Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[User Name]

What I mean by "sample normalization" in this instance is that, put another way, the researcher (moonslav in this case) is adding a specific biased condition when doing his analysis that alters the nature of the result. That's even more significant when considering the boundary issue mentioned above, so even while accounting for that fact, there's some noise that would have to be eliminated through the use of linear weights, and just lol no, I'm not going into that. Point is, eliminating the worst five games doesn't actually (in my opinion) prove anything conclusive.

[illinoisredsox]

Rather than eliminating data points, just cap the number of runs that you use at some number (11, 13, 15, whatever). Above a certain level, it really doesn't matter.

 

You could probably adapt something like what the USGA does with equitable stroke control (ESC). ESC basically means that for the purposes of determining handicaps, your score on a given hole is capped at a certain level. You still write down what you made on the scorecard, but when you report it afterwards, it gets adjusted. Right now, my max score n most courses is an 8. So If I shoot 90 but on one hole I had a 9, the handicap formula uses ESC and records it as an 89.

 

Obviously in baseball, you wouldn't weight the adjustment, but you could still cap it.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Rather than eliminating data points, just cap the number of runs that you use at some number (11, 13, 15, whatever). Above a certain level, it really doesn't matter.

 

You could probably adapt something like what the USGA does with equitable stroke control (ESC). ESC basically means that for the purposes of determining handicaps, your score on a given hole is capped at a certain level. You still write down what you made on the scorecard, but when you report it afterwards, it gets adjusted. Right now, my max score n most courses is an 8. So If I shoot 90 but on one hole I had a 9, the handicap formula uses ESC and records it as an 89.

 

Obviously in baseball, you wouldn't weight the adjustment, but you could still cap it.

 

Or we could just go with reality and stop trying to eliminate this or that.

[a700hitter]

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[TD][h=1]Joe Kelly leaves start early with groin injury[/h][/TD]

[TD=align: right]06.08.16 at 1:40 am ET[/TD]

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By Rob Bradford

http://fullcount.weei.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Kelly_Joe-Red-Sox-head-16.jpgJoe Kelly

 

The competition for that June 18 start might have thinned out a bit.

Pitching in his first game for Triple-A Pawtucket since his demotion from the Red Sox, Joe Kelly was forced from his start against Toledo with two outs in the fifth inning after experiencing what is believed to be a right groin injury.

Kelly’s last batter was JaCoby Jones, who lofted a sacrifice fly to right field. The righty would gingerly run to back up home plate on the play, leading to Pawtucket trainer Jon Jochim escorting Kelly off the field.

 

 

“He felt some discomfort in his right groin,” PawSox manager Kevin Boles told the Providence Journal. “We’re going to reevaluate him and see how he comes in tomorrow.” According to the ProJo, Kelly showed no signs of the injury prior to the Jones at-bat, with the paper reporting 15 swings and misses (10 on offspeed pitches). Kelly finished his outing giving up three runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out five while allowing six hits and a walk in his 79-pitch start. Coming into the start, Kelly was thought to be competing with Clay Buchholz, Roenis Elias and Henry Owens for the opportunity to pitch June 18, which is believed to be the next time the Red Sox will use a fifth starter.

 

I am starting to think that Kelly is the love child of Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. He is frail --- probably a bleeder too.

[devildavid]

Our pitching may be mediocre but our run differential average leads the entire American League. As long as the offense keeps raking, we've got a good shot.

[a700hitter]

And when the offense slumps, which offenses inevitably do, the team will swoon if th pitching doesn't improve.

[Bellhorn04]

I am starting to think that Kelly is the love child of Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. He is frail --- probably a bleeder too.

 

I think Kelly may actually be in a league of his own.

[a700hitter]

I just realized that Michael Fulmer of the Tigers was acquired from the Mets for 2 months of Cespedes. Fulmer is looking like an ace in the making and he is playing for the league minimum and is under team control. For a full year of Cespedes, we got Porcello for one year and then threw an $82 million extension at him. Yet, people want me to believe that BC got the best return that he could for Cespedes, Lester and Lackey. Puhlease, BC was a fool.

[Bellhorn04]

Yet, people want me to believe that BC got the best return that he could for Cespedes, Lester and Lackey.

 

People here?

[devildavid]

And when the offense slumps, which offenses inevitably do, the team will swoon if th pitching doesn't improve.

 

I think this offense is so deep that it will avoid any major slumps. And the pitching may improve. Price hasn't really gotten into a groove yet. And I hope Porcello is just slumping a bit. But there are major concerns in Buchholz and Kelly and I'm wondering if Rodriquez is going to be a plus or minus.

[a700hitter]

I think this offense is so deep that it will avoid any major slumps. And the pitching may improve. Price hasn't really gotten into a groove yet. And I hope Porcello is just slumping a bit. But there are major concerns in Buchholz and Kelly and I'm wondering if Rodriquez is going to be a plus or minus.

Even the 1977-78 teams hit slumps with 3 Hall of Famers in the lineup as well as Lynn, Evans, Boomer.

[illinoisredsox]

I think Kelly may actually be in a league of his own.

 

Nah, at least when Kelly gets hurt it's baseball related. Pulling a groin running happens. An arm injury while actually throwing a pitch happens. And he comes back in "normal" time frames.

 

Buchholz missing half a season because he slept wrong holding his daughter not so much.

 

(Now to be fair, I have always believed that Buchholz hurt his shoulder a couple of weeks before the sleeping incident in a game against Toronto when he awkwardly fielded a chopper near the first base line and fell on his right shoulder. The sleeping thing may have further aggravated it, but I think the fall was the actual cause. His velocity has not been the same since.)

[illinoisredsox]

Even the 1977-78 teams hit slumps with 3 Hall of Famers in the lineup as well as Lynn, Evans, Boomer.

 

Those slumps always seemed to coincide with visits to Kansas City. The Sox just could not seem to hit there in those days.

[devildavid]

Even the 1977-78 teams hit slumps with 3 Hall of Famers in the lineup as well as Lynn, Evans, Boomer.

 

I would be happy with the same record as those two teams had. It would probably put them in the playoffs if not first in the division. Those teams back what I am saying, despite any slumps.

[Bellhorn04]

Nah, at least when Kelly gets hurt it's baseball related. Pulling a groin running happens. An arm injury while actually throwing a pitch happens. And he comes back in "normal" time frames.

 

Buchholz missing half a season because he slept wrong holding his daughter not so much.

 

(Now to be fair, I have always believed that Buchholz hurt his shoulder a couple of weeks before the sleeping incident in a game against Toronto when he awkwardly fielded a chopper near the first base line and fell on his right shoulder. The sleeping thing may have further aggravated it, but I think the fall was the actual cause. His velocity has not been the same since.)

 

OTOH the most innings Kelly has pitched in an MLB season is 134.1. I think that may be his ceiling. Buchholz has at least reached 170 innings 3 times...

[moonslav59]

So what is considered an outlier?

 

Consider the following. Last year's staff allowed 753 runs, which equates to an average of 4.65 runs per game; the standard deviation for this data was 3.43. So a shutout would be within about 1.33 standard deviations. The 5 high games were 18, 14, 14, 13 and 13. or between 2.5 and nearly 4 standard deviations.

 

Going back to the 2013 Sox. That team allowed 4.04 runs per game with a standard deviation of 2.84. A shutout was about 1.4 standard deviations. The 5 high games were 15, 13, 12, 12 and 11, again between about 2.5 and 4 standard deviations.

 

I'm no statistician (the above is about as far as I care to go in that realm), but it seems to me that the true outliers in this case are are the upper end, where the distance from the average is 3 deviations or more. Under 1.5 just doesn't seem that far out to me.

 

(Note, the above uses runs per game because that data was easy to enter into a spreadsheet; I was not going to examine the box scores of each game to determine earned runs, and I doubt it would have changed the overall picture anyway)

 

I now leave it to you and moonslav to discuss.

 

To me, the most important aspect of a pitching staff is to maximize the amount of games they keep the team within the normal range of having a chance to win. Being in a hitter's park for more than half of a season may raise the runs allowed total when compared to other teams. having a great offense may also allow that range to be raised a bit as well.

 

I like to look at the mean runs allowed as one major indicator of staff efficiency. Right now it's at 4 runs allowed. Playing more games in hitter's parks than pitcher's parks and having an offense that has a runs scored mean of 4 a pretty good number.

 

Also, we'd need 4 straight games of allowing 3 or fewer runs to get our runs allowed mean to 3, but it would take 11 straight games allowing 5 or more runs to get out runs allowed mean to 5. That means we are closer to a mean of 3 than 5 by a significant amount.

 

Our staff gets blown out quite a bit. That's unfortunate, but in some ways, it's better to allow many runs in a few games rather than spread them out more evenly. That way you may lose one game 14-5, but win other games 5-4, 7-5, 6-3, 6-5 more often.

 

Looking at our worst 5-10 games in runs allowed does tell us something. That was my point. It is a useful stat, and I think it does point to one reason we have been successful this year. When we lose, we lose big, but in the other games, our staff has been able to keep us in games long enough for our offense to win more games than it may appear we should win based on our team ERA.

 

Looking at the numbers below: only 2 AL teams have let up more run totals in their worst 5 games, and one was only by one run.

Only one team has let up a higher run total in their worst 10 games.

 

Comparatively speaking, this has allowed our mean runs allowed to be lower as compared to our average runs allowed per game vs other AL teams.

 

This was why I used this methodology. It wasn't meant to be some mathematician's dream of perfect symmetry.

 

Our average runs allowed per game is 4.65, but our mean runs allowed is closer to 3 than 5. That's telling to me.

 

I'm not going to go team by team to see how those numbers compare to other teams, but my guess is, based on the blow out numbers listed below, our mean and position of our mean being closer to 3 than 5 vs an Avg runs allowed of being closer to 5 than 4 is better than most teams.

 

Our staff has kept us in enough games to allow us to win much more than we lose.

 

27 out of 58 games (close to half) our staff (and defense) has allowed 3 or less runs.

34 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 4 or less runs (team record: 27-7).

41 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 5 or less runs (team record: 30-11).

Conversely, in 17 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 7 or more runs, of which we've gone 4-13.

 

Runs allowed in worst 5 games/ Runs allowed in worst 6-10 games

 

56/42 Red Sox (98)

 

56/ 36 Astros (92)

65/ 45 A's (110)

57/ 36 Blue Jays (93)

42/ 34 CLE (76)

54/ 36 Mariners (90)

48/ 38 Orioles (86)

53/ 43 Rangers (96)

46/ 33 Rays (79)

48/ 35 Royals (83)

52/ 41 Tigers (93)

56/ 42 Twins (98)

48/ 35 White Sox (83)

47/ 37 Yankees (84)

 

[greenwell]

To me, the most important aspect of a pitching staff is to maximize the amount of games they keep the team within the normal range of having a chance to win. Being in a hitter's park for more than half of a season may raise the runs allowed total when compared to other teams. having a great offense may also allow that range to be raised a bit as well.

 

I like to look at the mean runs allowed as one major indicator of staff efficiency. Right now it's at 4 runs allowed. Playing more games in hitter's parks than pitcher's parks and having an offense that has a runs scored mean of 4 a pretty good number.

 

Also, we'd need 4 straight games of allowing 3 or fewer runs to get our runs allowed mean to 3, but it would take 11 straight games allowing 5 or more runs to get out runs allowed mean to 5. That means we are closer to a mean of 3 than 5 by a significant amount.

 

Our staff gets blown out quite a bit. That's unfortunate, but in some ways, it's better to allow many runs in a few games rather than spread them out more evenly. That way you may lose one game 14-5, but win other games 5-4, 7-5, 6-3, 6-5 more often.

 

Looking at our worst 5-10 games in runs allowed does tell us something. That was my point. It is a useful stat, and I think it does point to one reason we have been successful this year. When we lose, we lose big, but in the other games, our staff has been able to keep us in games long enough for our offense to win more games than it may appear we should win based on our team ERA.

 

Looking at the numbers below: only 2 AL teams have let up more run totals in their worst 5 games, and one was only by one run.

Only one team has let up a higher run total in their worst 10 games.

 

Comparatively speaking, this has allowed our mean runs allowed to be lower as compared to our average runs allowed per game vs other AL teams.

 

This was why I used this methodology. It wasn't meant to be some mathematician's dream of perfect symmetry.

 

Our average runs allowed per game is 4.65, but our mean runs allowed is closer to 3 than 5. That's telling to me.

 

I'm not going to go team by team to see how those numbers compare to other teams, but my guess is, based on the blow out numbers listed below, our mean and position of our mean being closer to 3 than 5 vs an Avg runs allowed of being closer to 5 than 4 is better than most teams.

 

Our staff has kept us in enough games to allow us to win much more than we lose.

 

27 out of 58 games (close to half) our staff (and defense) has allowed 3 or less runs.

34 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 4 or less runs (team record: 27-7).

41 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 5 or less runs (team record: 30-11).

Conversely, in 17 out of 58 games our staff has allowed 7 or more runs, of which we've gone 4-13.

 

Runs allowed in worst 5 games/ Runs allowed in worst 6-10 games

 

56/42 Red Sox (98)

 

56/ 36 Astros (92)

65/ 45 A's (110)

57/ 36 Blue Jays (93)

42/ 34 CLE (76)

54/ 36 Mariners (90)

48/ 38 Orioles (86)

53/ 43 Rangers (96)

46/ 33 Rays (79)

48/ 35 Royals (83)

52/ 41 Tigers (93)

56/ 42 Twins (98)

48/ 35 White Sox (83)

47/ 37 Yankees (84)

 

 

Hey Moon,

Thanks, I was curious about the records when allowing a certain number of runs.

 

You're referring to median, not mean, right. Mean and average are the same thing.

[User Name]

I just don't see it. Seems like picking nits trying to make the staff look better to me.

[moonslav59]

Hey Moon,

Thanks, I was curious about the records when allowing a certain number of runs.

 

You're referring to median, not mean, right. Mean and average are the same thing.

 

Yes, I meant "median" not mean.

 

It reminds me when softy the clown kept saying "median average".

[moonslav59]

I just don't see it. Seems like picking nits trying to make the staff look better to me.

 

It wasn't meant to try to "make our staff look better", but I did make this point, because I do not think it's as bad as some think it is.

 

I have maintained for a long time, that our biggest weakness is our rotation, and I still feel this way.

 

Another view...

 

Who stared in our worst 7 games, in terms of runs allowed:

 

13 Kelly (2.1/ 7 ER -Buchholz got the loss)

12 Porcello (6.o/5 ER- Kimbrel got the loss)

12 Price (3.2/ 8 ER- Cuevas got the loss)

10 Porcello (6.2/4 ER - Ross got the loss)

9 O'Sullivan (4.1/ 5 ER- Hembree got the win)

9 Buchholz (5.0/ 5 ER)

9 Price (5.0/ 5 ER- Kimbrel got the loss)

 

What's interesting to me is that 5 of the 7 worst games were not from our 5th starter. The strangest fact might be that in 6 of the 7 worst games by our staff, the starter did not get the decision, so even in those 6 of those games, our offense kept us in the game.

[moonslav59]

AL Runs allowed: Mean vs Median

 

Runs/Gms Mean Median

CWS 229/58 3.95 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

CLE 230/57 4.04 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

TOR 243/60 4.05 3 (closer to 4 than 2)

SEA 242/58 4.17 3 (closer to 4 than 2)

TEX 243/58 4.18 3 (closer to 4 than 2)

KCR 244/58 4.21 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

BAL 242/57 4.25 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

TBR 243/57 4.26 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

NYY 248/58 4.27 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

HOU 271/60 4.52 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

DET 265/58 4.57 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

LAA 266/58 4.59 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

BOS 270/58 4.65 4 (closer to 3 than 5)

OAK 288/58 4.97 4 (closer to 5 than 3)

MIN 300/57 5.26 4 (closer to 6 than 3)

[Kimmi]

Our pitching may be mediocre but our run differential average leads the entire American League. As long as the offense keeps raking, we've got a good shot.

 

As someone astutely said, with the offense that we have, our pitching doesn't need to be great, just decent. For the first 2 months of the season, the staff carried a 4.13 ERA. That's not great, but that will keep you in most games.

 

In June, roughly one turn through the rotation, not including last night's game, their ERA is 7.98. Outside of that one bad turn, the pitching has mostly been "decent", which is good enough for our offense.

 

I agree with most that Dombrowski needs to add some pitching, but as you said, we have the 2nd best run differential in baseball behind the Cubs. It's not as dire as some people make it out to be.

[a700hitter]

Your offense has to be a big powerhouse to get to the playoffs with an ERA over 4.

[iortiz]

The problem is that our starting pitching staff has been a bad one. It is 4.72 ERA as a unit. 21 out of 30 in all baseball. You won't go anywhere with those numbers in POs.

 

On the other hand Kelly and Buchh won't hurt this team anymore.

[Spudboy]

The problem is that our starting pitching staff has been a bad one. It is 4.72 ERA as a unit. 21 out of 30 in all baseball. You won't go anywhere with those numbers in POs.

 

On the other hand Kelly and Buchh won't hurt this team anymore.

 

Not sure about that. I bet Buch will start games again this season for the Sox. And Kelly is still a starting pitcher as far as the Sox are concerned.

[bowman]

The pitching coach doesn't impress me at all. Pede picked up on some flaws with Price which seemed to help. We seem to have some real live arms that can't get over the hump. Maybe there is a lot going on behind the scenes, but I'm sick of seeing the manager and the pitching coach sitting together and gazing out at the pitchers. Duh, what do you think. I'll go talk to him... Anyways, I have faith Dombrowski has something up his sleeve to shore up the staff so that we can have a shot at the prize.

[cp176]

The pitching coach doesn't impress me at all. Pede picked up on some flaws with Price which seemed to help. We seem to have some real live arms that can't get over the hump. Maybe there is a lot going on behind the scenes, but I'm sick of seeing the manager and the pitching coach sitting together and gazing out at the pitchers. Duh, what do you think. I'll go talk to him... Anyways, I have faith Dombrowski has something up his sleeve to shore up the staff so that we can have a shot at the prize.

 

You just have to remember that last year this year's hitting coach of the year Chili Davis just sucked in the eyes of some. Brian Butterfield's(arguably their best on field guy) ass was on the line as well. When the players actually play most of their coaches look a pant load better. if this pitching staff all of a sudden starts to look better so will the pitching coach. I also think that DD is going to make a move - a good one.

[Slasher9]

I am looking forward to clay getting another shot as a starter later this month. He will be ace like.

[moonslav59]

Your offense has to be a big powerhouse to get to the playoffs with an ERA over 4.

 

Well the Royals won last year without a great offense.

Their SP'er ERA was 4.34.

Their overall ERA was 3.73.

[a700hitter]

Well the Royals won last year without a great offense.

Their SP'er ERA was 4.34.

Their overall ERA was 3.73.

Right, overall ERA was 3.73. That is not close to 4.