Clutch vs non-clutch

[Kimmi]

Talent + motivation + adrenaline = increased success in clutch situations.

Increased success in clutch situations = a deserved reputation for being clutch.

 

So, when the player returns the following season, with the same talent + motivation + adrenaline, why is there decreased success in clutch situations? I'm not talking about one failed attempt. I'm talking about overall worse numbers than the average numbers.

 

You can claim clutch exists all you want, but the fact remains that there is no season to season correlation with clutch. It is not a repeatable skill.

[cp176]

I can see that. It's not made-up mumbo jumbo about love and bigfoot.

 

You have to lay off this bigfoot crap! You just don't know. You come up here- You'll see things you never thought existed! Not talking about Portland, Maine south either. You might not ever leave- you might not be able to.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure. I would feel very comfortable attributing his issues to fatigue, not that we know whether that's the case. I just don't feel comfortable attributing his issues to being a choker.

 

Fatigue - one more factor that can be concealed by our old friend Randomness.

[a700hitter]

Is that the same John Henry who said that Pablo was at 17% body fat last season?

I believe that it was Farrell who made the BMI remark last year.

[Hugh2]

So, when the player returns the following season, with the same talent + motivation + adrenaline, why is there decreased success in clutch situations? I'm not talking about one failed attempt. I'm talking about overall worse numbers than the average numbers.

 

You can claim clutch exists all you want, but the fact remains that there is no season to season correlation with clutch. It is not a repeatable skill.

 

If that is the "equation" I can testify that adrenaline can hinder performance just as much as increase it. It was those who knew how to control their emotions who performed. Hence my "maintain your composure" argument

[mvp 78]

Is that the same John Henry who said that Pablo was at 17% body fat last season?

 

He's big boned.

[Bellhorn04]

If that is the "equation" I can testify that adrenaline can hinder performance just as much as increase it. It was those who knew how to control their emotions who performed. Hence my "maintain your composure" argument

 

Yes, I would think composure is a bigger component of performance under pressure than adrenaline...

[User Name]

Yes, I would think composure is a bigger component of performance under pressure than adrenaline...

 

Oh, so not letting nerves get to you, aka not choking. Case closed.

[User Name]

You have to lay off this bigfoot crap! You just don't know. You come up here- You'll see things you never thought existed! Not talking about Portland, Maine south either. You might not ever leave- you might not be able to.

 

I live in a tropical island where some people still pay money to put voodoo curses on other people. Your argument has no power over me.

[User Name]

Sure. I would feel very comfortable attributing his issues to fatigue, not that we know whether that's the case. I just don't feel comfortable attributing his issues to being a choker.

 

But he might be, although he probably isn't. There's just no definitive way to know.

[S5Dewey]

So, when the player returns the following season, with the same talent + motivation + adrenaline, why is there decreased success in clutch situations? I'm not talking about one failed attempt. I'm talking about overall worse numbers than the average numbers.

 

You can claim clutch exists all you want, but the fact remains that there is no season to season correlation with clutch. It is not a repeatable skill.[/QUOT

 

I would submit that the premise of the question is wrong. After a six month layoff one does not return with the same talent, motivation and adrenaline for the same reasons I can no longer hit an 80 mph fastball. I don't have the talent or probably the adrenaline I had 40 years ago, although I do think I could muster up the same motivation if only just to prove that I could still do it. :-)

[User Name]

What a cop-out.

 

If Mookie Betts had a poor season by all of the ridiculous and arbitrary clutch standards that have been presented here this year, but became a "clutch" monster next year, then what's the excuse? It's happened to many other players (A-Rod) smack dab in the middle of their prime, because "clutch" is made-up hoopla.

[mvp 78]

What a cop-out.

 

If Mookie Betts had a poor season by all of the ridiculous and arbitrary clutch standards that have been presented here this year, but became a "clutch" monster next year, then what's the excuse? It's happened to many other players (A-Rod) smack dab in the middle of their prime, because "clutch" is made-up hoopla.

 

If it's not real, why is The Greatest Clutch Hitter in the History of the Boston Red Sox, David Ortiz, #34?

[User Name]

If it's not real, why is The Greatest Clutch Hitter in the History of the Boston Red Sox, David Ortiz, #34?

 

He does have a plaque.....

[dgalehouse]

I think it depends on the task at hand. For something strictly physical , adrenaline would be more important. When mental aspects are involved , composure comes more into play.

[mvp 78]

he does have a plaque.....

 

that's all i'm saying!

[S5Dewey]

He does have a plaque.....

 

That leaves us with but two options. Either clutch does exist or David Ortiz has has a fraud perpuated upon him by the R'S front office by bestowing an honor upon him which cannot exist.

[mvp 78]

That leaves us with but two options. Either clutch does exist or David Ortiz has has a fraud perpuated upon him by the R'S front office by bestowing an honor upon him which cannot exist.

 

Lock 'em up!

Lock 'em up!

[Bellhorn04]

That leaves us with but two options. Either clutch does exist or David Ortiz has has a fraud perpuated upon him by the R'S front office by bestowing an honor upon him which cannot exist.

 

There is a third option as made painfully clear in this thread.

 

A lot of people think clutch (or non-choking) exists, but nobody has produced an acceptable definition and nobody knows how to prove or disprove it.

[cp176]

There is a third option as made painfully clear in this thread.

 

A lot of people think clutch (or non-choking) exists, but nobody has produced an acceptable definition and nobody knows how to prove or disprove it.

 

no one can

and

no one can

 

Clutch is when I want it to be and what I want it to be

[User Name]

That leaves us with but two options. Either clutch does exist or David Ortiz has has a fraud perpuated upon him by the R'S front office by bestowing an honor upon him which cannot exist.

 

I was clearly joking. Clutch doesn't exist.

[Kimmi]

If that is the "equation" I can testify that adrenaline can hinder performance just as much as increase it. It was those who knew how to control their emotions who performed. Hence my "maintain your composure" argument

 

I agree with the 'maintain your composure' argument, or defining clutch as the lack of choking.

 

I just think that players who succeed at the major league level are pretty much all able to maintain their composure under pressure. Those who can't maintain their composure don't make it to the majors, or they don't last very long. So, while I believe that chokers exist, I don't think that they exist at the major league level.

[Kimmi]

But he might be, although he probably isn't. There's just no definitive way to know.

 

There's no definitive way to know, but I don't think Price is a choker. He has either been fatigued or he's been the victim of randomness.

[Kimmi]

I would submit that the premise of the question is wrong. After a six month layoff one does not return with the same talent, motivation and adrenaline for the same reasons I can no longer hit an 80 mph fastball. I don't have the talent or probably the adrenaline I had 40 years ago, although I do think I could muster up the same motivation if only just to prove that I could still do it. :-)

 

Really? The difference in a player's talent, motivation, and adrenaline after one offseason is the same as the difference in how you are now and 40 years ago?

 

I am not buying your argument at all. Besides, clutch stats don't even correlate well from the first half of the season to the second.

[S5Dewey]

Really? The difference in a player's talent, motivation, and adrenaline after one offseason is the same as the difference in how you are now and 40 years ago?

 

.

Of course not. I didn't just wake up one morning and say to myself, "Wow. How come I'm suddenly playing like an old guy??" It took me years to get this way and it happened gradually, the same way I lost my hair - a little at a time.

[Kimmi]

On the topic of players embracing analytics, I read a good article today from Pinstripe Alley:

 

Stubbornness Among the Anti-Analytics Crowd is Understandable

 

Here's an excerpt:

 

For athletes at any level, confidence is essential to success. But confidence may be more than just believing in one’s ability to complete a task. It is possible that a true, genuine belief that one is doing something “the right way” inspires confidence. For example, imagine a pitcher who is 100% certain that the best way to pitch is to throw a fastball down the middle every time. In this example, his belief is completely unwavering. Even an ERA over 9.00 will not change his mind.

 

It is entirely possible that this imaginary pitcher will be as confident as anyone. This is a short-handed example of why some players and coaches are so hesitant to embrace sabermetrics. In many cases, doing so would mean questioning a large bulk of what they thought to be true within the game of baseball. In a sport that is routine-driven and requires the peace of mind to balance out the highs and lows, opening their views up to scrutiny can be detrimental to their performance.

[cp176]

I am going to just suggest that that first paragraph isn't a very good example to use to prove any sensible point. Now, I know I don't know much about a great deal but I think if you found anyone in any line of work who failed miserably at everything they did over and over and still felt that they were doing things the right way - that person would be stupid. Embracing analytics and accepting every aspect of them forsaking everything you have ever learned and really do think works might be two separate issues.

It is a shorthanded example in my opinion and I hope that and actually believe that most franchises accept that analytics do in fact provide valuable feedback for teams to use. Believing this as opposed to just accepting one side (sadly) or the other as being absolutely 100% is where the issue lies.

[S5Dewey]

Nice article...I guess.. but it has little to nothing to do with the debate at hand. I am and always have been a Bill James disciple and I believe in sabermetrics but that doesn't mean that I accept everything a sabermatrician says without proof.It also doesn't mean that I'm going to ignore the human aspect of the game and the physiological aspects of it either.

 

If we accept that clutch doesn't exist we also have to accept the fact that a team stringing together several hits in a row - staging a rally - is the result of randomness. Everyone who's ever played knows that's just not true. A rally like that is the result of adrenaline and motivation and in fact often times flies in the face of probability.

 

Statisticians (and sabermaticians) and accountants do what they do. They deal with numbers without consideration of the human aspect and that's fine in a world where they're dealing with finite qualities like numbers. However, their results don't hold up when the human aspect is brought into play.

[Bellhorn04]

If we accept that clutch doesn't exist we also have to accept the fact that a team stringing together several hits in a row - staging a rally - is the result of randomness. Everyone who's ever played knows that's just not true. A rally like that is the result of adrenaline and motivation and in fact often times flies in the face of probability.

 

Rallies happen and no doubt there is adrenaline and motivation involved. But the question is why did the team stage a big rally in that game, and then were unable to do the same thing the next game and the game after that? Maybe the answer is that in the first game they were facing a pitcher or pitchers who weren't very sharp.

 

This is the 'repeatibility' issue that is a big part of why the researchers find no evidence of clutch.

[Kimmi]

I am going to just suggest that that first paragraph isn't a very good example to use to prove any sensible point. Now, I know I don't know much about a great deal but I think if you found anyone in any line of work who failed miserably at everything they did over and over and still felt that they were doing things the right way - that person would be stupid. Embracing analytics and accepting every aspect of them forsaking everything you have ever learned and really do think works might be two separate issues.

It is a shorthanded example in my opinion and I hope that and actually believe that most franchises accept that analytics do in fact provide valuable feedback for teams to use. Believing this as opposed to just accepting one side (sadly) or the other as being absolutely 100% is where the issue lies.

 

I don't think that people stick with their known routines because they are stupid, but rather because they are stubborn and because we are creatures of habit. The example cited in the article is an extreme case given just to make the point.

 

The author does go on to say that the player cannot alter everything he knows because that would create more problems with mechanics etc. In other words, he is not suggesting an all or nothing approach.

 

The author is just suggesting to keep an open mind. Sabermetrics have shown that much of what has been believed for decades is simply not true.