A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

If Porcello and Kluber pitch the same, the bullpens will decide it.

 

I don't believe the HFA has any effect. You do. We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

It's not a big difference, but the Sox, perhaps more than other teams over the years, are often built to succeed in their own park. That has changed since the Henry era, but we still win more at home than away over the years.

 

2003-2016 (under Henry):

 

.......Runs scored/ Runs allowed = Differentail

 

Home: 6319 / 5307 = +1,012

 

Away: 5445 / 5092 = +353

 

It's really not even close. I realize that the playoff history, especially in deciding games prior to 2003 has not always been kind to Fenway, but that sample size is tiny.

 

2013:

WS: H 2-1/A 2-1

ALCS: H 2-1/ A 2-1

ALDS: H 2-0/A 1-1

 

2009:

ALDS: H 0-1/A 0-2

 

2008:

ALCS: H 1-2/A 2-2

ALDS: H 1-1/A 2-0

 

2007:

WS: H 2-0/A 2-0

ALCS: H 3-1/A 1-2

ALDS: H 2-0/ A 1-0

 

2005:

ALDS: H 0-1/A 0-2

 

2004:

WS: H 2-0/A 2-0

ALCS: H 2-1/A 2-2

ALDS: H 1-0/A 2-0

 

2003:

ALDS: H 1-2/A 2-2

 

Since Henry totals:

 

ALDS: Home 7-5 / Away 8-7

 

ALCS: Home 8-4 / Away 7-7

 

WS: Home 6-1 / Away 6-1

 

TOTAL: Home 21-10 / Away 21-15

 

Maybe, it makes a little difference.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

But when it comes down to one decisive game, a lot of that goes out the window, because that one game will feature each team's best available pitchers going against each other.

[sk7326]

Every team is better at home for the same reason you sleep better in your house than on a business trip. But the history of home field is very very dicey. The question is not whether playing at home helps. It does. But does that extra home game help a lot - and the answer has been historically (in baseball) "not really"

 

Since 1946 - there were 28 World Series Game 7s (which is useful since home field in the World Series is not related to the quality of the contestants). Home teams are 14-14 in those games. A strong, meaningful home field advantage should have revealed itself there.

 

The Red Sox led the AL in wRC+ at 113. They led the AL in road wRC+ as well. During Henry's time what is instructive is not the 23-10 home record, but the 22-17 road one. The Red Sox have simply been good.

[moonslav59]

But when it comes down to one decisive game, a lot of that goes out the window, because that one game will feature each team's best available pitchers going against each other.

 

It's not just about the decisive game though. Starting a series at home can set the tempo and make a difference. Winning at home can prevent a decisive game from every being needed.

[mvp 78]

Every team is better at home for the same reason you sleep better in your house than on a business trip.

 

My kids don't typically wake me up in the middle of the night when I'm on a business trip.

[a700hitter]

My kids don't typically wake me up in the middle of the night when I'm on a business trip.

LOL!! And your daughter can't sleep on your arm on the road landing you on the DL.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not just about the decisive game though. Starting a series at home can set the tempo and make a difference. Winning at home can prevent a decisive game from every being needed.

 

It works both ways. When you start at home there can also be more pressure to 'hold serve'.

[moonslav59]

It works both ways. When you start at home there can also be more pressure to 'hold serve'.

 

We're 21-10 at home in the playoffs since Henry took over.

We are 21-15 away in the same period of time.

 

That's a bigger and more meaningful sample size than decisive games including games from back in the 60's and 40's.

[sk7326]

We're 21-10 at home in the playoffs since Henry took over.

We are 21-15 away in the same period of time.

 

That's a bigger and more meaningful sample size than decisive games including games from back in the 60's and 40's.

 

Your numbers are not discussing home field advantage - just home games ... that teams play better at home, which is almost universally true. The question is how much of that comes from the "home" part, and does it matter. The trouble with using playoff home field advantage to glean this is that ... in the 21st century, excepting the World Series, teams with the extra home game are usually "better" than the other team and would be favored in a neutral setting.

 

The definition of the home field advantage is that extra home game ... the decisive game. I only used World Series results to try to control for the fact that in recent times, the home team in those decisive games is usually the better team to begin with.

[moonslav59]

Your numbers are not discussing home field advantage - just home games ... that teams play better at home, which is almost universally true. The question is how much of that comes from the "home" part, and does it matter. The trouble with using playoff home field advantage to glean this is that ... in the 21st century, excepting the World Series, teams with the extra home game are usually "better" than the other team and would be favored in a neutral setting.

 

The definition of the home field advantage is that extra home game ... the decisive game. I only used World Series results to try to control for the fact that in recent times, the home team in those decisive games is usually the better team to begin with.

 

We did better at home than away with the same team and the same opps in the sample size chosen.

 

It doesn't matter why, but the fact is, we win more at home than on the road- both regular season and the playoffs. Just because the HFA did not help in the 40's, 60's and 70's does not mean we don't gain an edge in the next decisive game had it been at home.

[sk7326]

We did better at home than away with the same team and the same opps in the sample size chosen.

 

It doesn't matter why, but the fact is, we win more at home than on the road- both regular season and the playoffs. Just because the HFA did not help in the 40's, 60's and 70's does not mean we don't gain an edge in the next decisive game had it been at home.

 

I think there is enough empirical data that for one game - given the caliber of opposition, being at home is not decisive.

[Slasher9]

I think there is enough empirical data that for one game - given the caliber of opposition, being at home is not decisive.

 

tell that to Baltimore who's manager in his infinite road team wisdom kept the best reliever in baseball on the pine while his team got walked off the 2016 postseason.....

[a700hitter]

I think there is enough empirical data that for one game - given the caliber of opposition, being at home is not decisive.

It is beneficial, not decisive.

[Slasher9]

LOL...this place cracks me up. there is LITERALLY a REAL LIFE example less than 24 HOURS old that shows how important home field is in a win or die game.

seriously.

[a700hitter]

LOL...this place cracks me up. there is LITERALLY a REAL LIFE example less than 24 HOURS old that shows how important home field is in a win or die game.

seriously.

We didn't get the HFA so people want to convince themselves that it doesn't matter. It does matter.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL...this place cracks me up. there is LITERALLY a REAL LIFE example less than 24 HOURS old that shows how important home field is in a win or die game.

seriously.

 

Last night's game didn't really show that IMO...it was a perfect example of 'it's anybody's game' IMO. And if Buck used Britton like he shoulda...

[mvp 78]

What would the change have been for Showalter if the O's were at home? He still would have waited for the O's to score before bringing in Britton. They still would have lost.

 

The only difference is that there would have been a better chance of s*** not being thrown on the field.

[Eddy Ballgame]

What would the change have been for Showalter if the O's were at home? He still would have waited for the O's to score before bringing in Britton. They still would have lost.

 

The only difference is that there would have been a better chance of s*** not being thrown on the field.

 

Buck doesn't bring in Britton to face the top of the order at the start of the inning? Ok...Let's see where it goes...

 

Buck doesn't bring in Britton when leadoff hitter reaches? WTF is this guy thinking?!

 

Buck doesn't bring in Britton when first 2 guys reach and Encarcion & Bautista are due up next? Fire him before he gets on the bus to the airport.

[illinoisredsox]

What would the change have been for Showalter if the O's were at home? He still would have waited for the O's to score before bringing in Britton. They still would have lost.

 

The only difference is that there would have been a better chance of s*** not being thrown on the field.

 

What changes is that in a tie game at home and the game gets to the 9th, there's no save to be had. You bring in your best available reliever for the 9th; once he is done,, you go with your next best, etc.

 

As I wrote above, in the postseason and especially in an elimination game, the "rules" should not apply. If your on the road and you don't score, in the top of the 9thor later, you've got to get 6 outs to win the game, the home team doesn't have to get any. Yo have to prolong it as long as you can.

[Slasher9]

What would the change have been for Showalter if the O's were at home? He still would have waited for the O's to score before bringing in Britton. They still would have lost.

 

The only difference is that there would have been a better chance of s*** not being thrown on the field.

 

there is nothing correct in this post.

if he waits until the O's score...the game is over bruh....

[mvp 78]

there is nothing correct in this post.

if he waits until the O's score...the game is over bruh....

 

No s***. That was my point.

 

I just don't see how Showalter would have changed his pitching if he was the home team. It wasn't a "save situation" in the 9th, so he wouldn't have been brought out then. He clearly didn't want Britton in the 10th or 11th for whatever reason.

[moonslav59]

I think there is enough empirical data that for one game - given the caliber of opposition, being at home is not decisive.

 

https://thebaseballsite.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/historical-home-field-advantage-in-the-postseason/comment-page-1/

 

Here's a read. It talks about when home field advantage wasn't given to the winningest team, yet the HFA led to a very high winning %.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

https://thebaseballsite.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/historical-home-field-advantage-in-the-postseason/comment-page-1/

 

Here's a read. It talks about when home field advantage wasn't given to the winningest team, yet the HFA led to a very high winning %.

 

 

I think part of home field advantage has to do with the particular "home field." Schilling mentioned the orher day on WEEI how some opposing players were clearly overwhelmed coming into Fenway during a playoff game. Would they feel the same way in Tampa? Probably not.

 

He also mentioned how there were players on the '04 Sox who literally didn't want the ball hit to them because they were horrified of becoming the next "Buckner." Thought that was pretty funny and not the first time I've heard or read that.

 

The post season is a different animal and some guys handle it better than others. That's why you'll see managers sometimes disregard "stats." Some guys love the spolight. Some don't.

 

Jonny Gomes is a perfect example. Farrelll started him in playoff games when it completely went against the numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

No s***. That was my point.

 

I just don't see how Showalter would have changed his pitching if he was the home team. It wasn't a "save situation" in the 9th, so he wouldn't have been brought out then. He clearly didn't want Britton in the 10th or 11th for whatever reason.

 

100% correct.

[Kimmi]

...and when things are pretty even, like Porcello vs Kluber in game 5, you look for any edge you can get... like HFA.

 

Sure, if you have the choice between HFA or no HFA, you'd take HFA. However, if the decision is between playing all out the last week to get HFA versus resting players and setting up your rotation at the expense of HFA, you go with the latter. HFA means so little that having rested players and setting up your rotation is more important.

[moonslav59]

Sure, if you have the choice between HFA or no HFA, you'd take HFA. However, if the decision is between playing all out the last week to get HFA versus resting players and setting up your rotation at the expense of HFA, you go with the latter. HFA means so little that having rested players and setting up your rotation is more important.

 

Agreed, but what does that have to do with sitting half your line-up when a 3 day rest is coming up?

[sk7326]

Agreed, but what does that have to do with sitting half your line-up when a 3 day rest is coming up?

 

Been a long season - the Papi business was worth them enjoying on its own. For all his tactical issues (which are not that bad) - Farrell has had a good read on his clubhouse pretty much all season.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but what does that have to do with sitting half your line-up when a 3 day rest is coming up?

 

There's no one to blame for this.

[moonslav59]

There's no one to blame for this.

 

Nope. I'm not complaining. We're in. We're rested. We have the best offense. We have the best 2nd half starters. Our pen improved. Our D is good.

[User Name]

HFA sure f***ing helped the Mets tonight.