2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[southpaw777]

I was a big fan of new Yankee Matt Holliday in his prime but ...

 

Compare the 2016 lines of Holliday and another righthand-hitting free agent, Chris Carter:

 

MH 426 PA, .246/.322/.461/.783, OPS+ 107, wRC+ 109, fWAR 0.7

CC 644 PA, .222/.321/.499/.821, OPS+ 114, wRC+ 112, fWAR 0.9

 

Holliday turns 37 years old in January and Carter turns 30 this month.

And Carter is all or none...200Ks a year...pass. Both guys are not worth much IMHO

[southpaw777]

I think we look for a LH'd platoon DH with Young as the RH'd DH.

 

Lind, Alvarez, Moss or others could come relatively cheap.

 

Wouldnt mind Moss as a cheaper alternative for a power bat from the left side. He kills RHP.

[southpaw777]

Moon, I'm at it again with Clay Buchholz.

 

Would anyone trade one year of 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for one year of 34-year-old Seattle outfielder Seth Smith to serve in a designated hitter platoon with Chris Young?

 

The lefthand-hitting Smith, who will earn $7 million next season, has posted a .272/.355/.472/.827 career line against righthanders, including a .256/.351/.431/.782 line this year. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.2 in 486 plate appearances and Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts.

 

The deal would save the Red Sox $6.5 million off the 2017 payroll.

 

No...we NEED pitching depth

[moonslav59]

Wouldnt mind Moss as a cheaper alternative for a power bat from the left side. He kills RHP.

 

Brandon Moss:.319 OBP and .472 SLG% career vs RHPs. However, he did have a .525 SLG% vs RHPs this year but a .303 OBP. He was much worse in 2015.

[S5Dewey]

No...we NEED pitching depth

 

I think I once heard someone say "You can't have too much pitching".

[Dojji]

Good by Travis Shaw.

 

Hello, Tyler Thornburg

 

http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/brewers-trade-thornburg-red-sox-shaw/57876

 

Not thrilled. Thornburg's a pretty sharp looking reliever, but we just punched a big hole in our corner infield depth and are far too dependent on Panda at the moment at third base, especially since we also traded one of our minor league depth options at the position (Dubon) in the same deal.

[Wade Boggs]

Brandon Moss:.319 OBP and .472 SLG% career vs RHPs. However, he did have a .525 SLG% vs RHPs this year but a .303 OBP. He was much worse in 2015.

 

You forgot about Mitch Moreland between Sox and Cleveland.

[moonslav59]

You forgot about Mitch Moreland between Sox and Cleveland.

 

I listed him on another thread as a possibility along with Lind, Alvarez and Morrison.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

MLB Rumor Central: Mariners to check availability of Drew Pomeranz, Clay Buchholz?

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/32211/mlb-rumor-central-mariners-to-check-availability-of-drew-pomeranz-clay-buchholz

 

I was looking over the Mariners farm system:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sea

 

I doubt the Mariners move Kyle Lewis. Luiz Gohara is an interesting prospect.

[harmony]

MLB Rumor Central: Mariners to check availability of Drew Pomeranz, Clay Buchholz?

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/32211/mlb-rumor-central-mariners-to-check-availability-of-drew-pomeranz-clay-buchholz

 

I was looking over the Mariners farm system:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sea

 

I doubt the Mariners move Kyle Lewis. Luiz Gohara is an interesting prospect.

The Mariners won't trade Kyle Lewis or Luiz Gohara for one year of 32-year-old Clay Buchholz, who has limited surplus value with his $13.5 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 as a starter (before being revised down to 0.5 WAR in 37 innings following Tuesday's trade for Chris Sale):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

[harmony]

Moon, I'm at it again with Clay Buchholz.

 

Would anyone trade one year of 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for one year of 34-year-old Seattle outfielder Seth Smith to serve in a designated hitter platoon with Chris Young?

 

The lefthand-hitting Smith, who will earn $7 million next season, has posted a .272/.355/.472/.827 career line against righthanders, including a .256/.351/.431/.782 line this year. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.2 in 486 plate appearances and Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts.

 

The deal would save the Red Sox $6.5 million off the 2017 payroll.

Jon Heyman reports that Seth Smith was nearly traded to Boston before the Red Sox signed Mitch Moreland:

 

 

Smith is the better hitter but Moreland is the better defender. Here are Steamer's 2017 projections for Smith and Moreland:

 

SS 486 PA, .250/.337/.418/.755, wRC+ 108, WAR 1.2

MM 502 PA, .255/.320/.435/.755, wRC+ 96, WAR 0.7

 

Moreland added $5.5 million to the Red Sox payroll while a trade of Clay Buchholz for Smith would have reduced the payroll by $6.5 million. But the Red Sox now retain Buchholz as an asset.

Edited December 7, 2016 by harmony

[mvp 78]

They are not trading Buchholz before opening day.

[moonslav59]

The Mariners won't trade Kyle Lewis or Luiz Gohara for one year of 32-year-old Clay Buchholz, who has limited surplus value with his $13.5 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 as a starter (before being revised down to 0.5 WAR in 37 innings following Tuesday's trade for Chris Sale):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

 

While I agree those trades won't happen, listing the reduction in projected WAR due to fewer innings does not take away from his projected value to the M's.

[moonslav59]

They are not trading Buchholz before opening day.

 

It's doubtful.

 

We can wait until the deadline, if we have to, and the amount saved (~$4.5M) by trading him then for no return salary would be just barely enough to get us under the luxury limit.

 

If we trade him this winter, we may save up to $13.5M off the luxury limit- gicing us about an $8M cushion, but we lose the "cushion" of having a possible quality 6/7 starter on the roster.

[oldtimer]

They are not trading Buchholz before opening day.

 

That's a pretty definitive statement. I would think DD is more flexible and would consider any offers that add value to our club.

[Dojji]

They are not trading Buchholz before opening day.

 

And I didn't think we'd trade for Chris Sale

 

Never underestimate DD's willingness to pull the trigger if he feels he's got the right deal in front of him. This ain't your slightly older brother's Red Sox FO.

[harmony]

While I agree those trades won't happen, listing the reduction in projected WAR due to fewer innings does not take away from his projected value to the M's.

I agree, which is why I offered his Steamer projection before the Chris Sale trade.

[moonslav59]

I agree, which is why I offered his Steamer projection before the Chris Sale trade.

 

Yes, and I still think you secretly think Buch would do great with the M's this year. You just don't want to pay (in trade) dearly for him.

[harmony]

Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.

[Kimmi]

They are not trading Buchholz before opening day.

 

With the acquisition of Sale, I think there's a very good chance of Buchholz being traded before Opening Day.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW Cafardo says the Sox are getting a lot of calls, not on Buch but on Pomeranz, which makes sense.

[sk7326]

FWIW Cafardo says the Sox are getting a lot of calls, not on Buch but on Pomeranz, which makes sense.

 

I could see him being moved - possibly to back up some of the prospect depth lost. He has value as a mid rotation starter or a prime closer conversion candidate if a team is so inclined..

[moonslav59]

Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.

 

What Buch has that hardly any MLB pitcher has, is the proven ability to have extended (but not too long) streaks of near best of the best numbers. Injury issues and Inconsistency when healthy makes him a wildcard gamble, but he has already proven his upside, unlike many others.

 

Out of 5210 season samples sizes of MLB starters with over 100 IP in a given season since 1974, here's how two of Buchs' seasons rank in ERA-:

 

1 Pedro 35 -2000

2 Maddux 37 -1994

3 Maddux 39 -1995

4 Buchholz 42 -2013

5 Pedro 42 -1999

15 Clemens 45 -1997

18 Pedro 48 -2003

20 Pedro 50 -2002

28 Pedro 53 -2001

34 Buchholz 53 -2010 (22nd out of 3051 pitchers with 170+ IP)

 

Only Kershaw and Buch has been in the top 35 twice since Pedro.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I could see him being moved - possibly to back up some of the prospect depth lost. He has value as a mid rotation starter or a prime closer conversion candidate if a team is so inclined..

 

Can we cancel the Pom-Espi trade now?

[harmony]

What Buch has that hardly any MLB pitcher has, is the proven ability to have extended (but not too long) streaks of near best of the best numbers. Injury issues and Inconsistency when healthy makes him a wildcard gamble, but he has already proven his upside, unlike many others.

 

Out of 5210 season samples sizes of MLB starters with over 100 IP in a given season since 1974, here's how two of Buchs' seasons rank in ERA-:

 

1 Pedro 35 -2000

2 Maddux 37 -1994

3 Maddux 39 -1995

4 Buchholz 42 -2013

5 Pedro 42 -1999

15 Clemens 45 -1997

18 Pedro 48 -2003

20 Pedro 50 -2002

28 Pedro 53 -2001

34 Buchholz 53 -2010 (22nd out of 3051 pitchers with 170+ IP)

 

Only Kershaw and Buch has been in the top 35 twice since Pedro.

 

 

Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters.

[moonslav59]

Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters.

 

Ain't that the truth!

 

That's why I'm suggesting a trade.

[Bellhorn04]

Can we cancel the Pom-Espi trade now?

 

Stop. You don't have to say it 1,000 times.

[Emp9]

Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.

 

You know you want Buchholz. We'll throw in Abad...

[moonslav59]

Stop. You don't have to say it 1,000 times.

 

Yeah, but now more of you guys might agree.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, but now more of you guys might agree.

 

I don't hear anyone else mentioning it much.