Porcello and the Cy Young

[bosoxmal]

I remembr checking the odds on this back in the spring, and saw Porcello at 1000-1. What is he now? Odds-On? I never bet sports, so I was doing a general check on RS pitchers. Will we get both AL awards?

[sk7326]

Kluber, Sale and Porcello will be very close. Fortunately, the Cy vote is usually entirely on individual merit. Kluber is perhaps a tiny bit ahead of the other two - but hard to argue with any.

[Thunder]

I think Porcello has it locked up. Shouldn't be very much deliberation among the voters.

[Kimmi]

Kluber, Sale and Porcello will be very close. Fortunately, the Cy vote is usually entirely on individual merit. Kluber is perhaps a tiny bit ahead of the other two - but hard to argue with any.

 

I'd have to agree that Kluber is ahead of the others by a tad. As you said, though, I really couldn't argue with the others.

[Kimmi]

I think Porcello has it locked up. Shouldn't be very much deliberation among the voters.

 

He's certainly deserving, but saying he has it locked up is a bit of a stretch.

[sk7326]

I think Porcello has it locked up. Shouldn't be very much deliberation among the voters.

 

it is possible. voters are not as hypnotized by pitcher wins as they used to be though - and that is a good thing.

[d-money]

I don't get the love affair with kluber. So he has more strikeouts. What else? Porcello has been pitching well in big games

[Dojji]

I see Kluber's strikeouts and raise with Porcello's league leading WHIP, which is a much more fundamentally important number.

[sk7326]

I see Kluber's strikeouts and raise with Porcello's league leading WHIP, which is a much more fundamentally important number.

 

not when related to pitcher performance - although it says a lot of team run prevention ... Porcello is the probable choice because pitcher wins can hypnotize. He is also coincidentally entirely worthy.

[moonslav59]

Wins should not be a major factor in winning the Cy young award.

 

ERA-

69 Porcello

72 Kluber, Tanaka, A Sanchez

75 Wright, Verlander

76 Sale, Happ

 

WHIP

0.98 Porcello

1.01 Verlander

1.03 Sale

1.05 Kluber

1.08 Tanaka

1.13 Estrada

1.15 Quintana

1.17 Happ

1.18 Price

 

WAR

5.2 Kluber/Sale

4.9 Price

4.7 Porcello/Tanaka

4.6 Quintana

 

Wins (and losses)

21-4 Porcello

17-8 Price

18-9 Kluber

14-4 Tanaka

16-9 Sale

12-11 Quintana

 

Porcello is first in the numbers that mean the most to me: ERA- and WHIP. The 21-4 record seals the deal for me.

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not big on K's but the one K stat that matters to me is K/BB ratio:

 

6.0 Porcello

5.7 Tomlin

5.0 Sale

4.8 Price

(Kluber is 9th at 4.0)

 

[Nick]

Is he Cy Young worthy? His stats say yes....and he passes the eye test.

[SinceYaz]

Wins should not be a major factor in winning the Cy young award.

 

ERA-

69 Porcello

72 Kluber, Tanaka, A Sanchez

75 Wright, Verlander

76 Sale, Happ

 

WHIP

0.98 Porcello

1.01 Verlander

1.03 Sale

1.05 Kluber

1.08 Tanaka

1.13 Estrada

1.15 Quintana

1.17 Happ

1.18 Price

 

WAR

5.2 Kluber/Sale

4.9 Price

4.7 Porcello/Tanaka

4.6 Quintana

 

Wins (and losses)

21-4 Porcello

17-8 Price

18-9 Kluber

14-4 Tanaka

16-9 Sale

12-11 Quintana

 

Porcello is first in the numbers that mean the most to me: ERA- and WHIP. The 21-4 record seals the deal for me.

 

 

Perfect presentation and most agreeable conclusion, Moon.

 

I have been impressed with Porcello's demeanor while pitching. Cool as a cucumber. Face of a automaton, deals with a dagger.

 

And he walks no one. Hardly. He doesn't have games where he gives up 5 hits and four walks. This is more than I imagined he could be. I thought he would rebound from last season but he's been money since last August.

[kenmeister]

I also like to look at Quality Starts and Quality Start Percentage. In both he's second to Verlander - hopefully evens up to a tie after today's game.

[southpaw777]

I'm not big on K's but the one K stat that matters to me is K/BB ratio:

 

6.0 Porcello

5.7 Tomlin

5.0 Sale

4.8 Price

(Kluber is 9th at 4.0)

 

 

Good numbers all around Moon. Yes K/BB is the way to look at it in this situation. Hes walking less guys and still striking out a lot. Maybe not the most, but the best when compared to how many potential unearned runs hes walking.

They are all deserving and nobody should complain if either of the three win it. My vote is for Porcello.

[bosoxmal]

Two Ray's off-booth Rat's announcers just ranted about Porcello calling the Cy Young a "sure-thing" for him.

[sk7326]

Wins should not be a major factor in winning the Cy young award.

 

ERA-

69 Porcello

72 Kluber, Tanaka, A Sanchez

75 Wright, Verlander

76 Sale, Happ

 

WHIP

0.98 Porcello

1.01 Verlander

1.03 Sale

1.05 Kluber

1.08 Tanaka

1.13 Estrada

1.15 Quintana

1.17 Happ

1.18 Price

 

WAR

5.2 Kluber/Sale

4.9 Price

4.7 Porcello/Tanaka

4.6 Quintana

 

Wins (and losses)

21-4 Porcello

17-8 Price

18-9 Kluber

14-4 Tanaka

16-9 Sale

12-11 Quintana

 

Porcello is first in the numbers that mean the most to me: ERA- and WHIP. The 21-4 record seals the deal for me.

 

 

Kluber leads in FIP by a solid amount over 2-4. And the strikeouts matter as well. As I noted, Porcello probably wins - and there is no really wrong answer between him, Sale and Kluber.

[Palodios]

Kluber leads in FIP by a solid amount over 2-4. And the strikeouts matter as well. As I noted, Porcello probably wins - and there is no really wrong answer between him, Sale and Kluber.

 

FIP is determined by HR/9, BB/9, and K/9. Porcello wins BB/9, HR/9 is a push, and Kluber wins K/9.

 

FIP doesn't add much light because it is only determined by strikeout numbers in this case.

[Wade Boggs]

Two Ray's off-booth Rat's announcers just ranted about Porcello calling the Cy Young a "sure-thing" for him.

 

It is. He's right.

[vjcsmoke]

Porcello is making a very strong case for Cy Young. He's been our most reliable pitcher this season. And his performance is a huge reason why we're going to win the AL East title.

I think that has to factor into it. Not just the wins but the fact he pretty much carried us on his back for a large part of this season on a division winning club.

[greenwell]

I would say Porcello is a shoe in among starters. There's a few pitchers with similar stats except Porcello has more wins and quality starts and the others have more strikeouts. Wins definitely mean more than strikeouts. Britton definitely has a shot though, a 0.6 ERA and 0 blown saves is pretty impressive.

[User Name]

Britton has an 0.57 ERA and 0.837 WHIP.

[Kimmi]

I don't think anyone is saying that Porcello is not deserving. I have been one of his biggest supporters since he joined the team and Ben and I would love to see him win the Cy. The race is tight enough that I have no problem with Porcello winning it.

 

If I'm being as objective as possible, however, I have to give it Kluber, by a hair.

 

The voters will likely go with Porcello, mostly because of his 22 Wins.

[sk7326]

FIP is determined by HR/9, BB/9, and K/9. Porcello wins BB/9, HR/9 is a push, and Kluber wins K/9.

 

FIP doesn't add much light because it is only determined by strikeout numbers in this case.

 

Strikeouts are a pitcher accomplishment - fascist as they are ... other outs are on some level team accomplishments. Both guys have "unnatural" BABIPs so they are basically neutral on that front if one tries to infer some "not getting quality contact" from either.

[sk7326]

I would say Porcello is a shoe in among starters. There's a few pitchers with similar stats except Porcello has more wins and quality starts and the others have more strikeouts. Wins definitely mean more than strikeouts. Britton definitely has a shot though, a 0.6 ERA and 0 blown saves is pretty impressive.

 

Britton certainly does. There has never been a closer who has deserved the award - and the years closers have won MVPs are the equivalent to that year Mark Moseley won the NFL MVP.

[Palodios]

Strikeouts are a pitcher accomplishment - fascist as they are ... other outs are on some level team accomplishments. Both guys have "unnatural" BABIPs so they are basically neutral on that front if one tries to infer some "not getting quality contact" from either.

 

Personally, I'm a "An out is an out" kind of guy myself, but what I'm saying is that while FIP is usually useful... it doesn't really tell us anything in this particular case.

 

Also, with Porcello's recent high strikeout, 1BB/0HR performance, he dropped his FIP from 3.48 to 3.36, so even that is pretty close now.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Palodios

[moonslav59]

Kluber leads in FIP by a solid amount over

2-4. And the strikeouts matter as well. As I noted, Porcello probably wins - and there is no really wrong answer between him, Sale and Kluber.

 

I never get why K's are viewed as highly as WHIP and ERA-. Porcello's last start wasn't as good as most others, but his FIP improves and his ERA- and WHIP got worse.

 

I get why people want a park and defense independent number, but it's just one small piece in the formula for determining who has done the best.

 

[mvp 78]

He should with the CY. Britton is good, but his team may miss the playoffs.

[S5Dewey]

He should with the CY. Britton is good, but his team may miss the playoffs.

 

IMO it's going to be difficult to NOT give the CY to the winningest pitcher in baseball, whose team also wins their division. Not to say that it's going to be impossible but I see it as Porcillo being the odds-on favorite and everyone else being a long-shot.

[mvp 78]

Porcello basically anchored a staff that was deemed a question mark in the offseason for a team that will go from last place to first place. I think that means something to a lot of voters.