A Realistic View at 2016

[sk7326]

They may sign another bullpen guy but I'm sure that they are hoping for a healthy Smith return.

 

Our pen sucked just about all year, until very recently, and much of the turn around was due to Ziegler, the return of Uehara & Tazawa, and the rise of Kelly and guys like Scott.

 

To think we can lose Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa and replace the three with one guy coming back from serious injury, Carson Smith plus maybe one other guy, i think is taking a huge risk. Now, it may be easier to fix a pen issue mid season than a big offensive issue or a SP'er need, but we can't neglect the pen this winter. Here's how I see it, assuming Buch is back next year:

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 C Smith

RP3 Buch or Pom or Wright

RP4 Ross

RP5 Kelly

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Abad/Hembree/Scott/Elias

 

There's lots of hope and promise here, but there is a strong chance some of these guys fail or get hurt.

 

 

 

well it's relief pitching - just stack bodies and bodies (preferably bodies with wipeout pitches) and attrition it out.

[moonslav59]

Our bullpen needs one addition.

 

I disagree.

 

Minus Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa

 

Add Smith and only one RP'er still leaves us at least one short.

 

Remember, just because our pen looks fine now, doesn't mean it will next year. It looked awful for much of this year.

 

Injuries are common. If a starter gets hurt, Buch will not be in the pen. If Smith takes a while to get over his injury, then what?

 

I have little faith in Barnes, Hembree and Abad. Ross could decline. We need at least 2 very good RP'ers in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

We have enough money.

 

If we want stay under or very near the luxury tax limit, do you think $30-35M is enough to sign EE aand 2 solid RP'ers?

 

Maybe $20-23M a year on EE and $5-6M each on 2 RP'ers?

 

[Nick]

Our bullpen needs one addition.

 

I disagree.

 

Minus Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa

 

Add Smith and only one RP'er still leaves us at least one short.

 

Remember, just because our pen looks fine now, doesn't mean it will next year. It looked awful for much of this year.

 

Injuries are common. If a starter gets hurt, Buch will not be in the pen. If Smith takes a while to get over his injury, then what?

 

I have little faith in Barnes, Hembree and Abad. Ross could decline. We need at least 2 very good RP'ers in my opinion.

 

Kelly was not in the equation for most of the year. To me, he qualifies as an 'addition'. It's really not difficult to acquire 'number' of relievers. Teams have to do it all the time, partially due to uncertainty when it comes to ALL relievers.

[moonslav59]

Kelly was not in the equation for most of the year. To me, he qualifies as an 'addition'. It's really not difficult to acquire 'number' of relievers. Teams have to do it all the time, partially due to uncertainty when it comes to ALL relievers.

 

He wasn't in the mix, because he sucked. The addition of someone who sucked for most of the year is not a significant or reliable "addition".

 

When I look at all the RP'ers we have going into next year, I see a lot of promise, but that is just what much of it is. We have very few RP'ers with any long-standing record of stability, reliability and strong performance level.

 

Kimbrel (still a top 5 closer in my book, but looking a little more shaky and fragile than when he was at his best)

C Smith (injury and recovery period makes him a question mark, at least to start the year)

Buchholz (the poster boy for inconsistency and unreliability)

Ross (has been pretty consistent for us over 2 years, but not at a great level)

Kelly (has actually been more inconsistent than Buch, but both share nasty stuff)

Barnes (roller coaster season may smooth out, but still questionable)

Abad (may be a decent LOOGIE)

Hembree (showed flashes of promise, but still a question lingers)

R Scott (could surprise us)

Owens/Johsnon/Elias (maybe one shines)

 

I realize almost all non closer RP'ers have histories of inconsistency and unreliability. In many ways, most RP'ers are crap shoot. We could sign Jansen and Chapman and still end up with pen issues, but in no way I am going to feel safe with carson Smith and Kelly being viewed as capable replacements for two out of Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa.

 

[mvp 78]

In this case, both you and your daughter are wrong.

 

So when EE signs elsewhere, are you going to disappear off the board again?

[User Name]

So when EE signs elsewhere, are you going to disappear off the board again?

 

Didn't I beat you last time we made a bet? I suggest calming your tits mister.

[mvp 78]

Didn't I beat you last time we made a bet? I suggest calming your tits mister.

 

My tits will never be calmed.

[moonslav59]

My tits will never be calmed.

 

So what? They are giggling?

[mvp 78]

So what? They are giggling?

 

Better giggling than jiggling, I guess?

[User Name]

I like where this is going.

[Nick]

He wasn't in the mix, because he sucked. The addition of someone who sucked for most of the year is not a significant or reliable "addition".

 

When I look at all the RP'ers we have going into next year, I see a lot of promise, but that is just what much of it is. We have very few RP'ers with any long-standing record of stability, reliability and strong performance level.

 

Kimbrel (still a top 5 closer in my book, but looking a little more shaky and fragile than when he was at his best)

C Smith (injury and recovery period makes him a question mark, at least to start the year)

Buchholz (the poster boy for inconsistency and unreliability)

Ross (has been pretty consistent for us over 2 years, but not at a great level)

Kelly (has actually been more inconsistent than Buch, but both share nasty stuff)

Barnes (roller coaster season may smooth out, but still questionable)

Abad (may be a decent LOOGIE)

Hembree (showed flashes of promise, but still a question lingers)

R Scott (could surprise us)

Owens/Johsnon/Elias (maybe one shines)

 

I realize almost all non closer RP'ers have histories of inconsistency and unreliability. In many ways, most RP'ers are crap shoot. We could sign Jansen and Chapman and still end up with pen issues, but in no way I am going to feel safe with carson Smith and Kelly being viewed as capable replacements for two out of Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa.

 

 

What would make you happy? Re-sign Tazawa who has been ineffective for last two years? Ziegler basically replaced Kimbrel when he went down. He only pitches against right handed hitters.

 

Name names.Who is out there that you want? You already told me no closers would come to Boston.

[moonslav59]

What would make you happy? Re-sign Tazawa who has been ineffective for last two years? Ziegler basically replaced Kimbrel when he went down. He only pitches against right handed hitters.

 

Name names.Who is out there that you want? You already told me no closers would come to Boston.

 

Ziegler is not likely coming back.

 

I'm thankful for what Uehara and Tazawa did for us, but I'm thinking it's time to move on.

 

I agree that no closer is coming here, unless through a trade. I doubt that happens. I read on MLBTR that if the CWS trade Quintana and/or Sale, then they should trade Robertson as well. I'd kick the tires there. Maybe we could offer the world of long-away prospects for Quintana, Robertson and Todd Frazier (one year 3B stop-gap).

 

There isn't much on the FA list, in terms of non-closers. I guess Melancon counts as a closer, but I'd kick the tires there. I think trading for some 2 pen arms is maybe the best way to build up our pen, and taking RP'ers with higher salaries might lessen what we need to give up.

 

 

 

[Dalas21000]

Is this team just settling now that they won the division?Why are they not playing for home field??? Why did Farrell take Hembree out in tonight's(Thursday) game after 2 outs to bring in a guy that cant get the ball over the plate? Too many pitching changes Edited September 30, 2016 by Dalas21000

[Nick]

Ziegler is not likely coming back.

 

I'm thankful for what Uehara and Tazawa did for us, but I'm thinking it's time to move on.

 

I agree that no closer is coming here, unless through a trade. I doubt that happens. I read on MLBTR that if the CWS trade Quintana and/or Sale, then they should trade Robertson as well. I'd kick the tires there. Maybe we could offer the world of long-away prospects for Quintana, Robertson and Todd Frazier (one year 3B stop-gap).

 

There isn't much on the FA list, in terms of non-closers. I guess Melancon counts as a closer, but I'd kick the tires there. I think trading for some 2 pen arms is maybe the best way to build up our pen, and taking RP'ers with higher salaries might lessen what we need to give up.

 

 

 

 

Ziegler is going back to Arizona. His family is more important than few more dollars, which is refreshing.

 

I agree with you on Uehara and Tazawa, but I have sneaky suspicion that JF will want them both back. He's just that kinda of a guy and I don't like that quality about him. He lives in comfort zone.

 

Hanley takes care of either 1B or DH role but that leaves open 2 spots to address. Now that Sandy has returned to 'norm', we can't afford to have 3 line up spots take regressive steps, DH, 3B and C. (well it can't get much worse at 3B)

 

I would expect Xander to have a better year next year. He's been mediocre for better part of three months, and that's being generous.

 

Full year of Beni in LF will be improvement over Holt and Bryce experiment.

 

I'm concerned about Pedey being able to go another year without an injury.

 

I think DD will take care of bullpen via trades.

 

I go back and forth but I'm okay with getting Sales as long as it doesn't involve Moncada and Beni. Obviously current major leaguers are off limits and as you've pointed out, White Sox would want someone that will be major league ready in couple of more years. There's no point of acquiring say Bradley and have to deal with Boras in couple of years.

 

I wonder if more teams will wait to sign free agents after the new CBA is finalized.

Edited September 30, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

Is this team just settling now that they won the division?Why are they not playing for home field??? Why did Farrell take Hembree out in tonight's(Thursday) game after 2 outs to bring in a guy that cant get the ball over the plate? Too many pitching changes

 

Nothing like sending out Owens and have Pedey, Betts, Sandy and Hanley sit out a game at the same time telling the media we're trying to garner home field advantage. Sure, John, whatever you say. Chicago Cubs don't appear tired.

[User Name]

The Sox don't want HFA. The Sox want to play a Salazar-Carrasco (and maybe Kluber) less Guardians team in the ALDS.

[moonslav59]

Nothing like sending out Owens and have Pedey, Betts, Sandy and Hanley sit out a game at the same time telling the media we're trying to garner home field advantage. Sure, John, whatever you say. Chicago Cubs don't appear tired.

 

The Cubs essentially clinched in early August.

 

They only have 2 players with 152 games played (Rizzo & Bryant), one at 148 (Russell), one at 144 (Zobrist) and two at 139 (Heyward & Baez). The rest are all under 122.

 

The Sox have 5 guys over 148 games played:

155 Betts, 154 Bogey, 153 JBJ, 151 Pedey, 148 Ortiz

We also have two at 144: HanRam & Shaw.

That's 7 over 144 to the Cubs 4.

No wonder they are less tired looking.

 

We also score more runs and let up more runs, so our innings are "longer".

 

 

Rizzo is 21st in innings played.

Russell is 53rd.

Heyward is 108th

Fowler is 110th

Zobrist is 118th

Bryant is 151st. (I think fangraphs messed up here)

 

Conversely, the Sox have this....

 

Innings played in the field:

8th Betts

9th Bogey

10th JBJ

45th Pedey

79th HanRam

149th Shaw

 

Leaders in PAs:

2 Betts

3 Bogey

11 Pedey

61 JBJ

69 Ortiz

76 HanRam

 

Cubs:

9 Bryant

29 Rizzo

64 Zobrist

91 Russell

96 Heyward

 

 

 

 

 

Heyward is 26th in OF innings.

[Nick]

The Cubs essentially clinched in early August.

 

They only have 2 players with 152 games played (Rizzo & Bryant), one at 148 (Russell), one at 144 (Zobrist) and two at 139 (Heyward & Baez). The rest are all under 122.

 

The Sox have 5 guys over 148 games played:

155 Betts, 154 Bogey, 153 JBJ, 151 Pedey, 148 Ortiz

We also have two at 144: HanRam & Shaw.

That's 7 over 144 to the Cubs 4.

No wonder they are less tired looking.

 

We also score more runs and let up more runs, so our innings are "longer".

 

 

Rizzo is 21st in innings played.

Russell is 53rd.

Heyward is 108th

Fowler is 110th

Zobrist is 118th

Bryant is 151st. (I think fangraphs messed up here)

 

Conversely, the Sox have this....

 

Innings played in the field:

8th Betts

9th Bogey

10th JBJ

45th Pedey

79th HanRam

149th Shaw

 

Leaders in PAs:

2 Betts

3 Bogey

11 Pedey

61 JBJ

69 Ortiz

76 HanRam

 

Cubs:

9 Bryant

29 Rizzo

64 Zobrist

91 Russell

96 Heyward

 

 

 

 

 

Heyward is 26th in OF innings.

 

We get 3 days off, no?

[Maxbialystock]

I love moonslav's numbers, but would not only agree with Nick about the 3 days off. I would also note that Farrell had no choice to play his best guys more. Besides, Pedey is 11th in plate appearances and seems full of energy (or at least desire).

[illinoisredsox]

Well, per the Sox announcers last night, you will see most of the regulars tonight (I could see Bogaerts and Bradley getting the night off since they played last night). With the forecast for tomorrow (50s and rain), there is no way I would send any regulars out there if they even manage to play. And if they don't play, that means a doubleheader on Sunday, and you aren't sending the regulars out there to play 18 innings.

 

I also think you will see Buchholz in a relief role on Sunday to get some action in before his playoff start and avoid 10 days between games.

 

EDIT - Now that I look at the weekend forecast for Boston, they will be lucky to not to have to finish the season on Monday.

Edited September 30, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[moonslav59]

Even though we have clinched, it was nice to see a big comeback win. Going into the playoffs on a higher note is usually a good thing.

 

Here are the updated OPS numbers (50+ PAs):

 

1.027 Ortiz (3rd best career OPS & only time leading the league)

.900 Betts

.861 Ramirez

.853 Beni

.847 Young

.846 Leon

.844 JBJ

.834 Pedey

.802 Bogey

.744 Hernandez

.733 Rutledge

.728 Shaw

.720 Swihart

.717 Holt

.690 Brentz

.591 Hill

.584 Vazquez

.500 Holaday

.468 Hanigan

[oldtimer]

Even though we have clinched, it was nice to see a big comeback win. Going into the playoffs on a higher note is usually a good thing.

 

Here are the updated OPS numbers (50+ PAs):

 

1.027 Ortiz (3rd best career OPS & only time leading the league)

.900 Betts

.861 Ramirez

.853 Beni

.847 Young

.846 Leon

.844 JBJ

.834 Pedey

.802 Bogey

.744 Hernandez

.733 Rutledge

.728 Shaw

.720 Swihart

.717 Holt

.690 Brentz

.591 Hill

.584 Vazquez

.500 Holaday

.468 Hanigan

 

We have lost 4 of the last 5 which is certainly not going into the playoffs on a high note. Thank Kimbrel for one of those and possibly 2 if you think we could have won the game last night with Ortiz out of the lineup after 2 ABs. Farrell gets one for indifference and Price gets one for a weak performance.

 

We have JBJ, Leon and Hanley in slumps so pull out of it guys and contribute.

[Nick]

We play Cleveland in best of five. In reality, what has transpired becomes meaningless. We've all seen players step up big time and fail likewise in the past.

 

The canvas is clean. It just remains to be seen which players and which teams will paint the masterpiece beginning Thursday.

[Emp9]

The Sox don't want HFA. The Sox want to play a Salazar-Carrasco (and maybe Kluber) less Guardians team in the ALDS.

 

Agreed. If I had a choice I'd pick Cle.

[oldtimer]

We play Cleveland in best of five. In reality, what has transpired becomes meaningless. We've all seen players step up big time and fail likewise in the past.

 

The canvas is clean. It just remains to be seen which players and which teams will paint the masterpiece beginning Thursday.

 

Not totally meaningless as our loss of 5 of the last 6 has cost us home field advantage. We saw playoff ball today with good pitching and a 2 to 1 result. My view is that when in games like today's we have to think about small ball with the stolen base and bunting taking a part. We also need to execute when attempting these things. Even so, we still can lose, as we did today.

[moonslav59]

I feel very confident about the playoffs. Everyone is rested. We have the best three starters in the AL, the best offense, and very good defense.

 

Now, we just have to translate all that into wins.

[illinoisredsox]

Not totally meaningless as our loss of 5 of the last 6 has cost us home field advantage. We saw playoff ball today with good pitching and a 2 to 1 result. My view is that when in games like today's we have to think about small ball with the stolen base and bunting taking a part. We also need to execute when attempting these things. Even so, we still can lose, as we did today.

 

Bunting is a not a part of the Sox offense and the fastest way to sure defeat is to start trying to do things that are not normal for you. Outside Leon and maybe Holt, there's nobody on the team who can bunt worth a darn anyway.

[moonslav59]

Bunting is for girly men.

[southpaw777]

I love moonslav's numbers, but would not only agree with Nick about the 3 days off. I would also note that Farrell had no choice to play his best guys more. Besides, Pedey is 11th in plate appearances and seems full of energy (or at least desire).

 

And why would you note that he HAD to play them and couldnt rest Bogey and the others a day or two more? He could have easily not played Bogey that many days in a row. Farrell has had a tendency to over use his players, especially pitchers.

Edited October 3, 2016 by southpaw777