Referendum on John Farrell

[Bellhorn04]

And I'm not suggesting that David Price is a 'choker'. I think that's a gross oversimplification. But I think he may have some psychological issues going on. He's well aware of his lousy postseason record. It's in his face all the time. Is it not possible that it affects him mentally in a negative way? I really believe that most sports psychologists would say that it's very possible.

[sk7326]

Let's forget about hitters for the moment. What about pitchers?

 

Can we really ascribe the vast difference between Schilling's and Price's postseason game logs to luck?

 

It feels like a convenient way to dismiss something that is a rather gaping difference.

 

I think as a matter of careers - Schilling has at most intervals been a better pitcher than Price. Price's postseason struggles are what they are - I would not call it luck. Going by game logs - there is some evidence he has not been so good third time through the order against that level of competition. I think the Cleveland start had a good deal of poor fortune (his stuff looked better than Porcello's).

 

I always go to my main issue with "clutch" - while Schilling has been a better big game pitcher than Price, I'd also submit he is just a better pitcher period.

[Slasher9]

David Price is 100% a chocker. i will say it. he chocked in his first home game at Fenway. and he choked against the yankees. and he choked in the postseason for the billionth time. luckily we only signed him to a 7 year $219MM contract so we only have to deal with this chocker for another 6 seasons....wait...what!?!?

[cp176]

1. Not to be nit picky, but ERA is quantification - if you want to go there

2. The mental stuff does matter - but given that this is such a competitive industry, those who wilt under pressure probably wilted in Altoona or Greenville or Chattanooga.

3. Remember the Yankees won the World Series three times in four years. They also blew series in 2003 and 2004 with home field advantage. The greatest closer who ever lived blew a save to win the World Series and another to win the AL Pennant. Does that mean the principals suddenly had issues with composure? Or was it the other team having a hot stretch. Or was it just baseball? Remember Luiz Gonzalez game winning single in the 2001 World Series was basically an outcome Rivera would have been happy with vis a vis his job. (threw a good cutter Gonzalez could not square up with good contact) The blooper fell where there were no fielders - it happens.

4. It IS a tournament between good teams - and that is the source of the pressure. These teams are all good. (and are all probably even in the mental stuff - it's why they are good)

 

Anyone who played baseball knows that you can do the right thing and have nothing to show for it - it happens all the time. Remember, this is a sport where the best hitters still fail at their job over half the time. There is just so much "sh!t happens" noise in any single game that it is hard to get too deep into blame. That doesn't mean that it is all luck - but luck is a pretty significant driver.

 

As the stage gets bigger, the talent level increases, but it doesn't change the fact that the pressure is still there. Most of us regardless of how talented we are, will be affected by pressure. Not everybody wilts when faced with it - not everybody rises above it.

[S5Dewey]

David Price is 100% a chocker. i will say it. he chocked in his first home game at Fenway. and he choked against the yankees. and he choked in the postseason for the billionth time. luckily we only signed him to a 7 year $219MM contract so we only have to deal with this chocker for another 6 seasons....wait...what!?!?

 

I have to say... there is evidence.....

 

However... and this is what I've said a couple of times before, Price is a guy who can get you there. I expect 15-20 wins from him in each of the next six (gulp!) years. He just needs to be accompanied by a true Ace. Someone you can give the ball to and be confident of a win in the playoffs. Kinda like Buch. Buch is a guy who's going to give us a good 1/2 year. We just need someone to give us the other 1/2.

[cp176]

Wait.... I thought I was saying there is more to a playoff win other than chance, and that there is a gray middle ground, and that the coach has something to do with it, other than the flower game of she loves me, she loves me not. And yea, there are some major and minor stuff that you can lump into a "who knows" category, but the coach either calls it right or doesn't. That is the coaches read on how to handle that.

 

And..... f you about the strawman thing....... seriously, I'm not even blaming him which I've written before you ass. I think Farrell did a great job this year getting us to the playoffs. I realize playoffs are a crap shoot. But if I had to say we ready for the playoffs we absolutely weren't for some reason or another. Want to take this in another directions, how do you now know Farrell wasn't chasing some reporter tail during the last two weeks after night after night doing body tequila shots......... YOU DON"T KNOW, I know as much as you do. All we have is the results. Tell me again he did a great job managing the team during the playoffs.....

 

i don't necessarily agree with your feelings about the job Farrell did this fall but I do agree with many of your opinions about the predictability of athletic performances join general.

[mvp 78]

David Price is 100% a chocker. i will say it. he chocked in his first home game at Fenway. and he choked against the yankees. and he choked in the postseason for the billionth time. luckily we only signed him to a 7 year $219MM contract so we only have to deal with this chocker for another 6 seasons....wait...what!?!?

 

You should keep your fingers that he gets just good enough to opt out then.

[cp176]

I'm sorry, but Mr. Cameron's opinion - and that's all it is, his opinion - sounds like it's coming from someone who's never played organized sports. Anyone who's does it knows that some people can play under the stress of having a championship on the line and some can't. However, we can't quantify who can and who can't until the game(s) are over, and even then we can attribute failure to "randomness" if we so choose to. I don't choose to because I know better. Stress and the mental/emotional aspects of the game play a HUGE part in a player's performance. There's a big difference between, for example, making a 6' putt for par during the middle of the summer and making that same putt when the Club Championship is on the line. Some people can harness their emotions and make that put for the Club Championship... and some can't.

 

It's the same with baseball, and most especially the pitchers. There's an incredible amount of stress on a pitcher when he knows that every batter he pitches to is only one 'mistake pitch' away from hitting a HR. Some people 'step up' in that situation (Hello, Curt Schilling) and some don't. And it can't be quantified. To try to find a way to say that David Price = Curt Schilling is flying in the face of the facts. I'm not one to beat up on guys on my own team, but let's get real. Price has an ERA of 5.50 in 15 post season games while Schilling has an ERA of 2.20 in 19 post season games, and while these sample sizes are smaller at the same time they were games played under the same pressure. Some can handle the pressure, some can't.

 

 

The part of Mr Cameron's quote that has the highest garbage quotient is the last sentence, "It’s a three week tournament on a level playing field between teams that are fairly evenly matched up, and one where a single bounce here or there can change the entire outcome." It's not as simple as that. The two teams he speaks of may be fairly evenly matched up in terms of raw talent or record, but if so the team with the stronger emotional make-up will usually win. Bill James (again) has said that most one-run games are decided by luck. A bounce here or a ball hit six inches one way or the other can decide a one run game. The implication there is that games that are decided by more than one run are decided by other things, things like talent and emotional makeup.

 

Anyone who's played sports knows it.

 

If you have ever played at any type of elevated level in any competitive sport, you know that all of things that we might call human factors - the things that can't be measured exist and are very very important. It is what has always made a life in athletics fun for me. I believe that good solid preparation can certainly make some athletes and teams seem more lucky than others but when the screws start to tighten interesting things that just defy logic quite often happen.

[S5Dewey]

1. Not to be nit picky, but ERA is quantification - if you want to go there.

 

I have no objection to quantification. Baseball is made up of quantifications. I like things like OPS, ERA, BA, etc., etc. etc. They're just not the be-all, end-all. External factors can change what a player does. If a player is in the midst of a messy divorce or has sickness in the family it can affect their play, just as pressure from any other source (like the playoffs!) can.

 

My specific issue regarding quantification is with WAR. WAR reminds me of a 6'10" pitcher with a big motion. There's a lot going on in that motion, so much in fact that when things go South on him it's hard to figure out where the problem is. It's the same with WAR. It's a huge multi-page calculation involving not only objective data but subjective data, and when it goes South it's hard to figure out where the problem is.

 

The difference between my 6'10" pitcher and WAR is that it's easy to see when the pitcher isn't providing the results he should be. However, many people are so deeply invested in WAR they simply assume that since it takes so many variables into account, whatever values WAR is returning must be correct, and they preach that.

 

Going back to my original comparison now between WAR and my 6'10" pitcher, there are too many possibilities for things to go South in both of them for my comfort level.

[Slasher9]

As the stage gets bigger, the talent level increases, but it doesn't change the fact that the pressure is still there. Most of us regardless of how talented we are, will be affected by pressure. Not everybody wilts when faced with it - not everybody rises above it.

 

well, two things we know. Price wilts.

[Slasher9]

You should keep your fingers that he gets just good enough to opt out then.

 

that would be great. sign me up. i'll take an actual "Ace" for 2 seasons at $31MM per and say adios just as it's set to turn 34 releasing me of $124MM in future salary. but we both know that aint gonna happen.

[sk7326]

I have no objection to quantification. Baseball is made up of quantifications. I like things like OPS, ERA, BA, etc., etc. etc. They're just not the be-all, end-all. External factors can change what a player does. If a player is in the midst of a messy divorce or has sickness in the family it can affect their play, just as pressure from any other source (like the playoffs!) can.

 

My specific issue regarding quantification is with WAR. WAR reminds me of a 6'10" pitcher with a big motion. There's a lot going on in that motion, so much in fact that when things go South on him it's hard to figure out where the problem is. It's the same with WAR. It's a huge multi-page calculation involving not only objective data but subjective data, and when it goes South it's hard to figure out where the problem is.

 

The difference between my 6'10" pitcher and WAR is that it's easy to see when the pitcher isn't providing the results he should be. However, many people are so deeply invested in WAR they simply assume that since it takes so many variables into account, whatever values WAR is returning must be correct, and they preach that.

 

Going back to my original comparison now between WAR and my 6'10" pitcher, there are too many possibilities for things to go South in both of them for my comfort level.

 

I think that is conflating two separate things - the human stuff is input ... humans play these games inside of our TV sets. I would never dispute the importance therein - but the output is measurable stuff, and the output is what you get paid for. Now Price's postseason output has stunk - now whether that is actually a matter of pressure or just an issue with good teams are distinct diagnoses. (the latter one, while alarming, is much more credible) After all, Price went 10-2 down the stretch as a deadline gunner for the Jays in wins they had to have - and Price was at his best this season for us down the stretch when the games mattered most for securing the division.

 

WAR is a sum of measurable baseball output - none of the stuff in there is subjective (aside from the subjectivity of its inclusion or exclusion). Now there are different ways to separate a pitcher's contribution to a team accomplishment (run prevention) which is what differentiates the measurements. (fWAR is better for predicting the future, bWAR is better for awards)

 

There is no doubt pressure can affect people - at the same time, those factors matter less when dealing with a profession you have been doing since you were a child - especially if you do it well. And either way, it should come out in the wash. Could Price be pressing a bit in the playoffs - yes. But he was pretty good in a lot of big games which were essential to get to the tournament. It's not binary.

[Kimmi]

So, humans all deal with stress the exact same way? And the playoffs are just a game of pinball.

 

I'd like to hear what some of the players that stepped up to the mound and pitched in playoff ball have to say about that.

 

That is not at all what Cameron is saying.

[cp176]

well, two things we know. Price wilts.

 

This year? He really wasn't all that effective over the course of the season. He pitched in the playoffs pretty much the way he pitched all season. He wilted all season and I don't give a s*** how many games he won. Not ace like this year.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, there does seem to be a disconnect here somewhere. On the one hand players can play better if they have 'trust and confidence instilled in them' and they are in a 'positive clubhouse atmosphere'. But on the other hand there's no evidence that some players perform better under pressure than others.

 

It sounds like the only psychological factors being acknowledged are the good ones.

 

Well, likewise, players who have a manager whom they feel doesn't have their back are not going to perform as well. I have said this about the influence that I think Bobby Valentine had on the team. It works both positively and negatively.

 

However, it is an ongoing thing that shapes itself over the course of a season. It's not something that can be readily turned on or turned off, or kicked up a notch or toned down a notch on a whim. In other words, a manager cannot get a player to raise his game to otherworldly for the postseason, just like a player cannot raise his own game to otherworldly for the playoffs. The idea that a manager 'did not have his team ready for the playoffs' is just way off base.

 

I agree that some handle pressure better than others. As I've said before, players who can't handle the pressure, ie the chokers, either don't make it to the bigs or don't stay there very long.

[Kimmi]

But, to get right down to it, she doesn't seem to acknowledge the possibility that David Price's postseason struggles may have a psychological component.

 

Oh no, I acknowledge the possibility that Price's struggles may have a psychological component. I don't think he's a choker though.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that some handle pressure better than others. As I've said before, players who can't handle the pressure, ie the chokers, either don't make it to the bigs or don't stay there very long.

 

How can any of us really know what playoff pressure is like? I remember back in the dramatic Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS when we came back against the Angels, a Red Sox relief pitcher named Steve Crawford who was brought in with the game on the line later said, in effect, that he was afraid he was going to lose control of his bodily functions right on the mound.

 

Also, how do we explain Jon Lester's inability to throw the ball to first base? And he's not the first player to develop the 'yips' in some form, either.

 

As I said about Price, I don't think it's a case of being a choker. But there are a lot of psychological things going on inside people, including guys who have been in the big leagues a long time.

[Kimmi]

There's also no evidence that players play better if they have 'trust and confidence instilled in them' and they are in a 'positive clubhouse atmosphere'.

 

Hence the disconnect.

 

This is correct. I had a lengthy discussion with a poster whose name I can't recall about Pedroia's 'grit' making him a better player. There is no evidence to support that idea either. At the same time, there is no evidence suggesting that it isn't true. I said at the time that if someone provided evidence against grit, I would have to rethink my opinion. If someone provided evidence against trust and confidence, I would have to rethink my opinion.

 

There is rather strong evidence against the ideas of 'clutch' and 'choke' (at least at the big league level), which is why I don't believe they exist.

[Kimmi]

How can any of us really know what playoff pressure is like? I remember back in the dramatic Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS when we came back against the Angels, a Red Sox relief pitcher named Steve Crawford who was brought in with the game on the line later said, in effect, that he was afraid he was going to lose control of his bodily functions right on the mound.

 

Also, how do we explain Jon Lester's inability to throw the ball to first base? And he's not the first player to develop the 'yips' in some form, either.

 

As I said about Price, I don't think it's a case of being a choker. But there are a lot of psychological things going on inside people, including guys who have been in the big leagues a long time.

 

We don't know what playoff pressure is like. IMO, the pressure of performing in front of scouts, etc., when trying to make it to the show would be pretty intense. If a player can handle that pressure, then I would think he can handle playoff pressure.

 

I do not disagree that there are a lot of psychological and emotional things going on inside people. I don't think I have said otherwise.

[Bellhorn04]

We don't know what playoff pressure is like. IMO, the pressure of performing in front of scouts, etc., when trying to make it to the show would be pretty intense. If a player can handle that pressure, then I would think he can handle playoff pressure.

 

I would have to think they are very different types of pressure.

[Maxbialystock]

I seem to recall somewhere on this thread a huge outcry over the absolute importance of home field advantage, that Farrell should have made a better effort to get it against Cleveland, and that not having it is the real reason why we lost 3 straight in the ALDS to the Guardians.

 

So far in the WS, out of 6 games, the home team has won once. If the Cubs win it all tonight, it will be 1 game out of 7 won by the home team.

 

My take on the Sox in the ALDS is that Porcello and Price simply weren't up to the task. They were awful. End of story.

[Bellhorn04]

I seem to recall somewhere on this thread a huge outcry over the absolute importance of home field advantage, that Farrell should have made a better effort to get it against Cleveland, and that not having it is the real reason why we lost 3 straight in the ALDS to the Guardians.

 

So far in the WS, out of 6 games, the home team has won once. If the Cubs win it all tonight, it will be 1 game out of 7 won by the home team.

 

My take on the Sox in the ALDS is that Porcello and Price simply weren't up to the task. They were awful. End of story.

 

Just for accuracy, the home team has won 2 out 6, Games 1 and 5.

[Kimmi]

I seem to recall somewhere on this thread a huge outcry over the absolute importance of home field advantage, that Farrell should have made a better effort to get it against Cleveland, and that not having it is the real reason why we lost 3 straight in the ALDS to the Guardians.

 

So far in the WS, out of 6 games, the home team has won once. If the Cubs win it all tonight, it will be 1 game out of 7 won by the home team.

 

My take on the Sox in the ALDS is that Porcello and Price simply weren't up to the task. They were awful. End of story.

 

The World Series has gone to a Game 7 thirty-seven times. The home team has won 18 of those games and the road team has won 19 of them.

[Maxbialystock]

Now it's official. The home team lost 6 of this year's 7 WS games. More to the point, Cleveland swept the Sox in the ALDS for the simple reason they were better.

[moonslav59]

Now it's official. The home team lost 6 of this year's 7 WS games. More to the point, Cleveland swept the Sox in the ALDS for the simple reason they were better.

 

You are officially wrong.

 

Games 1 and 5 were won by the home team.

 

The home team lost 5 of 7.

[Bellhorn04]

You are officially wrong.

 

Games 1 and 5 were won by the home team.

 

The home team lost 5 of 7.

 

I tried to correct him, but he Mister Magoo'd it.

[Slasher9]

2 out of 7 is still a pretty persuasive argument. i was def one of the HFA is important people and maybe i was wrong.....

[a700hitter]

Now it's official. The home team lost 6 of this year's 7 WS games. More to the point, Cleveland swept the Sox in the ALDS for the simple reason they were better.

And that is definitive. Of course the Guardians were better than the Red Sox, and that is why they had home field advantage. That is why home field advantage is important. It is an indicator of which team is the better team.

[jad]

Ah. Obvious now why the Sox got rid of that loser Francona.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Ah. Obvious now why the Sox got rid of that loser Francona.

 

Tito was a great manager for the Sox, but he was burnt out in the end, for several reasons. Managing 8 years in Boston is the equivalent of managing "80" years in a place like San Diego. That year off was probably just what he needed.