Clutch vs non-clutch

[notin]

Being a calculus teacher, I deal with the concept of infinity all the time. I just finished up a unit on infinite series, as a matter of fact. I love the concept of infinity. I'm not sure how that relates to clutch.

 

Well, it might be the length of this thread before anyone comes up with a definition...

[cp176]

Infinity is a tough concept to grasp. Try thinking about the true meaning of "Forever" some day. THAT is infinity and I still can't grasp it, except within the confines of my own lifetime, however long that ends up being. But anyway.

 

From what I can tell and have seen, mosy greay clutch hitters are great clutch hitters because they are simply great hitters. But, like Papi, they can be great enough to produce enough memorable moments that we give them that label...

 

This is a good post. I don't necessarily agree with you that all "clutch" hitters are great hitters in general, but that is the beauty of having a discussion based around something for which there is no real defining. It has been a good sharing of opinions!

[Bellhorn04]

Let's examine the question of why A-Rod acquired the reputation of being a choker.

 

It started with the 2004 ALCS. Up until Game 4 of the ALCS he was doing just fine and seemed to be earning his stripes as a Yankee.

 

From Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS through the 2007 postseason he had a 16 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.143/.314/.214 1 RBI

 

In 2009 he had a tremendous postseason and led the Yanks to the title.

 

But in 2010 he reverted to his disappearing ways. From the 2010 postseason through the 2012 postseason he had a 21 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.160/.261/.187 6 RBI

 

I can't explain any of it, but it is somewhat remarkable for a hitter as talented as A-Rod to go through 2 stretches as incredibly bad as those.

[Bellhorn04]

Infinity is a tough concept to grasp. Try thinking about the true meaning of "Forever" some day. THAT is infinity and I still can't grasp it, except within the confines of my own lifetime, however long that ends up being. But anyway.

 

From what I can tell and have seen, mosy greay clutch hitters are great clutch hitters because they are simply great hitters. But, like Papi, they can be great enough to produce enough memorable moments that we give them that label...

 

Dave Henderson was not a great hitter, but he was a great postseason hitter.

 

Jeff Bagwell was a great hitter, Mark Teixeira was a superior hitter, Nick Swisher was a very solid hitter, but all 3 were terrible postseason hitters.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, it might be the length of this thread before anyone comes up with a definition...

 

And once again, how can you prove or disprove something that doesn't even have a satisfactory definition?

[Kimmi]

Infinity is a tough concept to grasp. Try thinking about the true meaning of "Forever" some day. THAT is infinity and I still can't grasp it, except within the confines of my own lifetime, however long that ends up being. But anyway.

 

From what I can tell and have seen, mosy greay clutch hitters are great clutch hitters because they are simply great hitters. But, like Papi, they can be great enough to produce enough memorable moments that we give them that label...

 

Infinity is a mind boggling concept, much like the concepts of space and time. Good stuff to think about.

[Kimmi]

Well, it might be the length of this thread before anyone comes up with a definition...

 

LOL

 

Why is it that 'infinite' is pronounced one way and 'finite' is pronounced a different way? These are the types of things that keep me awake at night...

[Kimmi]

Let's examine the question of why A-Rod acquired the reputation of being a choker.

 

It started with the 2004 ALCS. Up until Game 4 of the ALCS he was doing just fine and seemed to be earning his stripes as a Yankee.

 

From Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS through the 2007 postseason he had a 16 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.143/.314/.214 1 RBI

 

In 2009 he had a tremendous postseason and led the Yanks to the title.

 

But in 2010 he reverted to his disappearing ways. From the 2010 postseason through the 2012 postseason he had a 21 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.160/.261/.187 6 RBI

 

I can't explain any of it, but it is somewhat remarkable for a hitter as talented as A-Rod to go through 2 stretches as incredibly bad as those.

 

Arod was a beast in the 2000 ALCS and in the 2004 ALDS. He was also very good in the 2009 postseason, as you pointed out. If he is truly a choker, how was he so good in some of the postseason series? Again, the point is that there is no 'repeatability' to the ideas of clutch and choke (MLB level).

 

Great hitters go through tough streaks all the time.

[Kimmi]

And once again, how can you prove or disprove something that doesn't even have a satisfactory definition?

 

Define it any reasonable way you want. The statistical results are still the same.

[Bellhorn04]

Arod was a beast in the 2000 ALCS and in the 2004 ALDS. He was also very good in the 2009 postseason, as you pointed out. If he is truly a choker, how was he so good in some of the postseason series? Again, the point is that there is no 'repeatability' to the ideas of clutch and choke (MLB level).

 

Great hitters go through tough streaks all the time.

 

And this is why you always have a double-barreled answer available:

 

He did great in the clutch, because he's a great hitter period!

 

He did lousy in the clutch, because even great hitters are subject to random terrible stretches!

 

You can't lose. It's like the old 'heads I win, tails you lose' proposition.

[Kimmi]

And this is why you always have a double-barreled answer available:

 

He did great in the clutch, because he's a great hitter period!

 

He did lousy in the clutch, because even great hitters are subject to random terrible stretches!

 

You can't lose. It's like the old 'heads I win, tails you lose' proposition.

 

I like those odds.

 

That works the other way too. For average players who have terrific postseason numbers, players go through hot streaks all the time too.

[Bellhorn04]

I like those odds.

 

That works the other way too. For average players who have terrific postseason numbers, players go through hot streaks all the time too.

 

Yes, I know - you've got every possible angle covered. It's beautiful.

[S5Dewey]

LOL

 

Why is it that 'infinite' is pronounced one way and 'finite' is pronounced a different way? These are the types of things that keep me awake at night...

 

That might be why you're a math teacher and not teaching Language Arts.

[TedWilliams101]

I think with Arods career post season stat line, 2010-2015 really bring his numbers down. 2010 started his decline and he got worse every year. I do think that some players can't handle pressure well and some just worry too much about what other people think. Arod feel in this category. The most obvious example is David Price. But for clutch, as in those who do perform well in pressure situations, it's not about going beyond one's ability, but about playing your best. You could call it the 'switch', like how Lebron can take it easy during parts of the regular season and then 'turn the switch' for the playoffs. It isn't that he suddenly is better, it's simply that he is actually focusing his full attention and effort. The ability is always there.

 

David Ortiz wasn't better in the playoffs, he simply played to his abilities. Some guys can't do that. Add the sample size issue and you have some guys who appear to way overperform or underperform, but it's just normal variance.

 

ie. Pablo. .344, .389,.935 line in 167 PA in the playoffs vs .287,.338,.790 in 4062 PA regular season. Clear as day example of sample size. Pablo is NOT a .344 hitter w/ .935 OPS. He was hot for 2 playoff runs. I'm taking the sample size of 4000 over 167. No brainer.

[notin]

Let's examine the question of why A-Rod acquired the reputation of being a choker.

 

It started with the 2004 ALCS. Up until Game 4 of the ALCS he was doing just fine and seemed to be earning his stripes as a Yankee.

 

From Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS through the 2007 postseason he had a 16 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.143/.314/.214 1 RBI

 

In 2009 he had a tremendous postseason and led the Yanks to the title.

 

But in 2010 he reverted to his disappearing ways. From the 2010 postseason through the 2012 postseason he had a 21 game stretch that looked like this:

 

.160/.261/.187 6 RBI

 

I can't explain any of it, but it is somewhat remarkable for a hitter as talented as A-Rod to go through 2 stretches as incredibly bad as those.

 

 

Part of it is your only looking at 2 post-seasons and deciding "This is reality." The guy played in 12 post-seasons and had a post-season OPS of .822.

 

And yes, he did struggle from 2010 through 2012, but this was not prime A-Rod, either. He was 35 years old at the beginning of that stretch...

[notin]

I think with Arods career post season stat line, 2010-2015 really bring his numbers down. 2010 started his decline and he got worse every year. I do think that some players can't handle pressure well and some just worry too much about what other people think. Arod feel in this category. The most obvious example is David Price. But for clutch, as in those who do perform well in pressure situations, it's not about going beyond one's ability, but about playing your best. You could call it the 'switch', like how Lebron can take it easy during parts of the regular season and then 'turn the switch' for the playoffs. It isn't that he suddenly is better, it's simply that he is actually focusing his full attention and effort. The ability is always there.

 

David Ortiz wasn't better in the playoffs, he simply played to his abilities. Some guys can't do that. Add the sample size issue and you have some guys who appear to way overperform or underperform, but it's just normal variance.

 

ie. Pablo. .344, .389,.935 line in 167 PA in the playoffs vs .287,.338,.790 in 4062 PA regular season. Clear as day example of sample size. Pablo is NOT a .344 hitter w/ .935 OPS. He was hot for 2 playoff runs. I'm taking the sample size of 4000 over 167. No brainer.

 

So it was the pressure who got to A-Rod in the 2010 playoffs? He was 35 years old when that post-season began.

 

As for Sandoval, his post-season sample size is a little small to make any conclusions. and he was all over the place when he played.

 

He was barely involved in the 2010 post-season, his 3 series post-season OPS numbers in 2012 were .571, .576, 1.125. So did he feel the pressure in the NLDS and NLCS but not the World Series? Or did he just get hot in the World Series? In fact, in the 6 post-season series in 2012 and 2014, Sandoval has either been a non-factor with an OPS below .600 or he was a real factor with an OPS over 1.000. But never in between.

 

That's just wht happens when people look at small sample sizes spread out over multiple years and decide to make conclusions from them...

Edited April 9, 2017 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Part of it is your only looking at 2 post-seasons and deciding "This is reality." The guy played in 12 post-seasons and had a post-season OPS of .822.

 

2 post-seasons? For the sake of accuracy, the 2 stretches I mentioned involved 7 separate postseasons.

 

Also, I didn't 'decide' anything, I specifically said I couldn't explain any of it.

[notin]

2 post-seasons? For the sake of accuracy, the 2 stretches I mentioned involved 7 separate postseasons.

 

Also, I didn't 'decide' anything, I specifically said I couldn't explain any of it.

 

OK, it can be a "general you" to describe his reputation.

 

For example, you look at a 16 game stretch that spans 4 years. That's a really small amount of games per year to make any conclusion. In fact, he was having a good 2004 post-season like many Yankees, but that bad stretch started in two games against Schilling and Pedro (which is a good start for an explanation). It's not like the rest of the Yankees were hitting in those three games, either.

 

The post-2010 stuff we were looking at a 35 year old player with a lot of miles and nagging injuries that, by the time October rolled around, had to be a real detriment.

[Bellhorn04]

OK, it can be a "general you" to describe his reputation.

 

For example, you look at a 16 game stretch that spans 4 years. That's a really small amount of games per year to make any conclusion. In fact, he was having a good 2004 post-season like many Yankees, but that bad stretch started in two games against Schilling and Pedro (which is a good start for an explanation). It's not like the rest of the Yankees were hitting in those three games, either.

 

The post-2010 stuff we were looking at a 35 year old player with a lot of miles and nagging injuries that, by the time October rolled around, had to be a real detriment.

 

It didn't help his rep with Yankee fans that in his first season they did the unthinkable and blew a 3-0 lead against us...and of course we had come within an eyelash of signing him instead. Then he was awful in 05, 06 and 07, with the crowning insult being demoted to 7th in the lineup in 07...

[TedWilliams101]

Part of it is your only looking at 2 post-seasons and deciding "This is reality." The guy played in 12 post-seasons and had a post-season OPS of .822.

 

And yes, he did struggle from 2010 through 2012, but this was not prime A-Rod, either. He was 35 years old at the beginning of that stretch...

 

I crunched his postseason numbers if you take out 2010-2015. For 8 post seasons between 1995 and 2009, his line is: 0.302, 0.409, 0.568, 0.977 in 238 PA.

 

I also crunched his regular season stats from 94-2009 and that stat line is: 0.305, 0.390, 0.576, 0.965. Oh look at that, it's almost identical. So I even just proved my own perception wrong. Arod has not been worse in the playoffs. His sucking from being old and broken down from 2010 on shows up more heavily in his playoff statline than regular season due to the sample size (92 out of 330 PA (28%) for playoffs to 21% in the regular season). Of course looking at it logically, it makes sense that he would be BAD in the playoffs once he got old. His bat speed slows down and he gets exposed by good pitching. He still got by in the regular season being able to hit subpar pitching, but had no chance against good pitching.

 

As for my Pablo reference, I was pointing out the issues with sample size and variance, not supporting it!

Edited April 9, 2017 by TedWilliams101

[Benintendi]

I thought this thread was about whether you preferred a standard or automatic transmission to drive with.

 

Some athletes can handle it when there is pressure on. Some can't. You can call it "clutch" or "choking". I don't call it either one. I simply say some can handle pressure, some can't. But both types of athletes absolutely exist.

[notin]

It didn't help his rep with Yankee fans that in his first season they did the unthinkable and blew a 3-0 lead against us...and of course we had come within an eyelash of signing him instead. Then he was awful in 05, 06 and 07, with the crowning insult being demoted to 7th in the lineup in 07...

 

Oh that absolutely didn't help that they blew the 3-0 lead. Maybe it was around that time Yankee fans were learning you can't just spend your way to a title?

 

They had a crazy run in 1996 to 2000, with 4 titles in 5 seasons. Then they started the process of adding superstar after superstar , and they just never won again. I mean, they just had a GREAT run of success, added Mike Mussina, and it didn't work. Then it was Jason Giambi. Nope. Got even worse. And eventually A-Rod and a post-peak Randy Johnson. And it never worked again. Not that they were ever a bad team in that stretch, just not a champion.

 

Well, until they went all-in and signed Teixeira and Sabathia in one crazy off-season where they spent more on free agents than all of northern Africa spends on food. But even that only got them one title...

[Slasher9]

For those that acknowledge the existence of Clutch - Please carry on with your memories of our 3 WS championships in the 21st century and enjoy every moment in speaking of, remembering fondly one Mr. David Ortiz. You may also enjoy the retirement of his jersey number and look fondly at his number on the facade of Fenway when it's retired officially.

for the Climate....I mean Clutch deniers - you are no longer ever allowed to mumble / think / yell "that was clutch" when one of our beloved Red Sox comes through in the........Clutch. You also should immediately look into the Men in Black pen and have all memories of #34 and our recent 3 WS's celebrations stricken from your denying brains. you have no respect for the joy so you dont deserve it.

Carry on......

[sk7326]

For those that acknowledge the existence of Clutch - Please carry on with your memories of our 3 WS championships in the 21st century and enjoy every moment in speaking of, remembering fondly one Mr. David Ortiz. You may also enjoy the retirement of his jersey number and look fondly at his number on the facade of Fenway when it's retired officially.

for the Climate....I mean Clutch deniers - you are no longer ever allowed to mumble / think / yell "that was clutch" when one of our beloved Red Sox comes through in the........Clutch. You also should immediately look into the Men in Black pen and have all memories of #34 and our recent 3 WS's celebrations stricken from your denying brains. you have no respect for the joy so you dont deserve it.

Carry on......

 

Why not? I saw how much Ortiz stunk in the 2008 ALCS, or the 2009 ALDS or (let's face it except for the grand slam) the 2013 ALCS. Nobody brings those up either - it is why the clutch discussion is a bit weird. I am content with knowing Ortiz was good - and the team was good enough to get him to the plate with a lot on the line.

[Slasher9]

because i deem the deniers to be unworthy.....

[Bellhorn04]

Why not? I saw how much Ortiz stunk in the 2008 ALCS, or the 2009 ALDS or (let's face it except for the grand slam) the 2013 ALCS. Nobody brings those up either - it is why the clutch discussion is a bit weird. I am content with knowing Ortiz was good - and the team was good enough to get him to the plate with a lot on the line.

 

I'm fine with bringing up the series in which he stunk.

 

I think the idea that any hitter is going to be clutch all the time is obviously ridiculous.

 

I'm just looking at the preponderance of data, myself, that's usually how we judge players.

[sk7326]

I'm fine with bringing up the series in which he stunk.

 

I think the idea that any hitter is going to be clutch all the time is obviously ridiculous.

 

I'm just looking at the preponderance of data, myself, that's usually how we judge players.

 

Sure - and postseason data is very small anyway (against good teams, which is important)

 

But the bottom line to me is that clutch moments are almost always decided post hoc (and really more for us fans). The players are not robots - but by and large, the guys you want up with the game on the line are the guys you'd like to have up in general. David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in Sox history. But then, he also has had far, far, far more chances to deliver in big spots than any other player in Red Sox history.

[S5Dewey]

Sure - and postseason data is very small anyway (against good teams, which is important)

 

But the bottom line to me is that clutch moments are almost always decided post hoc (and really more for us fans). The players are not robots - but by and large, the guys you want up with the game on the line are the guys you'd like to have up in general. David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in Sox history. But then, he also has had far, far, far more chances to deliver in big spots than any other player in Red Sox history.

 

Is David Ortiz also the best hitter in Red Sox history?

[Kimmi]

For those that acknowledge the existence of Clutch - Please carry on with your memories of our 3 WS championships in the 21st century and enjoy every moment in speaking of, remembering fondly one Mr. David Ortiz. You may also enjoy the retirement of his jersey number and look fondly at his number on the facade of Fenway when it's retired officially.

for the Climate....I mean Clutch deniers - you are no longer ever allowed to mumble / think / yell "that was clutch" when one of our beloved Red Sox comes through in the........Clutch. You also should immediately look into the Men in Black pen and have all memories of #34 and our recent 3 WS's celebrations stricken from your denying brains. you have no respect for the joy so you dont deserve it.

Carry on......

 

Ha.

[Kimmi]

Sure - and postseason data is very small anyway (against good teams, which is important)

 

But the bottom line to me is that clutch moments are almost always decided post hoc (and really more for us fans). The players are not robots - but by and large, the guys you want up with the game on the line are the guys you'd like to have up in general. David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in Sox history. But then, he also has had far, far, far more chances to deliver in big spots than any other player in Red Sox history.

 

This is so very true.