Postseason Happenings 2016

[harmony]

2) We can get something good for Buch- maybe a 3Bman or 2 decent RP'ers.

With a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 and a 2017 salary of $13.5 million, Clay Buchholz has limited surplus value. The return in a trade might reflect a correspondingly limited surplus value.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah we're certainly not getting 2 quality relievers for Buch.

[moonslav59]

With a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 and a 2017 salary of $13.5 million, Clay Buchholz has limited surplus value. The return in a trade might reflect a correspondingly limited surplus value.

 

Look at all the teams hurting for a starter. Look at the FA market. Look what pitchers are getting for salary now.

 

$13.5M on a 1 year gamble like Buch is just what teams will overpay for.

[moonslav59]

Yeah we're certainly not getting 2 quality relievers for Buch.

 

I said decent RP'ers not great.

 

We got Smith & Elias for Miley.

[mvp 78]

I said decent RP'ers not great.

 

We got Smith & Elias for Miley.

 

I'm not sure Elias is decent.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Elias is decent.

 

At the time of the trade he was, and Smith was way more than decent (on paper when healthy).

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure Elias is decent.

Indecent possibly.

[Bellhorn04]

I said decent RP'ers not great.

 

We got Smith & Elias for Miley.

 

For Miley and Aro.

 

Miley was coming off a 2.5 bWAR and was under control for 3 years quite cheaply.

[moonslav59]

Indecent possibly.

 

At the time of the trade, Elias was coming off two seasons with 49 starts for the Mariners. While his WAR was just 2.0 combined, he looked like he could be a decent long relief/spot starter type at the time.

 

His ERA- was 106 from 2014-2015, but Miley's was 109 in the same time period.

 

I'd trade Buch for Smith and Elias types this winter and hope they do better.

 

After all, Buch is just a hope and a prayer too.

 

The idea is to save money which would allow us to sign a guy like Beltran.

 

We fill both of our biggest needs (DH and RP) without going over the limit.

[harmony]

Seattle could offer D.J. Peterson, who was drafted as a third baseman with No. 12 pick in the 2013 draft.

 

Peterson's stock has dropped precipitously since twice being ranked among the Top 100 prospects.😜

[moonslav59]

Seattle could offer D.J. Peterson, who was drafted as a third baseman with No. 12 pick in the 2013 draft.

 

Peterson's stock has dropped precipitously since twice being ranked among the Top 100 prospects.😜

 

I think you undervalue Buch based on his projected WAR.

 

He finished the season strong and will be in his final contract year looking to free agency the following year.

 

He's a big gamble, but the upside is much higher than what some other injury-prone or mediocre starters have gotten in recent years.

 

Cashner just got $10M and has never come close to the 3-4 great to phenomenal stretches Buch has had over his career.

 

90 year old bartolo Colon just got $12.5M.

 

Brett Anderson got $15M+ last year.

 

What would you suggest the offer be for Pomeranz?

[Bellhorn04]

I think you undervalue Buch based on his projected WAR.

 

He finished the season strong and will be in his final contract year looking to free agency the following year.

 

He's a big gamble, but the upside is much higher than what some other injury-prone or mediocre starters have gotten in recent years.

 

So we should keep him.

[mvp 78]

So we should keep him.

 

They should give him a lifetime contract at this point. His upside is just too great!

[Bellhorn04]

They should give him a lifetime contract at this point.

 

Like the one Wakefield had. Good thinking.

[Nick]

We keep talking about the need for two relievers....I only see one. Buch, Wright or Pomeranz will be in the bullpen. Carson Smith will eventually return.

 

Hell we don't really need to add anyone. This team is good enough to compete for Division title. We are f***ed because of Pablo signing.

[moonslav59]

We keep talking about the need for two relievers....I only see one. Buch, Wright or Pomeranz will be in the bullpen. Carson Smith will eventually return.

 

Hell we don't really need to add anyone. This team is good enough to compete for Division title. We are f***ed because of Pablo signing.

 

We had a horrible pen for much of 2016. How well we did near the end should not hide the fact that our pen was not good.

 

On top of that, we are losing 2-3 of our best pen guys from a bad year...

 

Ziegler

 

Uehara

 

Tazawa

 

 

Carson may not return until July, and even then, he may need an adjustment period.

 

We used 10 starters last year including 47 from our 6th starter and below, so I think counting on one of our 6 top starters as significant pen help could be wishful thinking.

 

Here's how our pen looks to me:

 

Kimbrel

______

______

R Ross

J Kelly

M Barnes

F Abad

 

Others: Buch or Wright, if we are lucky, C Smith, Hembree, Scott, Martin, Owens, Johnson, N Ramirez, Workman

 

[harmony]

I think you undervalue Buch based on his projected WAR.

 

He finished the season strong and will be in his final contract year looking to free agency the following year.

 

He's a big gamble, but the upside is much higher than what some other injury-prone or mediocre starters have gotten in recent years.

Cashner just got $10M and has never come close to the 3-4 great to phenomenal stretches Buch has had over his career.

Clay Buchholz has been valued at 7.7 fWAR over the past four seasons, including 0.5 fWAR this year.

 

Andrew Cashner, who is two years younger than Buchholz, has been valued at 8.1 fWAR over the past four seasons, including 0.4 fWAR this year.

 

Cashner got a one-year, $10 million contract but did not cost the Texas Rangers a draft pick. Buchholz has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract.

 

A Buchholz trade partner would need to send talent in return unless the Red Sox give him away.

 

Cashner and Buchholz provide an interesting comp.

[Bellhorn04]

We had a horrible pen for much of 2016. How well we did near the end should not hide the fact that our pen was not good.

 

On top of that, we are losing 2-3 of our best pen guys from a bad year...

 

Ziegler

 

Uehara

 

Tazawa

 

 

Carson may not return until July, and even then, he may need an adjustment period.

 

We used 10 starters last year including 47 from our 6th starter and below, so I think counting on one of our 6 top starters as significant pen help could be wishful thinking.

 

Here's how our pen looks to me:

 

Kimbrel

______

______

R Ross

J Kelly

M Barnes

F Abad

 

Others: Buch or Wright, if we are lucky, C Smith, Hembree, Scott, Martin, Owens, Johnson, N Ramirez, Workman

 

 

I think what they will probably do is make one acquisition and throw stuff at the wall for the remainder.

[Dojji]

Wouldn't mind if that acquisition was Luke Hochevar. If the guys who AREN'T about to be hideously overpaid he looks like one of the better options.

[moonslav59]

I think what they will probably do is make one acquisition and throw stuff at the wall for the remainder.

 

I think you are right, but if they go one vs two, it should be a solid guy- not a big question mark one. That could get costly, however.

[Kimmi]

So we should keep him.

 

We should definitely keep him.

 

We need him.

[moonslav59]

Let's assume for a moment that the Sox will try to reset the luxury tax this winter by staying under the limit. They may not this winter, but let's just go with this scenario for a bit. That leaves us with about $10M to try and upgrade our pen, DH and possibly 3B.

 

Let's say we can get Ziegler and Uehara for $10M combined for argument's sake.

 

So, we keep Buch and add 2 RP'ers and are locked in with what we have all year. Any addition in salary mid season will need and offset in salary traded away.

 

I think we'd be looking pretty good, but would this be better?

 

We trade Buch for a RP'er similar to Ziegler in ability but at a low cost (min salary).

 

With the $13.5M, we now have $23.5M to spend. Let's say we can get Beltran for $37M/2 ($18.5M a year). With the left over $5M, we sign Uehara.

 

So, in theory, we could have Beltran, Uehara and someone close to Ziegler's skill or Buch, Ziegler and Uehara.

 

Which gives us a better chance to win?

 

I realize the loss of Buch makes Owens/Johnson/Elias our 6th starter, but Beltran should play nearly every day.

[harmony]

Danny Duffy (more like a 3 starter)- last arb year

Matt Shoemaker (more like a 3 starter)

Yordano Ventura

Rubby de la Rosa

The Diamondbacks have non-tendered Rubby de la Rosa:

 

 

The non-tender of catcher Welington Castillo could impact the trade market for Boston's catchers.

Edited December 3, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The Diamondbacks have non-tendered Rubby de la Rosa:

 

 

Interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

The Diamondbacks have non-tendered Rubby de la Rosa:

 

 

Whoa, grab him. Depth candidate.

[a700hitter]

Whoa, grab him. Depth candidate.

How much does he make?

[harmony]

How much does he make?

Rubby de la Rosa will earn whatever the highest bidder will pay.

 

De la Rosa was projected to earn $3 million in his second year of arbitration.

[a700hitter]

Rubby de la Rosa will earn whatever the highest bidder will pay.

 

De la Rosa was projected to earn $3 million in his second year of arbitration.

He would be rotation filler. If he would take a minor league contract, it would be a good move.

[harmony]

Whoa, grab him. Depth candidate.

Fans want to buy into the hype of their favorite team's young players and I suspect Red Sox fans have not abandoned the early hype on Rubby de la Rosa:

 

http://nesn.com/2013/02/pedro-martinez-thinks-rubby-de-la-rosa-could-become-one-of-baseballs-elite-players/

 

De la Rosa, who will be 28 years old on Opening Day 2017, has posted only 1.8 fWAR in four years of MLB service (and only 1.2 fWAR since his August 2012 trade to the Red Sox):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3862&position=P

 

De la Rosa apparently has concerning health issues:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17653903/rubby-de-la-rosa-arizona-diamondbacks-stem-cell-injection-injured-pitching-elbow

Edited December 3, 2016 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Fans want to buy into the hype of their favorite team's young players and I suspect Red Sox fans have not abandoned the early hype on Rubby de la Rosa:

 

http://nesn.com/2013/02/pedro-martinez-thinks-rubby-de-la-rosa-could-become-one-of-baseballs-elite-players/

 

De la Rosa, who will be 28 years old on Opening Day 2017, has posted on 1.8 fWAR in four years of MLB service (and only 1.2 fWAR since his August 2012 trade to the Red Sox):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3862&position=P

 

De la Rosa apparently has concerning health issues:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17653903/rubby-de-la-rosa-arizona-diamondbacks-stem-cell-injection-injured-pitching-elbow

 

Buch had health issues too.

 

Your method of value:

 

2016

 

Buch 0.5 WAR

RDLR 0.4 WAR

Edited December 3, 2016 by moonslav59