A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[mvp 78]

Not just that. Curt Schilling demonstrated that it's the ability to throw a clutch strike whenever you need one that will keep getting starters out of trouble even when most of their best stuff has gone the way of the dinosaur. Pitching 3 wins in the 2007 playoffs with his arm held together by 2 fraying threads and about a gallon of Cortisone -- that happened because he was able to throw key strikes when he needed them, that's always been Schilling's calling card and the most important skill a starter can possibly have. Koji demonstrates that it isn't just starters, either.

 

So yeah, it's not necessarily just about finding the strike zone in general (strike/ball ratio) but about being able to make exactly the pitch you need exactly when you need it. A hard thrower will only go so far if he can't learn to do that (see also Beckett, Josh)

 

Is that a knock on Josh Beckett? The guy who shut down the Yanks in 2003, won a WS in 2007 and was fantastic in 2008?

[moonslav59]

Is that a knock on Josh Beckett? The guy who shut down the Yanks in 2003, won a WS in 2007 and was fantastic in 2008?

 

Beckett was on pace to become one of baseball's all time great WS and playoff performers ... then poof!

 

He's one example on why you can't rely on past "clutch" to project future "clutch".

[mvp 78]

Beckett was on pace to become one of baseball's all time great WS and playoff performers ... then poof!

 

He's one example on why you can't rely on past "clutch" to project future "clutch".

 

Poof = injuries

[Dojji]

Poof = also not being able to keep up as his stuff declined, which will happen to anyone injuries or not if they can't learn how to pitch and get those clutch strikes.

 

Beckett was a good thrower, but he was a thrower. He couldn't survive once his stuff declined from "awesome, among the best in the league" to merely "pretty good." Curt Schilling in his years in our uniform would have sold his soul to have the stuff Josh Beckett could throw in his worst year.

 

Worth pointing out that you can track Beckett's decline with Boston alongside Jason Varitek's to a certain extent. Beckett's great years in Boston were at least partly a product of Varitek, and his championship in Florida was partly a product of Ivan Rodriguez. That's not necessarily a knock on Beckett, but it is an incidation that he isn't the most creative or intelligent guy and needs some help with pitch selection. When he got it he was deadly, when he didn't... 2010.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Poof = injuries

 

Well, he only made two postseasons after 2007, and that was the 2008 & 2009 seasons, where something was certainly going wrong.

 

He did start 27 games in '08 and had a pretty good 32 starts in '09, but it seemed to me like he lost his "edge". He wasn't the fierce competitor he seemed liked he used to be. Maybe it was all a misperception on my behalf, either on who he was from 2003-2007 and/or afterwards.

[moonslav59]

Poof = also not being able to keep up as his stuff declined, which will happen to anyone injuries or not if they can't learn how to pitch and get those clutch strikes.

 

Beckett was a good thrower, but he was a thrower. He couldn't survive once his stuff declined from "awesome, among the best in the league" to merely "pretty good." Curt Schilling in his years in our uniform would have sold his soul to have the stuff Josh Beckett could throw in his worst year.

 

He seemed to reinvent himself in 2011, and I think it was then that injuries and age stared kicking in.

 

 

Worth pointing out that you can track Beckett's decline with Boston alongside Jason Varitek's to a certain extent. Beckett's great years in Boston were at least partly a product of Varitek, and his championship in Florida was partly a product of Ivan Rodriguez. That's not necessarily a knock on Beckett, but it is an incidation that he isn't the most creative or intelligent guy and needs some help with pitch selection. When he got it he was deadly, when he didn't... 2010.

 

I was highly critical of the decision to not have VTek catch Beckett in his 2009 playoff start, especially after VTek had been his personal caddy for several years up to that point. They wanted VMart's bat in the line-up instead.

[S5Dewey]

Not just that. Curt Schilling demonstrated that it's the ability to throw a clutch strike whenever you need one that will keep getting starters out of trouble even when most of their best stuff has gone the way of the dinosaur. Pitching 3 wins in the 2007 playoffs with his arm held together by 2 fraying threads and about a gallon of Cortisone -- that happened because he was able to throw key strikes when he needed them, that's always been Schilling's calling card and the most important skill a starter can possibly have. Koji demonstrates that it isn't just starters, either.

 

So yeah, it's not necessarily just about finding the strike zone in general (strike/ball ratio) but about being able to make exactly the pitch you need exactly when you need it. A hard thrower will only go so far if he can't learn to do that (see also Beckett, Josh)

 

Have you forgotten? There's no such thing as "clutch".

[moonslav59]

Have you forgotten? There's no such thing as "clutch".

 

So I'll light another cigarette

And try to remember to forget

Edited November 4, 2016 by moonslav59

[Dojji]

Have you forgotten? There's no such thing as "clutch".

 

Of course there's clutch. Clutch is like the lighthouse fallacy -- you define clutch by plays not botched and moves not screwed up because a player was calm in a highly emotional situation.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR breaks down our off season...

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-7.html

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Red Sox are also showing some interest [in Holland] and will attend the showcase, which is scheduled for Monday...

 

I hope we don't move the team to Holland.

 

[Emp9]

And, as of right now, he's plan C for 2017.

 

A- Leon (or Leon/Vazquez platoon)

B- Vazquez (or Vaz-Leon platoon)

C- Swihart as part of some sort of platoon.

 

I still think Plan A at the time (Vaz healthy) had much more to do with them discontinuing Plan C than Plan C itself. You're right though, I also think Swihart is still Plan C at least for the immediate future. I've no problems with him working on his defense/intangibles in AAA. Especially now that Beni completes our OF.

[moonslav59]

I still think Plan A at the time (Vaz healthy) had much more to do with them discontinuing Plan C than Plan C itself. You're right though, I also think Swihart is still Plan C at least for the immediate future. I've no problems with him working on his defense/intangibles in AAA. Especially now that Beni completes our OF.

 

Although many still view our catching group as a weakness, the fact that we have 3 guys to hope that one rises to the top is a lot more than the vast majority of MLB teams.

 

The fact is, our team catcher WAR placed 15th out of 30. One could argue that Leon's offensive burst brought that WAR up immensely, and that is not likely to happen again. I don't disagree with that but I also look at an enormous possibility to improve on these 2016 catcher numbers:

 

Catcher OPS

.468 Hanigan in 113 PAs

.500 Holaday in 35 PAs

.585 Vazquez in 184 PAs

 

That's 332 PAs of pathetic offense. That's 50 more PAs than Leon, so yeah, Leon's .845 is not likely repeatable, but so is the sub .550 OPS from the three listed above - to be replaced by more PAs from Leon and maybe Swihart and Vaz.

 

Our catcher OPS was .681 this year. I actually think a Leon-Vaz-Swi combo can do better than that in 2017.

 

[Spudboy]

Although many still view our catching group as a weakness, the fact that we have 3 guys to hope that one rises to the top is a lot more than the vast majority of MLB teams.

 

The fact is, our team catcher WAR placed 15th out of 30. One could argue that Leon's offensive burst brought that WAR up immensely, and that is not likely to happen again. I don't disagree with that but I also look at an enormous possibility to improve on these 2016 catcher numbers:

 

Catcher OPS

.468 Hanigan in 113 PAs

.500 Holaday in 35 PAs

.585 Vazquez in 184 PAs

 

That's 332 PAs of pathetic offense. That's 50 more PAs than Leon, so yeah, Leon's .845 is not likely repeatable, but so is the sub .550 OPS from the three listed above - to be replaced by more PAs from Leon and maybe Swihart and Vaz.

 

Our catcher OPS was .681 this year. I actually think a Leon-Vaz-Swi combo can do better than that in 2017.

 

 

 

If Leon does not fall off a cliff offensively and a healthy Swihart gets meaningful AB this is very possible.

[oldtimer]

Although many still view our catching group as a weakness, the fact that we have 3 guys to hope that one rises to the top is a lot more than the vast majority of MLB teams.

 

The fact is, our team catcher WAR placed 15th out of 30. One could argue that Leon's offensive burst brought that WAR up immensely, and that is not likely to happen again. I don't disagree with that but I also look at an enormous possibility to improve on these 2016 catcher numbers:

 

Catcher OPS

.468 Hanigan in 113 PAs

.500 Holaday in 35 PAs

.585 Vazquez in 184 PAs

 

That's 332 PAs of pathetic offense. That's 50 more PAs than Leon, so yeah, Leon's .845 is not likely repeatable, but so is the sub .550 OPS from the three listed above - to be replaced by more PAs from Leon and maybe Swihart and Vaz.

 

Our catcher OPS was .681 this year. I actually think a Leon-Vaz-Swi combo can do better than that in 2017.

 

 

With Leon's numbers in the second half falling off drastically (he is 5'10" and probably 230) and Vazquez offering little offensively we may have to hope that Swihart improves his defense so we can utilize his offense to improve our catching OPS.

[S5Dewey]

With Leon's numbers in the second half falling off drastically (he is 5'10" and probably 230) and Vazquez offering little offensively we may have to hope that Swihart improves his defense so we can utilize his offense to improve our catching OPS.

 

I'm a long way from giving up on Vazquez. In fact, I think he'll be our catcher on opening day. DD likes defense. Besides, he spent time in Pawtucket working on his offense - or so I hear - and he had at least one XBH in limited appearances after he came back.

[moonslav59]

With Leon's numbers in the second half falling off drastically (he is 5'10" and probably 230) and Vazquez offering little offensively we may have to hope that Swihart improves his defense so we can utilize his offense to improve our catching OPS.

 

I don't think Vaz is going to repeat .585.

 

I think it should be easy for anyone to improve on the .475 OPS of the combination of Hanigan and Holday (148 PAs).

 

I think these two points could and should balance out the expected decline form Leon.

[moonslav59]

I'm a long way from giving up on Vazquez. In fact, I think he'll be our catcher on opening day. DD likes defense. Besides, he spent time in Pawtucket working on his offense - or so I hear - and he had at least one XBH in limited appearances after he came back.

 

I'm a big believer in Vazquez, too. I'm not sure he will beat out Leon by opening day, but I don't think the job is decided.

[Spudboy]

I think that many here are overstating Swihart's defensive deficiencies.

 

He is not a huge liability behind the plate. He is just not as good as the other two options at the moment.

 

He can improve his defense. His bat is ready now.

[moonslav59]

I think that many here are overstating Swihart's defensive deficiencies.

 

He is not a huge liability behind the plate. He is just not as good as the other two options at the moment.

 

He can improve his defense. His bat is ready now.

 

Agreed.

 

Many forget that VTek was not a great defender until about age 31-32.

 

At least Swihart has a good arm (39% CS rate in the minors).

 

I've not given up on Swihart as a catcher, but I've just always been higher on Vaz.

[Nick]

Agreed.

 

Many forget that VTek was not a great defender until about age 31-32.

 

At least Swihart has a good arm (39% CS rate in the minors).

 

I've not given up on Swihart as a catcher, but I've just always been higher on Vaz.

 

We need to be patient with a kid such as Swihart. He's under team control for another five years. He can hit major league pitching.

[Dojji]

I think that many here are overstating Swihart's defensive deficiencies.

 

He is not a huge liability behind the plate. He is just not as good as the other two options at the moment.

 

He can improve his defense. His bat is ready now.

 

And instead of give him that chance last year, when none of the other catchers were hitting and the team was flailing in May, they moved him off position to get his bat in the lineup

 

The fact of the matter is that for whatever reason, Swihart's bat is way ahead of his glove, to the point that despite possibly being the best option going forward, he's not the best fit here. Our rotation isn't strong enough to carry a raw defender at the dish and we're trying to win right now. If there's a single worst possible position to carry a "project" while you have championship ambitions, it's catcher. There were plenty of reports that our pitchers don't want to throw to him and don't trust his hands and judgment, especially if they could be throwing to Vazquez or Leon instead. Building trust with your pitchers is the single most important skillset of a catcher, more important than hitting and more important than athleticism, and Swihart doesn't have it right now. Also, FWIW, he seemed to struggle badly with Wright's knuckler, yet another indictment of his talents as a receiver. Since Steven Wright is looking like a major part of the rotation next year, maybe even the #3 starter, that's an issue -- hardly insurmountable, but something a manager playing Swihart regularly would have to cope with..

 

It's very clear the team is reluctant to trust him defensively or turn him loose full-time to learn the catcher's position at the big league level regardless of the fact that the bat is probably big league right now. He's either going to wind up playing at another position to shoehorn his bat into the lineup, or being traded to another team that's willing to give him the full time big league time he needs to straighten out his defensive game out. Moving to a small market that's willing to sink years of big league playing time into developing a potential star would probably be the best thing for Swihart's career right now.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Dojji

[S5Dewey]

I'm a big believer in Vazquez, too. I'm not sure he will beat out Leon by opening day, but I don't think the job is decided.

 

I don't think it's decided. IMO it will be decided in ST. Leon has come back to earth, dragging his OPS back to real life at ~.600, which is about the same as Vazquez. The difference between the two is that Leon's .600 is skewed by the time he was >.800 while Vaz .600 is the product of having consistently been a poorer than average hitter. We rode Leon's streak while he was hot but now he's the Leon we bought from the Nats with a BA below the Mendoza line and an OPS of <.500.>

 

And in a related issue....

I'm never sure how many appearances constitute a meaningful sample size and IMO "meaningful sample size" differs depending on what one wants to get from it. For me when talking about an established player, one year is meaningful in determining what a player probably "is", but it has little to no bearing on what they're going to do in their very next AB. Leon is a good example of that. During his short career Leon has been an abysmally poor hitter and if one looked at his previous year they'd think this guy will only get a hit in about 1 in 5 AB's, but he went through a period of time when it seemed like he couldn't make an out.

 

That's why I put more stock in recent appearances than I do in a career average and why I will usually ride a hot hand. If a reserve player goes 3-4 in one game I'd be sure he got to play in the next game. I like to think of in-season statistics in terms of a one month rolling average, all the while realizing that this player may go into the dumpster tomorrow. That's why I found it frustrating to watch Leon flailing away at the ball during the last part of the season while Vaz was on the bench. We didn't know what Vaz had offensively but IMO it was probably better than what Leon was producing, with no drop off in defense.

 

Which brings me back around to why I think Vazquez will be our opening day catcher! He spent some time with the Pawsox working on the offensive side of his game, and even if it didn't work he's still going to be better beside the plate than Leon and at least as good behind it. And if he did learn in Pawtucket... his offense is a plus.

[Dojji]

If I had to pick one catcher from day 1 who I wanted to get most of the at bats from the catcher's position it would be Vazquez, with Leon backing him up. Vazquez is the player most likely to live up to his floor if not his ceiling with extended playing time. He's got the tools to be an adequate hitter, what he lacks is experience and the best way to get it is to play every day, or as close to every day as a catcher can normally handle

 

If pitchers don't want to throw to Swihart, and there were definitely some rumblings about this in the last year plus, I'll take that as a sign that Swihart isn't ready to win their confidence. There's a reason why individual "caddies" or special pitcher-catcher relationships are condoned and even encouraged -- confidence of a pitcher in their catcher is a critical part of pitchers' performance, absolutely essential in many cases, and ignoring it risks wrecking certain pitchers' seasons. Our rotation isn't strong enough to risk having some of our pitchers struggling with their catcher as well as the opponent. If Swihart is not a guy who can inspire confidence in our starting pitchers, he should not be catching regularly.

 

Porcello and Wright in particular seemed to have various issues with Swihart for various reasons. Those two are going to be important in the division chase this year, in fact they both project to be in our top 3 if healthy. The third of the 3, Price, is almost untried with Swihart, but the ugly start to Price's season is... suggestive. The whole pitching staff struggled while he caught regularly with the possible exception of E-Rod who may very well just be that good. Development time for Swihart at the big league level at the catcher's position may very well be a luxury we can't afford, especially since at the very least our defense is locked in with the other 2 guys.

 

There's a reason why I think Swihart would have been better served if he had been drafted by a smaller market -- small market teams have junktime years where they can afford the luxury of letting a guy like Swihart learn on the job. We can't. Not next year and not for the next few, and possibly (hopefully?) not ever. That limits what we can do with a guy whose development is this unbalanced -- the talent is definitely there on the defensive end, but we simply do not have the luxury of time to let him develop the acumen to go with it, not when he has so far to go still, and not when we're trying to win World Championships with a rotation best described as "okay to pretty good."

 

As for what to do with him -- put him on ice in the minors. If he's still having issues as a receiver in May or June, and we could use his bat somewhere else, I'll play him somewhere else. If, and I think this very possible, Swihart has all the physical tools of the catcher and none of the intellectual ones, it's too late in his development to be clinging stubbornly to potential. Get his bat into the majors and into the lineup whatever it takes to get it there.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, Vasquez has the pre-reqs for the position. Baseball is so specialized now. Catcher used to be for the fat guy who couldn't run but had quick hands and didn't mind being in a crouch. Now, it is a defensive premium position. Vazquez has the chops there. He just cannot be entirely abysmal with the bat, or he will be a backup. The only question I have is if the sox feel Vasquez has already proven that he's a backup or if he gets another shot. Also, for as terrible a market for FAs as there is, there is a good dual threat catcher on the market, albeit coming off injury. I wonder if Ramos becomes a sox target, especially on a prove-it type deal

[Spudboy]

And instead of give him that chance last year, when none of the other catchers were hitting and the team was flailing in May, they moved him off position to get his bat in the lineup

 

The fact of the matter is that for whatever reason, Swihart's bat is way ahead of his glove, to the point that despite possibly being the best option going forward, he's not the best fit here. Our rotation isn't strong enough to carry a raw defender at the dish and we're trying to win right now. If there's a single worst possible position to carry a "project" while you have championship ambitions, it's catcher. There were plenty of reports that our pitchers don't want to throw to him and don't trust his hands and judgment, especially if they could be throwing to Vazquez or Leon instead. Building trust with your pitchers is the single most important skillset of a catcher, more important than hitting and more important than athleticism, and Swihart doesn't have it right now. Also, FWIW, he seemed to struggle badly with Wright's knuckler, yet another indictment of his talents as a receiver. Since Steven Wright is looking like a major part of the rotation next year, maybe even the #3 starter, that's an issue -- hardly insurmountable, but something a manager playing Swihart regularly would have to cope with..

 

It's very clear the team is reluctant to trust him defensively or turn him loose full-time to learn the catcher's position at the big league level regardless of the fact that the bat is probably big league right now. He's either going to wind up playing at another position to shoehorn his bat into the lineup, or being traded to another team that's willing to give him the full time big league time he needs to straighten out his defensive game out. Moving to a small market that's willing to sink years of big league playing time into developing a potential star would probably be the best thing for Swihart's career right now.

 

I never heard one word of pitchers discontent with Swihart.

 

As for your post, it is an example of what I said.

[Dojji]

I agree. I was a little vague about it but that's more or less how I feel about things. Vazquez' floor is an excellent defense guy who won't hit much, that's the "floor" I intended to imply he'd "live up to" in the prior post -- I was taking that as given and moving on to the important matter when I felt that the best way to proceed is to give Vazquez the maximum possible playing time to see if his bat could improve through experience.

 

That said I do expect Leon, at least early on, to feature prominently. It's bad odds that Leon is anything much more than an illusion offensively, but his arrival as a sudden 2 way threat put Boston over the top at a key time in their season, he's earned a chance to fail. My position overall is that he will fail, and Vazquez will make himself the superior option.

 

Definitely not in favor of experimenting with Wilson Ramos. To be frank about it, the guy's spent most of his career as a part timer and he's got injury concerns. The man's spent 6 years in the majors and only 2 of them, including this year, were particularly good. That's not great odds for blowing big money on the guy.

 

A true two way threat as a catcher is Salvador Perez, and that guy I'd give my right arm to see this team go get, and you want him on the Yankees just as bad, everyone who really knows baseball wants a guy like Perez. If I was building a Franchise I'd pick Perez over Trout or Betts or Lindor or an ace SP because nothing is as important to a franchise as an elite catcher. Wilson Ramos is not Salvador Perez nor is he an elite catcher, but he's gonna fool someone into paying as if he is. I don't want it to be us.

Edited November 6, 2016 by Dojji

[Maxbialystock]

Why no mention of CERA in all these catcher comparisons?

[jacksonianmarch]

Because CERA is only useful when it supports your argument, lol

[Dojji]

CERA is not a valuable statistic. We're moving away from evaluating purely based on ERA for pitchers, I don't know why people think ERA for catchers is such a great idea.