A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Kimmi]

Projected best AL records and wearing black. Confusing.

 

Not confusing at all.

 

Happy for the short term, mourning for the long term.

[Kimmi]

It was so damn obvious that DD was about to empty the coffers. I said so in the forum post mortem after Cleveland handed you guys your lunch. Everyone has a window. Teams with money can extend that window, but eventually the spending catches up with teams and youth needs to shine through. You have 4 starters that are 26 or younger who are your best players. They are all cheap. NOW is the time to strike. If you wait longer, they become expensive and difficult to keep. I expected DD to deal away non MLB guys and for the most part, he did. Shaw was awful at the end of the yr and he was probably ticketed for a reserve role. To be honest with you, I wouldn't be surprised if the sox snagged Ramos and really finished this thing

 

The thing is, if you don't empty the coffers, then that window of opportunity never really closes.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not really true. The better you get, the worse picks you get and the lower the INTL amount you get and eventually you don't get access to the top talent

[Emp9]

I wouldn't call the next 3 years short term necessarily. 2020 was going to be a big decision year anyhow if you look at the number of players hypothetically coming off the books.

[Emp9]

2020 & 2021 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2016-payroll-salaries.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

Still great times to be a Sox fan. As it has been since Henry bought the team. 2017 will be his 16th year of ownership. Say what you want about him, but he's been trying to do stuff to win championships from Day One.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with first baseman Mitch Moreland, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The deal is pending a physical. Moreland will receive $5.5MM, Rosenthal’s colleague Jon Morosi tweets. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported earlier today that the two sides were in talks. Moreland is represented by RMG Baseball.

 

That puts us over the limit.

[Emp9]

by how much?

[moonslav59]

$6.5M C Sale

$5.5M Moreland

~$2.3M Thornburg (1st of 3 arbs)

 

Total: $14.3M

 

I had us $10M under the luxury tax limit, so we over the limit, unless we dump some salary.

 

It's not much of a tax, but not resetting the tax could cost us bigtime in future years.

[Emp9]

Maybe we do trade Buch after all?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we do trade Buch after all?

 

Maybe. Personally I don't think it's a big deal if they go over the limit a bit, because if they can get back under the limit for 2018 the rate will reset then.

[Emp9]

Maybe. Personally I don't think it's a big deal if they go over the limit a bit, because if they can get back under the limit for 2018 the rate will reset then.

 

It just seems a bit silly though, to not reset over a measly $4M+

[Hugh2]

$6.5M C Sale

$5.5M Moreland

~$2.3M Thornburg (1st of 3 arbs)

 

Total: $14.3M

 

I had us $10M under the luxury tax limit, so we over the limit, unless we dump some salary.

 

It's not much of a tax, but not resetting the tax could cost us bigtime in future years.

 

All it takes is going under 1 year to reset.

[notin]

$6.5M C Sale

$5.5M Moreland

~$2.3M Thornburg (1st of 3 arbs)

 

Total: $14.3M

 

I had us $10M under the luxury tax limit, so we over the limit, unless we dump some salary.

 

It's not much of a tax, but not resetting the tax could cost us bigtime in future years.

 

I expect Buchholz to be dealt. And also Elias. And maybe Hembree or Abad as well...

[moonslav59]

Maybe. Personally I don't think it's a big deal if they go over the limit a bit, because if they can get back under the limit for 2018 the rate will reset then.

 

Next year's market is a good one. One could say our roster looks set enough that we won't need anyone and can reset, but I think it would be wiser to find some salary to shed this year, so we can make a move next year, if needed.

 

I'm thinking Buch will be dealt...maybe for a prospect to replenish part of the farm... maybe for a Rp'er at a lower cost.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll be one of the few lamenting if/when they trade Buch, I guess. C'mon, keep the little bastard around for just one more year. He might come in handy.

[moonslav59]

I'll be one of the few lamenting if/when they trade Buch, I guess. C'mon, keep the little bastard around for just one more year. He might come in handy.

 

Resetting the luxury tax will "come in handy" for years to come.

[TedWilliams101]

I don't understand why Billionaires would care about having to dish out a few more million $ to improve the team (luxury tax). An extra $5 or $10 million with a payroll close to $200 million is supposed to make you think twice?

[iortiz]

I don't understand why Billionaires would care about having to dish out a few more million $ to improve the team (luxury tax). An extra $5 or $10 million with a payroll close to $200 million is supposed to make you think twice?

The Sox have "invested" in a lot of busts, and the money machine is still producing.

 

No, it shouldn't be a problem.

Edited December 7, 2016 by iortiz

[jacksonianmarch]

Then you don't know why they are billionaires. These guys are businessmen and they know that throwing away money isn't wise.

 

As for the prospect haul, who cares.

 

By 2020, Bogaerts will be on a $25+ mil per year deal. Betts is probably getting at least that much in his final year of arb. Bradley is looking like a $20 mil a year player at least by 2020. Benintendi will be in arb. Pedroia will be on the books at $14 mil. Price will still be getting $31 mil. To keep this team together, you'll have to allocate $130 mil of the $210 mil projected lux tax to 6 players with 2 of them near the end of their careers. $90 mil for 19 players, especially when two will probably be either replacement level or lower isn't feasible in this market

[jacksonianmarch]

Plus it's at a time where the Yankees are down

[moonslav59]

Updated...

 

2017 Red Sox Luxury Tax Budget

 

148.875M Signed (9): $31M Price, $22M Ramirez, $20.625M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $13.5M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrel, $6.5M Sale, $6.5M Young, $5.5M Moreland

$25.9M Projected Arb (10): $5.7M Bogaerts, $4.7M Pomeranz, $3.3M Bradley, $2.6M Kelly, $2.2M Thornburg, $2.0M Abad, $1.8M Ross, $1.7M Holt, $1.3M Leon, $600K Workman

$11.235M Others (21 x $535M minimum MLB salary): Betts, Benintendi, Rodriguez, Wright, Vazquez, Swihart, Smith, Barnes, Hernandez, Hembree, Owens, Johnson, Scott, Elias, Marrero, N Ramirez, Jerez, Brentz, ______, _______, _______

 

Total: $186.01M minus $250K frm Atlanta paying Kimbrel’s bonus= $185.76M

Add $12.9M to player pension fund and the total is:

 

$198.66M

 

That’s just $3.66M over the new luxury tax limit. One has to think we could get below that number without too much difficulty. We could trade Abad and save about $1.465M and Workman and save $65K. That’s about $1.53M total. I can’t see any other easy way to save another $2.13M. Trading Pablo (and cash) is highly unlikely now that Shaw and Moncada are gone, unless we acquire a 3Bman somehow. Trading Buch makes the most sense. We could use most of the money saved to find a cheaper SP for depth and maybe another pen arm, or we could keep below the luxury limit, so we could make a deal at the dedline without worrying about going over. Conversely, we can afford to wait until the deadline and trade Buch then at a pro-rated savings of about $4.5M. The only other way I could see us going would be to trade Pomeranz and save about $4.7M.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I don't understand why Billionaires would care about having to dish out a few more million $ to improve the team (luxury tax). An extra $5 or $10 million with a payroll close to $200 million is supposed to make you think twice?

 

That's how they became billionaires in the first place.

 

The new contract not only would apply a hefty tax on anything over the luxury limit, but we'd also lose out on revenue sharing money.

 

Obviously some owners don't care, but owners of companies making ungodly profits all over the world make similar decisions everyday.

[moonslav59]

Sox prospects traded in the last year:

 

Mid-season Baseball America Rankings:

#1 Moncada

#15 Espinosa

#39 Margot

#87 Guerra (52 to start the season/right after the trade)

#93 Kopech

 

Highest soxprospects.com ranking:

1. Moncada

3. Espinoza

3. Margot

3. Cecchini

5. Kopech

6. Guerra

7. Basabe

10. Dubon

12. T Shaw (not a prospect when traded)

12. Wendell Rijo

13. Logan Allen

13. Pat Light

14. Edwin Escobar (claimed off waivers)

18. Basabe (the other one)

20. Carlos Asuaje

21, Victor Diaz

21. Jonathan Aro

30, Aaron Wilkerson

40. Jose Almonte

 

[moonslav59]

We've traded a lot of youth, but Papi, Uehara, Ziegler, Hill and Tazawa are gone. That makes us younger right off the top.

 

Ages under team control

28-30 Sale

31-32 or 36 Price (opt out)

28-30 Porcello

24-28 ERod

28-30 Pomeranz

32- 35Wright

32 Buchholz

(Owens, Johnson, Groome)

 

29-30 Kimbrel

28-30 Thornburg

27-30 C Smith

29- 30 J Kelly

28- 29 R Ross

27- 31 Barnes

(Elias, Abad, Hembree, Scott)

 

28-31 Leon

26-29 Vazquez

25- 29 Swihart

 

33-34 or 35 Ramirez

31 Moreland

(Sam Tavis/Ockimey)

 

33-38 Pedroia

29-31 Holt

 

24-26 Bogaerts

24-29 Hernandez

(Chatham)

 

30-32 or 33 Sandoval

(Rafael Devers/Bobby Dalbec)

 

22-27 Benintendi

33 C Young

 

27-30 Bradley

 

24-27 Betts

 

Not only d we have a roster with just about nobody past prime- hardly anyone is under team control beyond age 31 or 32!

 

I'm concerned about losing a lot of prospects, but it's not like we have a bunch of 34-37 year old players with 1-2 years left on their contracts.

 

[Wade Boggs]

I wouldn't move any pitching just for the sake of the 195 tax. I would wait until spring training. But everybody on this board is correct. I'm afraid by looking at all of this Bucholtz looks like the odd man out. But I would wait a little. The problem is DD doesn't roll like that. When your all in. It's all in.

[S5Dewey]

I wouldn't move any pitching just for the sake of the 195 tax. I would wait until spring training. But everybody on this board is correct. I'm afraid by looking at all of this Bucholtz looks like the odd man out. But I would wait a little. The problem is DD doesn't roll like that. When your all in. It's all in.

 

Besides, at the end of the day it is all about the money. JH didn't get rich by being an idiot. I'm confident that there are bean counters on Yawkey way who know how much more money they make with each progression into the playoffs and if they can spend $4.6M to make $8M they're going to do it.

[S5Dewey]

Resetting the luxury tax will "come in handy" for years to come.

 

I'm more concerned about what's going to happen in July of '17 than I am right now in terms of salary vs. LT. If the Sox are in the race as deeply as it seems they will be, come July they're going to be looking for one more player to push them over the top. When that happens the money that player earns is going to go toward our LT so it would be nice to have a bit of a cushion going into the season.

 

I've been a big proponent of Clay but he's the obvious choice to give us that cushion. Sometimes we have to make choices we don't want to make and that would be one of them for me.

[Jack Flap]

Hopefully we can get something good for Buch, not just a salary dump...though even with the pitching market being what it is, I'm not confident of that.

[cp176]

Hopefully we can get something good for Buch, not just a salary dump...though even with the pitching market being what it is, I'm not confident of that.

 

Money really isn't much good if you don't use it. Whatever floats your boat I guess but that is a fact. Many of the most wealthy people on the planet had the nuts to go out on many limbs taking many chances. John Henry is a very fortunate businessman for sure to have so many people worrying for him with respect to how much money he has and how much he can spend. Most of us have to face the tax man for sure. I honestly believe that we have people here on talksox who are more concerned with our beloved Red Sox payroll than our owner is.