A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

i really don't think that if E-Rod winds up in Pawtucket it will have anything at all to do with saving any kind of control over him. It could happen though. He could get get injured - he could have a very poor spring. I think that he is taking his chances pitching in the WBC and he will have to deal with what comes of it. He is a big strong kid but he does have an injury history. He also doesn't lay over the other two who will be in the hunt for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. It's still possible that Wright out pitches everybody we got. We don't really know what we might get from Wright or Pomeranz. It isn't unreasonable to think that if these two guys are healthy, and E-Rod pitches in the WBC that the Red Sox might just decide to slow him down.

 

Good points, but in my mind, assuming all are 100% healthy, we know more about Wright than ERod and Pom.

 

I still like ERod as the number 4 and Wright as the #5 with Pom starting off the season in the pen, but it's so close, I see no compelling argument that makes any one of the three a sure bet starter at season start.

[Hugh2]

In terms of who the 5 man rotation will be I think it could be a pissing contest in here until we are in week two of the season. The first three are locks in Sale, Porcello and Price but after that there is a good argument for all of Wright, Pomeranz, and ERod.

 

Drew Pomeranz.

Why he will be the starter: Because of his first half last year, the hefty price the Sox paid for him, and the hope that with some added stamina he can replicate his first half for a whole season going forward.

Why he won't be the starter: Someone is the odd man out, he doesn't have the ability to lock down a rotation spot for 32 games and he has more experience of pitching out of the bullpen than the other three. With sucess I might add.

 

Stephen Wright

 

Why he will be the starter: Again he had a really good start to the 2016 season, and at the end of the day he really only had one bad 6 week stretch in August and September. Besides that he pitched like an ACE most of the year and has a track record of average to above average results in Boston and the minors the past 3 years.

Why he won't be the starter: No matter how well knuckleballers pitch they always seem to come with some question marks. Their performance can be volatile from game to game and from season to season. There is a sense he was pitching above his talent last year and again at the end of the day someone has to be the odd man out. For a guy who is kind of a one trick pony it becomes pretty easy to throw him into the swing man role which also allows the Red Sox to avoid optioning Eduardo Rodriguez.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

 

Why he will be the starter: Talent and upside. We've all seen his potential here and in Pawtucket the past few years, with youth on his side and injury behind him he seems primed for a break out season. He very well may have the capacity to be the better pitcher over the next few years than Wright or Pomeranz.

 

Why he won't be the starter: He has an option left, which gives the Sox the option to keep him ready in Pawtucket if anyone from the five man rotation goes down or severely under performs. History tells us this will happen. Despite his upside and high ceiling talent he's never seemed to fully put it together for a full season and considering the last point I made it makes sense for him to get some innings in Pawtucket and prove he's ready and overcome some of his pitch tipping issues while he waits for his next chance.

 

 

Now I'm sure some here would agree or disagree with many of these points but that's they whole point of this post. I don't think there is a silver bullet answer for what to do, but if I had to guess I'd say all things being equal in spring training that Pomeranz and E-Rod take the 4th and 5th spots while Wright becomes the swing man out of the bullpen. But as the old saying goes, these types of things have a way of working themselves out.

[moonslav59]

Chaos reigns in baseball as it does in life. What could go wrong? Since we have no Ortiz we are reliant on JBJ, Leon, Bogaerts and others returning to form after a significant downturn at the end of the season. Sandoval's return is fraught with uncertainty. Injuries happen to pitching staffs every year, lets hope one of our aces doesn't go out this year. I have been an ardent fan since the late 1940's. We used to listen on the radio as we had no TV then and follow the box scores in the paper. Going to an occasional game was a real treat. I have questioned the front office moves over these many years but have learned that once the trades are made and the teams are set to accept what has been done and hope for the best.

 

I think you put too much stock into a player's most recent month or two performance level. Players are up and down over much of their career.

 

Let's look at some recent Sox numbers at the end of the previous season:

 

2nd half 2014:

.928 Castillo

.851 Victorino

.815 Drew

.765 Nava

.719 Cespedes

.674 Pedey

.661 Bogey

.548 Holt

.316 JBJ

 

If anything, this chart shows that the worse you did to end the previous year, the better you do the next year and vice versa! Look at JBJ: he ended the season going 1 for 36 then went on to have an .832 year in 2015.

 

2nd half of 2015:

.896 Napoli

.891 JBJ

.859 Betts

.839 Shaw

.805 Swihart

.803 Bogey

.734 Pedey

.686 Castillo

.653 Holt

.602 Pablo

.449 HanRam

 

At the end of last year, everyone wished we could trade HanRam away, but knew nobody wanted him. The changes from the 2nd half of 2015 to the 2016 season weren't as pronounced as the previous 2 seasons, but again, I see little correlation between 2nd half numbers and the following year, in fact it seems like a stronger correlation was made between the 1st half of 2015 and the full 2016 season.

 

1st half 2015;

.819 Pedey

.816 HanRam

.792 Betts

.791 Holt

.750 Bogey

.691 Pablo

 

[moonslav59]

If our top 3 can stay healthy, our rotation will be tough to beat. Our offense was already the best in the league.

 

On paper, our pen is much worse than the Guardians as of now. I think we have them beat everywhere else, except for base running.

[moonslav59]

It's not so much about control over ERod, though that could be part of the issue, but more about keeping control of as many quality players as possible for depth and flexibility. Again, I don't think it's a big issue now that Buchholz is gone, but $13 million salary relief aside, if I have a choice between having both Buchholz and Erod on the team with ERod starting in AAA, or losing Buchholz so that ERod does not have to be sent down, I'm going with the former.

 

To me, it was never about ERod vs Buch on the roster, it was about ERod or Buch vs Abad or Hembree- something a creative DL can solve for a while.

 

I just don't see us being in danger of losing pitching depth due to a roster crunch. The only two guys without options are Abad and Hembree. Those types of pitchers grow on trees. They're barely above replacement value pitchers, if that.

 

Look at the Guardians 25 man "roster crunch"- now that is a real debate on which 12 to keep: (fangraphs projected WAR)

 

4.9 Kluber

4.5 Carrasco

3.3 Salazar

1.6 Bauer

1.4 Tomlin

0.7 Clevinger

0.3 Merritt

 

1.2 Cody Allen

2.7 A Miller

0.5 D Otero

0.4 B Shaw

0.4 McAllister

0.5 Tim Cooney

0.2 Cody Anderson

 

They don't have issues with options, but they don't have guys like Abad or Hembree in their top 12 or top 14 pitchers.

 

Don't get me wrong, I have high hopes for Hembree, probably higher than most here, but Abad and Hembree are perhaps our weakest link of the 25 man roster next to maybe Pablo at 3B...maybe.

 

I wouldn't mind us signing a RP'er right now and trading Abad and Hembree. Neither of those two are worth debating about sending down ERod or the trading away of Buch. They are replacement level players.

 

[moonslav59]

93 wins is reasonable.

 

This indicates that FanGraphs assesses the overall strength of the 2017 team as about the same as the 2016 team.

 

It's weird how they project the Guardians with a better overall WAR than us (45.5 to 45.1), they play in an easier division than us and yet they have us with more wins.

[moonslav59]

In terms of who the 5 man rotation will be I think it could be a pissing contest in here until we are in week two of the season. The first three are locks in Sale, Porcello and Price but after that there is a good argument for all of Wright, Pomeranz, and ERod.

 

Drew Pomeranz.

Why he will be the starter: Because of his first half last year, the hefty price the Sox paid for him, and the hope that with some added stamina he can replicate his first half for a whole season going forward.

Why he won't be the starter: Someone is the odd man out, he doesn't have the ability to lock down a rotation spot for 32 games and he has more experience of pitching out of the bullpen than the other three. With sucess I might add.

 

Stephen Wright

 

Why he will be the starter: Again he had a really good start to the 2016 season, and at the end of the day he really only had one bad 6 week stretch in August and September. Besides that he pitched like an ACE most of the year and has a track record of average to above average results in Boston and the minors the past 3 years.

Why he won't be the starter: No matter how well knuckleballers pitch they always seem to come with some question marks. Their performance can be volatile from game to game and from season to season. There is a sense he was pitching above his talent last year and again at the end of the day someone has to be the odd man out. For a guy who is kind of a one trick pony it becomes pretty easy to throw him into the swing man role which also allows the Red Sox to avoid optioning Eduardo Rodriguez.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

 

Why he will be the starter: Talent and upside. We've all seen his potential here and in Pawtucket the past few years, with youth on his side and injury behind him he seems primed for a break out season. He very well may have the capacity to be the better pitcher over the next few years than Wright or Pomeranz.

 

Why he won't be the starter: He has an option left, which gives the Sox the option to keep him ready in Pawtucket if anyone from the five man rotation goes down or severely under performs. History tells us this will happen. Despite his upside and high ceiling talent he's never seemed to fully put it together for a full season and considering the last point I made it makes sense for him to get some innings in Pawtucket and prove he's ready and overcome some of his pitch tipping issues while he waits for his next chance.

 

 

Now I'm sure some here would agree or disagree with many of these points but that's they whole point of this post. I don't think there is a silver bullet answer for what to do, but if I had to guess I'd say all things being equal in spring training that Pomeranz and E-Rod take the 4th and 5th spots while Wright becomes the swing man out of the bullpen. But as the old saying goes, these types of things have a way of working themselves out.

 

Good points.

 

I will add this: no mention was made about who best fits the RP'er role, except to say Wright can be "easily" put into the swingman role. Pom has a lot of experience, much of it good, as a RP'er. Wright actually has shown he does much better as a starter vs a RP'er.

 

Wright:

as SP: 16-11 3.52 1.24 WHIP (.660 OPS against)

as RP: 4-0 3.88 1.40 WHIP (.721 OPS against)

 

Pomeranz:

as SP: 21-32 4.07 1.33 (.710 OPS against)

as RP: 4-4 2.10 0.99 (.543 OPS against)

 

I also take issue to the "volatile" comments so many psoters attribute to knucklballers. While it's true, knuckleballers sometmes "lose it" quickly, so do fastball and curve ball pitchers.

 

Wakefield and other knuckleballer have had very long and consistent careers.

 

Wright has been a consistent starter. One could attribute his rough stretch this year as injury-related.

 

Note: this is not a scientific study, as 1 ER in 2 IP counts the same as 1 ER in 8 IP.

 

Out of all of Wright's career starts, he's had these amounts of starts with 4 or more ERs:

2013: 0 out of 1

2014: 0 out of 1

2015: 2 out of 9

2016: 5 out of 24 (including 3 of his last 5-- injured???)

Total: 7 out of 35 (20%)

 

21 out of 35 starts were 0-2 ER starts (60%)

 

Here's POM in the same light:

2011: 1 out of 4 with 4 or more runs allowed (2/4 0-2 ERs)

2012: 7 out of 22 (12/22)

2013: 2 out of 4 (0/4)

2014: 2 out of 10 (8/10 with even 0-1 ERS!)

2015: 4 out of 9 (3/9)

2016: 6 out of 30 (20/30)

Total: 23 out of 79 (30%)

 

43 out of 79 starts with 0-2 ERs (54%)

 

It seems to me, Wright has been more consistent.

 

ERod:

 

2015: 4 out of 21 with 4 or more ERs allowed (actually all 4 were with 6 or more ERs allowed!) (11/22 with 0-2 Ers)

2016: 6 out of 20 (10/20 with 0-2 ERs)

Total: 10 out of 41 (24%)

 

50% of his starts have been 0-2 ERs allowed starts (21 out of 42)

 

 

[moonslav59]

How many teams out there today are looking to demote a SP'er to the pen who has let up 0-2 ERs in 60% of his starts and 0-3 Ers in 80% of his starts?

 

What a wonderful "problem" to have!

[Hugh2]

Good points.

 

I will add this: no mention was made about who best fits the RP'er role, except to say Wright can be "easily" put into the swingman role. Pom has a lot of experience, much of it good, as a RP'er. Wright actually has shown he does much better as a starter vs a RP'er.

 

Wright:

as SP: 16-11 3.52 1.24 WHIP (.660 OPS against)

as RP: 4-0 3.88 1.40 WHIP (.721 OPS against)

 

Pomeranz:

as SP: 21-32 4.07 1.33 (.710 OPS against)

as RP: 4-4 2.10 0.99 (.543 OPS against)

 

I also take issue to the "volatile" comments so many psoters attribute to knucklballers. While it's true, knuckleballers sometmes "lose it" quickly, so do fastball and curve ball pitchers.

 

Wakefield and other knuckleballer have had very long and consistent careers.

 

Wright has been a consistent starter. One could attribute his rough stretch this year as injury-related.

 

Note: this is not a scientific study, as 1 ER in 2 IP counts the same as 1 ER in 8 IP.

 

Out of all of Wright's career starts, he's had these amounts of starts with 4 or more ERs:

2013: 0 out of 1

2014: 0 out of 1

2015: 2 out of 9

2016: 5 out of 24 (including 3 of his last 5-- injured???)

Total: 7 out of 35 (20%)

 

21 out of 35 starts were 0-2 ER starts (60%)

 

Here's POM in the same light:

2011: 1 out of 4 with 4 or more runs allowed (2/4 0-2 ERs)

2012: 7 out of 22 (12/22)

2013: 2 out of 4 (0/4)

2014: 2 out of 10 (8/10 with even 0-1 ERS!)

2015: 4 out of 9 (3/9)

2016: 6 out of 30 (20/30)

Total: 23 out of 79 (30%)

 

43 out of 79 starts with 0-2 ERs (54%)

 

It seems to me, Wright has been more consistent.

 

ERod:

 

2015: 4 out of 21 with 4 or more ERs allowed (actually all 4 were with 6 or more ERs allowed!) (11/22 with 0-2 Ers)

2016: 6 out of 20 (10/20 with 0-2 ERs)

Total: 10 out of 41 (24%)

 

50% of his starts have been 0-2 ERs allowed starts (21 out of 42)

 

 

 

Like I said, you can really make the argument for all three. There's no silver bullet correct solution here. Right or wrong, that's how the cards fall. There's a decent chance Stephen Wright is the odd man out of the rotation despite earning a spot; One could also make a compelling argument for Pom and Erod too. My gut tells me it's Wright, but a lot can happen from now until the end of spring training to change that. It is what it is and as you said it's a good problem to have.

 

Btw, Merry Christmas!

[Dojji]

For me the tipper is the fact that Pom can be a productive reliever and has the most experience of the three pitchers in the swingman role. The best argument for not using Pomeranz in the pen is a sunk cost fallacy. Take Anderson Espinosa's trade value out of a decision it really has no place in. Pomeranz is the pitcher of the 3 with the least track record as a fulltime starter, pretty much just this year. He's also the pitcher with the best overall relief performance. The decision starts to look pretty clearcut at that point.

 

If we needed a starter Pom would have every chance to be more than adequate and would be at the bottom if not the middle of nearly every rotation in baseball. I'm not throwing stones at Drew Pomeranz, far from it. But we have a dead heat here, and as far as tiebreakers go for who to transition from one role to another, "guy who was most effective in the other role" seems like the way to roll out the gate.

 

And this is really a question of how to get out of the gate. All 6 starters will get regular action. As the season goes on I have no doubt that whoever sits in that swingman role will make a dozen starts probably more -- again, though, Pomeranz' experience as a very successful swingman actually makes him a rare and potentially valuable assets. True swingmen who can move back and forth from the rotation to the pen, the way Pomeranz did before last year, while maintaining a high level of productivity, are actually pretty darned rare, that's why the job gets given to junktime guys so often, but a guy who CAN do that? Especially if he can swap in and out of the rotation as needed withouit getting hurt or losing effectiveness? Gold. Pure gold.

 

Hell, there's a distinct possibility that the team may transition to a 6 man rotation and sidestep the whole issue if everyone is healthy and productive, especially if we're getting into a long string of games with no off days. It's a luxury to have 6 good starters, one that grants us strategic options we don't normally have -- shame if we failed to take advantage.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Like I said, you can really make the argument for all three. There's no silver bullet correct solution here. Right or wrong, that's how the cards fall. There's a decent chance Stephen Wright is the odd man out of the rotation despite earning a spot; One could also make a compelling argument for Pom and Erod too. My gut tells me it's Wright, but a lot can happen from now until the end of spring training to change that. It is what it is and as you said it's a good problem to have.

 

Btw, Merry Christmas!

 

Merry Christmas to you too!

 

Personally, I'd put Pom in the pen as I see things right now, but things can and might change by April.

 

I agree that I think Sox management sees Wright as the odd man out. I'm fine with whatever choice they make.

[moonslav59]

For me the tipper is the fact that Pom can be a productive reliever and has the most experience of the three pitchers in the swingman role. The best argument for not using Pomeranz in the pen is a sunk cost fallacy. Take Anderson Espinosa's trade value out of a decision it really has no place in. Pomeranz is the pitcher of the 3 with the least track record as a fulltime starter, pretty much just this year. He's also the pitcher with the best overall relief performance. The decision starts to look pretty clearcut at that point.

 

If we needed a starter Pom would have every chance to be more than adequate and would be at the bottom if not the middle of nearly every rotation in baseball. I'm not throwing stones at Drew Pomeranz, far from it. But we have a dead heat here, and as far as tiebreakers go for who to transition from one role to another, "guy who was most effective in the other role" seems like the way to roll out the gate.

 

And this is really a question of how to get out of the gate. All 6 starters will get regular action. As the season goes on I have no doubt that whoever sits in that swingman role will make a dozen starts probably more -- again, though, Pomeranz' experience as a very successful swingman actually makes him a rare and potentially valuable assets. True swingmen who can move back and forth from the rotation to the pen, the way Pomeranz did before last year, while maintaining a high level of productivity, are actually pretty darned rare, that's why the job gets given to junktime guys so often, but a guy who CAN do that? Especially if he can swap in and out of the rotation as needed withouit getting hurt or losing effectiveness? Gold. Pure gold.

 

Hell, there's a distinct possibility that the team may transition to a 6 man rotation and sidestep the whole issue if everyone is healthy and productive, especially if we're getting into a long string of games with no off days. It's a luxury to have 6 good starters, one that grants us strategic options we don't normally have -- shame if we failed to take advantage.

 

I like everything you had to say, until the last paragraph. I've never bought into the 6 man rotation idea, and although I like our 4-6 starters, there's no way I want to lessen how many starts our top 3 get. The other reason is this: our pen is not that deep. Going with 6 starters takes away a good arm from the pen...one that can eat a lot of innings from the middle to long relief role.

[Dojji]

It's an option we have of our starters are getting a little worn down. An extra day of rest never hurt anyone. It doesn't even have to be a formal 6 man rotation per se -- just slip Pomeranz a start every once in awhile before you turn the rotation over, and give everyone else another day to recuperate from the stress of fulltime starting pitching when they seem to need it. Or skip the guy with the slight elbow tightness you'd normally have him play through because Pom is there to take the start. Or guarantee to the guy who hasn't had an off day in 2 weeks that he just needs 5, and them Pom will take it from there to the late innings. Having him there gives us options at a level that neither Wright or E-Rod has proven they can provide at quite the same level.

 

If Pomeranz stays in that role all year it's because all 5 of our other starters are healthy and we're probably going to the World Series, but that being the case, if he does stay in that role he'll easily get 90 innings pitched and 10 starts or so with a 3.5-ish ERA, which is about what he did in 2015, and will wind up contributing value far in excess of his WAR (which doesn't and can't count "other players not having to do the same work and so being fresher themselves"), especially for a team with championship ambitions. Being able to put that kind of player in a role that suits him so well is a rare luxury for a ballteam.

 

Since Pomeranz is the only one of the three that has done that kind of work over a full season before (in 2014 and 2015) I'm very much inclined to find out whether he can still do it, because people who can pitch that kind of flexible role at a high level are a lot rarer than you might think.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Dojji

[Emp9]

If our top 3 can stay healthy, our rotation will be tough to beat. Our offense was already the best in the league.

 

I don't know how they figured that out (93 wins). That doesn't quite compute with me. I see us not winning as many blow-out games as last year (30-11) even though let's say those wins could still be wins, but there's a better chance we won't lose as many blow-outs either. Sox were 20-24 in one-run games, I see that changing for the batter as well. How much? I don't know. Over-all we shouldn't have to score 5-6 runs a game, let's say 4-5 runs a game per average. I like our Ortiz-less offense if guys like XB, JBJ, Beni continue to make strides. I fully expected Betts to have the kind of season he did but not last year, more like two years later (2018). I felt he'd be this good someday, not this good this quickly. If he comes within a stones throw to the season he had that should be fine. Not having to face EE (& maybe even Bautista) 19 games should help because they were our stiffest competition out of any team we faced during the regular season. SOx were 9-10 vs Toronto (most losses vs any team) even though we out-scored them 97-85. There's other things like losing streaks. Our longest was a 4 game losing streak that happened once (not too shabby really), but we had a lot of 3 game losing streaks, 7 (I think). This coming season, I don't see us losing 4 games in a row ever on top of having less 3-game losing streaks. I have to cut this short 'cause it x-mas, but I don't think I'm having delusions of grandeur here when I think (on paper) 103 wins is closer to reality than 93.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know how they figured that out (93 wins). That doesn't quite compute with me. I see us not winning as many blow-out games as last year (30-11) even though let's say those wins could still be wins, but there's a better chance we won't lose as many blow-outs either. Sox were 20-24 in one-run games, I see that changing for the batter as well. How much? I don't know. Over-all we shouldn't have to score 5-6 runs a game, let's say 4-5 runs a game per average. I like our Ortiz-less offense if guys like XB, JBJ, Beni continue to make strides. I fully expected Betts to have the kind of season he did but not last year, more like two years later (2018). I felt he'd be this good someday, not this good this quickly. If he comes within a stones throw to the season he had that should be fine. Not having to face EE (& maybe even Bautista) 19 games should help because they were our stiffest competition out of any team we faced during the regular season. SOx were 9-10 vs Toronto (most losses vs any team) even though we out-scored them 97-85. There's other things like losing streaks. Our longest was a 4 game losing streak that happened once (not too shabby really), but we had a lot of 3 game losing streaks, 7 (I think). This coming season, I don't see us losing 4 games in a row ever on top of having less 3-game losing streaks. I have to cut this short 'cause it x-mas, but I don't think I'm having delusions of grandeur here when I think (on paper) 103 wins is closer to reality than 93.

 

These pre-season projections are usually fairly conservative.

 

I don't like the 103 win projection though.

 

Personally I think we are about the same in overall strength as last year. Losing Papi will cost us about 5 games. Acquiring Sale should offset that loss. The rest is about even.

[Dojji]

Except that you're ignoring how unsettled our rotation was at the start of last year. We did a lot to stabilize the rotation in midseason and this will be the first season we reap the full benefit of that, and that was of course before we landed Sale.

[moonslav59]

These pre-season projections are usually fairly conservative.

 

I don't like the 103 win projection though.

 

Personally I think we are about the same in overall strength as last year. Losing Papi will cost us about 5 games. Acquiring Sale should offset that loss. The rest is about even.

 

With a young team like we have, someone is bound to disappoint us, but overall, I think "the rest" should do better.

 

The big "if" will be at 3B, but it doesn't take much to improve on the worst in baseball in 2016.

 

A whole year of Beni, Pom, and hopefully Wright, ERod, Kelly, Young, Leon and others should give us an uptick. Plus, I'm hoping Moreland gives us more than replacement level performance. His 1B defense alone should maybe give back one win we lose from Papi's retirement. I could see us end up with pretty close to the same run total as 2016, but with improved defense and wire-to-wire better SP'ing. Our second half starter numbers were the best in the AL, and that was without Sale and Wright!

 

Not m uch talk has been dedicated to our improved defense, so here's how I see it:

 

C: I'll call it even. Replace 264 innings from Hanigan and 85 from Holaday with Leon & Vaz getting more. (Swihart's 52 innings could be replaced or added to.)

 

1B: Big improvement. 1145 innings by HanRam , 290 by Shaw & 5 by Papi replaced by maybe 1,000 by Moreland (GG quality) and 440 by Hanram down over 700 innings.

 

2B: Call it even

 

3B: Tough call, but I'll say we get worse by a little. We used 9 players at 3B this year, including 4 over 90 innings: Shaw 851, Hill 275, Rutledge 97 and Holt 93.

 

SS: I'm hopeful for a slight bump up here, but Bogey took a step back this year. I'm not happy with Holt as his primary back-up (Hernandez is better), but there's not a big difference there.

 

LF: Big gain here: Beni should be a huge improvement over this:

479 Holt

446 Young

232 Beni

143 Brentz

114 Swihart

13 LaMarre

10 Castillo

3 T Shaw

 

CF & RF should be the same but with Beni as the CF back-up not Holt, maybe a very slight uptick.

 

In summary, big plus at 1B and LF and little minus (maybe) at 3B. Some swing could occur at C and SS.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Except that you're ignoring how unsettled our rotation was at the start of last year. We did a lot to stabilize the rotation in midseason and this will be the first season we reap the full benefit of that, and that was of course before we landed Sale.

 

I don't disagree. There are just so many things can go wrong though, especially with the pitching, and I don't think that's a pessimistic view.

[Nick]

Holt had some big misplays in OF....just because a guy makes easy plays doesn't mean he's a good outfielder.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree. There are just so many things can go wrong though, especially with the pitching, and I don't think that's a pessimistic view.

 

Agreed. I'm not sure I feel a whole lot better about ERod as I did last year at this time. (I liked him a lot last winter.)

 

I do think we might have been overly high on Kelly based on his last 8 starts from 2015, but I do think feeling better about Pom & Sale than we did about Buch & Kelly is justified. Feeling better about 2017 Wright than we did before 2016 is also justified.

[notin]

Holt had some big misplays in OF....just because a guy makes easy plays doesn't mean he's a good outfielder.

 

Agreed. I've never liked Holt's defense anywhere, although he does appear to be a better outfielder than infielder.

[moonslav59]

Holt had some big misplays in OF....just because a guy makes easy plays doesn't mean he's a good outfielder.

 

Who said he was a good defensive OF'er?

 

Certainly, not me.

[harmony]

How many teams out there today are looking to demote a SP'er to the pen who has let up 0-2 ERs in 60% of his starts and 0-3 Ers in 80% of his starts?

 

What a wonderful "problem" to have!

Seattle lefthander Ariel Miranda nearly falls into that category, giving up two or fewer earned runs in 45 percent of his starts and three or fewer earned runs in 90 percent of his starts. The Mariners are looking to add a starter to move Miranda to the bullpen.

Edited December 26, 2016 by harmony

[Nick]

Who said he was a good defensive OF'er?

 

Certainly, not me.

 

Whoa Moon.....I'm not pointing finger at you.....just a general observation.

 

I think you would agree that DD is very happy with our current, projected OF trio. Thus no trading Bradley Jr and Beni....

[moonslav59]

Whoa Moon.....I'm not pointing finger at you.....just a general observation.

 

I think you would agree that DD is very happy with our current, projected OF trio. Thus no trading Bradley Jr and Beni....

 

It's all cool.

 

Yes, I think DD & John are more than happy with out 3 OF'er and our number 4.

 

Once it gets past them, the defense & offense drops off quite a bit.

[southpaw777]

Yeah, I wasn't referring to your post, but some of the earlier ones. Someone called it stupid and dumb a page or two back.

 

I did...and if ERod is pitching well in ST like i said, I dont care about options. I still think it would be foolish/stupid to send him down under those circumstances...

[moonslav59]

Our pen is too weak to talk about sending someone like ERod down to AAA.

[Beantowne]

Hey Moon,

Just found this forum, saw you and a few others from the old BDC forums here. Hope all is well and you're enjoying the holidays...Don't have much to add to this thread. I like the 2017 teams chances with the addition of Sale

[moonslav59]

Hey Moon,

Just found this forum, saw you and a few others from the old BDC forums here. Hope all is well and you're enjoying the holidays...Don't have much to add to this thread. I like the 2017 teams chances with the addition of Sale

 

Welcome Bean!

 

I look forward to your insightful contributions here.

[Nick]

After 2017, we'll have as many as 16 players in arbitration process, 6 more under contract but Sale will require $6M bump in luxury tax computation.

 

We only have Moreland ($5.5M), Young ($6.5M) and possibly Abad (anticipated $2M in year 3 arb this year) for total of $14M coming off the books. We can get some relief if we pick up the club option for Kimbrel ($12M) and trade him assuming Kelly, Smith, Thornburg, Ross, Hembree and Barnes all come through and improve. Do something similar to what we did with Clay B.

 

What I'm getting at is we still won't have much financial wiggle room next year. At some point, we'll have to trade away a $20M contract for prospects so we can keep our core together.