A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

I think he's right there too, because there's a $1 million buyout on the 2018 option, which is guaranteed money, so it has to be factored into the AAV.

 

No, Cots Baseball Contracts has it at $32.5M/6, which includes the $1M buy-out. $31.5M + $1M. They do the same for every contract.

[moonslav59]

I'm reposting this, because it really blows me away. The lack of hardly anyone signed beyond their prime years is amazing!

 

I bolded any years over 32.

 

Ages under team control

28-30 Sale

31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)> 33, 34, 35, 36

28-30 Porcello

24-28 ERod

28-30 Pomeranz

32- 35 Wright 33, 34, 35

32 Buchholz

(Owens, Johnson, Groome)

 

29-30 Kimbrel

28-30 Thornburg

27-30 C Smith

29- 30 J Kelly

28- 29 R Ross

27- 31 Barnes

(Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott)

 

28-31 Leon

26-29 Vazquez

25- 29 Swihart

 

33-34 or 35 Ramirez 33, 34 & maybe 35

31 Moreland

(Sam Tavis/Ockimey)

 

33-38 Pedroia

29-31 Holt

 

24-26 Bogaerts

24-29 Hernandez

(Chatham)

 

30-32 or 33 Sandoval-option

(Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec)

 

22-27 Benintendi

33 C Young

 

27-30 Bradley

 

24-27 Betts

 

When you look at the few we have, none are for beyond 38, and only Pedey is beyond 36. If price opts out, only Wright and HanRam could go to age 35 depending on options and arb choices.

 

I know it sucks losing so many prospects, but it's not like this is an old team with high need openings coming up in the next year or two.

 

We lose Buch and Young next winter and Kimbrel, Kelly and Ross the winter after. All of those can probably be dealt with, but when we come to the winter of Bogey (or before) some cash is going to have to start flying.

[bosoxmal]

Anyone else a little nervous about Kimbrel. I'm not taking him for granted by a lomg shot. A little remindful of the 105 m.p.h. thrower, Dick Radatz. Gret until he could no longer find the plate. Kimbrel's ERA from 2012 looks like this:

 

2012----1.01

2013----1.21

2014----1.60

2015----2.56

2016----3.40

 

One mor jump like that, and we'll need a new closer.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy with the trades and our current roster, but man-o-man, we've gutted the farm...

 

Sox prospects traded in the last year:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Anyone else a little nervous about Kimbrel. I'm not taking him for granted by a lomg shot. A little remindful of the 105 m.p.h. thrower, Dick Radatz. Gret until he could no longer find the plate. Kimbrel's ERA from 2012 looks like this:

 

2012----1.01

2013----1.21

2014----1.60

2015----2.56

2016----3.40

 

One mor jump like that, and we'll need a new closer.

 

ERA is a bad stat to use for closers as they often come in with 1 or 2 outs. While his WHIP has also risen, it maybe hasn't been at the same rate.

 

0.654

0.881

0.908

1.045

1.094

 

I am concerned.

 

 

 

 

[SoxHop]

Koji Uehara reportedly is on the brink of signing with the Cubs:

 

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I loved that guy....

[moonslav59]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I loved that guy....

 

That 2013 season will go down in history as one of the greatest performances by a RP'er.

 

4.0 H/9

1.1 BB/9

12.2 K/9

11.22 K/BB

0.565 WHIP

379 ERA+

 

7 straight years with a WHIP below 0.958!!!

 

Career 0.864 WHIP

 

Playoffs: 0.833 WHIP

 

World Series: 0.429 WHIP

 

Wish we could have found a way to bring him back.

Edited December 9, 2016 by moonslav59

[Eddy Ballgame]

ERA is a bad stat to use for closers as they often come in with 1 or 2 outs. While his WHIP has also risen, it maybe hasn't been at the same rate.

 

0.654

0.881

0.908

1.045

1.094

 

I am concerned.

 

 

 

 

 

Let's throw out the "stats" and "WAR projections" and look at the "human element" here for a second. Craig Kimbrell had to move from San Diego (arguably the most laid back place on earth) across the country to Boston (arguably the most intense work environment in baseball). He also had to pitch in a different league that he wasn't very familiar with, and yet he still had a pretty damn good year overall.

 

There's no question that he had a bigger strike zone to work with in the NL, his fastball still hit 100 at times this year, and his breaking ball still made hitter's knees buckle. He also wants the ball back immediately after any time he gets his tits ripped, so he obviously had that "closer mentality."

 

So, not only am I not concerned, I think he'll be significantly better next year.

[S5Dewey]

Let's throw out the "stats" and "WAR projections" and look at the "human element" here for a second. Craig Kimbrell had to move from San Diego (arguably the most laid back place on earth) across the country to Boston (arguably the most intense work environment in baseball). He also had to pitch in a different league that he wasn't very familiar with, and yet he still had a pretty damn good year overall.

 

There's no question that he had a bigger strike zone to work with in the NL, his fastball still hit 100 at times this year, and his breaking ball still made hitter's knees buckle. He also wants the ball back immediately after any time he gets his tits ripped, so he obviously had that "closer mentality."

 

So, not only am I not concerned, I think he'll be significantly better next year.

 

Oh, pulleeze. Craig Kimblel in 2016 was the definition of reputation over substance. He had the reputation of being able to throw strikes so the hitters were swinging at pitches they should have been laying off from. The guy couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a flashlight. Did you even see how many 3 (and 4) balls counts he had? At one time he was so wild that Farrell had to go out and get him. There was even a segment of the posters here who were begging for Koji to be the closer again.

 

I know there are a lot of excuses for why he pitched the way he did, and I don't buy many of them. I tend to fall back to Bill Parcell's statement of "Don't tell me about the pain, just show me the baby". I truly hope that he is significantly better next year because if he isn't we're going to lose several games while Farrell figures out that he can't leave a player out there just because he used to be good and because he makes a lot of money.

[moonslav59]

Let's throw out the "stats" and "WAR projections" and look at the "human element" here for a second. Craig Kimbrell had to move from San Diego (arguably the most laid back place on earth) across the country to Boston (arguably the most intense work environment in baseball). He also had to pitch in a different league that he wasn't very familiar with, and yet he still had a pretty damn good year overall.

 

His time in laid back SD saw his WHIP steadily rise to more than 50% higher BEFORE he came here.

[moonslav59]

Oh, pulleeze. Craig Kimblel in 2016 was the definition of reputation over substance. He had the reputation of being able to throw strikes so the hitters were swinging at pitches they should have been laying off from. The guy couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a flashlight. Did you even see how many 3 (and 4) balls counts he had? At one time he was so wild that Farrell had to go out and get him. There was even a segment of the posters here who were begging for Koji to be the closer again.

 

I know there are a lot of excuses for why he pitched the way he did, and I don't buy many of them. I tend to fall back to Bill Parcell's statement of "Don't tell me about the pain, just show me the baby". I truly hope that he is significantly better next year because if he isn't we're going to lose several games while Farrell figures out that he can't leave a player out there just because he used to be good and because he makes a lot of money.

 

Yes, we don't need stats to show that the 2016 Kimbrel was no where near what he was before.

 

I'm hopeful that 2016 was just a blip. Maybe he was pitching injured.

 

We don't need the 2012 Kimbrel, but a 2016 Kimbrel may not be enough to get us over the top.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

Oh, pulleeze. Craig Kimblel in 2016 was the definition of reputation over substance. He had the reputation of being able to throw strikes so the hitters were swinging at pitches they should have been laying off from. The guy couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a flashlight. Did you even see how many 3 (and 4) balls counts he had? At one time he was so wild that Farrell had to go out and get him. There was even a segment of the posters here who were begging for Koji to be the closer again.

 

I know there are a lot of excuses for why he pitched the way he did, and I don't buy many of them. I tend to fall back to Bill Parcell's statement of "Don't tell me about the pain, just show me the baby". I truly hope that he is significantly better next year because if he isn't we're going to lose several games while Farrell figures out that he can't leave a player out there just because he used to be good and because he makes a lot of money.

 

Nice post. I'm glad you have a passion for someone other than "Jose Iglesias." Then again, you've never been able to understand the "human element" with him, either. Let's see how Kimbrell does this season. I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling it won't matter with you anyway.

[moonslav59]

One very interesting note on Thornburg: he has a massive split differential, but it's a reverse split, and since his sample sizes are pretty close in numbers, I'm guessing he has been used more against lefties than normally should have occurred.

 

vs RHB (496 PAs) .732 OPS against (.279 BAbip)

 

vs LHB (414 PAs) .531 OPS against (.241 BAbip)

 

A 200 point career reverse split is probably pretty uncommon.

 

2016 saw him better than his career with both splits, but with an even higher differential (.222).

 

v R .635

v L .413

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by moonslav59

[Eddy Ballgame]

His time in laid back SD saw his WHIP steadily rise to more than 50% higher BEFORE he came here.

 

How did you feel about the Kimbrel trade? 😄 Do you actually root against him like S5Dewey roots against Bogaerts?

 

Let's re-visit in September....

[Eddy Ballgame]

One very interesting note on Thornburg: he has a massive split differential, but it's a reverse split, and since his sample sizes are pretty close in numbers, I'm guessing he has been used more against lefties than normally should have occurred.

 

vs RHB (496 PAs) .732 OPS against (.279 BAbip)

 

vs LHB (414 PAs) .531 OPS against (.241 BAbip)

 

A 200 point career reverse split is probably pretty uncommon.

 

2016 saw him better than his career with both splits, but with an even higher differential (.222).

 

v R .635

v L .413

 

 

 

 

 

By the way, stats are fun and I don't dismiss them, but Craig Kimbrel consistently threw 97-100 last year with a filthy hook, but seemed to get a "Welcome to the American League" strike zone from certain umpires. It definitely happens. My guess is that he'll adjust.

 

Maybe Craig Kimbrel will enter a tie game in the top of the 9th of game 7 of the World Series next year and strike out the side right before Xander Bogaerts jacks one over everything to win it in the bottom of the 9th. Does S5Dewey's head explode at the same time?

Edited December 9, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[Jack Flap]

I tend to fall back to Bill Parcell's statement of "Don't tell me about the pain, just show me the baby".

 

Definitely not using that one on my wife.

[Bellhorn04]

No, Cots Baseball Contracts has it at $32.5M/6, which includes the $1M buy-out. $31.5M + $1M. They do the same for every contract.

 

I'm pretty sure Speier gets his numbers from the right sources. He knows how to divide 5 into 32.5. Maybe there were some benefits included in Sale's contract that had to be included in the AAV.

 

Speier actually shows Sale's AAV at $6,769,562.50 - he must have got the number from his 'MLB sources' that he references. You don't just make up a number like that.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

That Theo is a smart guy...

 

Koji is the man.

 

Best of luck to him wherever he goes.

 

Theo is a clever little devil.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Buchholz ends up in a Cubs uniform at some point too.

[southpaw777]

Zero sense?

 

Beni hits RHPs better than LHPs.

 

We're not going to rest JBJ and Beni on the same day, so it's very easy to schedule Young to give both Beni and JBJ their normal rest days vs LHPs. With Betts, it doesn't matter as much. I'd rather have Betts "rested" vs RHPs, so maybe that's when Holt can get in a game or two in the OF, or we just play Young vs a few righties.

 

But he still hits both well...cant say the same or jbj, but jbjs D saves his ass. I understand giving a guy a blow. I was talkin about on a regular basis replacing Beni...doesn't make sense to me.

[southpaw777]

JBJ struggles with everybody,I'd let him do his struggling in Pawtucket until he gains at least a little consistency. I guess the bosses have forgotten how well Swihart hit and played LF last year before he was hurt. And he was watched closely with every move he made. Opening day should see an outfield of Swihart, Benintendi and Betts. Vazquez gets at least a month's trial. Panda about the same. Tell Swihart to throw away his catcher's mitt. Originally, he was to be a "try out" behind the plate. Didn't work, forget it. He was terrible right from the start. and looked great in left. Are these people blind?

 

This is now one helluva pitching staff. Don't f--k it up, John

 

Swiharts value is as a catcher. DD isnt moving anyone in hat OF. Swihart will start in AAA with a catchers mit. Id be willing to bet on it...id also be willing to bet tha there is a very good chance hes used in a trade at the deadline.

DD loves JBJ. Wanted him when he was in Detroit...if JBJ can it 260 with 25 hr and play sellar D im good wih that...not sure why your so tough on the kid. He had solid numbers last year

[southpaw777]

I'm happy with the trades and our current roster, but man-o-man, we've gutted the farm...

 

Sox prospects traded in the last year:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21. Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

27. Josh Pennington

30. Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

 

 

 

Some ofmthose layers had higher rankings because of graduated prospects and tades. Basabe wouldnt have been in the top 10 as well as a couple more...not to take anything away from he kid, ut he wasnt a true top 10 IMHO.

[moonslav59]

How did you feel about the Kimbrel trade? 😄 Do you actually root against him like S5Dewey roots against Bogaerts?

 

Let's re-visit in September....

 

You really need to ask how I felt about the trade? Or, was the smiley face a sign of sarcastic.

 

Look, I hated the trade (too many prospects + FA-like salary), but I never bad-mouthed Kimbrel. I expected a top 3 closer this year, and I still hated the trade.

 

In light of the salaries closers are getting now, the trade looks better in that area, but his 4 year steady decline now has me concerned about him not returning to top 3 or 5 closer status again.

 

Recently, I have said, I'm now okay with the trade, but I still think we should have rebuilt the pen in a different way 1-2 years ago.

 

I never root against any Sox player. I love to be proven wrong when it means a Sox player does better than I expected.

 

I've stuck by many, many, many Sox players, managers and GM much longer than the average fan, so I thinbk I've earned the right to be critical, when I see fit.

[moonslav59]

By the way, stats are fun and I don't dismiss them, but Craig Kimbrel consistently threw 97-100 last year with a filthy hook, but seemed to get a "Welcome to the American League" strike zone from certain umpires. It definitely happens. My guess is that he'll adjust.

 

I don't disagree, but that does not explain his 3 year decline with the SDP in the NL.

[southpaw777]

Theo is a clever little devil.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Buchholz ends up in a Cubs uniform at some point too.

 

WAs thinking the same thing...Lester, Rizzo,Lackey, Koji,Ross,etc...why not Buch?

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure Speier gets his numbers from the right sources. He knows how to divide 5 into 32.5. Maybe there were some benefits included in Sale's contract that had to be included in the AAV.

 

Speier actually shows Sale's AAV at $6,769,562.50 - he must have got the number from his 'MLB sources' that he references. You don't just make up a number like that.

 

He cited Cots. I checked all the bonuses listed under Pedey and Sale. I saw nothing that could cause the difference, but maybe other sources showed some bonus missed by Cots.

 

I don't make up numbers either, and Cots is probably the most respected source for salary information.

 

Here's the Sale info from Cots:

 

Chris Sale lhp

5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options

 

5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options

signed extension with Chicago White Sox 3/7/13

replaced 1 year/$0.6M deal signed 2/22/13

13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18

award bonuses, including $15,000 for All-Star selection

acquired by Boston in trade from Chicago White Sox 12/6/16

 

Here's Pedey's:

 

Dustin Pedroia 2b

8 years/$110M (2014-21)

 

8 years/$110M (2014-21)

signed extension with Boston 7/24/13, replacing final year and option in previous contract

$1M signing bonus

14:$12.5M, 15:$12.5M, 16:$13M, 17:$15M, 18:$16M, 19:$15M, 20:$13M, 21:$12M

undisclosed amount of money to be deferred

limited no-trade protection

first $100M contract for a second baseman

 

I'm trusting my source, but I realize it could be wrong, and then so could I.

 

[Hugh2]

Oh, pulleeze. Craig Kimblel in 2016 was the definition of reputation over substance. He had the reputation of being able to throw strikes so the hitters were swinging at pitches they should have been laying off from. The guy couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a flashlight. Did you even see how many 3 (and 4) balls counts he had? At one time he was so wild that Farrell had to go out and get him. There was even a segment of the posters here who were begging for Koji to be the closer again.

 

I know there are a lot of excuses for why he pitched the way he did, and I don't buy many of them. I tend to fall back to Bill Parcell's statement of "Don't tell me about the pain, just show me the baby". I truly hope that he is significantly better next year because if he isn't we're going to lose several games while Farrell figures out that he can't leave a player out there just because he used to be good and because he makes a lot of money.

 

Why didn't you buy them? did you have access to his medical records?

 

There are many ways for a pitchers performance to slip and injury to varying degrees is definitely one of them. It's plausible that it's B.S. but as far as I'm concerned that's mere speculation.

[moonslav59]

But he still hits both well...cant say the same or jbj, but jbjs D saves his ass. I understand giving a guy a blow. I was talkin about on a regular basis replacing Beni...doesn't make sense to me.

 

I never said Beni does not hit lefties well; I just said he hits RHPs better.

 

Young does not have to "rest" JBJ and Beni on the same day. My point was that it makes sense to give Beni and JBJ their normal days rest when we face a lefty- not a righty. Not on the same day, of course, and Young would be the guy that should play LF vs LHPs. Now, that causes an issue at DH, since Moreland is much better vs LHPs than RHPs, so maybe we have to weigh the differential, and we could end up deciding that Young at DH vs LHPs is better than him in LF vs LHPs, especially when Beni needs a rest.

 

If Swihart is on the 25 man roster at some point, he might be an option for giving an OF'er a rest.

 

Pablo sucks vs LHPs. Hernandez and Holt have actually been slightly better vs LHPs than RHPs despite being lefties, but neither is good enough to be our DH or LF'er vs LHPs on days an OF'er needs a rest.

[S5Dewey]

Nice post. I'm glad you have a passion for someone other than "Jose Iglesias." Then again, you've never been able to understand the "human element" with him, either. Let's see how Kimbrell does this season. I'll gladly admit if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling it won't matter with you anyway.

 

Oh, NO! You're not going to drag me into another debate on Iglesias

 

I have no problem with admitting when I'm wrong. I was one of Hanley's biggest critics in 2015 but I was on his bandwagon BIG TIME by July of 2016. And as critical as I've been of Sandoval (a/k/a The Fat man) I'd like nothing better than to be proven wrong about him, too.

[moonslav59]

Some ofmthose layers had higher rankings because of graduated prospects and tades. Basabe wouldnt have been in the top 10 as well as a couple more...not to take anything away from he kid, ut he wasnt a true top 10 IMHO.

 

You can say that about any prospect, and I bet Basabe would have become a top 10 prospect within a year or two, even if Margot and Guerra hadn't been traded. After all, he was ranked 7th before this week's trades, so plug Margot back in, and he's 8th. (Guerra would not be ahead of him today.)

 

I'm fine with throwing out Cecchini and TShaw and Escobar and the two guys ranked 30 and above, but that still leaves 15 guys with some sort of serious promise, at least at the time of the trades....4 with excellent hopes.

[S5Dewey]

How did you feel about the Kimbrel trade? 😄 Do you actually root against him like S5Dewey roots against Bogaerts?

 

Let's re-visit in September....

 

Wait a minute here. Please don't go putting words in to my mouth. It's not sanitary! You have NEVER seen me root against Bogaerts. Ya...I've said that he's not a GG defender but that's just stating a fact. I want for him to do better and better. Ya, I wanted him at 3B but only because (IMO) it would have helped THE TEAM.