A Realistic View at 2016

[Bellhorn04]

Question for the board

 

For Aaron Hill, what is his salary for the purpose of luxury tax calculation? He signed a 3 yr $35M contract or avg value of say $12M. I'm assuming Sox are responsible for the full amount, no? Moon?

 

It's pro-rated for the period of time since we obtained him.

[moonslav59]

This has been a good year. Somehow Ortiz was able to coax contributions from entire group in his final season. You hear about a team playing for their manager. I believe our young players are playing so well partly to honor Ortiz in his final season. It's a small payback for his support, encouragement and maybe tough love when they needed it. They all have great respect for Ortiz. Not sure how it will end but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox win it all with Ortiz right in middle of it.

 

Nice post. I also wonder if the youth of this team has, in some ways, "coaxed" Papi into having one of hie best seasons. The "Fountain of Youth" has washed over Papi's aching feet.

[moonslav59]

Question for the board

 

For Aaron Hill, what is his salary for the purpose of luxury tax calculation? He signed a 3 yr $35M contract or avg value of say $12M. I'm assuming Sox are responsible for the full amount, no? Moon?

 

I'm not sure who paid the $1M assignment bonus he had in his contract for being traded, but we are only on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his average yearly salary of $11.67M a year. Since we got him just after the half way point of the year, we'll probably be counted as about $5.8M not counting the $1M bonus, which might count as $0.17 (half a million divided by 3 years).

 

Didn't work out too well.

[Spudboy]

I'm not sure who paid the $1M assignment bonus he had in his contract for being traded, but we are only on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his average yearly salary of $11.67M a year. Since we got him just after the half way point of the year, we'll probably be counted as about $5.8M not counting the $1M bonus, which might count as $0.17 (half a million divided by 3 years).

 

Didn't work out too well.

 

3rd base is an expensive position for the Sox.

 

Low bang for the buck if you ask me.

[Bellhorn04]

3rd base is an expensive position for the Sox.

 

Low bang for the buck if you ask me.

 

It certainly has been in 2016. Without Shaw (in spite of his tailspin) we'd really have been screwed this year.

[Nick]

I'm not sure who paid the $1M assignment bonus he had in his contract for being traded, but we are only on the hook for the pro-rated portion of his average yearly salary of $11.67M a year. Since we got him just after the half way point of the year, we'll probably be counted as about $5.8M not counting the $1M bonus, which might count as $0.17 (half a million divided by 3 years).

 

Didn't work out too well.

 

That makes sense. Therefore, because competitive balance tax (luxury tax) is based on year end figures, Aaron Hill's prior trade salary is not picked up by anyone, correct?

 

I was trying to duplicate your luxury tax analysis. I count about 10 or so arbitration eligible players on our 40 man roster (I maybe off by few), do you have an estimate on total incremental cost for next year on these players (Betts, Bradley, Kelly, Pomeranz, Ross, etc)?

[Nick]

It's pro-rated for the period of time since we obtained him.

 

Thank you

[Spudboy]

It certainly has been in 2016. Without Shaw (in spite of his tailspin) we'd really have been screwed this year.

 

Absolutely.

 

I don't pretend to fully understand what makes a guy a competent hitter against a rhp and a not so good hitter against lhp. But I would have been tempted to keep Shaw in the lineup more often.

 

Maybe if he faces lefties more he adapts and become more proficient? Certainly sitting on the bench will not improve his ability.

 

Again, I certainly don't know.

 

Shaw is hardly all world at any aspect of the game. But I suspect that he will eventually become better all around and his development would be better served with him being on the field.

[Nick]

Absolutely.

 

I don't pretend to fully understand what makes a guy a competent hitter against a rhp and a not so good hitter against lhp. But I would have been tempted to keep Shaw in the lineup more often.

 

Maybe if he faces lefties more he adapts and become more proficient? Certainly sitting on the bench will not improve his ability.

 

Again, I certainly don't know.

 

Shaw is hardly all world at any aspect of the game. But I suspect that he will eventually become better all around and his development would be better served with him being on the field.

 

I've been critical of Shaw but he can't do much worse vs lefthanders than Hill. If we only have kept Beltre.

[cp176]

This has been a good year. Somehow Ortiz was able to coax contributions from entire group in his final season. You hear about a team playing for their manager. I believe our young players are playing so well partly to honor Ortiz in his final season. It's a small payback for his support, encouragement and maybe tough love when they needed it. They all have great respect for Ortiz. Not sure how it will end but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox win it all with Ortiz right in middle of it.

 

Couldn't agree more with you and as has already been stated I also think that it works both ways. What I love about this big man the most is his commitment and I believe genuine warmth for the Red Sox fan base. In a day and age where negativity seems to rule, you have this gentle big man who plays a game for a living and gives so much back at the same time. My guess is that he stays with the club in some capacity in the future and continues to give to his adopted community.

[Kimmi]

This has been a good year. Somehow Ortiz was able to coax contributions from entire group in his final season. You hear about a team playing for their manager. I believe our young players are playing so well partly to honor Ortiz in his final season. It's a small payback for his support, encouragement and maybe tough love when they needed it. They all have great respect for Ortiz. Not sure how it will end but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox win it all with Ortiz right in middle of it.

 

Absolutely. When a team has something or someone to rally around like honoring Ortiz (or like the unfortunate marathon bombing in 2013) it creates a strong synergy. You also cannot underestimate the "big brother" effect of Papi on the younger players, or even on the vets like Hanley.

[moonslav59]

Between Pablo, Hill and others who have tried their hand at 3B this year, we're paying over $25M for ...

 

.250 15 67

 

OBP .311

SLG .394

OPS .705

[moonslav59]

That makes sense. Therefore, because competitive balance tax (luxury tax) is based on year end figures, Aaron Hill's prior trade salary is not picked up by anyone, correct?

 

It's my understanding that the total contractual cost is divided by the years of the deal (including bonuses and buyouts). This is the annual luxury tax cost. If a player is traded, the amount is pro-rated so one team is "charged" the percent of the luxury number based on the percent of the contract remaining. The old team is "charged" the rest.

 

I was trying to duplicate your luxury tax analysis. I count about 10 or so arbitration eligible players on our 40 man roster (I maybe off by few), do you have an estimate on total incremental cost for next year on these players (Betts, Bradley, Kelly, Pomeranz, Ross, etc)?

 

I've done a complete projection of our luxury tax budget for next year with my estimates of the arb raises. I'll try to find it an re-post it here soon.

 

I think I had us with about $30M to spend and come even to the projected limit.

[moonslav59]

I see 9 arb players (see below in bold)

 

I could be wrong, but show me where I am...

 

Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young.

TOTAL: $123.35M

(Note: Castillo's$10.25M Castillo and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remains off the 40 man roster.)

 

Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan

TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both)

 

Let's assume we say no and then count them as off-season options:

Updated TOTAL: $124.65M

 

Arbs (9 players):

Bogaerts:$650K > ~$5.5M (1st of 3)

Bradley: $546K > ~$3.2M (1 of 4)

Pomeranz $1.35M> ~$3.5M (2 of 3)

J Kelly: $2.6M>$2.7M (2 of 3 arbs)

Ross: $1.25M> $1.7M (2 of 3)

Holt: $606K > $1.1M (1 of 3)

Leon: $minor > $1.1K (1 of 3)

Rutledge: $minor> $850K (1 of 3)

Workman: $540K > $600K (1 of 3)

TOTAL ARBS: ~$20.35M

TOTAL of 16 players: ~$145M (without Buch and Hanigan)

 

The 24 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Holaday, Moncada

TOTAL: ~$13M

 

Grand Total: $158M (No Buch/Hanigan)

 

Now, add the $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is...

 

TOTAL $170M

 

That leaves us with about $19M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M.

 

That would mean we'll have between $30M and $40M, but if we keep Buch and/or Hanigan it will be less.

 

That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (DH, 3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need 2-3 quality RP'ers and maybe a SP'er. If we don't try to spend big to replace Papi, we will probably sign an aging vet to 1-2 year deal who plays corner IF and/or LF (Beltran?).

[southpaw777]

...and if Moncada gets a lot of playing time, we could see 20+ there too.

Eventually, yes. I think hes got more work before he does that in MLB, But once he catches up to the speed of the MLB game, then yes.

So adding those two guys, say by 2018, we could easily have 40-50 dingers between the two.

My guess is at least one of Betts Bogey and Bradley are not going to be signed and will be traded before their arb years are up. With two of them signed with Boras, One being called MVP of the league, and all three MLB All stars, its gonna cost them north of 60m per to keep all three. Im sure they could afford it. My question is, what are they going to be seeking in years and AAV? We had to let Jacoby walk because of that. So there will be some hard decisions to make over the next three years with these three...

Weve got a solid run of three years with this team. Hopefully we can capitalize on it a time or two and raise more trophies. That will make it easier when we have to let player(s) walk.

[Nick]

Eventually, yes. I think hes got more work before he does that in MLB, But once he catches up to the speed of the MLB game, then yes.

So adding those two guys, say by 2018, we could easily have 40-50 dingers between the two.

My guess is at least one of Betts Bogey and Bradley are not going to be signed and will be traded before their arb years are up. With two of them signed with Boras, One being called MVP of the league, and all three MLB All stars, its gonna cost them north of 60m per to keep all three. Im sure they could afford it. My question is, what are they going to be seeking in years and AAV? We had to let Jacoby walk because of that. So there will be some hard decisions to make over the next three years with these three...

Weve got a solid run of three years with this team. Hopefully we can capitalize on it a time or two and raise more trophies. That will make it easier when we have to let player(s) walk.

 

Good point about retaining all three, Betts, Bradley Jr and Bogaerts maybe difficult. That would lead me to believe someone like Benintendi is untouchable. He's under team control for what, another six years? (at least five) Why would you even think about trading him? You need low cost control guys to go with high end players which we will certainly have in couple of years. Luckily, Pablo and Hanley contracts will be coming off the books as free agent signings will be pending on some of our younger players.

 

Swihart could be another option in left field, moving Beni over to center field. Moncada could also play outfield, depending on Devers' progress but it would also be nice to simply plug in Moncada at 3B for next ten years.

 

Sox can be in thick of things for next three years. Porcello (3), Pomeranz (2), E Rod (4+), Price (2 or 6), Wright (4+) can be counted on to provide quality starts. We'll need some pitching depth but it's good place to start.

Edited September 23, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Eventually, yes. I think hes got more work before he does that in MLB, But once he catches up to the speed of the MLB game, then yes.

So adding those two guys, say by 2018, we could easily have 40-50 dingers between the two.

My guess is at least one of Betts Bogey and Bradley are not going to be signed and will be traded before their arb years are up. With two of them signed with Boras, One being called MVP of the league, and all three MLB All stars, its gonna cost them north of 60m per to keep all three. Im sure they could afford it. My question is, what are they going to be seeking in years and AAV? We had to let Jacoby walk because of that. So there will be some hard decisions to make over the next three years with these three...

Weve got a solid run of three years with this team. Hopefully we can capitalize on it a time or two and raise more trophies. That will make it easier when we have to let player(s) walk.

 

I wouldn't compare our big 3 B's to Ellsbury. Jacoby had the 5th to 7th best OPS on the team before he left, and he only really had one big year.

 

I do think we may end up losing one of the three, as you point out, but I'm hoping some new fresh young players will be ready to take his place at a much lower cost (Beni? Moncada? Basabe? Travis? Dalbec? Ockimey?)

[moonslav59]

Swihart could be another option in left field, moving Beni over to center field. Moncada could also play outfield, depending on Devers' progress but it would also be nice to simply plug in Moncada at 3B for next ten years.

 

Great point. This shows how much of our future is still in flux. We have several options at every position that may end up with a gaping hole, if ssomeone bolts or has a major in jury.

[moonslav59]

Much of our near term roster seems to be pretty much locked up contractually.

 

We lose Ortiz, A Hill, Uehara, Tazawa and Ziegler. We'll probably let Hanigan go, but may keep Buch and his final option looks like it will be given.

 

These (25 man) roster slots will likely be taken by...

 

Ortiz> Beni for a full season

AHill > Hernandez (Pablo?/Swi?) and then maybe Moncada

Uehara> FA acquisition

Ziegler> FA acquisition

Tazawa> C Smith

Hanigan> Full season of Leon and more from Vaz/Swi

 

After 2017...

Young> Swihart

Buch> Kelly/Owens/Johnson/Kopech

Abad> Hembree/others

The '17-'18 winter could be the time we decide to look at extensions.

 

After 2018...

Price has opt out>?

HanRam has a vesting option based on 2 year PA totals

Kimbrel>

Pomeranz>

Kelly>

Ross>

 

After 2019...

Bogey>

Porcello>

Leon>

Holt>

Rutledge>

Workman>

Pablo option

 

After 2020...

Betts>

JBJ>

Smith>

Wright>

Vaz>

Pablo>

 

After 2021...

Pedroia>

 

After 2022...

Price>

 

[moonslav59]

Here is the AL playoff schedule:

 

Wild Card Round

AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS)

 

ALDS

Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS)

Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS)

 

ALCS

Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS)

Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS)

Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS)

Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS)

 

World Series

Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX)

Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX)

Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX)

Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX)

Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX)

Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX)

Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX)

 

*Game played if necessary

 

Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this:

 

Season ends OCT 2

 

ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12

 

2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game

 

 

ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22

 

One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

 

WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2

 

Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen.

 

Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers.

 

Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster?

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Buchholz?

SP4 ERod

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Ross

RP5 Tazawa

RP6 Pomeranz

RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?)

 

Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be...

 

C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?)

1B (1) HanRam

2B (2) Pedroia, Holt

3B (2) Shaw, Hill

SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez

LF (2) Benintendi, Young

CF (1) Bradley

RF (1) Betts

DH (1) Ortiz

[Nick]

Here is the AL playoff schedule:

 

Wild Card Round

AL Wild Card Game: Oct. 4 (TBS)

 

ALDS

Game 1: Oct. 6 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 7 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 9 (TBS)

Game 4*: Oct. 10 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 12 (TBS)

 

ALCS

Game 1: Oct. 14 (TBS)

Game 2: Oct. 15 (TBS)

Game 3: Oct. 17 (TBS)

Game 4: Oct. 18 (TBS)

Game 5*: Oct. 19 (TBS)

Game 6*: Oct. 21 (TBS)

Game 7*: Oct. 22 (TBS)

 

World Series

Game 1: Oct. 25 (FOX)

Game 2: Oct. 26 (FOX)

Game 3: Oct. 28 (FOX)

Game 4: Oct. 29 (FOX)

Game 5*: Oct. 30 (FOX)

Game 6*: Nov. 1 (FOX)

Game 7*: Nov. 2 (FOX)

 

*Game played if necessary

 

Our last game is October 2nd, and we probably will not have to use our top starters to secure our spot in the playoffs. That means our schedule may look like this:

 

Season ends OCT 2

 

ALDS: 6, 7, 9, 10 & 12

 

2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, 1 game

 

 

ALCS: 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22

 

One day off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

 

WS: 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, Oct 1, 2

 

Two days off before series, then 2 games, day off, 3 games, day off, 2 games

 

The schedule shows that we may need only 3 starting pitchers at times and 4 at other times. At no point will we need 5 starters. With so many days off, we may not need a deep pen.

 

Most playoff teams go with 11-12 pitchers.

 

Could this be our pitching staff and first series roster?

 

SP1 Price

SP2 Porcello

SP3 Buchholz?

SP4 ERod

Closer Kimbrel

RP2 Uehara

RP3 Ziegler

RP4 Ross

RP5 Tazawa

RP6 Pomeranz

RP7 Abad (Scott? Barnes? Kelly? Wright?)

 

Assuming 11 pitchers, the rest of the roster could be...

 

C (2)- Leon, Hanigan? (Vaz or Holaday?)

1B (1) HanRam

2B (2) Pedroia, Holt

3B (2) Shaw, Hill

SS (2) Bogaerts, Hernandez

LF (2) Benintendi, Young

CF (1) Bradley

RF (1) Betts

DH (1) Ortiz

 

I still would prefer one extra arm over a bat.....just in case.

[moonslav59]

I still would prefer one extra arm over a bat.....just in case.

 

I can see the redundancy in carrying Holt, Hernadez & Hill, especially when you consider we should not need to replace any of our IF'ers by PH'ing (except maybe Shaw vs a LHP) or for defense (except maybe HanRam at 1B, but with who? Shaw from 3B?)

 

I thought of maybe having Moncada as PR'er, but he's still too raw to trust on the basepaths.

 

I think 7 RP'ers is plenty, since one will be Pomeranz, who can come in early and go 6-7 innings, if needed.

 

We'll have 3 games off before our first playoff game, so everyone should be more than rested to start out. Then we..

 

play 2

off 1

pay 2 (if needed)

off 1

play 1 (if needed)

off 1 (or more, if series ends early)

play 2

off 1

play 3

off 1

play 2 (if needed)

off 2 (or more)

play 2

off 1

play 3

off 1

play 2 (if needed)

 

I can't see but two time when everyone won't be available out of the pen- the two times we play 3 games in row.

 

[moonslav59]

I know some of you are not big fans of WAR. I know their are issues and concerns. I have some of my own, but for argument's sake, let's use comparative positional WAR to see where are strengths and weaknesses are.

 

Position Season WAR ranking (2nd half ranking)

 

RF: 1st (2nd)

DH: 2nd (6th)

CF: 5th (14th)

1B: 6th (5th)

SS: 7th (19th)

LF: 9th (13th)

2B: 11th (9th)

C: 13th (15th)

3B: 25th (26th & below replacement player level)

 

SP: 9th (1st)

RP: 9th (11th)

 

Clearly 3B is our biggest issue, with RP'ing, C and LF as possible areas for improvement this off season. The retirement of Papi puts the DH position into the spotlight as well.

 

The good news: our top prospects, Beni, Moncada and Devers all play a position of need (3B and LF). Devers is too far away to influence 2017, but perhaps Sam Travis, Pablo, Shaw, MOncada or Hernandez can carry us at corner IF until he's ready. A Mix of HanRAm, Young and others might lessen the hit we take at DH with the loss of Papi.

 

Our rotation might not need "fixing" at all, as they have been the best in MLB over the second half. If we bring Buch back, we should have the depth we need. That leaves the pen as one big area of need. It won't be easy to replace Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. Carson Smith may help some, but picking up two decent RP'ers seems like the right thing to do.

 

One other solution might be to sign Justin Turner. He's a decent fielding 3Bman, soon to turn 32, and coming off 3 straight .800+ OPS seasons. I know that would further block Moncada and maybe Devers, if we sign him to over 2 years, but I'd prefer doing this than signing a DH. We might be able to later trade Moncada, Devers, Shaw or Pablo due to having him on the roster.

 

[Nick]

I know some of you are not big fans of WAR. I know their are issues and concerns. I have some of my own, but for argument's sake, let's use comparative positional WAR to see where are strengths and weaknesses are.

 

Position Season WAR ranking (2nd half ranking)

 

RF: 1st (2nd)

DH: 2nd (6th)

CF: 5th (14th)

1B: 6th (5th)

SS: 7th (19th)

LF: 9th (13th)

2B: 11th (9th)

C: 13th (15th)

3B: 25th (26th & below replacement player level)

 

SP: 9th (1st)

RP: 9th (11th)

 

Clearly 3B is our biggest issue, with RP'ing, C and LF as possible areas for improvement this off season. The retirement of Papi puts the DH position into the spotlight as well.

 

The good news: our top prospects, Beni, Moncada and Devers all play a position of need (3B and LF). Devers is too far away to influence 2017, but perhaps Sam Travis, Pablo, Shaw, MOncada or Hernandez can carry us at corner IF until he's ready. A Mix of HanRAm, Young and others might lessen the hit we take at DH with the loss of Papi.

 

Our rotation might not need "fixing" at all, as they have been the best in MLB over the second half. If we bring Buch back, we should have the depth we need. That leaves the pen as one big area of need. It won't be easy to replace Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. Carson Smith may help some, but picking up two decent RP'ers seems like the right thing to do.

 

One other solution might be to sign Justin Turner. He's a decent fielding 3Bman, soon to turn 32, and coming off 3 straight .800+ OPS seasons. I know that would further block Moncada and maybe Devers, if we sign him to over 2 years, but I'd prefer doing this than signing a DH. We might be able to later trade Moncada, Devers, Shaw or Pablo due to having him on the roster.

 

 

I think LF will be fine with Beni there full season. Obviously we're settling with Shaw at 3B. I'm not sure where the upside is with his skill set.

[moonslav59]

I think LF will be fine with Beni there full season. Obviously we're settling with Shaw at 3B. I'm not sure where the upside is with his skill set.

 

we're "settling" this year, but I'm not sure about next. Maybe Pablo and his salary will prevent us from trying to get another 3Bman this winter, especially when two of our best prospects, Moncada and Devers, play 3B and would be blocked if the deal is long.

 

Shaw's a much better fielder than HanRam at 1B, but his bat is not even good enough to play 3B, let alone 1B.

 

[sk7326]

we're "settling" this year, but I'm not sure about next. Maybe Pablo and his salary will prevent us from trying to get another 3Bman this winter, especially when two of our best prospects, Moncada and Devers, play 3B and would be blocked if the deal is long.

 

Shaw's a much better fielder than HanRam at 1B, but his bat is not even good enough to play 3B, let alone 1B.

 

 

He was a 2 win player this year. If he is the worst position player you have, life is good. I think if Sandoval is healthy 3B-1B becomes an interesting 3-man jobshare

[Nick]

He was a 2 win player this year. If he is the worst position player you have, life is good. I think if Sandoval is healthy 3B-1B becomes an interesting 3-man jobshare

 

I wouldn't be doing back flips over 25th in mlb.

[d-money]

I want home field advantage but texas and the Guardians keep winning. We likely might face the Guardians or the rangers on the road.

[moonslav59]

He was a 2 win player this year. If he is the worst position player you have, life is good. I think if Sandoval is healthy 3B-1B becomes an interesting 3-man jobshare

 

I'm not sure the 1.8 WAR that fangraphs has for Shaw is the "real Shaw". He's got 0.2 WAR over the second half of 2016. In the context of his last years in the minors, I'm inclined to lean towards thinking "the real" Shaw is the second half Shaw not the first half Shaw, or at best someplace in between or a strict platoon player.

 

.781 2012 (2nd half) AA

.736 2013 (all season) AA

.954 2014 (1st half) AA

.752 2014 (2nd half) AAA

.674 2015 (1st half) AAA

 

.813 2015 (2nd half) MLB

.788 2016 (1st half) MLB

.685 2016 (2nd half) MLB

 

I always had doubts about Shaw. A .795 AA OPS in 870 PAs is nothing special for a corner IF'er. A .715 AAA OPS in 668 PAs is scary. Together, the sample size is over 1500 PAs with about a .760 OPS, but he's been below .760 in 5 of his last 8 half seasons.

 

[southpaw777]

I wouldn't compare our big 3 B's to Ellsbury. Jacoby had the 5th to 7th best OPS on the team before he left, and he only really had one big year.

 

I do think we may end up losing one of the three, as you point out, but I'm hoping some new fresh young players will be ready to take his place at a much lower cost (Beni? Moncada? Basabe? Travis? Dalbec? Ockimey?)

 

Exactly. Thats the juggling act GMs have every year. Who to go with and who to let go. Its a balance of salaries between young controllable players and guys approaching FA and their signability. Im sure they have a really good feel for who they have a better chance of signing. But bottom line is I dont believe all three will be here theoughout their arb years.