the position the Sox are in, probably for pitchers. Therefore what we're doing is trying to recognize and keep our best position players and trade the rest for pitching. Even Moncada, as much as I hated to see him go, was expendable because 1) we didn't have a need for him with all of our OF positions filed, and 2) because he's still a prospect. Given the failure rate of prospects I'll trade a blue-chip prospect for a proven top-flight pitcher every time.

 

It's easy to say in hindsight that we would have tried to work out a package for Sale or Quintana, but at the time the Sox made the Kimbrel trade the Pale Sox had a solid pitching staff and we had no reason to think they'd part with Quintana or Sale. In fact, IMO, if Sale hadn't made himself personna non grata in Chicago he'd still be there with Quintana. So we did what the FO felt they had to do. (Had it been up to me I'd have tried to milk at least one more year out of Koji, but that's another story).

 

My biggest gripe about what happened in this offseason is that we didn't pursue Ziegler harder. I know there was chatter that he was going back West...but we all know how that worked out. Ugh.

 

I don't disagree with most of what you posted. I understand that prospects have to be traded away sometimes to fill the holes. I have no problem with that. I just think that what Dombrowski did was overkill. I think he could have fielded a competitive team both last year and this year without gutting the farm to the extent that he did.

 

That said, I fully acknowledge that I have no idea who was available and what kinds of prices were being asked for anyone who was available.

[Kimmi]

Assuming the Sox would have made the post-season is a big leap, but they were absolutely headed that way. The biggest issue I had was the unprecedented run the Sox were having with an extremely high percentage of high profile prospects who simply didn't flop. Cherington was certainly far too stingy to deal any of them, but at some point it would have made sense.

 

However, while pretty much every high profile prospect for the Sox to suit up in recent years has panned out, some of them, notably Bradley, did take a while. So the Sox might have had some mediocre seasons while waiting on a few others.

 

Now the plus there is with Cherington, the Sox wouldn't have made the foolish Kimbrel and Pomeranz trades (anyone catch Margot the other night?). But he almost definitely would not have acquired Sale, either, which was move that did make sense. And for that matter, I'm not convinced going after Price was his style, as he tended to use free agency the way Bill James recommended and S5 pointed out, which is a method that I agree with. But it can also have some short term implications.

 

I don't think it's a big leap at all to think the Sox would have made the post season had Cherington remained the GM. He would have made some moves for pitching. He would have traded some of his prospects to do so. Anyone can sign a free agent by outbidding the nearest opponent by $37 million.

 

I'm not sure going after Price was Cherington's style either, but with Henry having a change of heart and opening up his wallet, who knows what Cherington would have done? However, I am pretty confident that Cherington felt that the time was right to 'go for it'. He just wouldn't have gone for it to the extent that Dombrowski did.

[Kimmi]

In the winter of 2015, Lester had already pitched for the Cubs...so he was not available to DD.

 

I am aware of that. I posted that as an aside.

 

 

As ineffective as Kimbrel was at times, he did give us some 30+ saves. What we gave up for him would not have helped the Sox in 2016. You don't have an answere for a reliever.

 

I don't have a problem with the job that Kimbrel did for us, frustrating as he was at times. I just don't believe in paying a fortune for closers, and I have never agreed with doing so. IMO, you can get pretty comparable value for a lot less. Your best closers often come out of nowhere.

 

The prospects given up for him might not have helped our team in 2016, but that's not the point. Maybe they could have been packaged for a starter.

 

We already had Koji. In building a bullpen, I'm of the philosophy that you stockpile as many inexpensive, quality arms you can, and see what sticks. If you want specific names, sorry I don't have those for you without going back and looking to see who who might have been available.

 

Still not sure if we would have won without Price in 2016....yep his contract is bit high but that's what it took not knowing what others were offering.

 

If we had another top starter instead of Price? It's very likely that we would have won.

 

As far as going off the cliff is concerned, Dombrowski still has time to fix that. We'll see what happens over the next few years.