Lineup Discussions

[Bellhorn04]

Betts is an emerging player. He is 34th, in the AL, in OBP!!!! And 11th in RBIs!!! And he's still leading off? He could be moved to the second spot, first, see if the trend continues, and look for him in the 3, 4 or 5 hole after Papi leaves.

 

I can see possibly re-evaluating Mookie's spot in the order next year with no Papi.

[Maxbialystock]

The impact would be little? BRFORE tonight's game Betts was second in the AL in hitting with men on base. (over .400) The first time he comes to bat (20% of the time, at least) there is no one on base. AND, hittin in front of Papi, he would get even better pitches to hit! This BS of someting not broke, why fix it? is nonsense. Why is it not a good thing to get better?

 

It's not just a matter of, "it ain't broke." It's also a matter--fear, really--that shifting players around will break what has worked awfully well so far. Betts leads the team by a bunch in runs scored and is second in rbi's. His OPS just went by Bogaerts and is headed toward .900. He is comfortable leading off as few players are. He is 2d in dingers and leads the team in SB's. Pedroia, meanwhile, has an OPS of .816, which is the highest it's been since 2011, 5 years ago.

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of moving Pedroia down in the order. His numbers aren't all that good with runners in scoring position, 0.757 career ops, this is largely caused by a .649 ops with a runner on second only. The numbers are even worse this year.

 

This past winter, I suggested this line-up:

 

vs RHP vs LHPs

1) Betts

2) Bogey

3) Ortiz Pedey

4) Pedey Ortiz

5) HanRam

6) JBJ

7) Pablo Shaw

8) Young Castillo

9) Swi Vaz

 

Of course, much has changed since this, but the general jist of the top 5-6 hitters remains current. I also suggested hitting Pedey 5th with Papi and HanRam flipping 3rd and 4th depending on the arm of the pitcher.

 

[devildavid]

The impact would be little? BRFORE tonight's game Betts was second in the AL in hitting with men on base. (over .400) The first time he comes to bat (20% of the time, at least) there is no one on base. AND, hittin in front of Papi, he would get even better pitches to hit! This BS of someting not broke, why fix it? is nonsense. Why is it not a good thing to get better?

 

I'm with you on this. Mookie is a power bat, best to start the game with someone on base for him to drive in. It is worth trying to see how it impacts the offense. Sox have been losing a lot of one run games lately. With the pitching problems, it wouldn't hurt to score an extra run as much as possible.

[Kimmi]

I'm with you on this. Mookie is a power bat, best to start the game with someone on base for him to drive in. It is worth trying to see how it impacts the offense. Sox have been losing a lot of one run games lately. With the pitching problems, it wouldn't hurt to score an extra run as much as possible.

 

The thing to remember about making any baseball decision is that the effect of the move is largely offset by a counter effect. (There's a term for this in economics, but I can't remember what it is.) Therefore, the impact of making a lineup switch is not nearly as great as you might think it would be. Over the course of a season, switching 2 spots like #1 and #2 might be 2 runs. Then again, it might do more harm than good by taking players out of their comfort zones.

 

If our offense scuffles for a longer period, then it might make sense to shake things up. For the most part, however, they've been getting it done.

 

Bosoxmal does have a point about three lefties in a row.

[Bellhorn04]

Where are the 3 lefties in a row?

[Kimmi]

Where are the 3 lefties in a row?

 

There aren't three lefties in a row. I thought I read something about opposing managers salivating at our lineup seeing 3 righties followed by 3 lefties.

 

Never mind. LOL

[devildavid]

The thing to remember about making any baseball decision is that the effect of the move is largely offset by a counter effect. (There's a term for this in economics, but I can't remember what it is.) Therefore, the impact of making a lineup switch is not nearly as great as you might think it would be. Over the course of a season, switching 2 spots like #1 and #2 might be 2 runs. Then again, it might do more harm than good by taking players out of their comfort zones.

 

If our offense scuffles for a longer period, then it might make sense to shake things up. For the most part, however, they've been getting it done.

 

Bosoxmal does have a point about three lefties in a row.

 

I think his main point is that Pedroia fits the profile of a leadoff batter due to his OBP while Mookie fits the profile of a slugging RBI hitter as evidenced by his SLG. A good case can also be made for moving JBJ up in the batting order. My philosophy is to give the most plate appearances to the best hitters. I don't totally discount the psychological aspects like comfort level, but until changes are made you can't be certain how a player will hit in a different part of the order.

 

I just found an interesting article that suggests players might be more willing to experiment with the batting order than we imagine.

 

blue-jays-veterans-push-change-batting-order

[Bellhorn04]

The team's management has more data and more knowledge than we do, folks. It's comical to think any of us can do a better job with the batting order than they do.

[devildavid]

The team's management has more data and more knowledge than we do, folks. It's comical to think any of us can do a better job with the batting order than they do.

 

I disagree. I have witnessed, in my lifetime, New Coke and the J.C. Penney management disasters, among others. Management is often incompetent, despite the appearance that they have all the data and knowledge. The thing we fans lack knowledge of is the internal politics of any organization, which often is the cause of failure. Being on the inside of an organization does not always mean you make the best decisions. It all depends on how you are able to utilize the data and knowledge within the framework that management provides.

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. I have witnessed, in my lifetime, New Coke and the J.C. Penney management disasters, among others. Management is often incompetent, despite the appearance that they have all the data and knowledge. The thing we fans lack knowledge of is the internal politics of any organization, which often is the cause of failure. Being on the inside of an organization does not always mean you make the best decisions. It all depends on how you are able to utilize the data and knowledge within the framework that management provides.

 

All that is true. But also true is that your ideas about the batting order are based on gut feelings and old rules-of-thumb like 'highest OBP should lead off'.

 

Read Kimmi's comments on the batting order. She has looked into this stuff in great depth, including all the Sabrmetrics research. She knows what she's talking about.

[a700hitter]

I disagree. I have witnessed, in my lifetime, New Coke and the J.C. Penney management disasters, among others. Management is often incompetent, despite the appearance that they have all the data and knowledge. The thing we fans lack knowledge of is the internal politics of any organization, which often is the cause of failure. Being on the inside of an organization does not always mean you make the best decisions. It all depends on how you are able to utilize the data and knowledge within the framework that management provides.

LOL!! New Coke!! One of the stupidest management decisions of all time. They had a product that sold itself and they completely changed it. The backlash was so severe it almost rose to the level of a revolt. They spent millions on focus grouping that decision etc, and they couldn't have been more wrong. LOL!! And they were run by top business people unlike the ex-jocks, toadies and dopes in major league front offices.

[devildavid]

All that is true. But also true is that your ideas about the batting order are based on gut feelings and old rules-of-thumb like 'highest OBP should lead off'.

 

Read Kimmi's comments on the batting order. She has looked into this stuff in great depth, including all the Sabrmetrics research. She knows what she's talking about.

 

Highest OBP is not gut feeling, it is statistical. Old school gut feeling was to put a base stealer up first without regard to OBP or SB success rate. The emphasis on OBP has its roots in Moneyball which was not accepted by the old school gut feeling baseball people.

 

I'll let Kimmi speak for herself but I think she also would say that OBP is the biggest factor in offensive production.

[mvp 78]

LOL!! New Coke!! One of the stupidest management decisions of all time. They had a product that sold itself and they completely changed it. The backlash was so severe it almost rose to the level of a revolt. They spent millions on focus grouping that decision etc, and they couldn't have been more wrong. LOL!! And they were run by top business people unlike the ex-jocks, toadies and dopes in major league front offices.

 

http://www.obscure.org/~bob/stuff/coke.html

 

Stop letting the wool get pulled over your eyes!

[Bellhorn04]

Highest OBP is not gut feeling, it is statistical. Old school gut feeling was to put a base stealer up first without regard to OBP or SB success rate. The emphasis on OBP has its roots in Moneyball which was not accepted by the old school gut feeling baseball people.

 

I'll let Kimmi speak for herself but I think she also would say that OBP is the biggest factor in offensive production.

 

If highest OBP should lead off Ortiz should lead off.

[a700hitter]

http://www.obscure.org/~bob/stuff/coke.html

 

Stop letting the wool get pulled over your eyes!

I am usually very cynical and prone to conspiracy theories. I just remember that people really went nuts.

 

How is this for a very bad management decision -- Starbucks changing its rewards program?

[Nick]

How about

 

1 Xander Bogaerts.....he's a line drive, contact hitter with good eyes. He's fast enough not to hurt our running game on top. Give him an extra at bat.

2 Bradley Jr..............this will eliminate defensive shift when he comes up with Xander on base. He is by far the best base runner going from 1st to 3rd.

3 Mookie Betts..........he has the power to thrive at this spot. He's a 30 HR guy.

4 Encarnacion...........free agent

5 Dustin Pedroia.......I think he can hit from any spot in the order

6 Hanley Ramirez

7 Travis Shaw

8 Swihart

9 Benintendi

 

I can live with this line up

[a700hitter]

If highest OBP should lead off Ortiz should lead off.

I was thinking the same thing. It would take 3 hits to score him and it would definitely hurt run production.

[S5Dewey]

http://www.obscure.org/~bob/stuff/coke.html

 

Stop letting the wool get pulled over your eyes!

 

My understanding of the switch from sugar to corn syrup came about because management wanted to make the product sweeter by adding more sugar. They went to corn syrup because they found that amount of sugar wouldn't dissolve in that volume of water. How scary is THAT?

 

And BTW, the day I learned that was the day I decided to swear off Coke.

[devildavid]

If highest OBP should lead off Ortiz should lead off.

 

You can take his inability to run into consideration. But Papi batting third takes into account both OBP and SLG. Put all your high OBP hitters in general at the top of the batting order.

[Bellhorn04]

You can take his inability to run into consideration. But Papi batting third takes into account both OBP and SLG. Put all your high OBP hitters in general at the top of the batting order.

 

Betts leads the team in stolen bases; his speed is a big part of why he's a good leadoff guy.

[devildavid]

Betts leads the team in stolen bases; his speed is a big part of why he's a good leadoff guy.

 

Speed does nothing if you don't get on base.

[Bellhorn04]

Speed does nothing if you don't get on base.

 

It's the whole package - OBP, speed and OPS. The team thinks Mookie is our best combo of these ingredients, and I agree.

[Bellhorn04]

Who hits leadoff has never been strictly about OBP. Ellsbury has never been an OBP beast. In 2013 for example he was 5th on the team in OBP-similar to where Mookie is now. There were many guys who had better OBP's than he did during his time with the Sox.

[a700hitter]

You definitely don't want fast guys batting behind slow guys under any circumstances. That would just negate their speed.

[Bellhorn04]

The Pedroia hate on the game threads has been unbelievable. All because he's been hitting into an unusual number of DP's this year.

[a700hitter]

The Pedroia hate on the game threads has been unbelievable. All because he's been hitting into an unusual number of DP's this year.

Due in part to the guys in front of him getting on base so often. I really can't find fault with Pedey's game on either side of the ball this season.

[Jasonbay44]

Only 2B In the whole league I'm taking over Pedroia are: Cano, Kinsler, Altuve and based on this year, Daniel Murphy.

[a700hitter]

Only 2B In the whole league I'm taking over Pedroia are: Cano, Kinsler, Altuve and based on this year, Daniel Murphy.

I would only put Altuve ahead of him. Murphy is barely adequate defensively. Cano has slipped defensively. And except for power, Pedey is a better player than Kinsler.

[Jasonbay44]

I would only put Altuve ahead of him. Murphy is barely adequate defensively. Cano has slipped defensively. And except for power, Pedey is a better player than Kinsler.

 

I think Cano and Altuve are without a doubt better, I think those guys are top 2 2B in the league, but other guys are debatable. Point is, there isn't much better than what we have and sometimes we take that for granted.