What will be the 2017 greatest weakness for the Sox?

[Fisk]

I was reading an article today about how well pitchers adjusted to Leon, decreasing their use of fastballs thrown to him from 85% to 66%. Leon grounded out on a lot of those off speed pitches, which was the difference in his success from earlier in the season to later in the season. Even with that, his line drive rate stayed essentially the same, which is a good sign.

 

We'll see how well Leon can adjust to the off speed pitches. Supposedly, he has already made an adjustment to help keep him from pulling those pitches.

 

I am hopeful that we'll see decent numbers from him. If not, it's reassuring that we have both Vazquez and Swihart available.

 

He looked so lost in September and October, I agree we are lucky to have two young catchers.

[harmony]

I was reading an article today about how well pitchers adjusted to Leon, decreasing their use of fastballs thrown to him from 85% to 66%. Leon grounded out on a lot of those off speed pitches, which was the difference in his success from earlier in the season to later in the season. Even with that, his line drive rate stayed essentially the same, which is a good sign.

 

We'll see how well Leon can adjust to the off speed pitches. Supposedly, he has already made an adjustment to help keep him from pulling those pitches.

 

I am hopeful that we'll see decent numbers from him. If not, it's reassuring that we have both Vazquez and Swihart available.

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2017 WAR of 1.6 apiece for Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, to rank 37th and 38th among all projected catchers:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Steamer600 projects Blake Swihart with a 2017 WAR of 1.4 in 600 plate appearances:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 WAR of 2.1 in 640 plate appearances for Leon (1.1 in 352), Vazquez (0.8 in 256) and Swihart (0.1 in 32):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#C

 

ZiPS projects Leon with a 2017 WAR of 1.3 in 276 plate appearances, Vazquez with 1.1 in 357 and Swihart with -0.1 in 342:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[oldtimer]

He looked so lost in September and October, I agree we are lucky to have two young catchers.

 

I still wonder if a guy as stocky and slow as Leon is can last a full season of regular catching duties. His hitting is only one of the questions but if he can hit, he has the best chance of being the starting catcher.

[cp176]

I still wonder if a guy as stocky and slow as Leon is can last a full season of regular catching duties. His hitting is only one of the questions but if he can hit, he has the best chance of being the starting catcher.

 

I know he is slower than fast but is he that much slower than a lot of others? If the starting job was decided by a race between Vazquez and Leon - I think it would still be close.

[moonslav59]

I think what the FO has done is a weakness in terms of the long term outlook of the team. However, in terms of the way this year's team looks, the FO did a great job. As I posted before, I don't think this year's team really has a weakness.

 

I agree. The thread might be better titled, "What is our biggest concern?" (or weakest link). Even a chain with all strong links might have one weaker than others without it being "weak".

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2017 WAR of 1.6 apiece for Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, to rank 37th and 38th among all projected catchers:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Steamer600 projects Blake Swihart with a 2017 WAR of 1.4 in 600 plate appearances:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 WAR of 2.1 in 640 plate appearances for Leon (1.1 in 352), Vazquez (0.8 in 256) and Swihart (0.1 in 32):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#C

 

ZiPS projects Leon with a 2017 WAR of 1.3 in 276 plate appearances, Vazquez with 1.1 in 357 and Swihart with -0.1 in 342:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

Last year, the Sox finished 15th in catcher WAR.

 

Sure, Leon went coo-coo for coco puffs, but even if he drops 150 points off his OPS from last year, it's hard to imagine Vaz hitting .585 again. I'm projecting at least a 50 point gain there. That will mitigate some of the expected offensive loss by Leon.

 

The rest could be made up by anyone of our three catchers improving on this from last year:

 

.468 in 113 PAs by Hanigan

 

.500 in 35 PAs by Holaday.

 

That's 148 PAs (almost 1/4th of all catcher PAs) of about .475 OPS offense. We could improve on that by 150-200 points pretty easily. That might come very close to canceling out Leon's expected big drop. Plus, what if Leon's drop is just 75-100 points?\

 

I see us a middle of the pack again this year with more upside than downside potential, but maybe that's me just being a "homer".

[moonslav59]

I still wonder if a guy as stocky and slow as Leon is can last a full season of regular catching duties. His hitting is only one of the questions but if he can hit, he has the best chance of being the starting catcher.

 

Leon has not been hurt that much over his career. True, he's been on the bench for a chunk of it, but I just don't see him as being so fat that it's a major concern.

 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=sandy+leon&safe=strict&rlz=1C1UDIB_enUS705US705&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=925&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiW0rGYqZfSAhUC3WMKHfgECbYQ_AUIBygC#imgrc=hkGirPd_6Qw7nM:

[oldtimer]

Leon has not been hurt that much over his career. True, he's been on the bench for a chunk of it, but I just don't see him as being so fat that it's a major concern.

 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=sandy+leon&safe=strict&rlz=1C1UDIB_enUS705US705&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=925&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiW0rGYqZfSAhUC3WMKHfgECbYQ_AUIBygC#imgrc=hkGirPd_6Qw7nM:

 

I'm 6'1' and 235# Whereas Leon is the same weight but 2 inches shorter. I think he is at least 20 # over his reasonable playing weight. It has to impact his speed and it is hard to say about durability. I know Molina has been quite heavy as well and managed it but I would like to see Leon take the Panda challenge and get into better playing shape.

[georom4]

Ticket/food/parking prices. It would be nice if I could afford to see a few games this year without going broke. That is our main problem in 2017!

[Slasher9]

Starting Pitching.

[mvp 78]

Only one vote for David Price. Sad!

[User Name]

2 votes for David Price now!

[mvp 78]

Bigly

[iortiz]

Considering what is going on with Price, probably he will. Hopefully he is fine this season. Good part of our success depends on him. Edited March 8, 2017 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Considering what is going on with Price, probably he will. Hopefully he is fine this season. Good part of our success depends on him.

 

I thought you'd say "Porcello, because he will never have an ERA under 4.50 ever again." I guessed wrong. Hope fatherhood is treating you well!

[iortiz]

I thought you'd say "Porcello, because he will never have an ERA under 4.50 ever again." I guessed wrong. Hope fatherhood is treating you well!

 

Porcello was probably the biggest comeback of all time in any sport last year LOL! I do not expect another Cy young award from him, but neither what he showed in 2015, so... If he posts something around 4.0, in my book, he will be oks.

 

Regarding Fatherhood, while it has been tough, I'm very happy with my boy, thanks for your good wishing MVP

 

Unfortunately I haven't have time to post more than I used to; between my business and family I barely have time to catch some sleep LOL!, but time to time I read what you guys post.

[a700hitter]

There may be more to be concerned with about David Price than just his elbow. After reading the article, I don't find Price's replies as disturbing as the author does. Also, I don't agree with the authors concern that Price's contract could rival Carl Crawford's as a bust. Price did far more in 2016 than Crawford did over the life of his contract.

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[TD][h=1]DAVID PRICE RANTS LIKE A CRAZY PERSON IN BIZARRE BOSTON GLOBE INTERVIEW[/h][/TD]

[TD=align: right]03.08.17 at 10:47 am ET[/TD]

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By Alex Reimer

http://fullcount.weei.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/David-Price1-e1488987731928.jpgDavid Price doesn’t seem to handle criticism well. (Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

David Price is the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. And he’s losing his mind because of Twitter trolls and bloviating talk radio hosts. We’re witnessing the self-destruction of a man.

In a bizarre interview with Stan Grossfeld of the Boston Globe, Price laments the treatment he received in Boston last year. He led the league in starts and innings pitched, but also gave up more hits than any other starting pitcher as well. In his lone postseason outing, Price surrendered five runs over 3.1 innings. The Red Sox wound up getting swept by the Guardians, and his career playoff record as a starter fell to 0-8.

Given Price’s astronomical salary, it was an underwhelming debut season. As a result, he faced some heat. The vitriol wasn’t immense –– Tom Brady’s Week 5 return against the Browns overshadowed the Red Sox’s October flop –– but his Twitter mentions probably weren’t pretty. Dan Shaughnessy wrote a mean thing about him in the Globe, too. If Price can’t handle that, imagine how he would’ve fared when the Red Sox were the No. 1 team around here.

Throughout his conversation with Grossfeld, it’s apparent Price is paranoid. He rants about Red Sox fans being out to get him, and bemoans sports writers for not learning about his charity. Nearly the entire interview should disturb Red Sox management, but the most troublesome exchanges are below:

Q. What is your passion?

A. I have a foundation, Project One Four. That’s one of the things that honestly chafed me about being in Boston — with the reporters, not one time did anybody take the time to get to know me or my foundation or anything I do away from the field?

Baseball writers get paid to cover Price as a baseball player. They don’t get paid to publicize his charitable endeavors. That may seem callous, but it’s the truth. It doesn’t bode well for Price if he doesn’t understand that.

Q. One of your heroes is Satchel Paige, right?

A. Oh yeah.

Q. So Satchel Paige always said, “Don’t look back, something might be gaining on you.” So why are you still looking behind you on this 0-8 (playoff record) thing?

A. It’s what’s going to be said. If I say it first, what do you have to say about me? You have nothing to say about me personally. That’s the only thing you have to say.

Price, who will make $30 million this season, is apparently taking preemptive strikes against anonymous critics on Twitter. As a result, he does things like tweet about his playoff record while he’s on vacation in Hawaii. The egg avatars own real estate in his head. With that attitude, he couldn’t make it on Kirk & Callahan’s “Casting Couch” –– never mind as ace of the Red Sox.

Q. Tell me something about you that people don’t know. Surprise me.

A. People in Boston don’t know anything about me. The only thing I have to do is pitch good. People don’t care about what I do or the type of person that I am. That doesn’t matter.

Q. It matters to me.

A. It doesn’t matter to these people in Boston. I’ve got to go out there and earn respect by pitching well. Period. That’s the only thing that’s going to turn the page for me in Boston. I’ve got to go out there and dominate. People don’t care what I do off the field.

Shockingly, Red Sox fans will judge Price by how he performs on the field. This should be common sense for any professional athlete, especially an 11-year Major League veteran.

Q. What size are your shoes?

A. 13½. If you lived it and you told me they cared, OK. If you experienced it on a day-to-day basis — everything — you wouldn’t think that. They don’t care. I’m David Price the pitcher; I’m not a person.

It seems like Price lives in an alternative universe. He took the mound 17 times at Fenway last season, and was greeted with nothing but applause during every single start. The “everything” Price is referring to appears to be people chiding him on talk radio and social media. Just view us as white noise, David. It will be better for your personal wellbeing.

Q. We can do something about it. People don’t know you’re bringing coffee to the trainers at 6:45 a.m.

A. People don’t care. I’m going to catch crap for bringing in Starbucks — sorry this is not Dunkin’ Donuts. I’m going to catch crap for that 100 percent. I could quote John 3:16 right now and I would get nothing but negativity. Period. You can’t please everybody.

These sound like the rantings of a crazy person, not somebody who’s ready to battle through a forearm injury and deliver a bounce back season. Up to this point, Carl Crawford’s seven-year, $142 million contract has been considered the worst in Red Sox history. But depending on how Price fares in 2017, his seven-year, $217 million deal could threaten to usurp it.

[mvp 78]

There may be more to be concerned with about David Price than just his elbow. After reading the article, I don't find Price's replies as disturbing as the author does. Also, I don't agree with the authors concern that Price's contract could rival Carl Crawford's as a bust. Price did far more in 2016 than Crawford did over the life of his contract.

 

I'm trying to care about his responses to stupid questions, but I just can't. As long as he brings the chip on his shoulder to his starts, I'm fine with whatever.

[a700hitter]

I'm trying to care about his responses to stupid questions, but I just can't. As long as he brings the chip on his shoulder to his starts, I'm fine with whatever.

Agreed. I found nothing crazy or bizarre about his responses as the author characterized it.

[harmony]

There may be more to be concerned with about David Price than just his elbow. After reading the article, I don't find Price's replies as disturbing as the author does. Also, I don't agree with the authors concern that Price's contract could rival Carl Crawford's as a bust. Price did far more in 2016 than Crawford did over the life of his contract.

The link:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/03/07/coffee-and-conversation-with-david-price/4sQMfhJXyVLcB7B16jPDFJ/story.html

[cp176]

Agreed. I found nothing crazy or bizarre about his responses as the author characterized it.

 

I agree with both of you. (mvp + 700). Another writer trying to create controversy where none at all exists. I actually think that David Price understands how things work. I'm pretty sure that it isn't just in Boston either.

[rkarp1]

all that being said above, I would not mind one bit if he opts out when his first chance comes about. lets get the 3 years from him, and move on. year 1, inconclusive? nice peripherals, but not the results anyone expected? is he capable of more? or have we seen the best of Price and its in another teams uni?

[Fisk]

all that being said above, I would not mind one bit if he opts out when his first chance comes about. lets get the 3 years from him, and move on. year 1, inconclusive? nice peripherals, but not the results anyone expected? is he capable of more? or have we seen the best of Price and its in another teams uni?

 

Probably not going to opt out after the injury scare, can't imagine a team will guarantee him 4 years 120 million.

[Kimmi]

There may be more to be concerned with about David Price than just his elbow. After reading the article, I don't find Price's replies as disturbing as the author does. Also, I don't agree with the authors concern that Price's contract could rival Carl Crawford's as a bust. Price did far more in 2016 than Crawford did over the life of his contract.

 

I agree. I read that article earlier and didn't find anything to be concerned about with Price's responses.

[S5Dewey]

I don't understand Price ' s apparent ambivalence. He's right in that fans don't care about him beyond a humanitarian standpoint. But it's the nature of the relationship.

Price and all professional athletes are mercenaries. They're hired to play baseball. Along the way we may come to 'like' some of them but that's usually a product of how the conduct themselves on the field and how they contribute to non-baseball activities in tbe area.

 

There's an old saying, To have a friend, be a friend. We're a tough town. If Price wants us to be his friends he has to earn that $31M as well as be a bit more affable.

 

Or maybe he just needs a better PR agent.

[Jack Flap]

At a certain point, all of the bitching about Price being a bust, not a fit for Boston (whatever that means), the next Carl Crawford, and so on kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Some guys can tune out the noise from talk radio, social media, etc., but he does not seem to be one of those types. He takes that s*** personally and thinks all of Boston is out to get him, when in reality the vast majority realize he had a decent, not great, but certainly not terrible first year and are wishing and hoping nothing but the best for him moving forward.

 

I get that these guys make an absurd amount of money and the fans have expectations, as we should, but short of a player clearly and blatantly not giving a f*** about their performance (which certainly isn't Price), I just don't see the point in this sort of constant, sometimes vicious, negativity that will only serve to dissuade future stars from coming to this market. You'd think some people would have learned from the John Lackey saga, but perhaps not.

[Behindenemylines]

It might have been Price if his elbow issue had been worse, but replacing Big Papi's production is a concern I have. Year after year you pencil in 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. I just don't see where the Sox replace those numbers.

[Kimmi]

It might have been Price if his elbow issue had been worse, but replacing Big Papi's production is a concern I have. Year after year you pencil in 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. I just don't see where the Sox replace those numbers.

 

They won't completely replace those offensive numbers, but they won't have to.

 

They will make up the difference with better pitching.

[User Name]

At a certain point, all of the bitching about Price being a bust, not a fit for Boston (whatever that means), the next Carl Crawford, and so on kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Some guys can tune out the noise from talk radio, social media, etc., but he does not seem to be one of those types. He takes that s*** personally and thinks all of Boston is out to get him, when in reality the vast majority realize he had a decent, not great, but certainly not terrible first year and are wishing and hoping nothing but the best for him moving forward.

 

I get that these guys make an absurd amount of money and the fans have expectations, as we should, but short of a player clearly and blatantly not giving a f*** about their performance (which certainly isn't Price), I just don't see the point in this sort of constant, sometimes vicious, negativity that will only serve to dissuade future stars from coming to this market. You'd think some people would have learned from the John Lackey saga, but perhaps not.

 

You need to post more.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like 12 of us may have been right.