A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

In 2016 the Red Sox received stellar performances from Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, who posted fWAR pf 7.8, 5.2, 4.8 and 4.7, respectively. These are four great players but I doubt more than one will match or exceed his 2016 fWAR (and the current Steamer, ZiPS and FanGraphs Depth Charts projections support that). Few Red Sox players are projected to regress upward.

 

You know better than anyone that ZiPS and Co. all rarely show a player repeating a very good season, even if their age projection performance curve is still on the rise.

 

I think 2 of those 4 you listed will improve on those 2016 WAR numbers with Pedey being the least likely. I'd almost bet 3 doing it have better odds than 1 doing it. (Almost)

[Kimmi]

Indeed the Red Sox last year scored 101 more runs than they closest American League rival, the Cleveland Guardians (who this offseason added Edwin Encarnacion while the Sox lost David Ortiz).

 

The previous year the Blue Jays scored 127 more runs than their closest American League rival, the New York Yankees. Without losing a David Ortiz-caliber hitter, the Blue Jays in 2016 fell to fifth in the league in scoring.

 

In 2016 the Red Sox received stellar performances from Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, who posted fWAR pf 7.8, 5.2, 4.8 and 4.7, respectively. These are four great players but I doubt more than one will match or exceed his 2016 fWAR (and the current Steamer, ZiPS and FanGraphs Depth Charts projections support that). Few Red Sox players are projected to regress upward.

 

The Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation of American League favorites but I'm unconvinced that the Sox have made a net improvement over the 2016 AL East champs.

 

I agree that we will likely see regression from some of the players that you mentioned, along with less production from the DH spot. I also think it's possible, however, to see improvement out of the left field and 3rd base. I don't expect our offense to outscore our opponents by 100 runs or even by 50 runs. They might even fall to 5th in the league in scoring like the Blue Jays did, though I think that is very unlikely.

 

OTOH, our pitching should be much improved. We were terrible in our 4th and 5th spots last year. The ability of our starters to pitch deep should help the overall quality of our pen. I think that adds up to a net improvement, though I don't think that, in and of itself, is the whole story.

 

Some of our net improvement comes from the gains we made over the other teams in the division. While I don't think any of the teams will be pushovers, I do think that making improvements over them adds to our net improvement.

[harmony]

We added Sale, Thornburg and Moreland not just "an ace".

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter and 65 innings for each reliever, projects 2017 WAR of 0.7 for Mitch Moreland, 0.5 for Tyler Thornburg, 0.9 for Koji Uehara and 0.6 for Junichi Tazawa. David Ortiz posted 4.4 fWAR last year.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation of American League favorites but I'm unconvinced that the Sox have made a net improvement over the 2016 AL East champs.

 

Basically, a Young-Moreland platoon will try to make-up as much ground as possible on the departure of Papi's production. While I hesitate to even use their names in the same sentence at Ortiz, their split numbers look good to very good:

 

vs RHPs: Moreland .778 career (.876 in 2015)

 

vs LHPs: Young .846 career (.999 in 2016 and .972 in 2015 making him one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs over the past two seasons combined)

 

If these guys hit their career numbers the overall DH OPS would be about .800. While that is still woefully short of last year's 1.045 DH OPS, it's not bad, and there's a chance we could end up at .850ish.

 

While nobody is going to be overly confident with Pablo, I'm pretty confident we can improve on last year's .686 third base and .759 LF OPS. If we can improve those two slots by 50 points each, that might make up for about half of the loss at DH.

 

If Sale can give us 32 starts (3.34/1.037 WHIP) , there would be a massive gain.

 

Sale and Pom/ERod/Wright replacing these 37 starts:

21 Buchholz 5.01/ 1.371 WHIP

6 J Kelly 8.46/ 2.239

5 H Owens 6.95/1.955

4 O'Sullivan 6.64/1.672

1 R Elias 15.75/2.500

 

I think you may be underestimating the impact of having Sale and a full year from Pom.

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter and 65 innings for each reliever, projects 2017 WAR of 0.7 for Mitch Moreland, 0.5 for Tyler Thornburg, 0.9 for Koji Uehara and 0.6 for Junichi Tazawa. David Ortiz posted 4.4 fWAR last year.

 

Young hardly DH'd last year. Beni is replacing his OF numbers, so Young should be counted on as a partial replacement to Papi- not just Moreland. Plus, Young missed some time.

 

I think you rely too much on projected WAR. Thornburg had a 2.0 WAR last year. Do you honestly believe he'll be at 0.9 this year? If so, I think you are overly hooked on these projection numbers.

?

[FredLynn]

The Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation of American League favorites but I'm unconvinced that the Sox have made a net improvement over the 2016 AL East champs.

 

Basically, a Young-Moreland platoon will try to make-up as much ground as possible on the departure of Papi's production. While I hesitate to even use their names in the same sentence at Ortiz, their split numbers look good to very good:

 

vs RHPs: Moreland .778 career (.876 in 2015)

 

vs LHPs: Young .846 career (.999 in 2016 and .972 in 2015 making him one of MLB's best hitters vs LHPs over the past two seasons combined)

 

If these guys hit their career numbers the overall DH OPS would be about .800. While that is still woefully short of last year's 1.045 DH OPS, it's not bad, and there's a chance we could end up at .850ish.

 

While nobody is going to be overly confident with Pablo, I'm pretty confident we can improve on last year's .686 third base and .759 LF OPS. If we can improve those two slots by 50 points each, that might make up for about half of the loss at DH.

 

If Sale can give us 32 starts (3.34/1.037 WHIP) , there would be a massive gain.

 

Sale and Pom/ERod/Wright replacing these 37 starts:

21 Buchholz 5.01/ 1.371 WHIP

6 J Kelly 8.46/ 2.239

5 H Owens 6.95/1.955

4 O'Sullivan 6.64/1.672

1 R Elias 15.75/2.500

 

I think you may be underestimating the impact of having Sale and a full year from Pom.

 

He isn't underestimating, he is engaging in wishful thinking: thinking that somehow the Mariners will be like the Red Sox one day. Sort of like putting someone down to elevate yourself.

Sure we lost a lot of offensive production when we lost Papi, but essentially we replaced Buchholz with Sale. How many more wins is that alone going to produce? And while its possible that Price won't have a better year, odds are he will. Add in Thornburg and Smith to replace Uehara (ERA: 3.45 v 2.15 for Thornburg, similar WHIP) and Tazawa (4.17/1.228 v 2.31/1.014) and our pen is also much improved.

Harmony will continue to point out why the Red Sox will not succeed-until they do.

Edited January 28, 2017 by FredLynn

[moonslav59]

Harmony will continue to point out why the Red Sox will not succeed-until they do.

 

Harmony is a good guy who injects some non-biased opinions into the mix.

 

At least he's consistent with using WAR and WAR projections in all of his evaluations- even with Mariner players. He's not a troll, but I do think he's hooked on ZiPS.

[User Name]

Lost in the projections: A full year of Beninendi, a full year of Swihart (wherever he plays), whatever they get out of Sandoval, and non-CB first half starts.

[FredLynn]

Harmony will continue to point out why the Red Sox will not succeed-until they do.

 

Harmony is a good guy who injects some non-biased opinions into the mix.

 

At least he's consistent with using WAR and WAR projections in all of his evaluations- even with Mariner players. He's not a troll, but I do think he's hooked on ZiPS.

 

Definitely not a troll. I agree that he is consistent. I do not recall a single projection on his part that supports the Red Sox being a strong favorite in any arena, so yes, he is consistent. You have to remember where he is coming from. He is a fan of a franchise that has never made it to the WS in its 40 years in existence, writing on a Red Sox forum about a team that won the WS just four years ago. A bit of envy, I think.

[moonslav59]

Definitely not a troll. I agree that he is consistent. I do not recall a single projection on his part that supports the Red Sox being a strong favorite in any arena, so yes, he is consistent. You have to remember where he is coming from. He is a fan of a franchise that has never made it to the WS in its 40 years in existence, writing on a Red Sox forum about a team that won the WS just four years ago. A bit of envy, I think.

 

Maybe. I don't try to guess poster's intentions or feelings. I like Harmony. I think he's an overall asset to the board.

 

I don't see it as being unreasonable to think Sale's gain just balances out Papi's loss, so there's not much reason to expect a significant improvement over 2016.

 

I happen to disagree, but even if we don't improve much, we were a top contender last year, and no AL East team got any better on paper.

 

[Spudboy]

Just for fun, because I like looking at this kind of thing, here are Davenport's projected AL East standings as of today. The projected 84 wins for the Red Sox is a big head scratcher. He doesn't seem to like our pitching staff too much.

 

AL East Won Lost Runs Runs A

BOS 84 78 761 732

TOR 84 78 744 716

BAL 82 80 740 730

NYY 80 82 719 733

TBY 80 82 713 724

 

I can't make any sense of these numbers.

 

Another "Expert" with his head up his ass.

[S5Dewey]

Just for fun, because I like looking at this kind of thing, here are Davenport's projected AL East standings as of today. The projected 84 wins for the Red Sox is a big head scratcher. He doesn't seem to like our pitching staff too much.

 

AL East Won Lost Runs Runs A

BOS 84 78 761 732

TOR 84 78 744 716

BAL 82 80 740 730

NYY 80 82 719 733

TBY 80 82 713 724

 

I'll take the "over" on that 84.

[moonslav59]

I can't make any sense of these numbers.

 

Another "Expert" with his head up his ass.

 

Even if we didn't get Sale, and you think losing Papi would mean losing 9 wins (93 to 84).

 

A full season from Pom, Young, Pablo, Swihart and more from Carson Smith plus the additions of Thornburg and Moreland alone would get us over 84 wins.

 

[harmony]

He isn't underestimating, he is engaging in wishful thinking: thinking that somehow the Mariners will be like the Red Sox one day. Sort of like putting someone down to elevate yourself.

Sure we lost a lot of offensive production when we lost Papi, but essentially we replaced Buchholz with Sale. How many more wins is that alone going to produce? And while its possible that Price won't have a better year, odds are he will. Add in Thornburg and Smith to replace Uehara (ERA: 3.45 v 2.15 for Thornburg, similar WHIP) and Tazawa (4.17/1.228 v 2.31/1.014) and our pen is also much improved.

Harmony will continue to point out why the Red Sox will not succeed-until they do.

It's hardly a put-down to write that the Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/01/28/red-sox-runaway-east-not-fast/ImKMmhw271PH00Irq5PcOM/story.html

 

I'm excited about the 2017 Seattle Mariners but stop short of writing that the M's deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites. I am hopeful that things can break the M's way to end the 15-year postseason drought.

 

The Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox over the past three seasons with neither the highs nor the lows the Sox experienced over that period.

 

Last year Seattle had the league's fourth-best run differential, finishing third in runs scored and third in team ERA. The M's were undermined by woeful defense and base-running. The hope is that the additions of Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger will address those deficiencies. Gone are the days of Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz and Nori Aoki patrolling the expansive Safeco outfield.

 

This could be Seattle's year ... or not. As a Mariner fan I'm no stranger to disappointment.

[notin]

Even if we didn't get Sale, and you think losing Papi would mean losing 9 wins (93 to 84).

 

A full season from Pom, Young, Pablo, Swihart and more from Carson Smith plus the additions of Thornburg and Moreland alone would get us over 84 wins.

 

 

Well not everyone who does projections has a WAPM...

[moonslav59]

It's hardly a put-down to write that the Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/01/28/red-sox-runaway-east-not-fast/ImKMmhw271PH00Irq5PcOM/story.html

 

I'm excited about the 2017 Seattle Mariners but stop short of writing that the M's deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites. I am hopeful that things can break the M's way to end the 15-year postseason drought.

 

The Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox over the past three seasons with neither the highs nor the lows the Sox experienced over that period.

 

Last year Seattle had the league's fourth-best run differential, finishing third in runs scored and third in team ERA. The M's were undermined by woeful defense and base-running. The hope is that the additions of Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger will address those deficiencies. Gone are the days of Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz and Nori Aoki patrolling the expansive Safeco outfield.

 

This could be Seattle's year ... or not. As a Mariner fan I'm no stranger to disappointment.

 

Well said.

 

The M's have certainly been busy wheeling and dealing this winter.

[notin]

Well said.

 

The M's have certainly been busy wheeling and dealing this winter.

 

That's putting it mildly.

 

On the last MLBTR chat, someone suggested to Jeff Todd that there should be a drinking game. Every time Dipoto makes a deal, you drink.

[moonslav59]

That's putting it mildly.

 

On the last MLBTR chat, someone suggested to Jeff Todd that there should be a drinking game. Every time Dipoto makes a deal, you drink.

 

Lot's of drunkards in that game!

[Kimmi]

Maybe. I don't try to guess poster's intentions or feelings. I like Harmony. I think he's an overall asset to the board.

 

I don't see it as being unreasonable to think Sale's gain just balances out Papi's loss, so there's not much reason to expect a significant improvement over 2016.

 

I happen to disagree, but even if we don't improve much, we were a top contender last year, and no AL East team got any better on paper.

 

 

This is what I was trying to say. It is possible that the decline in offense will merely be offset by the improvement in pitching, but I think we did increase the gap between us and the other teams in our division, which adds to our net improvement.

 

OTOH, our Pythagorean W-L record says that we played like a 98 win team last year. I am projecting 95 wins this season. So maybe Harmony is right.

[Kimmi]

I can't make any sense of these numbers.

 

Another "Expert" with his head up his ass.

 

I have been looking over his numbers in detail, and I'll be honest, I can't make any sense of his projections for the AL East either. He projects our position players to have a WAR of 26 and our pitching staff to have a WAR of 19 for a team total of 45 WAR. Add that to the 47-48 replacement level wins, and that puts us at 92-93 wins. Projecting team wins is not as simple as adding up all the WAR values, but it should give a decent approximation.

 

Then he projects the Rays to have an aggregate WAR of 46, one more win than the Sox.

 

I am missing something.

 

All that said, Davenport is not a nut job, nor does he have his 'head up his ass'. I will withhold further judgment until his projections are updated right before the season.

[Kimmi]

I'll take the "over" on that 84.

 

I will too!

 

Maybe he is projecting our 2021 team.

[Kimmi]

Even if we didn't get Sale, and you think losing Papi would mean losing 9 wins (93 to 84).

 

A full season from Pom, Young, Pablo, Swihart and more from Carson Smith plus the additions of Thornburg and Moreland alone would get us over 84 wins.

 

 

Even worse than that, according to Pythagoras, we should have won 98 games, which is what you should use as your starting point. Somehow, he currently has us a full 14 games worse than last season.

[Bellhorn04]

This is what I was trying to say. It is possible that the decline in offense will merely be offset by the improvement in pitching, but I think we did increase the gap between us and the other teams in our division, which adds to our net improvement.

 

OTOH, our Pythagorean W-L record says that we played like a 98 win team last year. I am projecting 95 wins this season. So maybe Harmony is right.

 

If we can duplicate last year's run differential of +184, that's about all you can ask for. +184 is a big number.

 

Some other notable run differentials for past Sox seasons:

 

2013 +197

2007 +210

2004 +181

2002 +194

1986 +98

1978 +139

1975 +87

1967 +108

1950 +223

1946 +198

[Kimmi]

It's hardly a put-down to write that the Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/01/28/red-sox-runaway-east-not-fast/ImKMmhw271PH00Irq5PcOM/story.html

 

I'm excited about the 2017 Seattle Mariners but stop short of writing that the M's deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites. I am hopeful that things can break the M's way to end the 15-year postseason drought.

 

The Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox over the past three seasons with neither the highs nor the lows the Sox experienced over that period.

 

Last year Seattle had the league's fourth-best run differential, finishing third in runs scored and third in team ERA. The M's were undermined by woeful defense and base-running. The hope is that the additions of Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger will address those deficiencies. Gone are the days of Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz and Nori Aoki patrolling the expansive Safeco outfield.

 

This could be Seattle's year ... or not. As a Mariner fan I'm no stranger to disappointment.

 

You have every right to be excited about your team.

 

If I were a Mariners fan, I'd be excited for this season.

 

If I were a Yankees fan, I'd also be excited for this season.

 

As a Red Sox fan, I am very excited for this season.

[Kimmi]

Well not everyone who does projections has a WAPM...

 

Forgive my ignorance, but what is a WAPM?

[Kimmi]

If we can duplicate last year's run differential of +184, that's about all you can ask for. +184 is a big number.

 

Some other notable run differentials for past Sox seasons:

 

2013 +197

2007 +210

2004 +181

2002 +194

1986 +98

1978 +139

1975 +87

1967 +108

1950 +223

1946 +198

 

I would be thrilled if we duplicated +184. I don't think we will quite reach that number. I'm thinking more in the neighborhood of +140.

[FredLynn]

I would be thrilled if we duplicated +184. I don't think we will quite reach that number. I'm thinking more in the neighborhood of +140.

 

I don't think we will have the mashers to win many games by 5+ runs. Our pitching is likely to keep us in games and give us a chance to win games by 4-2 and 5-3 scores. At least thats the plan.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we will have the mashers to win many games by 5+ runs. Our pitching is likely to keep us in games and give us a chance to win games by 4-2 and 5-3 scores. At least thats the plan.

 

We lost a lot of close games last year. We seemed to lack the ability to get the "clutch" hit when we needed it. I put "clutch" in parenthesis, because I do not think it is a skill or repeatable aspect. Hopefully, the odds will be on our side this year in those close games.

 

I agree with Kimmi on the fact that our baseline should be 98 wins. I have to think taht even if you take away 15 wins due to Papi's retirement, Sale, Thornburg and Moreland should add quite a few wins to the projected total.

 

[Fisk]

Hi first time posting on this forum, have been a diehard fan since 72. Grew up a half hour away from Yankee stadium in the 70s that was not easy. Have very much appreciated our current ownership group after so many frustrating years. That said this is possibly the most talented sox team in my lifetime, offensively, defensively, pitching and even baserunning. They should have won more then 93 games last year based on the run differential and the amount of one run losses, with better luck this year they might be able to reach 100 wins which would be the first time in my lifetime.

[moonslav59]

Hi first time posting on this forum, have been a diehard fan since 72. Grew up a half hour away from Yankee stadium in the 70s that was not easy. Have very much appreciated our current ownership group after so many frustrating years. That said this is possibly the most talented sox team in my lifetime, offensively, defensively, pitching and even baserunning. They should have won more then 93 games last year based on the run differential and the amount of one run losses, with better luck this year they might be able to reach 100 wins which would be the first time in my lifetime.

 

Welcome aboard. I became a Sox fan in 1972 as well.

 

Go SOX!