A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[sk7326]

The first Uehara was not a big splash signing. I think he got $4.5M x 2.

 

My point was more about all MLB big splash signings. Hardly any are clear success stories.

 

I was against the HanRam signing at the time. I would not do the HanRam signing again, if we could go back.

 

Fairly short years - we knew he could hit (that was the big surprise of his 2015 - that he didn't hit at all). Money is sort of a who cares - if John Henry wants to lay it out, hooray.

[moonslav59]

Fairly short years - we knew he could hit (that was the big surprise of his 2015 - that he didn't hit at all). Money is sort of a who cares - if John Henry wants to lay it out, hooray.

 

Actually, HanRam has had a few bad years scattered over his career, It should not have been a a big surprise.

[harmony]

Do you ever have anything positive to say about the Red Sox or their players though? Honest question.

 

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

Maybe not the best choice, but we need depth. I hope we have better in the works.

 

I would not have minded if my Mariners had signed Kyle Kendrick, a Seattle-area product, to a minor league contract to provide rotation depth.

 

Behind the current projected starting five, the Mariners have 28-year-old lefthander Ariel Miranda, who posted an ERA of 3.44 in 10 starts last year; nearly 29-year-old righthander Chris Heston, who two years ago posted an ERA of 3.95 in 31 starts, including a no-hitter; and nearly 23-year-old righthander Rob Whalen, who last year was roughed up in five MLB starts after five solid years in the minors.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18029-2017-Rotation?p=1046255#post1046255

 

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post

I was betting on 1.5 at about 100 IP. I'd take the over on 2.0 at 200 IP for sure.

 

ZiPS projects Steven Wright with a 2017 WAR of 2.0 in 122 innings:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17991-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-I?p=1046063#post1046063

 

Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post

And how do the other outfielders compare for both teams?

That should be an easy question for most posters to research.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 outfield WAR of 11.1 for the Red Sox and 5.9 for the Seattle Mariners.

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17790-The-Benintendi-Thread?p=1046055#post1046055

Edited January 31, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Harmony is about as neutral as one can be.

 

On a site full of optimistic Red Sox fans, one can expect a neutral voice offering a more level viewpoint to appear negative.

[Bellhorn04]

Harmony is about as neutral as one can be.

 

On a site full of optimistic Red Sox fans, one can expect a neutral voice offering a more level viewpoint to appear negative.

 

You have to watch him though, as with his comparison of Olerud and Grace to Papi on the other thread.

[moonslav59]

You have to watch him though, as with his comparison of Olerud and Grace to Papi on the other thread.

 

He's a WAR freak, but at least he uses it consistently.

 

I responded to his comp of Papi to Olerud & Grace by mentioning that WAR deducts for positional value of a DH.

 

Player Batting Positional Base running Fielding Total WAR

 

Ortiz 483.3 -236.2 -78.0 -12.3 50.5

 

Olerud 341.6 -144.2 -19.6 +98.8 57.3

 

Grace 226.6 -133.2 -12.5 +70.5 45.5

 

I don't want to get into the value of 1B defense, but comparing a DH to a 1Bman using WAR is like comparing apples to oranges. I realize WAR deducts for positional value of a 1Bman too, but not as much as a FT DH.

 

Papi's batting blows those two away. Even if you add base running, it's...

 

405.3 Papi

 

322.0 Olerud

 

214.2 Grace

 

[harmony]

He's a WAR freak, but at least he uses it consistently.

 

I responded to his comp of Papi to Olerud & Grace by mentioning that WAR deducts for positional value of a DH.

 

Player Batting Positional Base running Fielding Total WAR

 

Ortiz 483.3 -236.2 -78.0 -12.3 50.5

 

Olerud 341.6 -144.2 -19.6 +98.8 57.3

 

Grace 226.6 -133.2 -12.5 +70.5 45.5

 

I don't want to get into the value of 1B defense, but comparing a DH to a 1Bman using WAR is like comparing apples to oranges. I realize WAR deducts for positional value of a 1Bman too, but not as much as a FT DH.

 

Papi's batting blows those two away. Even if you add base running, it's...

 

405.3 Papi

 

322.0 Olerud

 

214.2 Grace

 

Perhaps a better comparison would be David Ortiz, who played 2,162 innings in the field, and Edgar Martinez, who played 4,829 innings in the field, focusing on their hitting numbers:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martied01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1086&position=3B/DH

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps a better comparison would be David Ortiz, who played 2,162 innings in the field, and Edgar Martinez, who played 4,829 innings in the field, focusing on their hitting numbers:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martied01.shtml

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1086&position=3B/DH

 

Or not.

 

Edgar deserves to be in the conversation with Papi. He was a beast!

[moonslav59]

Any comp to Papi should be about offense:

 

Edgar (8672 PAs)

.418 OBP

.515 SLG

.923 OPS

147 OPS+

147 wRC+

.405 wOBA

.873 OPS in the playoffs (148 PAs)

 

Ortiz

.380 OBP

.552 SLG

.931 OPS (Better than Edgar, but OBP > SLG, so I call it about even)

141 OPS+

140 wRC+

.392 wOBA

.947 OPS in the playoffs (369 PAs)

 

All the numbers, except the playoff data, favor Edgar. Certainly, this is a fair comp.

 

 

[S5Dewey]

You have to watch him though, as with his comparison of Olerud and Grace to Papi on the other thread.

 

As was once said, if you want to find an purple 2-toed elephant Harmony will find one for you.

 

My issue is that Harmony isn't here to discuss baseball. His focus is on finding those elephants and then using them in an effort to discredit the Red Sox.

 

Me? I take everything he posts with a grain of salt. I keep waiting for Paul Harvey to give us "the rest of the story".

[moonslav59]

His focus is on finding those elephants and then using them in an effort to discredit the Red Sox.

 

I'm not really into knowing what other fans are saying about their clubs, so it's hard for me to understand why harmony comes here. I've always figured I'll give anyone the benefit of the doubt, until they show me differently. I've read harmony's posts for many many years (some on the old BDC site), and I've never felt he was out to undermine our players. He's an M's fan, so he's not going to sugar coat Sox players like many of us do. When some of us get over exuberant about a player or our team in general, he's there to show a more balanced or unbiased point of view. I get annoyed by the over reliance on WAR and projected WAR, but at least it is supposed to be a neutral data source used to compare a player's value with others in the league.

 

I usually could care less what M's player has a similar WAR or projected WAR as our player does, but it does open my eyes to the possibility that I have been over valuing our players. I'm fine with that. I just don't see it as "discrediting", since he hardly ever (if ever) cherry picks stats to undermine our players.

 

 

 

[harmony]

I'm not really into knowing what other fans are saying about their clubs, so it's hard for me to understand why harmony comes here. I've always figured I'll give anyone the benefit of the doubt, until they show me differently. I've read harmony's posts for many many years (some on the old BDC site), and I've never felt he was out to undermine our players. He's an M's fan, so he's not going to sugar coat Sox players like many of us do. When some of us get over exuberant about a player or our team in general, he's there to show a more balanced or unbiased point of view. I get annoyed by the over reliance on WAR and projected WAR, but at least it is supposed to be a neutral data source used to compare a player's value with others in the league.

 

I usually could care less what M's player has a similar WAR or projected WAR as our player does, but it does open my eyes to the possibility that I have been over valuing our players. I'm fine with that. I just don't see it as "discrediting", since he hardly ever (if ever) cherry picks stats to undermine our players.

In my recent comp of Hanley Ramirez and Seattle's Danny Valencia I could have cherry-picked their stats for only the past two seasons when Ramirez posted an OPS+ of 110 in 252 games while Valencia posted an OPS+ of 126 in 235 games.

 

However, being arguably the most objective contributor to this forum, I thought the three-year sample presented a fairer picture: Ramirez OPS+ 117 in 380 games, Valencia OPS+ 116 in 321 games.

 

The comp received this response in a FanGraphs chat on Monday:

1:27

harmony: Over the past three seasons Boston’s Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 117 in 380 games (including an OPS+ of 89 in 2015) while Seattle’s Danny Valencia has an OPS+ of 116 in 393 games over the same period (including an OPS+ of 87 in 2014). As defensively challenged righthanded hitters born nine months apart, how different are Ramirez and Valencia?

 

1:28

Travis Sawchik: Apparently there isn’t much difference outside of name value! …. I still like a healthy and motivated Hanley (when he’s batting)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-2/

Edited January 31, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

In my recent comp of Hanley Ramirez and Seattle's Danny Valencia I could have cherry-picked their stats for only the past two seasons when Ramirez posted an OPS+ of 110 in 252 games while Valencia posted an OPS+ of 126 in 235 games.

 

However, being arguably the most objective contributor to this forum, I thought the three-year sample presented a fairer picture: Ramirez OPS+ 117 in 380 games, Valencia OPS+ 116 in 321 games.

 

The comp received this response in a FanGraphs chat on Monday:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-2/

 

I will say, the OPS+ stat is not usually your comp tool.

 

DV has way less PAs with only one season over 378 PAs since 2011.

 

WAR Comp over the last 3 years combined:

HR: 4.2 (6.0 without 2015)

DV: 3.7

 

Projected:

HR: 2.0, 1.6, 2.1

DV: 0.4, 0.6, 1.4

[sk7326]

Any comp to Papi should be about offense:

 

Edgar (8672 PAs)

.418 OBP

.515 SLG

.923 OPS

147 OPS+

147 wRC+

.405 wOBA

.873 OPS in the playoffs (148 PAs)

 

Ortiz

.380 OBP

.552 SLG

.931 OPS (Better than Edgar, but OBP > SLG, so I call it about even)

141 OPS+

140 wRC+

.392 wOBA

.947 OPS in the playoffs (369 PAs)

 

All the numbers, except the playoff data, favor Edgar. Certainly, this is a fair comp.

 

 

 

Martinez' production was fairly low variability to - until the very end, he was a ridiculously good hitter.

 

Ortiz had a 3 year stretch where he seriously lost it - which I do think people tend to forget. It makes the autumn of his career remarkable of course.

[harmony]

I will say, the OPS+ stat is not usually your comp tool.

 

DV has way less PAs with only one season over 378 PAs since 2011.

 

WAR Comp over the last 3 years combined:

HR: 4.2 (6.0 without 2015)

DV: 3.7

 

Projected:

HR: 2.0, 1.6, 2.1

DV: 0.4, 0.6, 1.4

My original comp of Hanley Ramirez and Danny Valencia, on Page 201 of this thread, listed those three-year WAR and projected WAR.

[moonslav59]

My original comp of Hanley Ramirez and Danny Valencia, on Page 201 of this thread, listed those three-year WAR and projected WAR.

 

Fair enough.

 

I have no issues with what you bring to this site.

 

I'm glad you're here.

 

Is there not much chatter on the M's site?

[User Name]

In my recent comp of Hanley Ramirez and Seattle's Danny Valencia I could have cherry-picked their stats for only the past two seasons when Ramirez posted an OPS+ of 110 in 252 games while Valencia posted an OPS+ of 126 in 235 games.

 

However, being arguably the most objective contributor to this forum, I thought the three-year sample presented a fairer picture: Ramirez OPS+ 117 in 380 games, Valencia OPS+ 116 in 321 games.

 

The comp received this response in a FanGraphs chat on Monday:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-2/

 

You are not particularly objective when your constant put-downs of the Sox but ogling over Mariners (who haven't made the playoffs in how many years?) players is observed carefully.

 

Also, you did not answer my question.

[harmony]

You are not particularly objective when your constant put-downs of the Sox but ogling over Mariners (who haven't made the playoffs in how many years?) players is observed carefully.

 

Also, you did not answer my question.

This question?

 

Do you ever have anything positive to say about the Red Sox or their players though? Honest question.

 

Honest answer: Yes

 

On Page 203 of this thread, I provided three recent examples in my answer to your question.

[harmony]

Fair enough.

 

I have no issues with what you bring to this site.

 

I'm glad you're here.

 

Is there not much chatter on the M's site?

Thanks, moonslav59

 

The Seattle Times forum is probably busier than this site:

 

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=22

 

Over at SB Nation, Lookout Landing and Over the Monster probably have similar traffic:

 

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/

 

U.S.S. Mariner has slowed down significantly since the Dave Cameron days:

 

http://www.ussmariner.com/

Prospect Insider plugs along:

 

http://prospectinsider.com/

 

Shannon Drayer's blogs attract responses:

 

http://sports.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners-blog/

 

My favorite Mariners beat reporter is the Tacoma News-Tribune's Bob Dutton, former president of the Baseball Writers' Association of America:

 

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article129618024.html

 

[moonslav59]

Thanks, moonslav59

 

The Seattle Times forum is probably busier than this site:

 

http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=22

 

Over at SB Nation, Lookout Landing and Over the Monster probably have similar traffic:

 

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/

 

U.S.S. Mariner has slowed down significantly since the Dave Cameron days:

 

http://www.ussmariner.com/

Prospect Insider plugs along:

 

http://prospectinsider.com/

 

Shannon Drayer's blogs attract responses:

 

http://sports.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners-blog/

 

My favorite Mariners beat reporter is the Tacoma News-Tribune's Bob Dutton, former president of the Baseball Writers' Association of America:

 

http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article129618024.html

 

 

Wow, you're a world traveler!

 

Anyway, from what I can see, I think the M's might surprise some people. The Cano-Cruz-Felix train will not be running at full steam much longer. It might be now or never.

 

My head is spinning from all the transactions going on your way.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Defeat Fernando Abad In Arbitration

By Jeff Todd | January 31, 2017 at 9:50am CDT

 

The Red Sox have announced that an arbitration panel found in the team’s favor after a hearing against lefty Fernando Abad. He’ll earn the team’s submitted salary of $2MM, instead of the $2.7MM that he sought.

 

I'd trade him and add the surplus to our summer spending pool.

[moonslav59]

Other Sox RP'ers vs LHBs:

 

Sox Pen vs LHBs in 2016 (OPS against):

.413 Thornburg (.531 career) with Milwaukee

.461 Abad

.500 R Scott

.514 Kimbrel

.545 R Ross

.741 Barnes

.890 Hembree

.899 J Kelly

 

 

 

[Nick]

Red Sox Defeat Fernando Abad In Arbitration

By Jeff Todd | January 31, 2017 at 9:50am CDT

 

The Red Sox have announced that an arbitration panel found in the team’s favor after a hearing against lefty Fernando Abad. He’ll earn the team’s submitted salary of $2MM, instead of the $2.7MM that he sought.

 

I'd trade him and add the surplus to our summer spending pool.

 

Interesting that so many pitchers struggle initially for the Sox. I thought Scott did just fine when he was called up. I guess there's a comfort in numbers. Have about dozen relievers ready for the bullpen.

[Emp9]

It was hard to know back then that the cost of sluggers would fall so much, so to me, the signing looks much worse in hindsight. (i.e. I'd rather have EE than HanRam.)

 

But, I'm not talking hindsight. The deal was not good at the time. It was better than the Pablo deal, and at the time, I argued I'd rather have HanRam at 3B than Pablo. There was no need for both.

 

Signing Scherzer made more sense.

 

I think I'd still take HanRam over EE. A healthy HanRam that is, 'cause I just think he's a better overall hitter than EE (although I like EE a lot).

 

I agree Scherzer made more sense. I would've went hardcore after Scherzer that off-season.

[harmony]

I think I'd still take HanRam over EE. A healthy HanRam that is, 'cause I just think he's a better overall hitter than EE (although I like EE a lot).

 

I agree Scherzer made more sense. I would've went hardcore after Scherzer that off-season.

Over the last five seasons Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 123 in 623 games while over the same period Edwin Encarnacion has an OPS+ of 146 in 727 games. Each player was born in 1983 although Encarnacion is nearly a year older.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

 

Despite that wide five-year disparity, FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 120 for Ramirez and 123 for Encarnacion.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2151&position=1B/3B/DH

Edited February 1, 2017 by harmony

[greenwell]

Any comp to Papi should be about offense:

 

Edgar (8672 PAs)

.418 OBP

.515 SLG

.923 OPS

147 OPS+

147 wRC+

.405 wOBA

.873 OPS in the playoffs (148 PAs)

 

Ortiz

.380 OBP

.552 SLG

.931 OPS (Better than Edgar, but OBP > SLG, so I call it about even)

141 OPS+

140 wRC+

.392 wOBA

.947 OPS in the playoffs (369 PAs)

 

All the numbers, except the playoff data, favor Edgar. Certainly, this is a fair comp.

 

 

 

One thing not shown is Papi's plate appearances total, which is about 1400 more than Edgar. That's mainly due to him starting 3 years earlier. All three of these years, while not bad, were definitely below Papi's career averages.

[Emp9]

Over the last five seasons Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 123 in 623 games while over the same period Edwin Encarnacion has an OPS+ of 146 in 727 games. Each player was born in 1983 although Encarnacion is nearly a year older.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

 

Despite that wide five-year disparity, FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 120 for Ramirez and 123 for Encarnacion.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2151&position=1B/3B/DH

 

XB hits aren't my deciding factor. Hits are, however.

[harmony]

XB hits aren't my deciding factor. Hits are, however.

???

Edwin Encarnacion has posted more hits than Hanley Ramirez in five of the last six seasons, the lone exception coming in 2012 when Ramirez had 155 hits to Encarnacion's 152 hits.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

[Emp9]

???

Edwin Encarnacion has posted more hits than Hanley Ramirez in five of the last six seasons, the lone exception coming in 2012 when Ramirez had 155 hits to Encarnacion's 152 hits.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

 

Why are your sample sizes getting smaller and smaller? first 6 now 5... I'm talking 12years. I'm talking their careers. EE has batted .280 twice in a dozen years, HanRam eight (.300 or more 5 times). HanRam has more career hits than EE, over 200 more hits with only 100 or so more PA. HanRam has got EE beat on 2B, 3B, SB (by a lot), Runs (by a lot), OPS, OBP, Hits, 29 point edge on BA ( over a 12 year period, a 29 point margin is substantial to me ). For me, HamRam edges EE out as a better hitter and an overall better ballplayer and I'd take HanRam over EE all day every day and twice on Wednesday since today is Wednesday. EE is a better power hitter, I'll give you that.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Emp9

[User Name]

Measuring offensive contributions based on hits is silly. Besides, over a significant sample of six years, EE has been the better player, mostly because he's been more durable overall. Health has value.