Jose Bautista

[moonslav59]

That's for the new CBA. Old rules exist this year. New CBA works for next year.

 

He'll be a FA under the new CBA.

[Nick]

all good points, but no one is discussing numbers

 

by all accounts the salary cap thresh hold for 2017 is $195m.

the RS per Spotrac sit at $168M (after Bucholz)

perhaps the RS have an internal budget that is not related to the salary cap

however, paying another player upwards of $10m does not put them in salary cap hell, not really even close

if they are "all in" they need another bat imo, with it being "risky" to assume Hanley will not show some regression based on his prior 5-6 year record, Benni might show some growing pains, Young's splits.

and it is not only Ortiz numbers that concern me;

 

I do expect Benni over a full year to progress

I do expect Boegardts to show some increased power numbers

 

I would be surprised if Betts had a BETTER year, and would be thrilled if he remained the same

I would have to say the same regarding JBJ

 

I feel Pedroia had his best season in quite some time, and regression should be expected

I also feel Hanley will show some regression

When available, Young played VERY well. Regression to norm should be expected

 

Who knows what Panda, Leon or Vaz will have to offer offensively

 

If a bat is available for $10m that is an upgrade, I am all for it....so the question put forth, what do you think Bautista signing price will be? is he an upgrade?

 

Your numbers are way off....Go to Cot's Baseball....

[FredLynn]

From what I hear, we are about $14M under the limit, but every time we call up a minor leaguer and pay him a MLB salary, we add a little. That means we really might have about $9-11M of flex space.

 

Your numbers leave out the player benefits payment of about $13M that counts against the luxury tax budget. Plus, payroll is different from average salary cost of each player.

 

Unless I am missing something the base salary our players are due so far is $165,506,400 and change+$14M in benefits=$179,500,000, roughly, If the LT is $195M we are still about $15.5M below the LT threshold. Thats a lot, and more than enough to get Joey Batts if thats who they want.

Edited December 29, 2016 by FredLynn

[moonslav59]

Unless I am missing something the base salary our players are due so far is $165,506,400 and change+$14M in benefits=$179,500,000, roughly, If the LT is $195M we are still about $15.5M below the LT threshold. Thats a lot, and more than enough to get Joey Batts if thats who they want.

 

It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used.

 

Alex Speier has us at $179.4M plus $1M for incentives and $4M for mid season depth call-ups to put us around $184M.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html

 

That leaves us $11M in flex spending.

 

That's plenty for the deadline to acquire 2 guys making $30M combined (seasonal), since the prorated cost would be $10M.

 

We reset the tax for next year and then can go over without paying a 50% tax. I think our next self imposed limit will be to stay under the $20M over the limit amount where a separate set of penalties kick in. I think we can do that pretty easily and pay all the key arb raises and maybe acquire one significant FA (or extend a star).

 

If we hadn't signed Moreland, I could see justifying going after JB, but not now.

[a700hitter]

Unless I am missing something the base salary our players are due so far is $165,506,400 and change+$14M in benefits=$179,500,000, roughly, If the LT is $195M we are still about $15.5M below the LT threshold. Thats a lot, and more than enough to get Joey Batts if thats who they want.

Go get him DD!

[rkarp1]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

[Bellhorn04]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

 

Cool, I didn't realize there was a tax tracker now. According to this we do have about 15.5 million to work with.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's assuming you make no further pickups from now until the end of the year. And I don't think they're accounting for arb raises

[Bellhorn04]

That's assuming you make no further pickups from now until the end of the year. And I don't think they're accounting for arb raises

 

Pickups aren't factored, but arb raises have been estimated - the numbers in italics are estimates. It's very good info.

[Emp9]

It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used.

 

I mess this up too.. like every year. So much so, that I really wished they changed it to what teams actually spend on the season at hand. To have two players, Bautista and Encarnacion both willing to work something out and not get either of them because "We can't afford you". The players got the union to worry about, the owners have the Luxury Tax Limit, and both worry about the actual market and the flash in the pan market trends. We're under and yet still can't work something out IS kinda weak if you think about it.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not "base salary" that is used for luxury tax purposes. The average yearly salary of the contract is the number used.

 

I mess this up too.. like every year. So much so, that I really wished they changed it to what teams actually spend on the season at hand. To have two players, Bautista and Encarnacion both willing to work something out and not get either of them because "We can't afford you". The players got the union to worry about, the owners have the Luxury Tax Limit, and both worry about the actual market and the flash in the pan market trends. We're under and yet still can't work something out IS kinda weak if you think about it.

 

Don't forget that signing Bautista would also cost our first-round draft pick. That's a big factor on top of the luxury tax concerns.

 

Still might happen though, who knows.

[notin]

Don't forget that signing Bautista would also cost our first-round draft pick. That's a big factor on top of the luxury tax concerns.

 

Still might happen though, who knows.

 

Picking up Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg cost the Sox 6 players likely to be in the BA Top 100. One late first round pick isn't going to restock the farm. So is Dombrowski all in or not?

 

It's actually very possible he just doesn't think Bautista is very good any more and last year where his overall play was basically a wash with Moreland (as both would fit on the Sox) is likely to be his immediate future. If so, the lineup is pretty much set.

 

However that does limit message board topics between now and February. ..

[Bellhorn04]

Picking up Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg cost the Sox 6 players likely to be in the BA Top 100. One late first round pick isn't going to restock the farm. So is Dombrowski all in or not?

 

Nobody is 'all in', that's just hyperbole. If we were really 'all in' we would have signed Encarnacion.

[S5Dewey]

One late round pick isn't going to restock the farm just like one player isn't going to replace Papi. But we have to start someplace, and the sooner the better.

[notin]

One late round pick isn't going to restock the farm just like one player isn't going to replace Papi. But we have to start someplace, and the sooner the better.

 

I tend to think given Dombrowski's history, the pick is less of a factor then his personal or staff's opinion of Bautista. This argument, while informative to me, is probably a non-issue...

[notin]

Nobody is 'all in', that's just hyperbole. If we were really 'all in' we would have signed Encarnacion.

 

True unless "all in" meant "all in up to the tax limit"

[S5Dewey]

I tend to think given Dombrowski's history, the pick is less of a factor then his personal or staff's opinion of Bautista. This argument, while informative to me, is probably a non-issue...

 

Then if it's a non issue why replace anyone at all unless we can replace all six of them at once, which probably isn't going to happen? You have to creep before you can walk.

[notin]

Then if it's a non issue why replace anyone at all unless we can replace all six of them at once, which probably isn't going to happen? You have to creep before you can walk.

 

I was referring to signing Bautista as a non-issue . I don't think it's going to happen. Not sure Dombrowski thinks he's an improvement over the current roster...

[S5Dewey]

I was referring to signing Bautista as a non-issue . I don't think it's going to happen. Not sure Dombrowski thinks he's an improvement over the current roster...

 

Ya. His OPS dropped almost 100 points last year. He could be on the decline. No way I'd pay any great amount for him. And apparently neither will any other GM.

[rkarp1]

it is fair to point to Bautista's OPS...but it was .817 in an injury season. Moreland's was .720 in a healthy season

 

I also understand you would not pay a great amount for him..but he is available at this time. what would you pay for him? and would he be an upgrade?

[S5Dewey]

it is fair to point to Bautista's OPS...but it was .817 in an injury season. Moreland's was .720 in a healthy season

 

I also understand you would not pay a great amount for him..but he is available at this time. what would you pay for him? and would he be an upgrade?

 

I wouldn't pay as much for him as I think someone else would, simply because I don't think we need him as badly as someone else would.

 

To answer your question more directly, according to Moon we have a cushion of ~$10M. If we could unload Abad's contract that would bring us to $12M and I'd be willing to pay Bautista half of that or $6M in a one year contract. BUT....

 

But that's in a situation where we needed him, and I don't see that we do. IMO picking him up at any reasonable cost would create two problems. It would create a logjam at 1B/DH with Hanley, Moreland, and Bautista and in addition it would create a second problem in that we'd have cut down on our flexibility in picking someone up at the deadline.

 

If we hadn't picked up Moreland I'd jump at Bautista, especially since now he must have realized that he's not going to get as much as he'd hoped for. As things are now I hesitate to say that I wouldn't pick him up at any cost, but I don't see a place for him unless we're planning on Beni flaming out - which I don't foresee.

 

That's pretty long-winded. Did I answer your question?

[moonslav59]

Pickups aren't factored, but arb raises have been estimated - the numbers in italics are estimates. It's very good info.

 

You also have to factor in call-ups during the year, of which there are often over 15. Some of these guys go from minor league salaries to minimum major league salaries and those raises count on the budget. Alex Speier projected $4M for this, and he seems to know about these things.

 

If the number is $4M and the arbs come out as projected, then we may have $10-11M in wiggle room remaining.

 

[moonslav59]

it is fair to point to Bautista's OPS...but it was .817 in an injury season. Moreland's was .720 in a healthy season

 

I also understand you would not pay a great amount for him..but he is available at this time. what would you pay for him? and would he be an upgrade?

 

Don't underestimate Moreland's defensive value at 1B vs JB's negative defensive value, and the fact that DH'ing HanRam vs RHPs might prevent injury or just keep his bat fresh for the long season.

 

If we hadn't signed Moreland, I could see this debate (or the one for EE previously) as having merit, but I'm with notin. I just don't think DD has any great interest in paying large (even if an underpay) for a DH type.

 

We already have 2 guys who look more like DHs than positional players: HanRam and Pablo. One could argue Young and Swihart fit the mold as well.

[mvp 78]

Not that I take a huge stock in clubhouse stuff, but a lot of MLB guys hate Joey Bats.

[raider_35_24]

Jose Bautista - OF - Blue Jays

MLB Network's Jon Morosi reports that the Blue Jays and the representatives for Jose Bautista are "engaged in active contract discussions."

Morosi tweeted earlier this month that the Jays had not made a formal proposal to Bautista since he rejected their one-year, $17.2 million qualifying offer in November, but that seems to have changed now. It's the rejected qualifying offer and the draft compensation that comes with it that has made life so difficult for Bautista on the free agent market. Toronto obviously wouldn't have to fork over a draft pick to re-sign him, though they'd also lose the opportunity to gain one.

[Nick]

I tend to think given Dombrowski's history, the pick is less of a factor then his personal or staff's opinion of Bautista. This argument, while informative to me, is probably a non-issue...

 

I think you are spot on about DD.

[a700hitter]

Not that I take a huge stock in clubhouse stuff, but a lot of MLB guys hate Joey Bats.

Rougned Odor says that he can take a pretty good punch.

[Kimmi]

Our team looks really good as is. I think it would make more sense to wait until midseason to see what the team's needs are, if any. It doesn't seem worth it to pick up Bautista for what might amount to be little or no improvement, especially if it turns out that we didn't need him.

[notin]

Rougned Odor says that he can take a pretty good punch.

 

Darren O'Day also has issues wIth him.

[moonslav59]

Our team looks really good as is. I think it would make more sense to wait until midseason to see what the team's needs are, if any. It doesn't seem worth it to pick up Bautista for what might amount to be little or no improvement, especially if it turns out that we didn't need him.

 

What we lose on defense at 1B vs any gain we may get by using Bautista at DH instead of basically a Moreland-Young platoon is not worth the money we pay and the loss of flexibility.

 

What if we sign JB and then we have a major injury at a position of limited depth? With no flex money, we'll end up going over the limit just to get a possible slight gain.

 

I want $6.5M Young playing vs LHPs at DH not riding the bench. I want HanRam at DH vs RHPs not at 1B full time. I don't want a $5.5M Moreland on the bench almost everyday. While I do t2hink JB is better than Moreland vs RHPs, I like Young better vs LHPs, and the loss at 1B defense makes it pretty close to even value to me.

 

I don't see JB as a big plus.