Jose Bautista

[notin]

Think Dombrowski goes after him? All the speculation on MLB Network is that Jose is garnering has no interest from anyone and will likely settle for a one year deal.

 

And since Dombrowski seems to like tbe idea of going all in when you're close, isn't Bautsta more "all in" than Mitch Moreland?

 

I know he will cost a first round pick. But when you've already dealt a top ten prospect and a major leaguer for Tyler Thornburg, is a late first round pick really a stumbling block here?

 

If Bautista is still available mid-January, I would be surprised if Dombrowski didn't make a move...

[Bellhorn04]

He'll not only cost a first round pick, but there will be 50% luxury tax on whatever his salary is.

[Nick]

Unless he can play 3rd, I'd say NO

[Bellhorn04]

I can't see it. I think Hanley will DH against RH starters and play some 1B against LH starters with Young DH'ing against LH starters.

[notin]

He'll not only cost a first round pick, but there will be 50% luxury tax on whatever his salary is.

 

If Buchholz is dealt then there may not be. Especially if he takes some crazy Nelson Cruz type deal...

[notin]

I can't see it. I think Hanley will DH against RH starters and play some 1B against LH starters with Young DH'ing against LH starters.

 

In 2014, no one wanted Nelson Cruz. He signed a one year $8mill deal with Baltimore. He went on to have a terrific season.

 

If no one wants Bautista, you don't think he will be worth a similar deal? Or do you think the Sox are better off Moreland and Young?

[cp176]

I don't see it happening but I do think that adding one more real power bat would help. For the record, I am not interested in seeing how many runs we scored last year again. I am much more interested in where we find the 50 plus home runs and the rbi's that go with them come from this year. Not last year - last year=old news.

[Jack Flap]

I'm game if they can make the money work out. I care less about the 1st round pick than I might have a few weeks ago...the farm is going to be s*** for a while anyway, so we might as well make it worthwhile by going all-in for a ring.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2014, no one wanted Nelson Cruz. He signed a one year $8mill deal with Baltimore. He went on to have a terrific season.

 

If no one wants Bautista, you don't think he will be worth a similar deal? Or do you think the Sox are better off Moreland and Young?

 

I agree with you, the possibility of it happening exists.

[moonslav59]

I'm game if they can make the money work out. I care less about the 1st round pick than I might have a few weeks ago...the farm is going to be s*** for a while anyway, so we might as well make it worthwhile by going all-in for a ring.

 

We could have gotten a good bat without losing a pick and with just a one year gamble: Beltran.

 

Not signing him and then signing Moreland is a sign, to me, that we are not going large at DH this winter.

[oldtimer]

I don't see it happening but I do think that adding one more real power bat would help. For the record, I am not interested in seeing how many runs we scored last year again. I am much more interested in where we find the 50 plus home runs and the rbi's that go with them come from this year. Not last year - last year=old news.

 

I am hopeful we get a better year out of JBJ and Pablo can at least be average from him. Lot to hope for but some like Betts and Pedroia may fall off of last year leaving us needing more hitting. But where would someone like Bautista fit into the lineup?

 

I am reading a book "3 Nights in August"' Buzz Bissinger. The book centers on LaRussa and the deep thinking a manager goes through. In the Preface and Prologue some interesting comments about how resistant to change players are. What they perceive got them to the majors can't be changed, even when it's not working! They have to warm up the same way, approach the plate the same way, even to the point of not stepping on the chalk line in the batters box. Those comments seem to apply to JBJ, who got into a long looping swing and never moved away from it at years end. I am hoping he will redirect and get back to making better contact.

[Dojji]

I just don't see a fit here.

[southpaw777]

Nope. Not a good fit IMHO

[Jack Flap]

We could have gotten a good bat without losing a pick and with just a one year gamble: Beltran.

 

Not signing him and then signing Moreland is a sign, to me, that we are not going large at DH this winter.

 

True. To be clear, I don't see it happening, I just wish we'd added a bit more offense than we have. Moreland will be serviceable, but I still think the loss of Papi will make more of a dent than people seem to believe.

[moonslav59]

True. To be clear, I don't see it happening, I just wish we'd added a bit more offense than we have. Moreland will be serviceable, but I still think the loss of Papi will make more of a dent than people seem to believe.

 

I don't wish we add a big contract that will limit future signings and extensions of our great players of youth.

[Orange Juiced]

Think Dombrowski goes after him? All the speculation on MLB Network is that Jose is garnering has no interest from anyone and will likely settle for a one year deal.

 

And since Dombrowski seems to like tbe idea of going all in when you're close, isn't Bautsta more "all in" than Mitch Moreland?

 

I know he will cost a first round pick. But when you've already dealt a top ten prospect and a major leaguer for Tyler Thornburg, is a late first round pick really a stumbling block here?

 

If Bautista is still available mid-January, I would be surprised if Dombrowski didn't make a move...

 

2016 numbers:

 

Hanley: 30 hr, .286/.361/.505/.866, 124 ops+

Bautista: 22 hr, .234/.366/.452/.817, 117 ops+

Young: 9 hr (just 203 ab), .276/.352/.498/.850, 120 ops+

 

Vs. LHP

Hanley: .346/.420/.677/1.097

Bautista: .220/.324/.429/.752

Young: .329/.410/.589/.999

 

Here's how they're currently constructed:

 

Vs. RHP

1b Moreland

DH Hanley

 

Vs. LHP

1b Hanley

DH Young

 

Young's splits are better vs. LHP than Bautista's are. Bautista could only DH or play LF/RF, but they're set in the OF with Benintendi, Bradley, and Betts. Bautista wouldn't DH against righties because Hanley is, at present, a better hitter than Joey Bats is.

 

So where, exactly, would the 36 year old and declining Bautista play? And for all that wondering, you'd have to pay $$ *and* give up a first-round pick for the privilege?

 

Long story short, no, I don't think there's any way that DD goes after him.

[moonslav59]

So where, exactly, would the 36 year old and declining Bautista play?

 

I'm not for getting him at all, but in theory, he'd DH vs RHPs. He'd be way better than Moreland at the plate.

 

Bautista vs RHPs in 2016: .376 OBP and .834 OPS.

 

We'd never sign a guy like him to platoon, so it's not happening.

 

I agree, Young's our DH vs LHPs. HanRam and maybe a couple players needing a rest here and there will DH vs RHPs, and Moreland will play 1B vs RHPs only. HanRam vs LHPs and some RHPs.

[Slasher9]

only if we flip moreland out. although that would be DD admitting he made a mistake on moreland to begin with. so i dont see this happening at all.

[OH FOY]

People are ticked off about giving up Minor Leaguers, but aren't you doing same thing if you sign JB for 1 year, and lose a 1st Rounder. Double whammy to me. You need to keep your 1st Round Picks.

[mvp 78]

Not interested. He seems to be on the decline.

[Kingface]

There is ZERO way they go over the luxury limit.....so no. They are pretty much done as far as any big moves.

[sk7326]

No way - and he has a QO on him iirc. If you want to get a past prime bat - offer the Rox a sack of potatoes for Carlos Gonzalez who only has a year attached to him.

[Spudboy]

True. To be clear, I don't see it happening, I just wish we'd added a bit more offense than we have. Moreland will be serviceable, but I still think the loss of Papi will make more of a dent than people seem to believe.

 

I agree.

[mvp 78]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting

 

This team could get 100 less runs without Papi and they'd still be a top 5 offensive team. The problem with this team is the pitching, not the offense.

[mvp 78]

The last time the Sox were out of the top 10 in runs scored was that putrid 2001 team.

[moonslav59]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting

 

This team could get 100 less runs without Papi and they'd still be a top 5 offensive team. The problem with this team is the pitching, not the offense.

 

The problem "WAS" pitching.

 

Our staff did great to end the 2016 season, even without Wright and Pomeranz for much of it. We also had no Carson Smith all year.

 

We lost Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa and gained Sale and Thornburg plus, in theory, returning injured players and a full season of Pom.

 

We look to be a top 3 offense, a top 3 pitching staff, and maybe a top 5 defensive team with Beni in LF and Moreland in 1B. Pablo's D is the wild card. He used to be plus, then he was as bad as bad gets in 2015.

[moonslav59]

The last time the Sox were out of the top 10 in runs scored was that putrid 2001 team.

 

With the park factor, being number 10 might be more like number 12 or 13.

 

Away stats are not perfect, but they do show how good your offense is without a park factoring heavily into the numbers.

 

2012-2016 Away runs scored:

 

Red Sox 8th with 1775 (3rd place 1818/ 5th place 1809

 

FYI Home numbers:

 

Red Sox second (2072) to COL (5th place 1900)

[mvp 78]

The problem "WAS" pitching.

 

Our staff did great to end the 2016 season, even without Wright and Pomeranz for much of it. We also had no Carson Smith all year.

 

We lost Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa and gained Sale and Thornburg plus, in theory, returning injured players and a full season of Pom.

 

We look to be a top 3 offense, a top 3 pitching staff, and maybe a top 5 defensive team with Beni in LF and Moreland in 1B. Pablo's D is the wild card. He used to be plus, then he was as bad as bad gets in 2015.

 

In a perfect world the following happens:

Betts remains an MVP candidate

Bogey and JBJ don't go through prolonged slumps

Beni is "the real deal"

Hanley repeats his 2016 performance

Pablo is an average 3b

Pedey stays healthy for the whole season

Price gets a little better

Porcello pitches similar to last year

Sale doesn't take too much of a hit coming to Boston

Kimbrel stays healthy and doesn't blow up

Carson Smith gets healthy and pitches to career norms

 

I'm not sure anything else on this roster matters enough to wring my hands over.

[moonslav59]

Away Runs scored in 2016:

 

424 STL

419 Cubs

401 BOS

398 SEA & WSH

390 HOU

380 LAA

375 LAD

 

Losing Papi could drop us down a lot on this list, but I think with Beni, Leon and Pablo for a full year, we'll still be top 5 in away runs scored.

 

 

[moonslav59]

In a perfect world the following happens:

Betts remains an MVP candidate

Bogey and JBJ don't go through prolonged slumps

Beni is "the real deal"

Hanley repeats his 2016 performance

Pablo is an average 3b

Pedey stays healthy for the whole season

Price gets a little better

Porcello pitches similar to last year

Sale doesn't take too much of a hit coming to Boston

Kimbrel stays healthy and doesn't blow up

Carson Smith gets healthy and pitches to career norms

 

I'm not sure anything else on this roster matters enough to wring my hands over.

 

The rest of the roster could, however, make up for 2-4 of these things not going as wished.